Typhoon Tip

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

Seems to be maintaining that gestalt in this run, too. It may still have some intra-trough contention... not truly ideally phasing and whatever, but it definitely is more proficiently smoothing out the wave interactivity in a more harmonious fusion. We can see...that escaping near bomb is a result of that - As I was mentioning in the other thread ... I think the Euro being inside of D4 while the UKMET leaned in with a campaign contribution are red flags for something more than the GFS. Which frankly, the GFS's speed obsession ...it might not be the best model for these subsume scenarios... even when/in the partial sense, it'll always end up in a lesser proficient paradigm.

Wrong thread but the JMA/GGEM and this run are ominous for next Wednesday

This is a quick moving NJ Model low in this 12z oper. Euro ...might approach bombogen criteria, but probably rapid enough either way to clip the region with middling concerns. Others are right... there's going to be some height fall requirement/but 850 mb pulling down cold from the N once that and the 700 surface are closing off would likely accelerates that. Airs some semblance to me of November 1986. This has a pretty potent frontogenic signature there, even using the poor granularity of the free-bee products that is discernible. With a 500 surface closing and heights falling with cyclogen kick-back, destablization in a band or two gives some meso/thunder concerns - but I may be too optimistic with deepening rates. Close call! Anyway, inside of D4 on the Euro is typically in 80th percentile for correct... There may be times where it has performed worse, but there are enough where it's 90 or better...it's a got a solid and reasonably dependability for 84 to 96 lead.

That does appear to be a CCB formulation attempt there -

Will be watching over the next 18 to 24 hours as there is an important piece of atmospheric dynamics relaying off the Pacific ocean up there over the mid/lower B.C. coast/western Canada, and sometimes ...though rarely given advancements in data assimilation techniques, those features will come on board and offer/force morphologies down stream, because they are either weaker or stronger than said assimilations -"assimilation" in this context means... in a dearth of physical/emperical measurements, they use a combination of (usually) satellite soundings, and numerical interpolation. Anyway, a stronger s/w injected into the fray in the TV may force a more proficient phase like the Euro - and these interactions are very sensitive to minor fluctuations, too. The Euro has been more consolidated in the Tennessee Valley area ...demonstrating a more proficient phasing between said follow-up dynamics, and the residual trough that's pushing through that region .. 72 to 84 hours from 00z run. It's unclear why it did that, where the other model types show more negative interference and less phasing... causing the trough to be less capable of igniting substantive cyclogen in time - like the Euro is. The UKMET showing up more leaned in that Euro's favor is telling, ..offering perhaps some intuitive notion that the Euro superior assimilation/correction schematics overall may be helpful here.

lol

Still looks like wave interference to me ... GGEM just doing it's best to resolve 120 kts of mid level rage while having two S/W in discrete spacing vying for dominance in that trough. Same thing in GFS.... it's just it's rendition of the resulting low - it's dice rolling among these runs until one of two things happens: either it phase more purely like the Euro.... or, they just neggie interfere and the Euro is wrong, and what materializes ends up being a cyclonic smear that shears out to sea into oblivion - thanks for playing the 'hopes up for no reason game' It's gamble which way to go. haha. No but the GGEM and GFS have intra-wave space interference f'n around with their respective total deep layer results. If the Euro arrives unraveled like these busted ravioli solutions, then I'd save your sanity and 86 the whole thing

It might be that the Euro is just phasing the remnant ejected western trough more proficiently with that piece of late ejected more polar stream mechanics coming SE through the Plains there at 72 hours. The GFS dives the wind max into that region there, and then the two cancel out, and the trough remains neutral/positive slope and thus....weaker for whatever it goes on to create. The Euro just seems to phase that more proper like, opting for more constructive wave interference/interaction ... interesting.

One thing I've been noticing about the difference between the Euro and the GFS is ... The GFS has internal destructive wave interference over the TV...centered roughly on 84 hours off the 06z ( to exemplify the point), but has been carrying on with that contention for many runs. The Euro seems to be smoothing and/or not just disagreeing that will be the case. The differences parlay ... The Euro then goes on to having more of a 'slug' of DPVA and total mechanics for quicker cyclogen and is thus cooling the column quicker. Contrasting, and despite the GFS' seeing this as a bomb a week and a half ago ( haha ), the GFS' negates that look and it's resultant low weaker and faster.

Oh yeah! right - that's the one, but I was actually thinking back to before even that... Of course, the GFS goes out to the edge of time and space, so - The 5th has been signaled for trough intrusion through the ambient SE ridge ( at least attempted) the whole way though.. That's probably the "what the models are really for" practical intent, and thus...take away - but obviously, these tools are used for people's psychotropic entertainment addiction in here, so are not judged accordingly... I mean, if one wants to be objective about it, and not just being snarky ( like I just did ) out of hand, there's intrinsic value in the low being there, not the details of it. But that's just me I guess... Come circa Sunday night..I'm beginning to wonder if we will at that time be two events through otherwise gloomy two week relaxation of misery. Ha ha. Maybe we'll be saying something like, " Outside of this mid week, looks like a tough stretch coming up..." Then, next Friday arrives three successfully entertaining events logged, and we'll be saying ... " Outside of this early next week, looks like a tough stretch coming up" ..etc In fact, I'm growing increasingly confident that we are seeing an emergent property in the 50 to 60th latitudes over N/A that is actually a cold feed-back at larger synoptic scales, from this expanded HC business. What the latter may be doing is helping to enhancing the tendencies for confluence as that aggressively abuts the N/Stream, and so we end up with the polar highs and big thermal slope events with warm air at mid levels. It seems there is an abnormally large plethora of those being shredded out by the GFS in the guidance's behavior... more so as we've gotten into the middle(er) part of winter here. Seems it has a D11 ice storm on every other run. But more importantly, these highs in southern Canada are not being handled well at longer ranges ( D6 or7 + ), and thus, the models "tend" to only see SE ridging at those times. The other aspect when comparing the EPS to the GEFs, .. I'm seeing both means playing into their own bias some...The Euro's cluster is a bit too deep in the SW ...and that small amount of feed-back then gets ballooned when it dumps L-h into the ridging and it's being exaggerated. The GFS stretches things too much, ...if not, moves too fast in its progressivity tendency.

HYE ya'll.. How 'bout this guy, GFS' member P006 ( 00Z) ...with a torqued CCB around the west side drillin' b-ward conditions through central zones, up through eastern VT/NH and ME There were other members that were almost this impressive too... I'd count, maybe 5.25 members if I were trying to be objective but there's a gradation with the weaker ones, and none have no low pressure concern at all. So, overall, I'd say that's > 50% confidence for something by a goodly margin. The amplitude is intriguing... Does anyone have that URL handy, where you can enter a date and it has the model run ? Or am I imagining such an availability is out there - I'm curious because I can swear, I recall the GFS having a solution like this above or thereabouts...some 10 days ago. Then, it smeared it into a Lakes Cutter, at other times, just a big bag of amorphous/weak LP with QPF non-committal ever since. Seeing these runs not "maybe" formulating a consensus on this thing, maybe isn't without precedence -

I don't like the positive slope of that trough though... It's stealing the DPVA. That's why you want the slope of the trough to 'fish hook' the southern end, so that the DPVA is normal to the isohypses and your UVM blows a hole in the top of the tropopause... blah blah... but, we can still get decent cyclogen too - just saying... it's leavin' some on the field.

Not sure if it's entirely a practical use of time debating that particular model's depiction from 120 hours or so out, but I'd have to say that is an incremental improvement over the 12z run as far as profiling for winter enthusiasts. That's code for ... more snow.

That ICONic p.o.s. model has 4-6" off an NJ model secondary this weekend for what it's indubitably worth -

Right...we haven't attempted to move a storm through a west -based -NAO compression, either. You made it sound like a silver bullet fix was Atlantic... heh...it's a bit more complex than that.

I'm talking about Meteorology here... The heights are anchored in the GW anomaly that's ...just ... it

If you want my opinion ...which I know you gaze out at the auburn sunsets forlorning to hear ... Nope - The SE ridge isn't a SE ridge as is; it is the entire planetary tropical girdle of heights... In other words, that's just a nodule of a beast that frankly, I keep discussing but everyone's either ignoring, or don't understand, or don't take seriously... but, it's well-papered that the Hadley Cell is expanding. Now, this does not directly impugn your assessment when you say "SE ridge" ... buuut, the problem is, the heights are not going anywhere if there is Atlantic blocking/-NAO west based or not... In fact, what results in that circumstance is hellacious Neptunian wind velocities yanking Denver's air mass and fire hosing it at France... Can't get storms in that kind of compressed flow.

oh god. I saw that emblem down in the lower left there and though, "wow - this late in the season"

That's a nother thing... I wonder if we're ever gonna get one of these big rosby rollout warm ups on D10 to actually verify - It's like the opposite of previous years with this model. Usually, there's a D9 bomb on every run that gets so common false people stop even commenting on it. This is like a phantom early spring opposite of that -

I was with you on that... The the error balloons from about D4.5 on that run, re that particular wave. It looks like the model overly conserves it's mechanics and digs it too prodigiously in toward W. TX or thereabouts... and then of course it has to then consider what to do with all that power once it is ejected... ending up in a upstate bomb. I suggest that D4-5 comes out flatter and that thing ends up a NJ model type low ...but I also caution, that's all predicated on the assumption it's right at D4, first.

Re the Euro... I'd like to point out a subtlety. Four cycles ago (12z yesterday), this was a stem-wound bomb up in western/central Ontario re the 5th-ish. 00z last night had that more Buffalo's longitude, with suggestion of a secondary ...at least attempt if not reflection. This 12z run seems destined to continue along that trend of correcting E... I just want to note, that the Euro tends to have a slight west/amplitude trough bias at D7+, so...this syncopated correction isn't without precedence.

Yeah...considering these next ten days to two weeks, looks like three potentials for inclemency: Jan 5-6, 8-9, 11-13 How those perform ( obviously) have more coherency the nearer in time, but It's not hard ( for me ) to see why we are "Lake cutter" saturated with storm tracks, in the mean modeling behavior this cold season. I put that in quotes because my take on things are at odds, philosophically, with the recognition of how/why lows cut early and turn polarward through the Great Lakes longitude(s) as guidance has biased. We are looking at a coincident result, more so than a pattern that typically drives those. The Hadley Cell bloated stuff is simply messing everything up. The storm track is being pushed N in the mean - this is papered... - and North America seems to be suffering the same. That's different from a pure -PNA/-PNAP flow construct. Having said that, there are ways to overcome that forcing ... There just needs to be relative anomalies embedded with the necessary power to do so. Which can and will at some point happen. As well, just because the HC is inflated anomalously "heighty", doesn't mean it will always be that way... So things can time that way, too. It's not a good era for modeling ...particularly latter mid and extended ranges, because the velocity saturation and 'stretching' of wave mechanics makes determinism at an excessive premium to put it nicely.

I couldn't agree with this more... yeah. Thing is, it's a sociological problem - if we want to put a sciency sounding label to it. I have a PHD friend in the academia of the Boston circuit of Universities ( MIT-BU-Harvard and gang if it helps to drop names...) and she's utterly agreed with me on that, that the GW "debate" isn't a debate - it's an advantageous era where people have become complacent with the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution -based tech culture. If someone literally feels physical and emotion pain and anguish as a direct consequence and penalty of GW, they'll admit it. It's that simple...thus, it's a sociological problem when integrating that baser evolutionary aspect into the whole. Humans... all animals for that matter, don't respond as well to stimulus they cannot directly sense through one of the corporeal senses: Sight, Sound, Touch, Taste or Smell... and usually, more than one is more convincing. GW? Doesn't have that advocate... It's specter is invisible...particularly when the person hearing or reading about it, is submerged in examples that are always somewhere else in the world, while always when they are sitting in a comfortable office or personal living space. Even the poorer classed hoi - polloi that don't have quite all the accessibility to the same advantages as higher echelon, live luxuriantly cozy existences compared to the 47-year old life expectancy of their paleo-forefathren ... People deny GW/CC ...whatever we want to call it, because they can...and, they will do what they can, if it takes not having to face that they can't live the way they've grown accustomed to living. That's the problem facing the World. ...and why that 'catch-22' will probably require a massive population correction and tech set back, before some form of non -profligate, responsible/conservative approach to building the scaffold of future society heralds the real next phase in human evolution. Which,...this is that turning of the page - it never goes smoothly... That's being optimistic, too... We don't even know what the finality of these detrimental evidences are, as they are still in the process of f'n the environmental as it is. We keep fielding papers that x, y or z is worse than projected it would be. ...list goes on... The catch-22? It's because the very evolutionary advantage that the vicissitudes of gratuitous chance endowed humanity with, the genius of ingenuity, appears destined to have created it's own demise. Cheers