Typhoon Tip

He's like Ineedachill pill when it comes to snow. Both of them 'em are so out of control jazzed at all times for their respective interest area of weather, that there's no filtration of analytics at first bearing witness to some chart; they just autopost it like this guy as though it's 'totally possible'

Yeah... "daily" thunderstorms sounds like something that seldom occurs here... The models may show that from 7 days out but what you're more typically going to observe is one day of it. After which it shifts south or southeast and we're watching trains of convective complexes from eastern OH to central NJ. Maybe a renegade shower over White Plains NY.

The taconic hills with their 2000' ridge lines ?

I know... Speilberg might have been on to something -

LOL ...that's one way to gentrify ... "yeah, no problem - full public access"

Interesting... one of my besties from college has a summer cattage down there. Not sure if it is the bay or atlantic side, but he's waxed nostalgia about rafting a river with the tides. Huh, wonder if it's one in the same - like it's a known thing.

I dunno ... I think the models are overly sensitive ( physics ) maybe. Typically when you exceed 590 heights in a bona fide ridge node you have suppression... DVM stabilizing ...that's part of the feed-back in the synergistic heat model... some degree ( no pun intended ) of that happens in all warm ridges regardless of whether they go over the top or not. Anyway, it just seems either the ridge has to pancake some, or these models are going to be wrong with all their junk. In fact, there's some appeal there like they've been confusing the coastal heat trough with a front... Like it 96-100 producing a 'thermal low', and then the models start propagating the trough axis like it was a cold front. wrong -

The GFS and GGEM actually wiggled warmer at 500 mb in the Sun -Wed ... tad more robust and resitent. The surface seems like it might be negotiable with this. The GGEM roasts Wednesday but the GFS fronts us despite building heighs more.

yeah ..it's kind of marvel with the rocks and pools amid that fine sand. i can imagine if your a kid with a floater of some kind, how much fun that would be.

Glaciator on vis moving quickly into western Ma

wingaersheek Beach up on the N side of Cape Ann, where the Labrador current stuns all else, does that. Coved formation/pools around the beach and very long surf floor - you can walk out a quarter mile a low tide - makes for "fake" warm water there.

the only aspect stopping an 11 on the scale of 1 to 10 beach days is the fact that the water is still castration temperatures

Probably issue fatigue is setting in with some buuut, ridge early next week was a bit more robust/resistant to change in the operational GFS and GGEM 12z solutions.

nope, it was too foggy this morning

It's possible they're breaking it down prematurely on the back end of that

It'll be disappointing ... that's the forecast for winter. this overall social media's real purpose is to serve as a support group for folks that have a weird kind of emotional regulation issue vs being "dosed" by big model depictions. annnnd like the last 10 years of pounding lessons yet zero apparent retention ... next winter will succeed in giving plenty of reasons to make the aa meetings on time. haha, stick to forecasting the dosage amplitude - you'll all be seasonal heroes

I could see this becoming an anvil/mammata late afternoon from southern VT/W CT, with distant ominous thunder that devolves to just occasional orange lightning and a period of moderate decay rains. Nasty mosquito evoking weather where it's warm and sultry with lighter rain might be the biggest disaster that befalls western zones out of this when that claims the late day for them. You should probably plan to chase to see that yay

On the contrary... it's typical to dawn murky high dps with a patchwork of fog and low strata on severe days. This is in fact expected behavior. There are sunny/skylights stationary E of the topography; this is keyed into high DP air mingling with shallow nocturnal inversion resulting basically in very low level 'steam'. It's not even 8 am and no sooner the sun tips over treetops and there's rapid evap ongoing. Not just typical, it's physically obvious why this is the case, too. Our biggest limitation on the day most likely will be timing. This may evolve more across central NY/PA along that axis, with a few descrete/dangerous cells then organizing into linear segments. The better instability will be there extending down into the M/A. There's not a lot of CIN in these areas. Oriographic assisted cu features will probably take off without restraint and quickly. This does not include areas E of Albany initially. The whole synopsis doesn't bring the front through here until 2+am overnight so that E NE may not be in the party at all. May get some activity into western zones as the typical accelerating outflows organize/pool and propagates down wind and triggers/cyclic development. There may also be a prefrontal trough ... there's so little inhibition in this whole set up, that could trigger and rob down in the eastern PA/PHL/NJ area. SPC's got it pretty well covered.

https://phys.org/news/2025-06-climate-bright-red-scientists.html

southern Lakes/SNE teleconnector in full effect for tomorrow... 24 lag on the button as that one goes. Always look to Kalamazoo - in principle. I mean there's a monster squall/linear complex in the area with a smattering of super cells out ahead of it.

Well ... ha, they'll miss whether the damn things 'll form. They tend to turn right of the environmental steering, because they are in fact drawn toward the better CAPE, and that's likelier S, where the cold pooling off the ongoing convection has organized into a meso or meso-beta scaled convectively induced cold front. This lifts the environment, and the static stable layer over the top is forced to ascend to where it is no longer static, and that kicks off the redevelopment cycles there ..hence the propagation. The model physics handle that in principle. The GFS is in fact turning right ... the Euro and GGEM are driving it E through Maine. At this range, either is possible. The amount of turning right probably has some other factorization.

if you look at this loop, literally over just the last 1/2 hour or so, all of NE PA/E NY, W MA and W CT just went more sun than clouds. My guess is the warm front is mixing out. It's 76/70 here up from 73/66 and hour ago, and though we're in the clouds its noticeably jumped.

you actually beat us ... Why you sumna bish ... Yeah, judging by this cut out of WPC's "always" trustworthy never odd looking computer generated frontal tapestry ... ( haha) that we're getting the old end-around warm frontal passage - it's likely through you guys up there and we're getting quasi nut pinched down here.

Well ... what do you mean by that - the models are tracking where they see it. How do we know where that axis will be at this time. In principle, that's true. They'll pac-man along the elevated thermodynamic gradient.