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CAD_Wedge_NC

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Everything posted by CAD_Wedge_NC

  1. CAD_Wedge_NC
    The FV3's track for the storm was spot on for a week out. Almost unheard of. It did not get the thermals exactly right but hey, for it to be that close at that range is great to see. I would give it a solid A
  2. CAD_Wedge_NC
    01z RAP loves the upstate of SC
  3. CAD_Wedge_NC
    HRRR has it more west....
  4. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Nam doesn't like the foothills or western Piedmont....
  5. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Of course, if you already have snow on the ground. If you don't have a snow cover, it will be rate dependent.
  6. CAD_Wedge_NC
    A-1 sauce goes better with shoe
  7. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I was just saying the same thing
  8. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That model is only for 18 hours out
  9. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That line is not oriented in the right direction to rob us. Plenty of QPF coming.
  10. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yes it is.... I would not want to be a forecaster at the NWS in GSP today. So many possibilities to consider.
  11. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yep, just looking at soundings, it has temps just above freezing at the 700mb -825mb level last run it was right at 0C. Is it right? .... who knows at this point.
  12. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Not going to buy into that run unless other models follow suit. We are getting to the time now when the higher resolution models will be taking center stage.
  13. CAD_Wedge_NC
    It has trended south from yesterday's runs, but still playing catch-up. Don't worry, by tonight the models will likely converge.
  14. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I was thinking that this would happen, when I saw the south trends last night. That increases our chances of staying all snow, but it reduces the totals. I'll take that in a heartbeat.
  15. CAD_Wedge_NC
    It has done quite well in the past.
  16. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Then I can't explain why it would show "sleet and snow" with that sounding.
  17. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Nope, not the same. Snow requires saturation in the -12C through -17C layer. Sleet does not.
  18. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Well, that's the only way you can get sleet with that sounding.
  19. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Because you don't have complete saturation in the dendric growth zone.
  20. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I have to agree with you...... As we all can plainly see, a large part of this forum is going to be affected by this one. From over 50 years of watching the NC winter storms, I can tell you from past events that I-85 is the line of demarcation between mostly snow and mix a lot of the time. However, this is not always the case and with today's trends, I would not sleep on this one if I was in the upstate. I am not really focused on track as much as I am precip amounts. If I was in that freezing rain band, I would be really concerned. (Watch out NEGA) As GSP stated in their AFD. "once in a generation"
  21. CAD_Wedge_NC
    The models possibility ingested some bad data at 0z. Let's see what the 12z suite has in store for us.
  22. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah and snow is cold...... looks like you will be getting plenty of it
  23. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Hey look kids, it's that blue turd again.
  24. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I see that the local NWS stations are putting snow in the forecasts now: Friday Night Friday night ... A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Saturday: ... Rain and snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  25. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That could be us in 3 days don't gloat.
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