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CAD_Wedge_NC

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Everything posted by CAD_Wedge_NC

  1. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Thanks Matt for posting. I have always followed your forecasts and enjoyed your internet videos. Hopefully there are some good times ahead.
  2. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Talk about an arctic front..... temps pushing 50 in Charlotte while Boone is 18 degrees. However, that is 288 hours away.
  3. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I believe that is what most folks think. "We have been fooled too many times". The pattern in the long range has looked wonderful, only to be muted as we approach verification time. It has to do with the strength of the highs dropping down being modeled too strong in the long range. I believe we will get cold, but I am a little skeptical about the big cold blasts that are being modeled at this range. I see great potential, and I will be very relieved in the next few days if it doesn't get pushed back yet again. The new FV3 has a cold bias in the long range. We have already seen that several times. Now that we know that, it will help us see more clearly. One thing I like is the fact that the Euro has a similar cold solution and the GFS ensembles have stood their ground, despite the operational runs looking like a 3 year old's coloring book. Now let's get this show started.
  4. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, I was 15 years old at the time. Didn't know that I would never see a snowy winter like that again. Same applies to 1977 for the cold. This up coming pattern may just have another piece of history with it.
  5. CAD_Wedge_NC
    One thing is for sure..... we will have plenty of snow cover to the north. So, any cold air that tries to get this far down will be unabated.
  6. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Figured that might happen with the op showing some stream separation.
  7. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Good luck with that... lol
  8. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Thanks for dropping by... you are always welcome here.
  9. CAD_Wedge_NC
    If we dodge this next two weeks without a snow event in the southeast, then somebody "just ain't living right"
  10. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I can guarantee you with 100% confidence that it will never happen as shown. There is no way a 1052 Hp in the NE doesn't drive enough cold are down for a mega wedge. Temps would be well below freezing in all the CAD areas. I call BS.
  11. CAD_Wedge_NC
    It didn't fall on anything...did it?
  12. CAD_Wedge_NC
    You are right. Precip just wants to over-perform, at least while we are in this El-Nino winter. This storm was a good example of that.
  13. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That is a cool picture. We had a little less than a quarter inch of ice here. Looks like around .15-.20. Stayed right at freezing all night long. Trees are beautiful, the glaze accumulated on everything elevated. Glad it wasn't any colder. We can count ourselves lucky. Now, on to the next event. LR looks good.
  14. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I don't recall ever seeing a model forecast with highs in the single digits for my area since I have been following the models back in the early 1990's. Even in fantasy land. If this cold shot verifies, as some of the runs suggest, we will be talking about this one for many years to come. This would mean lows well below zero for a lot of folks. I know it will never happen.... is it even possible in today's climate?
  15. CAD_Wedge_NC
    It is already wrong .... we have been getting sleet and flurries on and off this morning. Upper levels are colder than what that map is showing. Maybe the model expects major warming before the bulk of the precip moves in.
  16. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Looks like a quarter of an inch of ice in our neck of the woods. I am just to your south.
  17. CAD_Wedge_NC
    What do the temp profiles look like on the Euro?
  18. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Snowing pretty good in Boone right now per web cams. Everything is white.
  19. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Can't remember a winter storm that was this close and still not know how it was going to play out. Usually we have a pretty good idea of how thing were going by now. This one will come down to surface temps and wet-bulbs tomorrow at the onset. very tricky for some.
  20. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yes, it's pretty much a lock in the Triad. You will get frozen/freezing precip. I would not rule out sleet as the predominant P-type at least during the first half of the storm. As is the case so many times it comes down to North of 85 for anything wintry. There could be exceptions with this one but that's usually the rule of thumb.
  21. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Currently 31/19. Looking for a few flakes tomorrow before the changeover.
  22. CAD_Wedge_NC
    They're waiting on the 0z suite before back peddling.
  23. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Saturday ... A chance of snow before 3pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of sleet after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night ... Snow and sleet likely before 9pm, then sleet likely between 9pm and midnight, then rain or freezing rain after midnight. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday ... Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of rain between 1pm and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night ... A chance of rain and snow showers before 9pm, then a chance of snow showers between 9pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30% I still have frozen precip in my latest NWS point and click forecast.
  24. CAD_Wedge_NC
    That was the 12z. I don't see anything about the 18z run.
  25. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, a lot of us are in that same boat. Let's get this storm to trend just a little colder so we have sleet and not the ice storm we are looking at now. GFS has my location below freezing for the entire event despite the north trends of today.
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