Typhoon Tip

Perfect candidate for QC application, huh -

Not everyone - in fact ...few do - knows why

I expounded upon this exact concern. I think the original poll/question creation evinces a very superficial understanding - not just in the author, who may or may not have that limited awareness... (likely it's just poorly written). But I do find that elsewhere in society. A very linear and limited understanding in the general civilization, so much so that it doesn't lend to much 'intuitive' feel for crisis and thus they seldom come across as having that - let alone a more scienced perspective. It's incumbent upon the scientific community to learn a means to communicate the secondary ...nth degree causal feed-back depths that occur in complex systems in nature. This better sort of PR tact in bringing the perils of CC to the public eye was badly performed in the early days of this... The scientific tact was an attack on ways of life, ways of life multi-generation established and wholly dependent upon fossil fuels, both indirect and directly ... It just set the opposition table; not the understanding. It's been easy for Big OIl's counter-campaign, really, because of it. Now, denial itself is multi-generational.

"They also found that the more global warming a model simulated, the higher the likelihood was of abrupt shifts happening. At 1.5°C above average preindustrial temperatures, the target limit set by the Paris climate agreement, the researchers found that 6 out of 10 studied climate subsystems showed large-scale abrupt shifts across multiple models." https://phys.org/news/2025-07-abrupt-climate-shifts-global-temperatures.html

nailed the temperature on Christmas morning with that

The present satellite loop over the panhandle of TX looks and behaves remarkably similar to a TUTT

uh... not sure I was being skeptical of either solution. I was just noting the differences - although I'm not sure the +AO connotes a cooler regime in New England, should a more GEFesque solution pervade, but I'll stop shy of really digging into that. Both models (academically) suck giant donkey balls at that range so the whole bringing it up was just for muse. The teleconnection spread is neutral in scalar field values, neutral during a time of year when the correlations are not that great to begin with. Which means, between that kind of vagueness, and these operational runs being diametrical in their implications, and the fact that they suck at that range anyway... it all means flip a coin. anyone into the petty squabble between warm and cool is not taking any trophies for the time being. Brian's probably right. Go CC footprint and throw a few fronts through it. Probably AN but not hugely so. There may be a heat wave in Aug

This is fun ... check out the N Hemisphere rendering at 360 hours by the the GFS ( oper) left vs the ECMWF right. It's like +2 SD AO vs -2 SD AO Yet both try to make it cold here

It depends. In simple terms, the peril is not measured in merely "cooling" or "warming" It is a result of d(cooling)/dt or d(warming)/dt ( those mean 'rate of change' with respect to change in time ) #1, The vitality of the natural order of this planet cannot be realized if either a 2-4C cooling, or warming of that same magnitude, were to take place at a rate of change that exceeds species adaptation capacity. d(cooling)/dt > than d(adaptation)/dt = adaptation failure. Here's an example of this in geological history: https://phys.org/news/2025-07-fossils-earth-famous-extinction-climate.html Biological science has already defined a current mass extinction is under way. Goes by Holocene, even Anthropocene extinction event - the latter, because while others are cleverly denying, science has already mathematically proven that human activity, ranging from profligate resource sequestration ... annexing habitats that probably even morally shouldn't belong to us, and Climate change, ALL, are causing species to disappear at orders of magnitude greater than the previous archeologically defined rates that were associated with stable Earth-states. #2, Humans are perhaps the most adaptable organism known to this world. Our capacity for innovation is why. The fact that we live and thrive everywhere on the planet, regardless of specific ecologically defined region, evinces that. We do so, because we can. We invent the means. However, if #1 fails ... it is not abundantly clear that innovation will be able to "invent our way out of this crisis" - so to speak. Maybe we will. Maybe we won't. But that is an evolutionary gamble. That's the whole crisis. Not just whether the temperature is rising or falling. The question of cooling or warming is less useful without that deeper frame of understanding ( just op ed'ing here for the general reader - ) Humans are at the moment still wholly dependent upon the vast known, and unknown, eukaryotic and prokaryotic biota. Not just for their (external to our) biological existence, but their robust existence. They recycle the air we breath ( and use to destroy them ) with oxygen for the combustion in our cells, and the combustion that powers civility. They replenish nutrients into the soil and seas, which eventually/ultimately supplement the foods we need. All of it. Humans cannot do what they do, not at that scales required in order to stop what comes next if critical temperature sensitive species, of either kingdom, catastrophically fail because they could not adapt in time. Perhaps there's a bit of a race implied there. A gamble really is the best word. A really, really fucking stupid gamble. Because it's betting some eases of living pay back against extinction. Those that deny or argue against CC ... really don't understand that. They don't because they don't understand the premise farther above - one that is proven to really already have begun. It is thus far more logical to cease and desist activity that will cause stressing the pan-dimensional health of 'Gaia' (for lack of better word) beyond the point of adaptation. Until such time as compensating technological recourse' exist and are proven successful at mediating the health of an entire planet (Kardashev 1 civilization - We're not there yet) by alternate means, it is entirely academic what needs to be done.

It's interesting for me ... ...just eyeballing the data over at climatereanalyzer.org's interface ... I've noticed this in the past and this above is reminding me. There seems to be a vague, albeit non-zero, positive correlation coefficient among the various years of the aggregate graph. Namely, a downward trend 'tendency' shared among them, around the last week of Junes through the first week's of Julys. Then, most years resume an upward result that arcs over an apex during the last week of July and first week ( ~) of August. The latter is understandable and intuitive. But why there'd be this subtle tendency to offset seasonal rise around July 1 ... it may be just sample size related, true. I mean there's only 20 or so years out of the last 2,000,000 presented. Ha. Perhaps it is about as interesting as it is subtle, then. It might interesting to see the deeper historical sample size. Oh ... just as an after thought - maybe even obvious? The southern polar contribution in the solar "step latitudes" where the sun briefly dips below the horizon ( not from Earth's rotation, but because of the geometry of it's revolution around the sun), might be related to that. In that 10 or so day period ... there's say, a 'shock' proficiency of energy loss in that ring latitude. The sun then reappearing during the day, however feeble, is enough to add decimals back, and that no longer offsets the total and the previous dynamic resumes.. Heh, as another after-observation ... there's a tendency at the other end, last week of Dec's, to see a trend up. That may be the mirror effect in the other direction.

There's a pretty interesting finding wrt our neighborhood super giant ... https://phys.org/news/2025-07-hidden-neighbor-astronomers-companion-star.html

Probably this was temperature nadir this week. With evaporating moisture adding back to anomalous dry DPs that arrived recently ... more WV is like a thermal battery at this time of year. As the days shorten later in August, this can be offset by dew deposition but it's too early in the season for that. There'll be dew tonight but it won't ring out the WV in time prior to sun up etc... Heat wave later in the week? Heights certainly correlate, but as usual the 2-m products are at the bottom of the potential range. Except for Friday.. woof. The front my be too aggressive for CNE but not a pistol to head forecast either. The geopotential height medium appears subtly to hesitate the receding after Thur-Fri period... This may be the beginning of a trend to retard the frontal suppression - we'll have to see. It's the time of year for that sort of correction. But out there in the extended, the EPS is very bullish on a deep -2.5 type SD anomalous SPV up there over eastern Canada ... The GEFs is more seasonally compliant on that... while the operational runs of everything are as usual, deeper than their respective ens means. So there's some relative moving error potential on that.

There's blocking at higher latitudes over the western Aleutian arch and also up over the western Beaufort Sea, but that's far away. It is unclear in summer wave scaling if that would be much of an exertion on the circulation mode over eastern N/A's mid latitudes ... Meanwhile, the NAO is rising positive - though telecon correlation in summer gets rather vague. Right now the EPO and PNA are flatlining neutral, making any signal utterly not there either way. I sense these operational runs - which are exhibiting typical summer bad continuity out in time - are about as useful as shitty toilet paper. Just go back two runs in the GFS and it's different hemisphere. As we've noted many times in the past ... these deep vortices/SPV's in the late mid ranges tend to de-amplify in time. True in winter or summer. I don't know, it seems to me we've been down this end summer in the middle of summer routine before, and routinely these haven't occurred. The onus is on one of those to actually verify.

I think I love summer ...but I also love big synoptic winter storms. I want those, evenly. I don't much care for winter if it is 40/20 every day in a nuclear holocaust setting -

they're responding to the sense that it is cooler than it was, being their sole trigger

heh... you're responding to 'if pixels then plug it' posters. i mean you know that anyway, just sayn' there's not much objective analytical effort there. see blue ( or red if it's the other season)? it gets pasted in -

Unlikely to verify obviously, but Jesus look at that

I suggest it is true ... At least intuitively so - a more advancing/sophisticated corroborative science not withstanding. It aligns well with faster hemispheres that occur as a result of increased gradient associated with CC. More over, this is reproducible observation, folks. I mean we spend all this time with deep statistical comparisons with mid last century longer termed teleconnectors .. trying to find secrets that no one has. Yet from what I'm reading ... no one considers CC enough and or blinking light limits that are materializing now. Can't build expectations based upon the former - not nearly as much so. I've been snarky - admittedly - in recent post with drive-by pot shots ... more for funniness that those who engage in the practice of course don't see the humor. HAHAHA. Seriously though, when joked to just take the last 10 years, average them, and call it a day for temp and precip bias expectation... mm, unfortunately there's more than a mere modicum truth to it. And the why is rooted in the gradient soaked hemisphere. When there's more non-hydrostatic lines demarcating the polar field from the subtropical field, that physically/deterministically speeds up the flow. That does a few things.. But the mains are: faster flow alters the wave frequency; telecon reliance takes a hit because though the correlations are clad, they change faster than the correlation can be realized. This casts an illusion of chaos but's really that the patterns are changing almost as fast as a cold wave synopsis gets underway ( for example), and vice versa. This is why part of the climate reporting, globally, is complaining about dramatic short term changes. It's because the increased speed of wave propagation at planetary scales. This then causes non-linear and linear resonance break down. Think of it as less positive interference. As an aside/anecdotally ( so taken with a grain - ), this is causing a gutting of the "middle class" Less standard model cyclones in lieu of weird events that gets us more or less in the range of seasonal snow - which is also a delta climate metric, so it's silly to think of seasonality if based upon 1980 ... We seem to get more 20 to 30" events making up seasonal totals though. We get nickle dimes by accident, or the big historic wild bombs, otherwise, we're yawing between deep cold and balmy thaws in less time. This' phenotype' winter has been reproducible regardless of PDO this, or ENSO that, are AMO(AO/NAO/EPO) derivatives, solar belches or opposite house birth signs. The variant behavior is dominating despite all those.

Very good 'plain English' written article containing veracious principles of Meteorology and climate, from (surprisingly) CNN source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/20/climate/summer-of-flooding

I believe we are at 3 heat waves official on the summer when now including last week? I wasn't here last week but I saw two or three back-to-back days on NWS main page with Advisory graphics. Mustn't of been too bad otherwise there'd have been more news coverage. Heat of some sort is slated synoptically for later this week. This is impressive in the teleconnectors as a short but potent heat burst potential, however... the operational guidance are interestingly suppressed with the polar jet relative to normal latitude ...draping a fast ablative flow from Montana to Nove Scotia with ample S/W's rippling along. If so, would to spark daily MCS that turn right most likely ... fabricating boundaries that disrupt what would otherwise be something more similar to the heat wave we experienced around the end of June. This is nuance in nature and wouldn't really be indicative in the teleconnector spread, which is a static -PNA through late next weekend, within which there's an impressive negative EPO interval. This shows up as cascading/digging along the Pac N/W of the continent...sending an impressive + height signal E of 100 W. The fast flow across S Canada limiting the ridge's ability to balloon to 50 N is what's stopping the heat ( potentially...) from getting E of the Lakes. It can happen and satisfy/fit inside of the -PNA/-EPO circumstance. So we'll have to see. Right now the highest heat looks to be packed back W-S of here, with perhaps more marginal heat wave conditions evolving NE of Pittsburgh - which can change..

yeah this is it. -the instagram meme i saw too. veracity notwithstanding.

Road trip to the state of "Militiagan" lost my sister and my mother in the same year recently so family reunions are higher on the kin priority these days. my company furloughed ( no work of two weeks ) anyway, so used to the time to do the 'Zoo and Lake Michigan and stuff. see fam

it's instagram, so perhaps if not likely to be untrue, but it stated boston was on track to set the 'most humid summer ever' record.