Typhoon Tip

Ha ha ha, Weatherwiz

The sun won't be denied though. Even if the ambient temperature is held into the upper 40s ... when the wind is light and the sky is open, the sun has a way of offsetting that significantly. Sometimes it helps to compare against the mirror season to put sol into perspective... This is the same sun as ~ August 24th today, and August 19 by this weekend.

Ummm

still was 36 here with just a subtle amount of frost on the top of the car though. None in the lawn and so forth, no, but exposed metallic surfaces at 36 ? heh Kinda feel that has to stop before the seasonal gravity well has truly been escaped. It's like the Voyager I ... even though it is beyond the terminal shock boundary ... until passes through the interstellar La Grange point it still technically in the sun's outer tentacles. haha ... oooo k Anyway, the reason I muse about it is because this f'n -EPO is for real. Hate it. The overnight runs leaned colder again, loading S-SE Canada with neg anomaly ... I think we're gonna have to risk some frosty mornings this weekend. We really/probably should be on the other side of that 2 to 3 day window and then we'll be at last seasonally released. somethin' like that

and the sun is hot! It always feels warm of course but this light/no wind scenario under 100% open sky, that sun is like sitting in front of an emitter of a microwave oven

somewhat rare phenomenon this morning ... the bona fide 0% cloud at pan-dimensional scale

That's a local yokel favorite "hang out" for suicide ..there, and testing gravity through the 70 foot of draft under the university ave bridge. The bladed rocks at the bottom make "absolution" a certainty.

Floods are interesting to observe first hand. Objects et al sticking out of water like they have no business being where they are. It's not unusual as your driving by, you look over your shoulder to see a playground swing set and its attached slide jutting out mid way up. A repurposed oil-drum painted green being used as a garbage can nearby. What is it about playgrounds and ball parks - they always seem to be laid out right next to some innocuous slow moving stream on the other side of a brambled row of shrubbery, just beyond the outfield's chain-link fence. It's like the settlers might have surveyed the land back whence and realized a flood control issue and thought, 'Well, what the hell else are we gonna to do with the land?' Typical white man ... instead of just leaving it be, they create a rec center out of the natural setting - 'cept... said Nature didn't get that memo during wet springs. Scale that up and obviously we're talking about a whole different dimension of gawk affect. Like... the Merrimack River in May, 2006. Mother's Day weekend, in short order a stalled cut-off low pumped some 3 or 4 month's worth of rain into the head region up in the Whites after a respectably hefty snow year was still trying to unburden itself down the water shed. Wow... arresting. The overflow at the Tyngsborough dam just up the way from UML has about a 20 ft draft over the crest to the crag rock below, that latter more typically dried out and exposed on a typical August afternoon. It also demarcates the beginning of the aqueduct that runs immediately parallel to the original river basin from that point about a mile to a main gate that rejoins the river just east of the University Ave bridge - it's nearly 50 feet deep at that point. It was originally used to power the Mill industry during the latter gilded era and early industrialization's invasion of the Merrimack Valley known as Lowell's Boote Cotton Mills. There was flood in ( I think 1937 ) ... The 2005 event may have come close to 90th percentile of that. I'm not sure... but both overwhelmed that control system. The water in 2005 flowed over top the dam to such an astonishing altitude that it became nearly laminar over the top. 20 foot draft below that crest and the water above and below the dam became nearly not above nor below the dam. After having been on or around the campus for 4 or 5 years through the late 1990s ... to then go back and see that sight was ... you just stood there wide eyed.

There could be early heat S of 45 N as far NE as Chicago later in the month after we get past/exhausted that -EPO cold load here in the foreground. interesting. The telecon spread is beginning to enter the less statistically significant warm season ... but, the AO(epo/nao) appear to rapidly neutralize to N/S standard deviation really by the end of this week 1. After that, the PNA is meandering meaninglessly above and/or below 0 SD itself which amounts to neutral. I see the zonal tendency to the field still hinted in the cinema out in time between the Date meridian and California over the Pacific... I wouldn't be shocked if we see a low amplitude (spatial ) warm SW release in over the last 7 to 10 days of the month. Zonal tendencies also tend to precede ridging and then sure enough, the long range does show a ridge between Hawaii and the WC ... concomitantly, heights fall over the Great Basin.

Are your lilacs leafing out? I've had the unfortunate reality of having lived at this address now 7 or 8 years longer than I had originally envisioned of my future life ... and over the course of the extended stay I have observed lilac bloom behavior as getting early and earlier every year. Right now, the leafs are young but unfurling, and there are adolescence bouquets emerging too. This may be the earliest yet What can I say ...I'm a nerd. For some reason I notice things like that and they stick to my memory like Rain Man

In fact, any day this week that ends up more sun than clouds ...with winds light while the deep, life-heat suckin Labrador death air doesn't invade inland, probably goes a 1-3 ticks above machine numbers. Also, that cold raw rain with east drill wind scenario on Thursday has been attenuating. The GGEM fails its arrival altogether at this point. Attenuating systems happens in the guidance anyway ( for unrelated whatever reason - ) but combining that tendency with the sun homogenizing the ambient hemisphere ... those larger scaled wave events are all suspect.

Pine is yellow. That yellow resin on exposed surfaces in mid spring is typically pine. Y'allz living up in dem dar wooded hills with dem other bango twangers, you probably already know that but just sayn'

The global models seem to be caving to seasonal forcing. The earlier synoptic complexion from a few days ago drove the 18th - 24th into orchard failure cold wave but so much of that has eased since then that what's implicated now may only be marginally damaging if at all, spanning fewer days as well. I still expect some cool anomalies to pervade S-SE Canada, draped perpaps as far down as IND-DAY-PHL type latitude ( more N of course...) but the scale and degree of the -EPO driven interlude cutting into spring vibe as though back to early March is all but gone at this point. Look at the 00z operational Euro's 850 mb layout at 12z on the 22nd, and compare it to 12 hours later - sun is embarrassing that air mass with that modulation at 850, a classic seasonal forcing ending winter whether winter wants to end or not. The original outlook from a few days back was not doing this, either. It's interesting that the models suddenly do so now.

We green up this week... Some of that is already obvious, with shrubbery leaf out and flowers. Lawn/fields are green. But by this time next week I would expect larger stemmed species to at least be sitting on the edge of their bed. The Norway buds will be swollen if not cracked. Red maple were hinting their spring hues last week but have since fully flushed. Closing the book on the mud season chapter. Big motivator in green up is that first week's worth of days keeping the night above trigger temperatures. Can't be car top frosting every morning, or the sun powered afternoon nape days are fake and the foliage knows it. It will slow things down.

MAV is 73 at BDL and 70 at ASH Mid April sun, forcing an air mass such as this, should bust machine numbers somewhat on the cool side. That's typical of spring transition season - MOS/machine products tend to cap the T ~ 1 to 3 F lower than actual. I've always wondered why that is. It seems it's always been that way. Anyway, light d-slope under 850s around +5C and ceiling coverage going to nil is a bud buster on April 15

https://www.noaa.gov/news/last-month-was-earths-warmest-march-on-record It'll be interesting to see if April does this ...

A lot of this isn't novel ... but I'm particularly interested in the statements surrounding the oceanic C02 --> 02 possible collapse https://phys.org/news/2024-04-scientists-spain-alarm-ocean.html

...and apologies for the seemingly dystopian bias but it is what it is. All that stuff Bluewave mentions are problems that are technologically soluble - hence the race. And again ... I believe technology has to solve this, because the other solutions are just untenable - Also, I very much agree with Don that mitigation is the shorter route to salvation - in fact, it's the only route if one can project the problem into the future logically. You cannot merely adapt to a burning barn. Sending the planet into an uncontrolled accelerating hot house makes that metaphor apropos, unfortunately. In other words, adaptation only works within a range that this CC thing will easily burst well outside of. Part of mitigation is both behavioral, and technologically assisted working together. I just read and hear this idea of the native adaptability of the human species ... .yeeeah, that's one of those bargaining statements that is both true and untrue - offering a 'stay of execution' that belays accepting the truth. Particularly in the extended consequential context of CC going on unrestrained and indeterminably. You'll get to a point where you can no longer adapt. This stuff is academically obvious, frankly.

Not really ... What I "want" ? No, that is beside the point. What needs to happen, that is the point I was trying to make - however well, notwithstanding. We cannot sell CC mitigation and/or correcting tech and policy to the highest bidder. The virtue cannot be in profit. It has to be in recognition of the problem at a personal level that triggers flight or fight, unfortunately. Humans don't seem to 'believe' urgency unless it appeals that way. And since we cannot taste or touch, see or smell CC ... etc etc Anyway, I like that 2nd bold statement there. I've often thought to compared this to a race between making technology accessible to everyone as a means to survive, prior to time running out. That, and tech also directly fixing the problem. Maybe that is the entry into Kardashev 1 civilization ranking - when a species gets to this brink but then succeeds. Sci Fiction's "Star Trek" provided matter-energy exchange replication. Not meaning to imply that is relevant to objective reality by mentioning. Just an example of tech 'winning the race'. All the essentials become essentially free... etc etc, and there's no basis for greed. That's unlikely in our life time... But out there, some where there probably is in the infinitum of cosmic probabilities, societies that have succeeded.

yeah, nothing markets popcorn and coke-able severe events like this ...

All operational models now essentially on the same page for p.o.s. next weekend. yay

Mm... surviving CC cannot be about money. In fact....that's entirely trivial, really. Money is but a human invention. I mean... not you per se ( I realize what you were after above and it is not your problem - ). The 'societal machinery' is autopilot-attempting to mediate everything through the lens of dollars and cents - but unfortunately ... the natural order is 100% mutually exclusive to that invention. Money is internal to the 'human bubble,' a delusion in the sense that it's ability to solve problems is not what it seems because humans have a tendency not to see beyond the boundary. The human construct bubble has served a very good purpose. There's no question. It's the ( sorry, gross cliche incoming...) threads in the fabric of civilization. It's what creates our human cooperative cloth. It allows the primitive tribal 150 member "entrusted" model of antiquity, to function at scales of population that are so large in scalar numbers that it's impossible for even the finest polymaths to completely wrap their heads around the far reaches of such population numbers. It's the collective belief in the "intrinsic" value of money that keeps people operating in relative unison, well beyond the periphery of the tribal size. Noah Harari's "Sapiens" - is vert a good read. He finely describes the historical significance of economic emergence on large scales, and why-for how it assisted transforming humanity's primitive tribal states ...ultimately into countries ( spanning some 7 to 10,000 years to do so), replete with all the modern amenities that allow both population to explode to billions over ...but extending the life expectancy by decades. Except along the way( oops ), humanity repeatedly demos its willingness to die by it. And I'm not talking just about CC in the current context, either. Wars are fought over it sponsored by state, and individuals act out antisocially for take. If we make decisions designed to ameliorate CC's certain dilemmas based upon it? Doesn't seem to project very well. It may be that humanity doesn't otherwise know how. That may be so. But tough shit. Adaptation and mitigation mean nothing if mass-extinction fractures critical connections between inextricably codependent nodes of "Gaia" ( for lack of better word). The self-correcting super structure no longer corrects. Pull enough 'keystone relationships' out of that web, and life cannot be supported. While people are trying to figure out how to pay for CC?

Might get a couple ...three hours of relative improvement SE of say HFD-CON. Satellite appears to be aligned with the NAM's thinking of low ceiling RH (ie 'dry slot' ) punching N, rapidly overtaking the morning.

Wondering if the -EPO has legs during week 2 though. Yuggly!

OT ...when I was young, the isobaric gradient on weather charts was always 1008, 1012, 1016. Whether displayed in weather books, or on the evening weather reports, that seemed to be a standard interval = 4mb. When did this change and why? I'm sure there's a "reason" that it is absolutely necessary (), but I wonder if it's "really" just because graphics tech is advanced enough to make for dramatic looking weather products for sale. What do I know. When I was young in this business ... I had a pretty good handle on wind just by the familiarization I had evolved over the year using the 4 mb differential. I'm sure I can adapt and probably should have by now but it's annoying when everything looks likes 50 mph rest state velocity wind must be carrying on.