Typhoon Tip

And if the last three week's worth of trends can be used as an inference technique... more likely just another in a growing registry of faux pattern leads .... Amazing how many "sucker" punches.

It's a winter a pattern ... it's just not offering what folks want -

Just gonna say... after 7 straight days of 34/12 ... being over 45 in light wind and sun is a gem over-looked

Mm... sorry if this 'seems' over-the-top or perhaps overtly dramatic ... still, I'd be careful. 'Been thinking about this... you don't know that poster personally - or do you? The whole 'debate' wrt to relaxation vs warm-up vs neither ...vs [ enter interpretation ] is strikingly sophomoric to begin with, but .... is bordering on creepy internet stalker behavior ... From what I've gathered, this is a relative unknown who has set out to expose another poster as coveting some sort EPS bias. Fine, seems rather benign on the surface ... but that should have been wrapped up inside of (at most...) five heated exchanges followed the typical internet-make-out session. The Meteorologist that the extra-double top secret poster (with an equally extraordinary life, mind us...) holds a grudge against was either a ... an arbitrary target ... or far more likely b ... did something to abash them when they used to engage in the forum under a different pseudonym. (Pseudonym is the same as a pen-name/"internet handle" , for those younger, iconographic non-English communicating e-zombies who have posted resentment for ever having to read more than ten words strung together and can't fit on their slimy pathogenic phone screens... Good sign for the future of our society as we relay the torch, huh? ) One could have said "pattern relaxation" that and put any label on it and/or why ... but because one Met said EPS ... the other user, for whatever reason, has set out on some obsessive crusade to abase that Met. I almost wonder ... if this is just taking the emotional-reliance fixation neurosis to an extreme level.. and said Met is seen as someone that taints the other user's "drug" source. If that's the case... you know, you folks should think outside the box and be careful. What part of the last five to ten users of U.S. culture leads you believe this site is any different. Clearly, there are tendencies (all kidding aside) to be stem-wound obsessed with this agenda. We live in a day and age where an unsavory reality has been exposed: people need shocking uninspired reasons to act badly... Just look up David Katz .. User 24 He was an internet obsessed maladjusted nimrod that fomented paranoia in a gamer-based forum community. You don't know who this person is. I dunno, fwiw - Regardless, November ... it was very highly likely that the pattern was destined to relax closing out the month and going through December ... at some point or the other. Regardless of the source for that expectation.. ..to maintain 7" snow storm chances in between days in the teens (T.G.) beginning from Novie 20 would be excruciatingly rare.

Can someone explain "gradient pattern"

Not to jump in but if it's any help ... the difference is speed contamination. Velocity saturated flows do not do well with blocking. Deep heights over Manatoba western Ontario with a retrogade near D. Straight creates the old 80 kts everywhere deall... with sheared S/W lost in the windy maelstrom of powerful planetary scaled L/Ws.. In 1969, the flow relaxed everywhere under a west based -NAO (granted..) but it was former circumstance that allowed slow movement/retrograde structures to coalesce the way did near New England.

Looks like this run's headin' for an xmas bomb ... we'll see.

It appeared to me the Euro trended NW slightly ... the last four cycles of that model have done so - the trend I think ... for how little that's worth.. heh ... we are not likely to see a much better phase than we are already seeing? But, we could still pick up a wishy-washy ICON type deal out of this - more below. Firstly, the previous Euro trough handling, and it's pallid surface reflection, were all due east of the Carolinas, as little as two day's worth of cycles ago. As of last night, it clips CC ... So the trend is clad. Forgetting the Euro for a moment ... the flow is probably too fast to really allow a proficient phase. Stranger things have probably happened... but that speed means less time for the N/stream to get involved and bypasses. However, the larger scaled synoptic circulation gets a little steeper in a scenario where the rising PNA means more backside western ridge correction - and it can be subtle. To summarize ... the best possibility to get cold rain to maybe flip to some Holiday spirit would be for the southern stream quasi closed low/deep layer trajectory to work around a more N motion along the eastern seaboard, if 'perhaps' related to PNA adjustment. The GFS seems to already want to do this to some degree with ( ) some lesser dependable model types biting hard. Long shot but the only shot... By the way, that parallel GFS run was a down right Holiday dream for N of NYC ... There's three snows between early on the 23rd through early on the 26th... with blue air flurries in between

You mean like that 00z ICON? ... I am less familiar with the specifics on the December 2002 take a look tomorrow

Mm interesting. A little closer to phasing… It's been sort of trend by inches for several runs. But the bigger correction that I was thinking (if so) probably wouldn't come until 48 hours because it's a rapid fast flow scenario where whatever gets ejected off the pacific into the physical soundings moves quite rapidly across the continent "maybe" benefiting from a robust ridge correction in the west ... We're not there yet but this run illustrates

I could actually see this correct in the next 24 to 48 hours into a much cleaner phase if indeed the Nstream dives in more aggressively as a correction. In that model ... cold air gets entrained in the mid levels - fascinating dynamical system like you're supposed to get December go wonder I just see that all as not impossible and seeing as we've been sort of on course towards impossibility it's nice to see any possibility at all I don't know if that makes any sense. Anyway it's not usually far-fetched with such a dramatic PNA rise going on… We may just have yet to see the models correct over North America

Heh .. The problem is that in both American agencies... the CDC and CPC, the PNA is rising smartly through the next seven days That places a bit of a signal in/around early next week anyway over Eastern America I see it as possible that shortly after that wave comes off the Pacific in 48 hours+ that Western Ridge in the backside corrects towards more amplitude and if that's the case that northern stream subsequently digs into the lakes at a steeper slope; that changes the landscape a bit in a hurry

The table is set in the 0z NAM. Just need the northern stream to show up and that gets fantastic in a hurry

Parallel GFS run's shift was demonstrative.

The Euro had a +10 C 850 day in there on the 00z... I'm sure you're aware of that. One thing we always used to sort of lay-person adage: 'first it gets warm, then it gets cold; boom!' ...In a general sense, that works often enough. I'm sure you can just get stuck in a 2015 February and score all the time but that is exceedingly rare... By and large, the former adage works because it is the sensible variation of the H. Archembault correction - ... Gets warm, and to remove it, we gotta storm things up a bit... somethin' like that. So, in a holistic sense, folks should embrace pattern roll-outs and reset ... i.e., warm ups therein: they uh...gee, tend to be a requirement for cyclones for a myriad of reasons. It's all such a dopey pointless waste of argumentative time. wow

Political? Ho -man... Lil' advice... spare your self the utter insanity of trying to wade through those quagmires. Particularly in this day and age, when the internet has coagulated political islands ...schisms self-feedback empowered by merely finding other nimrods that think the same biased way they do. There's a whole sociological crisis afoot actually ...which we probably can take off topic and should from this point forward, but ... sufficed it is to say: in this era of fractured ethos across the greater expanse of culture (meaning, furthering break-downs of common social outlooks), you simply can not engage in any worthwhile intellectual quorum on the Internet wrt to politics, and all the above with comm is only part of the reason why. It's an untenable resulting complexity where vitriol can be the only goal.

I don't know who is really qualified to serve as arbiter in that debate ... but as a passive observer along the way - both sides appear to be responding to resentment and/or semantics the whole time. Now ... y'all on either side may feel more righteous and put off by that compromise ... but as objectively as I can muster, you're arguing through subjective interpretation - that never ends well. One side thinks the other has an agenda, and that annoys them, and only foments further. It's interesting. I've noticed a tendency ...over years actually ( years! ), enough so to prove it's a real phenomenon, people of the public hoi-polloi knee-jerk respond and apply suspicion of other people's intent, first, with less any analytic consideration for what is actually being said. I see it all the time, elsewhere too.. Communication via email at the office? That's an art! I work in a field that has zippo nothing zilch to do with this sort of affair, and it's the same deal. Same exact f'n thing - "Hey, Ashley, can you read this email before I make our department sound like a big azzhole?" Dimes to donuts, that email needs editing because despite all best intentions, some participle or predicate looks like a steaming winking, burning brown-eye. But these are white faces in here. Communication ... as it is scienced, is about 30% words, but ~ 70% music. The music is the intonation, along with the subtleties of a speaker's face and body expressions. This music cannot happen on the Internet. Then, missing that ... the human mind uses the imagination. Oops! Any predisposition in the reader and the imagination of said reader will be happy to construct why they think the other azzhole's intentions are... Doesn't take Hannibal Lecter to see where that ends up...

There's a semblance of anti-GFS agenda going in here this afternoon - not sure what the source/reason is for that bias against it, as it hasn't been altogether horrible this season thus far. Nailed the pancaked Southerly route on the last disappointment ahead of the touted Euro, too... Be that as is may, ...I dunno. Perhaps it's some kind of a defense mechanism to play coy to it while in reality their coveting other ideas. Either way, these solutions 12z to 18z (...06Z on the 10th may as well may as well throw that one in ) were all down right winter-like. I'm curious about these alternative solutions to the Euro... That's all -nothing to get one's knickers in a bunch. But the auto-dismissive attitude is silly. The Ukmet was a possible red flag here... It's early, and it's still technically in the shy side of mid range so time to modulate toward less or more. However, that northern stream fist has been in every GFS run regardless of the southern lead system that is contentious. It's under the radar. In this run's evolution it's going to be starved for moisture, as the southern system (probably) evacuates seaward. It is a very powerful wave mechanic though, which it has been trending. It's not like this solution came out of nowhere. Here's perhaps a novel idea... The GFS corrects toward the Euro and the Euro trophy foists...as it's eating schit because the GFS has the right idea with the northern stream and we end up with a NJ model coastal nick job. Stuff on the table.. .but I guess the "support group's" tenor isn't interested in exploring those. No solution can be ruled out in frenzied fast flow with fire-hose N and S streams whipping around in the runs.

yeah interesting question. Don't know. Just off the cuff I'd say a long, long ways back in time ...But, you know how that goes - we tend to recall the disappointments in our minds with some order of magnitude better clarity and significance ..ha. Just looking at the statistics for a white xmas or not, and it's not really favorable .. We're on average in the 50th percentile in SNE.... The odds do pick up pretty quickly looking N. CON, NH is 70 and it's over 90 in western Maine. But, white means snow on the ground. And that is only 50% ... We'd have to ask first, how often is there actually snow falling in xmas morning. That get's a lot dicier/lower odds. I think with reasonably confidence we can infer that we'd have to go back pretty far to find actual plowable snow on the 25th, back to back years.

Though I've never seen any papers that are definitive ... there was conjecture floated ... from credible sources actually regarding the planetary system reeling in a local time scale Pinatubo climate ... It erupted in June '91 in a perfect spot, too ... near the equator. It punched a high aerosol effusion content tens of miles high ... interacting with stratosphere. Global temperatures nicked downward through 1995 ... thought to be a result. Of course 1994-1995 was not a very impressively cold or snowing winter out side of (perhaps) a single one week period in February... Anyway, I've always thought it oddly coincidental that we were "enjoying" a decade long dearth of interesting anything really ...then, Pinatubo happens and a year later we started dispensing frenzied winters like pezz candies.

Lot of overall interesting individual GEFs members, too. 2/3rds of them bring at least some impact through from the southern vortex. I'm curious what the EPS members indicate... ?

That was a whopper adjustment by the UKMET ...wow. As Will mentioned, it's more GFS like. It seems the landscape of that period of time is now one of three things, the third option being new to the table. The first is the 00z Euro complete and utter ...outre universal non-event The second is that the southern stream system remains stronger and feeds back on tossing more lead s/w ridging ...which then causes it to turn left enough to clip us with cold rain... but every other couple of model solution, said cold rain flips to snow. The third is the N/stream bullying in a late subsume phase... The UKMET is partial already... and probably if that frame could go out to 168 that'd be a stem-wound bomb up there in western NS.. But, in either the GFS or UK' solutions... the N/stream brings potent instability through and would probably WINDEX the hell outta the region either way...

Wait - i thought huge squirrels meant huge winters

Mm... the longitudinal component of the total wave function is anomalously quick right now/in this period in question - ...it may not be entirely suitable to the Euro's particular make up to handle progressive patterns as well as it does more standard meridional amplitude pattern types. We know that ... Granted, this system is on the near side of middle range ... but "if" this pattern is problematic, it might shorten the models wheel-house edge. Sounds like a stretch but, this run did technically come slight N with the southern vortex over 00z... and there is time. interesting.

How about the save by the bell Xmass morning event there ... hahaha... Man, pulling that off two years back to back would be an impressive statistical feat -