Typhoon Tip

Love to say .... but the 00z and 06z GFS operational runs actually look like better blended fits when plotting the lower tropospheric evolution on top of native pattern limitations as described above... My guess? Just don't like it because it's a ...not as much snow, and more importantly b ... the snow is PA/Upstate NY and more NNE. That said, there's no reason why that solution in totality can't adjust SE (and it would be a very small adjustment Meteorologically) and still maintain it's overall complexions as a flat, QPF rich wave ... squeezed through a hostile velocity flow. But again again ...again, this is all predicated on the compression of the field being in place 144+ hours... If that proves relaxing, that could/would change things...

By the way ... those that have commented on the para 06z run... yeeeah, but, your snow goggles missed the near warning ice-storm in the interior before the "20-30" (imagine sarcastic irreverence) of snow... That would be taking NESDIS 4-like event and locally making it a little more interesting to put it nicely -

Ha ha ha ( golf clap ) ... Boy... didn't take long to wind y'all up, huh. You've gone from rocking, blood-shot eyed, straight-jacket padded cell apoplexy, to already visualizing in greed how this going to maximize.. on a temporal dime. I dunno, I just still don't like the compressed look to the flow everywhere - don't worry...there will be a time and place along the synoptic history of the Universe in which the compression won't be as concerning, at which point that auto-mantra will blow less hard than the Nor'easters the models keep trying to paint during said compression. Here's the rub... the compression is not an absolute mitigation. It's a reducing factor ... Here's how it works for the less than knowing: excessive wind velocity in the ambient geostrophic medium, absorbs embedded particular S/W mechanics by lowering their d(v) within the flow. With lower d(v), that (physically) requires less restoring jets ( you can look these up in the total cyclonic model) Weaker restoring = weaker resulting cylogenesis. d(v) = (wind velocity of the ambient - wind velocity maximum of S/W) ... (this is paraphrased mathematics describing the partial derivatives of Navior Stokes) It's alright ...even the watered down version is little pricey for some readers ... But that processing is not necessarily canceling out S/W mechanics either. It's just taking some away - that's the "take away" (puns always intended). I'm not opposed to an event through the time frame ... I brought it up myself, yesterday, that the previous trend probably should not apply to the time span in question. I just would reign in the maxing - and perhaps the more important impetus being ... strive for an objective approach early in the game to help mitigate the "let down" factor. Should this this end up being less... and definitely if the fast flow seems culpable, I'm going to drub this post back out of the past and bold this paragraph If not... it would be rare to have an open wave like the para GFS create that much output, by torquing a closing mid level closure around inside such a hurried medium. That should be dubious - just sayn', because the mechanical taxation/concepts above should be absorbing it's ability to do so. I guess ... if the wave comes off the Pacific in the upper tier power ... boy, it'd half to be really f'n powerful because the compression issue back east is a super-synoptic, planetary wave consideration ...and S/W don't typically tell those where to poop in the woods. Having said all that... modulate toward less compression? No problem... put eight scoops on a kiddie cone, I won't care as much...

I'm sure thousands have surmised similar to the following in their own imitable ways ... but, I've come to find those products to be vastly superior in art compared to their practicum in deterministic Meteorology... One thing I've noticed my self ... but don't believe I've mentioned, is that relative to all of them/sourcing, if I were to take whatever amounts indicated, and ~ halved them, that factor of 2 makes them more useful. Not in every case... as I just said, there's an element of relativity; one has to balance against in situ synoptics, along with local-studies ... In other words, an upslope/topographic boost 30" pounding on the eastern slopes of the NH Whites might show up as say 38" painted among that/those products. Though in error, that would still be in the 66 to 80 percentile, and thus acceptable and closer to useful. But, 27" on the coastal flats of Maryland? That stresses believability ... particularly relative to this particular blended synoptic evolution.

I agree - it would be useful ... Considering the FV3' slated to come on line (now) once the Government appropriations thing ends ... during these testing phases, absolutely it would be nice to familiarize one with sigma level tendencies (notice I didn't say "biases" - heh).

M'yeah... not so sure about that. KC won more games, was higher seeded, had more weapons on paper, and was playing at home. Not sure that's a choke -

18z GFS is hedging back toward more compression/wave damping ... The whole run appears sped up with wind velocities and bit more gradient saturated then the last two cycles. ... I mean, unfortunately, that's part of the possibilities over next weekend. I mentioned it earlier, so it's good to get an example of this out of the way early - and hope it really does stay 'out of the way' ... but I'm leery of this PV up N acting too weighty and squeezing the flow ... One thing I do want to point out is that the 582 dm isotach is S of Florida and the wind velocities are ~ 30 kts. Although there is a fast flow in some GFS runs overall... should the western ridge pop better there could be deeper dive back east with less absorption/adding back to storm potential. Any such system would be moving right along..

Yup ... mentioned this earlier myself. I'm actually still in that mode of reflection for now. Having cross-guidance support for that spatial-temporality is definitely the more immovable aspect. The details and individual model runs? That's just either eye-candy at one end, or venting-fights at the other...

Just because I'm bored with nothing to do until game time... I'd like to see some of those 'massive' individual members...

It's amazing how proficiently the post-modern era of Internet western society is at exposing an underlying lapse in the critical thinking ability of the general population. It's always been this way that lay-folks tend to believe ... but having the hoi-polloi have access to information does provide for an explosion of colorful renditions of reality ... which then go on to become ethotic, whether true or not. Gee - wonder why 'fake news' ever found a target.

Mm... looking a little closer... that's actually a huge broad sleet band... good for 1.5" total of rattling ... but there would still likely be a band that's perhaps 20 miles wide of pellets and accretion mixed. It would be warning ice either way...

We mentioned be leery of ice profiling ... as though deliberately to emphasize the point, that para run of the GFS with 24 hours straight of severe icing - that would be probably 2+" of accretion in a band somewhere ... Basically, N. Worcester Co/'08 spread out over a much larger area

Euro run doesn't look right beyond D4.5 .... 86 that

Purely for the conjecture of it ... nah... Keep it - Admittedly, the problem is an IMBY one for me... Metro-west of Boston out throughout the 495 region of eastern SNE didn't really get that big of a deal out of that "history" maker. It was ...15" total in Acton - if we use snow as a kind of standard metric for the, "dude ...inCREdible" scaling, that's not overly impressive. I suspect much of adjacent eastern Massachusetts, CT/RI ... also had < 18". If we wanna consider other aspects... no one around my township or adjacent ones lost power. The wind was advertised to topple lose chimneys and airborne stray cats and I don't recall even seeing small branch litter anywhere. I'm not sure what produced the biggest bluster: the storm, or the media frenzy in the 7 days leading up to it. Instead, it was proven more histrionic. Don't get me wrong... I say this with some tongue-in-cheek... who would ever pass on 15" ... But, I'd like a storm advertised like that to actually be historic here The most interesting aspect about that storm for me was the 13" nearing the Gulf geographies, as well as the derecho like wind blast/squall that slammed through Florida.

Heh - you beat me by a single post yeah... it's a period of important amplitude I suspect... It's waaay out there. But just about every member of the GEFs carries either an event or a trough flex ... indicative of favorability in the overall numerical guidance coverage. Usually important eras show up at extended leads because their presence ...however emergent, are either already detectable ...or the domain in question is exceptionally prone to something evolving given time - either way... The "already detectable" variety is usually < D10 however.. So, we'll see... The EPS is in the throws of a pattern that's not antithetical too... This could all mean anything -

Jokes aside ... it's been popping up occasionally ... and there's enough ensemble member suggestion for the next bit of amplitude to watch around the 24th/25th ... while would be the 41st anniversary to a very close approximation ironically.. In any case, I am actually more intrigued for that time range for a purer formatted "snow" chance ... where and when exactly TBD -

huh ... you don't have to tell you're kidding ... I get it... I'm douche, your a douche... everywhere a db old mcfarmer had a cow, e-i e-i- oh.

Can someone other than me begin the perfunctory flogging Kevin's head with, 'not an actual forecast but conjecture of possibilities' ? I fantasize outfitting Kevin with doggy buzz collar ...and every time he get's ready to type one of his hyperbolic knee-jerk fantasy interpretations of what others are talking about.. BZZZZT! ... Then, when he's been zapped several times... he actually posts something lucid and intellectually accountable/responsible and fair, he get's a bj ... Wonder how long he'd take to behave in a risk-reward vs punishment corrigibility effort like that ...interesting.

Here's a ... each model has a different variation on that time frame ... But in this case, ... not just because of the time range; the wave spacial-temporal spacing from the Pacific to the Atlantic is in above average agreement for 144 thru 192 hours - no question! That's a huge difference for me. Comparative to the last six or so weeks, over a time-span that featured anomalous amounts of discordant negative interference, at all scales and considerations, intuitively that suggest an improvement in collective performance is in store. They could unilaterally fail...sure. But in synoptic 101, the synoptition seeks consensus. Above all, first and foremost, the crippling ennui has ended for the right reasons this time. Some of that righteousness is conceptualized by the fact that the hemispheric circulation medium, particularly over our quadrature, has finally passed through enough morphology ... ( and probably will continue to evolve - hopefully ... "phasing" with winter weather enthusiasts mental wave signatures ) that trend factors less. Looks like I am going to be wrong about the pattern flipping all at once in the models, though. I was thinking last month ...when all this was a merely embryonic amid the panoply of long-lead tools, that once the physical detection entered the framework of the models they'd hedge for a bit... then perhaps demonstratively collapse into the new paradigm... Yeah, at one or two points along the way, whole-scale changes did seem to hedge. But, that "all at once-ness" either did not happen, or perhaps this, now, is some sort of less than obvious variant. Nevertheless, I feel confident at this point moving forward that it is more difficult to dismiss events out-of-hand. I like the strung out nature of that wave space, in general, regarding D6-10 entity handling. The variance in details...? That's actually entirely acceptable among the guidance sourcing - but is more of the typical variety innate to the state of the art of the tech, rather than the intelligent sadist design of the previous dynamic. Now that we're in a hiatus of kosmik dildo floggings ... perhaps we can get down to business. Heh..funny. Anyway, the parallel GFS looked like a grid concerning ice storm to me, by the way. That's a motif y'all may not want to dismiss in the probability envelope for that general three day period. The strung out nature of the wave mechanics makes sense do to the compression in the field. Personally.. I like it when consensus is above average, but, said consensus actually fits the limitations(advantages) native to the super-synoptic evolution. In this case... a cohesive singular wave phenomenon propagating through the flow, is not warranted. The acceleration of the balanced geostrophic wind values as S/Ws enter roughly 100 W does not physically allow for the formulation of events. Rather, wave mechanical momentum conserves along a shearing axis... The advantage to winter enthusiasm... is that a protracted event may set up. It could also quasi- ANA ... at one end... to perhaps a 30 hour mix ending as a middling coastal ... or even an ice storm, are all circumstantially favored through that period. Now, ...this could certainly change. This is an early outlook that balances in observations of limitations(advantages) where applicable. Should the gradient surplus look abate a little... other possibilities enter the fray. Should it even increase... that, too. But, the fact that models and their ensemble clusters appear all the same page for that general time frame, is interesting to me first and foremost for this new pattern look.

Ha! ...wtf... I didn't say nothin'

Ha Ha Ha

I'm a lesbian trapped in a man's body ... Oh! wait ...what poll is this?

Pedestrian down our way just yet...

Ray's 1978 redux is on this GFS cycle... Cleveland style! that's almost a dead ringer... Well, 500 mb it is anyway... That surface evolution leaves a lot to be desired with that much subsumed bomb potential in the mid troposphere.

Interesting... just like that ... compressibility is present over Florida ... Figures the south stream stays in tact for it alright ... right out in to the open Atlantic east of the Carolina's ... This rendition of screwing us over decides to liimit the western ridge such that N stream won't collapse in and phase.