Typhoon Tip

I wonder when the 'internet stalker' label gets foisted -ha. Who the f* care who said what? No one is taking any trophies away from here ...beyond some dependency for winning an accolade here and there? Okay - if that's what people really need. Maybe their "daddy" never gave enough of that. I don't know... I think Scott mentioned a relaxation in the pattern ... which has some semantic vulnerability, to which those that he has rubbed (possibly) the wrong way with his at times rather brash assessment of the tone and tenor on the forum and sober antithetic content ... (i.,e., nothing wrong with doing that!) they seem to be overreacting to said semantic points he made. Almost like a, "That's the last straw!" haha I'm a Met... by education and life long obsession to weather-related sciences. Earth and astronomy in general, actually... I can tell you, nothing Scott has posted in the past ten days, other than misinterpreted sarcasm and ribbing ... has been that far beyond merit. This thread needs some moderation like the old days of Eastern, before the "Lord Of The Flies" coup de etat -

Yup! great observation, dude. I was just commenting on the handling of the N/stream part of that era. There may be some chance for things to re-align more favorably in space and time...particularly, I was noting the need for the western ridge to really be aggressive in poking back N up the western cordillera - roughly ... D6. To state the obvious, that would help slow down the W-E (ness) of the flow up along 55 N and "maybe" just pretty-please-with-sugar-on-top phase more.

Interesting...that whole run is rife with chances, actually...

...Seeing the subsequent time intervals/handling therefrom... yeah, that's a subsumer into the Maritimes, a consequence of the N-stream being (perhaps) subtly differently handled for it's own headaches of spacial temporalities. "If If If" we are in the ball-park on this particular run ( ) ...then enters interest as to whether that N-stream interaction is correct. It's going to be a preventative or supportive... It can suppress, or..it can phase; particularly on the latter, if the backside ridge pops that much more, it will effectively "grab" any wayward polar/arctic mechanics dangling around the Canadian shield and send it south for merry go around of antics... But, that's all speculative, still in the envelope of plausibility.

Looking at this 12z operational GFS depiction for hour 144 and comparing the overall structure to the same time interval on the previous two cycles ... and tracing the events backward in time to their source/origin ... it's pretty clear there are substantial uncertainties as to what is ultimately going to get relayed off the Pacific ocean through the West. You guys are right that the ridge on the backside of the wave(s) pops rigorously (more so) than the 06z, but again,...that's the entire sort of 'interstitial' relationship between about 150 or 160 W through 120 W part of the PNA's domain/handling, controlling "weather" that happens (haha). Kidding aside, those differences ...both wrt to that and the wave mechanical power sampling, are obviously going to be key as to what sets up in the MV-MA and up the Coast later on next weekend.

People really do experiences a sense of exhilaration whenever that cinema portrays a bomb. Wow... that was fast. Instead pumping the meat, as Will oft' likes to recommend ... 'pump the breaks.' Seems apropos at this juncture. ... A little disillusionment is probably a good thing for this present era, when verification tendencies have recently trended toward LESS than the panache of D 6-10 suggestions in general. Or not ... go ahead and get our dopamine flush, only to maximize our fall if we like - up to us. I suspect people can't stop themselves, though. Be that as it may, that is D9 + and it's one run ...let's just keep that in mind, how ever difficult it is to do so. Trying to employ a dose of healthy skepticism to counter-act the drug of the models .... I don't see that general canvas of synoptic evolution out there in time as being very favorable for that 'needle thread' solution. Having said that ... needle threading means just that: in a hostile environment, getting anything to happen is an engagement of narrow tolerances, so to be far - we'll see. However, the flow initially (day 3-5) is too compressed... Heights over Florida and adjacent are lofty... and as this week's cold presses through the NP-Lakes and OV regions, it is speeding up the flow too fast for individual S/Ws... It's interesting that both the Euro and the GGEM are not seeing that, and are maintaining southern stream cohesion as they propagate what is really only a mid-range wave mechanics right through said compression. I can 'imagine' a way in which that is possible (as an offset); it may be ...the heights over Florida (used just for identification purpose - there's nothing inherent to Florida's existence) are in the process of differentiating lower, "AS" said southern stream mechanics are arriving..That sort of relay my give a faux impression that the mechanics are doing that but it's really a hidden larger --> smaller scale change if that were the case. So, we'll see where we go on modeling. Obviously...being D9 ...all this and everything governing will likely change anyway.

Yeah, the overnight numbers from CDC and CPC are in .. *my sources seem to wait until 10am the following mornings to flush those. JBenedet is right... if those tele's are any use, one should seek alternate channels for happiness and dopamine charging...ah-haha, that's the nice way to put it. Ironically, I mentioned needing a compelling reason...well - Upon even partially registering that sentiment, the typical NE sub-forum regular stops reading... But, if your eyes have come this far along these words ... this whole snow storm in November and the concomitant cold that came along and surrounded it ...it all struck me as really being in with the same tendencies we've seen since the year 2000 demarcated 'the era of the autumn snows' Will and I have expanded on this in the past ... at least for personal experience, the 1970's, 1980s and 1990s almost never snowed in October. Since 2000, almost 50% ... I'm curious what this really looks like against an expanded comparison...going back hundreds of years. It's an under-the-radar accomplishment, if (say)...in 200 years, there has never been a 20-year stint where it snowed in Octobers, 50% of the time. That's the type of conclusion that starts to push up an eyebrow or two that something is happening. Either way, regardless of exact cause of each, that is a fantastic turn of fortune for winter enthusiasts ... This year, instead of the temporal distinction of October... 'perhaps' just pushed off a month. But here's interesting aspect for me: whether it be 1986 or 2004 ... neither autumn necessarily parlayed to the ensuing winter ...

Yeah...I've noticed this lately... good point, too btw - The operational models have often at times (seemingly more so than usual) divorced from their own ensemble means and suggestions re the latter. At least in so far as the GEFs. I don't see the EPS hard numbers for the WPO, EPO... NAO. etc, but that sort of look you're pointing out, I have seen that be the case often since early November. interesting...

Interesting... I was just old enough to remember (as I loosely date myself) that era. Southern lower Michigan, Kalamazoo, in the weeks post the hyper bomb that went up west of the Appalachians ( I've extolled upon that event amply in the past...) that brought the horrific wind and snow and historic surface barometric pressure depths ... nothing happened the rest of the winter in the Great Lakes. Harvey Leonard did a presentation up at UML around 2003, discussing the dearth post that one ...and the latter February all-timer here off Cape Cod included. The consensus of the auditorium was coherent as there were a lot of uh-huh's and mm-hm's and whispered that's-right, radiating off the throng as he described 're-charging' synoptic phenomenon. What he/we/those with experience know to be true ...is really that big huge events tend to re-align the wave structure over our side of the Hemisphere and beyond; which probably more precisely to cause, it is the atmosphere in the process of reshuffling into a new paradigm that caused the storm in the first place. Bravo to Heather Archembault for taking what was intuitively known and/or suspected, and honing it's veracity via statistical inference/science. It may not be entirely obvious which indices were in flux when either bomb took place... but it is also fascinating that the Cleveland Super Bomb and the February Blizzard, were only some two weeks apart, and either could have been majestically keyed into a global event in their own rite. I have fragmented internal monologue in the past ...that there was just so much hemispheric potential that season with a modest warm ENSO actually differentiable (unlike today ...different argument/discussion) against a back-ground -AO/solar minimum frequency, that the whole thing effectively "split" ...less the Earth actually succeed in creating a Great Red Spot. But that's all fun Sci-Fi chatter... The point of this is yeah...big events do seem to herald 're-alignment' events at either the Hemispheric quadrature, or perhaps even larger, scales... And then once the new paradigm is realized, quiescence tends to ensue. Yet out here... the synoptic storm engine was able to churn out a season ender at least. I remember so vividly wondering if that would ever happen again with that house-sucker storm ... and as day after day after day turned into over a month of same sunny, light wind, slow snow pack decay, the era become like Postpartum. We did at last recoup one minor event in late Feb or early March; I almost wonder if that was like a redeveloper, and one in the same leading events. Mm. I'm gonna peruse the NCEP library on that - Those dullard days of Jan 30th through late February in 1978 ...that's really the seed of my modern day preference for nickle-dime winters, and why 1995-1996 is actually preferred over 1977-1978 in my personal favorites annuls.

Yep... there it is... the first sign that the big warm up is in trouble, if perhaps hinted. I would argue it's the second or third sign, actually, but that's complicated. But from here on, watch as said hint only grows into an ever-denied din. Until the freight train of actually verifying opposite the warm anomalies ( a stabbing cold pop chagrins ha ha) rumbles through those same dates ... At which time, the next big warm up is slated to ruin Christmas ... And around and around we go on the endless reel of imaginary disappointments. All the while... it never snows, ironically. For different reasons all together. Oy... the life and times of hapless soul whose plugged their joy dependency circuits into the vagary of the wind ... This could be a time to employ the ten-year old adage: find another hobby. We'll see... Being snarky there of course, but... if the warm-up does continues to abate? (...and that's still just a question, not a statement of fact or clad prognostic, just a question), I won't be shocked. I've stated my case for why I am not sold on it - or December being much of anything beyond very weak skill at this time. I admit that this paragraph means I'm riding the fence ...and that's good - I intend to mean just that; 50/50 in my mind. I suspect some Meteorologists are all in, some are backing down ...I'm not in refute or support respectively. Folks should try and process the following qualifier: These statements and exposed muses by back-office engineers of prognostic weather, they are always peering left or right along a spectrum of tendencies and chances. Not to knock on anyone, but constructively, I've noticed a tendency over the years in dealing with the Internet and the general population for people to often poach key words out of a turns of phrase, and then hyper-focus on that which tints said phrase to fit in with their sought interpretation. Anywho: ( (seasonal trend/model correction behavior) + Delta( EPO domain space handling) ) /2 ... don't really support the EPS... a product that is definitely not infallible at D10 to 20. It's skill isn't zero, though ...

Right ... seven days ago, he was talking about week 3 ... now, he's talking about week 2 - see how that works? But...just ball bustin' I wanna believe it - I really do... but, the warm up here in the nearer term slated for Sunday was originally, three weeks or so ago... indexed to be the same sort of big warm up to end Novie and head into December. As it came into range... we do the quick warm sector. We actually see this a lot in the spring ..ironically... where in late April, the models start flagging the season's first 10 day apocalyps... actually, come to think about it .. the models/indices start that behavior toward the end of February in years that aren't getting a late savior by a -NAO... Anyway, so as they near ... the 3 to 5 days of huge anomaly shrinks down to an 18 hour dirty warm sector and this did exactly the same thing. I need a compelling reason to assess this next series won't end up the same way. Mind you, ...I'm just going seasonal trend and owning to known model/index biases. There may be a big warm up out there... watch it be a January thaw. or whatever... I don't really have any horses in the race on this, but I'm interesting in just how relaxed the pattern will be before (I suspect) it reloads.

This is ...uh, heh, probably unnoticed but the 12z NAM has LI's down into the -2 range with a pretty significant warm push into the region Sunday. Almost wonder if thunderstorms enter the picture. why not ... nothin' else goin on. may as well hear some rice-crispies from the sky.

that "warm" air is razor gossamer thin - almost like the fake warmth you get in the climbing solar days of March. Obviously ...solar ain't part of the equation at this time of year. ...but, the thicknesses are low, and any radar that has ptype built in is over to blue most places save the south coast. Much of it probably isn't reaching the ground. Scott mentioned this like ... four days ago I think it was.

Heh... as is, not liking that deep vortex over Ontario squatting over top those Gulf/OM heights though. You know, ..this almost smacks like we are just getting too cold above the 50th parallel, too early... Meanwhile, the southern latitudes really aren't seasonally yielding ...much. But that just creates gradient saturation -

The 120 hour to me looks like a prelude to a NJ modeler but just needs a little bit more in terms of jet mechanics... Which overall is a different look entirely compared to prior cycles. The earlier runs had more southern isotach curvature/wind maxing in the TV region at 120+ but this solution seems to have finally, entirely committed to abandoning that - which may very well have been trended since yesterday ... But now, we have this weakly negative tilting deal up around Chi-town with some cyclonic surface response, albeit weakly so... end upon SE of CC a day later. Interesting to see that wave space just sort of swap out like that over the last day. As Nick and I were discussing yesterday (and still appears to be the case...) there may actually be more large --> small scale support for something in the D8-12 range. There is a less than obvious if still suggested mass-field restoration look there.. As other's also note, that's usually when/where things tend to happen, at those modulation intervals. blah blah.. seems like playing this tape for 10 years now but luckily for us, these physical properties of our world take billions of years to break down, huh ...

Sorta true for the GEFs spread, too.. Interestingly the GEFs spread has been slowly inching west over the last six cycles, but...weakening the system as it comes. It may be data sparseness ...

Essentially... it appears there is 0 consensus for next week. So, does that mean 0 storm? or, does that mean overt pessimism is automatically right - It's a really, really touch call there...

and (phew!) the GEPs ensemble mean is spread back west compared to the 00z run ... for the 5th..

Just throwin' 'nother solution into the fray... the always correct with no cause for doubt 'ICON'ic p.o.s. model has a low end warning even for the 5th...

Meh... any warm up out there is about as likely as any storm before it - But, what do we mean by warm up - there's that question too. That D10 Euro is a 9 to 12 hour skimmed warm sector in that evolution.

well, yeah ... surge, but that's a separate matter to my wise-azzing. I was ribbing about the air itself.

yup, leaning that way myself. There's a subtle index-related mass field correction signal in that 10th of Dec range. It's not hugely obvious - like a massive PNA phase reversal from neggie to posie...but, should the antecedent -EPO lay down the cold across the Canadian sheild, then the flow relax underneath...that is quasi to a similar thing. sort of complex to describe. But it is also speculative... I think if the 5th has legs at all it's going to haulin' arse anyway.

Ahhh.. not sure. Too early to tell... the AO tanked a couple weeks to 10 day ago ..or at least, started too. At least for this side of the hemisphere, the subsequent southward migration of the mean westerlies(core) means "pressing" south and into the tropics, which of course are still loaded with summer hang-over. It could be endemic to the season, or just endemic to this first run in with -AO. Unknown - I'm not sure about 'why' 2016-2017 couldn't shake the Neptune shenanigans. I recall that happening much of the time last year, too, until late February and the -NAO era began.. Presently the NAO is rising and will spread neutral positive before the weekend's over... and go patently so next week... But, we do have a falling EPO and cold load deeper in the mid range - at a conceptual basis ...rising NAO means rising heights in the Middle Atlantic /NE regions, but with the EPO falling ... that complicates the picture. If the couple decent in heights out west tucks ... in Ebonics, we be f'ed! ...If the heights and cold spread east... we end up with fast flow because it "compresses" against the opposing +NAO.

Not to be a douche ...but, not much more than any guidance saying yes or not to that event/time range - All these guidance types have been taking turns. Nick was just saying that wave spacing is an issue and he's right. I commented on that myself a while ago - the flow is festooned with S/W's, any one of which could get the job done but when the flow is fast and their hunched together (for lack of simple way to say it) they don't have time to engineer the gig ...

The hyperbolic commentary is cute in that ... how does wind "funnel" across "open ocean" - nice. But yeah, almost scary lookin' ... cold deathly N. Atlantic November witch water engulfing the land...