CAD_Wedge_NC

No, he is talking about late this weekend.... and I agree. This one is closer than a lot of folks think.

As an average, you want to be about 250 miles MW of a "miller A" track. if it hugs the coast and is amped up, there will be a swath of heavy snow around that distance. That's just from all the winter storms I have witnessed in the past. In some of the the colder storms, I have seen the snow line much closer to the LP center. That's just a good rule of thumb.

Stand your ground.... This is far from being written in stone. right now it's where you want it to be. Trust the ensembles more at this range. The op runs will be all over the place until 48 hours out.

Yep sure is.... Much improved.

That would be fun....

There is enough confluence already and 850's are plenty cold enough.

I could see it being freezing rain and sleet, if it comes in early enough.

850's don't support anything but rain for everybody. Could be freezing rain if it is cold enough on the ground.

Like a hurricane in the gulf...

How so, I don't see it...

"Too much suppression"... I can hear it now.

Yep, we have seen so many of these 7 day threats go up in smoke. I agree... wait until we can "see the whites of their eyes"

For the love of Heaven, don't let the bouncing blue turd start any more winter weather threads. He's bad luck...

More precip this time?

Is that the FV3??

I wouldn't worry about the moisture. Every storm we have had this season has over-performed. This one will be no exception. It may be east of us or west of us, but it will not be dry.

We will ... in about 6 weeks. Then we can begin looking forward to the Summer heat, humidity, mosquitoes, mowing grass, fire-ants, pollen, and sweating our butts off. No thank you. I prefer the winter.

If I remember correctly .... Charlotte's record low maximum is 14 degrees.

Yep, sure is. I see another storm with I-85 written on it. Maybe this time the trends are in better for those areas south of 85. Let's bring this one home.

I agree.... I think that is a real possibility. More than usual.

Yep, but it is still interesting seeing the DGZ all the way to the surface. That's some cold air...

Had that in the March 2, 1980 snowstorm. Heavy snow and a temp of 9 degrees.

Thanks Matt for posting. I have always followed your forecasts and enjoyed your internet videos. Hopefully there are some good times ahead.

Talk about an arctic front..... temps pushing 50 in Charlotte while Boone is 18 degrees. However, that is 288 hours away.

I believe that is what most folks think. "We have been fooled too many times". The pattern in the long range has looked wonderful, only to be muted as we approach verification time. It has to do with the strength of the highs dropping down being modeled too strong in the long range. I believe we will get cold, but I am a little skeptical about the big cold blasts that are being modeled at this range. I see great potential, and I will be very relieved in the next few days if it doesn't get pushed back yet again. The new FV3 has a cold bias in the long range. We have already seen that several times. Now that we know that, it will help us see more clearly. One thing I like is the fact that the Euro has a similar cold solution and the GFS ensembles have stood their ground, despite the operational runs looking like a 3 year old's coloring book. Now let's get this show started.