Typhoon Tip

OH I'm sorry ... I don't/didn't mean to come off as "factoid" on that. That's speculation based upon some other avenues that are, however clad...so, call it synthesizing a possible explanation/and/or supposition that when the base-line R-wave lengths are smaller, the EPO tends to dump west. Moreover, since we are not statistically in the longer R-wave time of year ( yet ) .. that's why I used the term scaffolding That said, I'm not even sure that ridge being too far west in this situation is really caused by that. It may just be the rub that it's a "west-based +PNA"

Yeeeup .... Kind of hard to release 3 billion years of geological carbon stows ...back into the reactive chemistry environment in as little as 300 years, and expect all that volatility to go on without consequence... huh? F idiots But oh, wait! When the IR ( Industrial Revolution ) took place, the first thing anyone thought was, "..We're going to make a fortune off this profligate exploitation.." and that's a human failing. The next species that climbs out of the primordial ranks to take over the planet might have some built in checks-and-balances that we never seemed to evolve when our ingenuity outpaced the natural order of ecological limitation on provisions .. Those that always dictated species' populations and their inherent vitality and health and numbers. When we added to our share, these other systems subtracted from theirs. It's all just arithmetic - 8 billion people ( no wonder ) requires a mass extinction of these other species, THEN. That probably really is more than just symbolically what is happening to this world. The earth doesn't care what species it is... but all species can't exceed 20 billion ( say ). So if we occupy 8 billion of that space, something else has to wither away.. I like that, it's a great premise of sci-fiction, probably because like all really good sci-fi, it has plausibility based in fact.

huh... No, completely illogical read on your part. The statement has 0 to do with weather numb nut -

There may also be a seasonal aspect to this.. We are still technically not into the longer wave length R-wave time of the year, such that these EPO vicissitudes may not be taking place in the best "scaffolding" ... That said, I really am strongly confident in my observation that this trough has corrected toward a shallower meridian depth coming east of the Rockies, comparing the runs from two days ago. This may be correction owing to the fact that the ridge is further west - which full circle ...may be related to the -EPO happening in a subtly less than ideal R-wave construct... Lotta of chicken and egg and complexity there.. But in the end, the trough plumbs to about Nebraska and suddenly stops in the Euro and just starts moving E... that's the ball-game if that happens. Next! Maybe it'll correct but I really believe it starts with that ridge bumping E some. If so, we start to see that trough carve deeper toward the TV and there we go.

Anyone who's abandoning this thread should not be allowed back in when the 12z guidance reverses the trend -

MJO progs are still favorable mid month ... Man, it's almost like the peregrinations of modeling efforts and tweaking over the years have wended us into a situation, almost purely as an "emergent process of a complex system"; in this case the models have emerged this skill of engineering reasons to cancel deeper cyclones. Seriously, according to CPC the MJO in both the GFS/Euro clusters, rockets through phase 6 in just two days; then, while strengthening modestly they slow the propagation down passing moderately thru phases 7/8 ... That's a cold seasonal correlation for the NP-Lakes/OV and NE regions... What's interesting is that the operational Euro and GFS are really doing everything in their physical power to flip the script to a warmer look as near as D10, seemingly fighting it.. There's really no reason in the tele's to do that, not sure why they are... interesting.

I think you and Scott ( I think it was .. ) kinda nailed it three days ago, when you were discussing the particulars with the ridge in the west. From what I've just seen of the overnight guidance, this is simplified: the ridge is too far west. Because of that, as the trough amplifies it's only going to be able to gain so much meridional depth coming east of the Rockies ( to satisfy the total L/W spacing). So it bottoms out early and the flow is stretched west-east. Which I'm not saying it will go on to verify that way; this is an eval of what the models have morphed over the last two days. But if the ridge in the west were say, 10 deg longitude ( or so ) east, the trough gets conserved in the N/S, and then you get feed-backs .. Like increased leading confluence and arming high pressure over eastern Canada ...enhancing baroclinicity ... bottom of the trough ignites low that comes up underneath and yadda yadda yadda. It's just a weird nuance in this amplitude - which who knows... It may very well go on into the history books that way. It's too bad for storm enthusiasts, because this is a rare time that the flow over the Gulf looks compressible enough to me. We'll get a +3 SD ridge over the Dakotas in two weeks, with a 50 v-max diving SE over ORD, ...whith 588 heights over Atlantic Georgia - you think this is pisser, wait 'till you see the toaster bath that causes. But, the teleconnectors can't elucidate that type of particular idiosyncrasy - all they can do is signal interesting time periods and then it is hoped such details remain better behaved. Because the truth is, the west-east biased version of the +PNA/-EPO isn't physically impossible, within the confines of an otherwise tele-based promising correction event - which is pure statistics. In a way, it's really no different than a west or east -based NAO: both are negative( positive) but they have most discerned different impacts on eastern Canada/NE U.S. As far as the Lakes cutter... I'm not even seeing that much frankly in some of these guidance'. Some of them are instantiating the low over the eastern Lakes on the polar boundary - not sure that's same thing but... heh. I mean it's not like the low cut threw anywhere doing that.

I expanded on that... I do that often... write something and then hammer it with afterthoughts -sorry

Not to be snarky but I don't agree that population is the problem in among its self. This may seem totally obvious because, well .. .it is, but, it's what the population does that is the problem - not the population. There is an important distinction. I'm sure those involved in any such debate are aware.. And perhaps there is a 'built in' assumption, one that is cynical where they're musing back and forth within the predilection that humanity is incapable of a non-profligate exploitation way of existence. I could buy that ... I almost like that - almost. Greed first! Evidence certainly seems to suggest so. To that, I have friends directly keyed into the circuit of Boston area university scientists, and they all agree ... the problem is more clearly a sociological one, more so than a geo-physical one. Change attitudes... and the latter takes care of its self. It's still just the population doing it. If there were 8 billion people on this planet all living green - no problem. That can change? But, people need to get burned to believe in the fire. That's the biggest problem with this ... the specter of climate change moves at a pace below the threshold of human senses. People can't feel, see, taste or touch or hear it; though we are seeing that beginning to change with striking video. Still, it's not in people's back yards enough. 'Soon as people feel the nausea, they'll stop sipping the cool-aide that it's okay to profligate - hell, begin to realize that the way we've done this thing since the Industrial Revolution is even profligate in the first place. Generations have now lived and died, tucked inside the IR years since that great Human evolutionary turn begin to usurp Human societies... and their culture knows no other way.

that's your K.U. event ... That gets ejected east, down comes the N stream... jump in the sack along the M/A and the party's on -

We gotta be careful tho .. .Will and Scott's concerns about the western ridge are certainly valid. It's actually the speed/isohypses counts that's [ probably ] stretching the total L/W space length so much, and just enough to do anything at all.... I think that is why the GFS isn't more consolidated with a plumb gorging out into the MS valley ...is because the wave spacing is stressed. You end up with pearled lows and an active baroclinic axis that's missing the mid level triggers, because said triggers are stretched. wow, what a cluster f!

Some other methods are flagging a stormy look ... particularly D4 to 12. Probably just ancillary indicators falling into line/emerging into the previous signal for mid month. But the MJO is accelerating through 6, spending really only 2 and half days there, and appears to slow down in both the Euro/GFS clusters as it cuts through 7 -->8 ... which OND is cold temp correlation moving from the NP thru the Lakes and into the east as it goes. It think there's some potential that the models have backed off the depth of that trough next week and may should not have - we'll see where this goes, but there also a recurving west Pac TC ... hard to say which came first, but the WPO favors that behavior and may send additional goodies down stream.

Yehah... we have to remember, we're still in an overall circulation regime that represents "good problems" to have. One thing I'm also thinking about is just how fast the flow is trying to circumvallate that trough, and even the D6-7 thing can be - obviously - misguiding because of that additional stress in the models. interesting.

I also I try to stay clear of the psycho-babble bullshit these days but still, I think there was a hang-up between "seeing the season's first snow" - versus maybe winning the lottery and having that go well above climo ? It's seems if folks kept the former expectation as the primary motivation for following and engaging in the hobby ..etc, that may make it less bitter that we're ...looking at whatever this present thing is. I dunno - seems that way...

I joked ... and of course got zero likes ( muah haha ), forecasting the dreaded apocalyptic "nosnowmegettin' " winter - does anyone have the plumbs to forecast that? I mean, take out the 2012 Halloween storm that was a pretty frickin' close to an an apocalyptically bad winter, and should show that if we can get that close - it's kind of like deep field astronomy and this S.E.T.I stuff. The old argument, if it can happen once in a cosmos that for all intents and purposes is so vast that to attempt to conceive of it in any finite terms pretty much escapes all effective meaning and therefore ...doesn't exist, that means that it probably happened more than once. I submit that in a GW/cc world, one that's already put up a year like that one, it's just a matter of time. That person that makes that call and is is proven right? I got a hunch they go down in history as the the most buried unsung genius ever - haha

I have a hypothesis growing ... one existentially based/anecdotal, but hey, ideas gotta start somewhere. Basically, we've already lost winters to global warming along the 45th parallel/ E of ORD. Zomb! Firstly, that doesn't mean it can't snow - don't panic just yet. Though such a future is unavoidable some years to decades in the future, for now it just means that the averages are already now breaching a base-line that is too warm to support cryo months. Most run-ins with cold and concomitant snows are going to be more pattern specific...thus, ephemeral in nature. We have to remember, there are no neat and tidy boundaries in the atmosphere. Climate zones are moving N; we know this is true as it is being empirically shown, and, these emergence' fit climate models - both primitive and more recently sophisticated. Be that as it may that does not mean it won't snow and get brutally cold, if perhaps spanning ever shorter duration(s) south of the perceived climate transition "boundaries" - virtual in nature...etc, etc. That all said, my hypothesis is that a climate transition virtual boundary has already shifted north of the Mid Atlantic and New England regions from central latitudes and S. Part of that is formulated by the personal observation that more and more ... we seem to not get cryo-supportive events/air masses S of the 45th parallel across the conus and locally, *unless* there is an antecedent -EPO. It seems to be we are whittling away other teleconnectors that were always capable of doing it. The negative North Atlantic Oscillations seem less effectual in delivering cold - though they are rarefied in recent decade as a separate matter. The PNA can be positive, yet we're throwing up raining coastal storm types along the eastern seaboard, and also...as papers are publishing recently, the mean storm tracks are observed(ing) migrating N; these +PNA's are delivering more "Lakes Cutter" type tracks. Also a warmer trajectory for the TV-eastern OV/NE regions. The East Pacific Oscillation domain space is very high in latitude, up over the Alaskan sector and adjacent lower Beaufort sea and N Pac/ NW Territories of Canada, and in fact, ...overlaps the Arctic Oscillation domain space. When that field is negative ( i.e., blocking heights and or directive cold loading into N/A), it is sort of like "the last of the cold delivery teleconnectors" to go. The larger scale geological/geographical circumstance in the way N/A is situated and immediately relays off the Pacific, "encourages" the EPO to bulge, and tap cold - if we look at the last 240 months of NASA averages, we see a relative cool offset over N/A for this reason. With the PNA and NAO seemingly reducing efficacy, the EPO has become much more the primary effective cold loading Canada and point south over the continent. The PNA and NAO, both seemed to to be less proficient in doing so within their own index correlations. These ladder indices share much more domain space with mid latitudes - particularly true in the PNA. The NAO is similar to the EPO, but ...the western limb of NAO's domain space is over a region of Canada that has been experiencing elevating temperatures even in winter months - so in the means..there's plausibility for research there, that perhaps the -NAOs are not as effective as they used to be at delivering cold to 40 N ( ORD-BOS). I have noticed that we are either partial/below normal temperature distribution/anomalies therein, with -EPOs, or... we seem to go right back to a new rest state that features vastly above normal temperatures. It's like one or the other, with less "normal" days in between. Normal days in climate ...they are almost as rare as any given departure, because they are just numbers that precipitate out of arithmetic means... But, the scatter plots are showing greater departures/extremes - and that is more like the new normal. If we took the EPO's out entirely? I think we have 60 to 70 F winters.

I never really watched the show. I was probably too young to care in the early part of the decade and didn't come into my own until Star Trek TNG sort of flipped the script on the singular stud model of sitcom television. Your "Mag PI" and "Night-Rider," resonant echoes of a 1980s patriarchal dominant line-toeing conservatism ( thankfully!) started extinguishing. Shows like TNG with all their aliens and different cultural tolerance built into theme, yet still with hierarchical command structure, played homage to both cultural modes, but was a reflection of the changing times.. What the hell am I babbling about ? Oh, I was into shows in the 1990s when I wasn't drunk at college. That was usually TNG reruns by then, "Simpsons" ... and "Family Guy" eventually. And "Frazier" loved that show. In fact, I don't think I ever regulared television other than Science Channel and PBS/Nova type stuff, since Frazier concluded. Oh, sports - okay.. I like the Patriots and Red Sox, Celtics and Bruins, but that's a different thing. Never dug on the stud shows though - both too young, and even if I were older, judging who I am, I'd-a been rooting for the villain to kick the stud's ass!

Well.. I read that ( bold ) and cringe, too. Firstly, I didn't say that it 'shit the bed' necessarily? I don't wanna be couched in that sort of admonishment/castigation thing. But, as to the bold, it's still better than it used to be. I think others have discussed this, and why, recently already, so no sense in drubbing the topic back up. Let's just cool-headed say, yeah...the GFS seems to have the better idea on this one and leave it at that. We don't have to oversell the Euro's perceived bad performance, or we're just as guilty as the oversell of the model we are evaluating. I would still take the Euro over the GFS as a gambler, even in the D4-6 window, but this was a particularly tough call for all guidance really. We are in a screaming fast pattern ( wind more so than wave spacing...).

As opposed to the more accurate seasonal forecasts prior to that Not trying to be a dink but, ... I don't think there's ever really been a boon era for seasonal forecasts. Some year, some individual seems to do have done particularly well.. And there's this propensity for adulation and 'rock-starring' - which is eye-rolling in most cases. But, that same individual's dice don't roll the seven on the fire bet that next year, and tho they may have won some residual clout for having had the one stellar performance, it's usually someone else's turn to roll an eleven and score. There are some techniques that can be considered, that may improve one's vision over climatology ( or the opposite if they're bad at this shit...), but frankly, there are key systemic, global changes that are becoming increasingly coherent spanning the last couple of decades, and until I start reading in plain text that the author is including those facets ( much less ...are even aware) than it's all really just crap- shoot entertainment in my estimation.

Something else to think about ... which, no one will most likely, is that the Euro from D5 was way over selling what is going to turn out to be a nuisance front for overnight tonight, ... much more so than the GFS ever did. Not saying the GFS was right per se ? It could be 'right' for lower impact, but having gotten there for the wrong reasons, too. That sometimes happens.. So we shouldn't readily extend credit there necessarily, either. I'm looking at the individual runs 00z Monday and wow did the Euro get lost in overproduction... Even 00z Tuesday it was still selling a quick Jersey bomb deal; while the GFS trended a little more developed across those days, it was N and waited 'til NS to really deepen matters. Sorry, the GFS wins this one from middle-range. There is definitely a culture of 'wait until the Euro' and a palpable if non-disclosed sense of 'relief' or 'gaiety' comes across from the weather enthusiasm sphere when the Euro happens to align with wants and desires. But, this journey this week proved hands down and incontrovertibly that the Euro was flat f'n wrong man, and the GFS was flat the whole time so out performed it. I've noticed that the GFS is like the red-headed step child model at times. And tho at times it deserves it, there are those other times where it's just gone and done better but few seem to recognize it.

Mm, I'm not as optimistic for that. This issue of the HC actually gets more burdensome and forcing on the flow as the winter matures. Cold heights only steepens the ambient gradient in the total atmospheric space, and by the time the HC relaxes ( did this last year ) we're already into the spring at lower latitudes ( Feb ). The papers discuss this as "shifting storm tracks northward" but ... gathering one's theoretical wit about themselves, that can mean just about anything that also includes shearing and/or velocity saturation -related negative interference, too. It's all part and parcel of the HC expansion issue that is permanently part of a warming world - unfortunately. And, we are beginning to see it physically manifest on storm behavior and modeling ( I feel ); which as an aside, this tendency to "cancel" storms going from extended to mid and shorter ranges is an emergent model performance error tendency. Unsure why the models seemed to need to 'correct' heights higher in the HC at the D5 temporal boundary ...but that seems to be a repeating, albeit, subtle theme of errors in recent decade. The Euro just did it. To your point, it probably doesn't help that climatology doesn't really stem-wound very many Cape Hatteras to western NS bombs in mid November. But, that climate isn't a preventative either - it just suggests its hard to come by this early. Whether this particular system succumbs to too much heights in the south/speed saturation because of the HC or not, that could happen anyway this early when a substantive negative mid level anomaly plumbs S into the residual seasonality.

And there's a system D8-10 coming into the NP that shows promise ... And notice the heights over GA/FL/ Gulf region have large gap spacing, and 582 dm contour is abeam or S of Miami... that's all a signal of compressibility to the flow and said NP system has a shot at burrowing its way into the TV and setting up a more proficient cyclogen response along the EC... Question is, does the model wait until day 5 again to suddenly go wait, global warming... f' if I forgot! Better jack the heights in the S to atone for it and then we go thru this absorption /cyclogenesis robbing shit all over again...

larger -scaled idiosyncrasies in positioning of major trough and ridge nodes around this side of the Hemisphere certainly plays a role, but I noticed something else leap out at me from the operational Euro's 00z solution. Particularly ...the D4 thru 6 evolution. I wrote about this yesterday at length, ironically - and no sooner... school's in session. This got wacked across our faces on this Euro's run: "...I used to refer to this as the "Miami rule" back in the day, ..and it still works actually, even though I was blissfully unaware, then, that what I was observing was the early onset of the former. I did a statistical analysis of east coast storms years ago ( talking 2002 or 2003 ), and found that 72 hours prior to the storm genesis ( usually when the governing mechanics are still not yet arrived/crossed the 100 W longitude ) if/when heights were > 582 DAM over Miami, and wind speeds were > than 35 kts, the Miami rule was in effect. Then, as the S/Ws succeeded that ~ 100 W their southern aspects began to absorb wave mechanics into the preexisting balanced upward wind anomaly. The troughs tended to morph into a positive slope geometry ...and onward, this then of course mitigated cyclogen parametrics - not absolutely... Just in part. But sometimes that part might be large, and mid range storms ended up weaker. ..." Thing is ... up thru yesterday, I had been monitoring the heights between the western Gulf of Mexico to Florida and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin, and they were lower. This run last night, en masse, corrected the 500 H up about 6 DAM on average, ...but I feel that is critical/threshold breaching in terms of getting the larger-toward-smaller scaled neggie interference going, and this run reflects it. If one starts on D4 and clicks through you can see the trough getting absorbed/sloping positive... This is a factor having to do with the HC expansion, which can be ephemeral ... or, in the case of climate change, a longer term systemic change. That latter is heavily papered... That said, it doesn't mean that we can't time a period in there when it happens to relax some - I mean, it's not like an immovable slab of concrete ..it's still just air. Anyway, this interference would take place regardless of the those other synoptic observations folks made yesterday, related to nuances in ridge trough positioning. So, basically add this to this mitigators. So, long of the short, the bigger H.A. signal may not bear fruit in terms of "big" ...but, supplying a system of any kind and probably middling is the way to go, because this 13th thru the 16th is just getting banged around by any reason the Earth's atmosphere can think of to cancel out a major system. Now, in addition to your observations re those ridges and trough, we got this height surplus correcting into the S and that's going to speed up the flow and start negatively interfering.. Pig pile on Heather Archembault I guess...

It's interesting watching the models go out of their way to engineer distractions to this thing ... ha

My guess is the Euro's coming in deep and menacing - gaiety and b-polar elation make friends out of dubious allies ... until the 18z GFS. At which point the steady diet of post content immediately precipitates how the Euro isn't as good as it used to be...