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CAD_Wedge_NC

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Everything posted by CAD_Wedge_NC

  1. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That map matches up well with climo..... tight gradient through the Charlotte area. Seen it many, many times over my 53 years. (I-85 cut-off)
  2. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I do like where we are sitting at this range..... Still a long ways to go before we can put the snow totals on the books.
  3. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That's pretty much just what the ensembles and the Euro have been trying to tell us for the past few days.
  4. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Check your soundings..... most of that is snow for even your neck of the woods.
  5. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yep, all snow event now on the GFS for western NC and Piedmont! Can't wait to see the clown maps on this run.
  6. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Who knows..... It's obviously flawed. No way my area sees over 20 inches of snow. I haven't looked at the QPF to see if it even has that much precip falling in the storm.
  7. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That's a common miller B transfer of energy to the coast. Ideally, you want that transfer to take place south of you as shown. That will keep the cold air locked in and you will not lose that fresh feed of cold air. We have had some all-snow events with a set-up like this, but those were associated with colder air masses. Most of the time in these situations, there is some degree of mixing during the storm.
  8. CAD_Wedge_NC
    We preach this every winter..... "Look at the ensembles for better long range forecasts. The Op runs will flip and flop at those longer lead times". IMO it really gives you a better idea of what the model trends are. Once you get inside of that 3-5 day window, then the operational runs become more important.
  9. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I am getting a little concerned about flying in to Chicago O'Hare tomorrow. However, I have to admit, the kid in me says "this is going to be fun".
  10. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Flying into Chicago on Sunday mid-morning. I plan to beat the changeover. Will be in town all week next week. This is going to be a big storm for those that get under that death-band and plenty of cold to follow.
  11. CAD_Wedge_NC
    31 degrees and light freezing rain. A glaze on the cars and deck.
  12. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I can't ever recall a SER with a -NAO. So, if we do have a lasting -NAO you can count that out. Also storms don't seem to trend NW at the last minute with a -NAO. Bottom line,... I'll take my chances being in the bull's eye 5 days out, if the indices are favorable.
  13. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Looks like sleet falling in Boone per webcams
  14. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Edit: now down to 26 degrees
  15. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Didn't expect to see you in here..... By the way just rain and 39 degrees.
  16. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Beech Mtn NC down to 27 degrees already.
  17. CAD_Wedge_NC
    To find the wet-bulb temperature you take the difference between the actual temperature and the dew point and divide it by 3. Then you subtract it from the actual temp. In other words a temp of 42 degrees with a dew point of 30 degrees would yield a wet bulb of 38 degrees. This is a down and dirty way of knowing what you will be able to achieve by evaporational cooling from precipitation.
  18. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That map has over a foot of snow in places that won't see anything other than a cold rain. Pathetic....
  19. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Watch wet-bulbs up stream and dew-points. That will give us a pretty good indication of whether or not the models are picking up on the cad accurately...... I still can't believe we are doing this in November.
  20. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I am down here in the foothills. Hopefully, I will escape most of the onslaught this storm will bring. Good luck to you guys higher up.... hope you get a sleet-fest instead of all that freezing rain that is currently modeled.
  21. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I am south of you by a few miles..... I am expecting about the same. Good signs for winter.
  22. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Just can't imagine that for this time of year. No way that happens..... That would require a strong continual cold air feed. This is technically a hybrid event, but in my opinion, it would take a classical event to get to these levels. With all that being said, we should look at dew-point trends leading up to the event to see how likely this will be. Right now, I am inclined to believe that it is just the NAM being the NAM.
  23. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yep, It is close to a good storm for you guys out in the far western end.
  24. CAD_Wedge_NC
    We are quick to discount the numbers that are being shown. However, if we can get the right pattern, it is plausible.
  25. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That's probably the closest you will ever come to winning the lottery.
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