Are you completely ignoring the MJO? That's well-established data. We have seen modeled torches evaporate as we approach go-time. Trends are pointing to a great December. Now, all that could change, but right now, you are just being negative for the sake of disagreement.
We rarely miss a storm to the south. However, last winter it was suppression city around here. I don't think anyone realized the magnitude of last year's big gulf coast storm. Some locations along the gulf coast got more snow in that one storm than the last 100 years of snowfall combined. Think about all those snowless winters before 2025. That's more impressive than folks want to admit. It set all-time records for cold and snow in many places. I would not call last winter average when looking at the south/southeast as a whole. If we would have had just a little SE ridging... western NC would have been buried instead of coastal areas. Then everybody around here would have talked about it being an A+ winter. Guess it all about perspective.
I remember Robert's obvs posts during the 2009 snowstorm that broke a pine tree and damaged his house. He was truly one of the best. I also won't forget those late nights with Burgertime..... he still posts from time to time.
Has it ever looked like a slam dunk for southern snow at this range? C'mon man.... Look at how the pattern has changed in just the last 3 days. Who knows what December will bring. We are definitely heading in the right direction... You have to agree with that.
8 more weeks until the average temps start falling back. July and August are the worst. Bees, snakes, mosquitoes, ticks, and spiders rule the next 2 months. Who said Summer is fun?
Chilly 53 degrees this morning. Going to fire up that grill later today and char some mammal flesh.... I got a couple of grass-fed ribeyes from a local cattle farmer.... can't wait.
Look at it this way .... if it phases early and we amp up, we have wiggle room to still get a good winter storm out of it. We are actually in a better spot than if we were worrying about a NW trend.
Nope, not going to get sucked in. The ensembles aren't in agreement with the OP. At this range we should be looking at that .... not the OP run. However, the trends are encouraging.