Typhoon Tip

Welp ... 16" total. That ties my personal best/experienced single December event, which includes 1992 16" Lowell, 1997 15" Acton, and 2005 14" Acton... 16" 2019 Ayer ! Though, each storm in that list was unique and unlike the others, and that includes this one. Also, that's "personal experience" with them; some got more or less in each, of course. Something about Dec storms; the common theme is, if your going to push records in this month, it seems it's gotta be a weird event to do it - interesting.

Pretty cool image of the Missouri river cutting through the recent NP snow lay-down https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-N_Plains-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

12z GFS certainly likes the ides of the month... I mentioned this yesterday, our old saying up in my UML days ... "First it gets warm, then it gets cold, boom" ... Seems that series of synoptic charts post D10 sets the table -

mm... it's a clipper with short wave-length governing mechanics moving through a fast hemisphere. I.e., small and 'miss able'...so it may not be sampled - - as of 12z 00 hour it was situated 500+ miles out over the open east Pac in a horrendously fast flow. Good luck

Hopefully ( though a challenge ...) the denizens of social weather-related media and concentrated neurosis ( just kidding relax - ) can put this whole event into perspective and ... heh, wow This is Dec 2 and 3 we are talking about here. I say 18" spot maxes in 1986 from an upstart NJ Model clipper bomb ( which led off a blase season in whole ) back whence... and that was November 11 or 15 ( Will ? ) ... But, in general, having this kind of pervasive coverage of 12+" totals, and even getting the coastal towns some love to boot this early, is pretty fantastic. There's really is no room for grousing if we got anything over climo signaling... I know it doesn't alleviate the unpleasant realization that two towns over might have scored bigger totals... but that will pass. Give it time. This is a pretty fantastic ... If one wants a 'front-loaded' winter, this isn't a bad start... Let's just hope it's not like the Patriot's 8-0 start that is likely to end in disaster. Ha

Very recent rad trends are unilaterally indicating some weakening ... Maine to NH into eastern MA are all dimming brighter returns and shredding is more prevalent. Probably signifies the wind-down is near if not already began.

And that's the way it looks to me exactly ... at this time. I'm not hoping? or doing otherwise ... I'm just trying to be objective based upon knowledge and experience ... balancing in trends. If the large circulation featuring alters I'll be happy to amend these ideas regarding the current mid to late range ... Time will tell.

Yup ... and NWS made that very clear in their discussion prior to the event, that they were taking that philosophy/tact with this thing... Having said that... I don't know about the wisdom in/and public perception of having done so personally - not that you or anyone asked. PR and idiocracy factors don't really align with their level of precision and adherence to time-spans like that. Silly really - No ...the average person doesn't judicially judge these sort of things anywhere close to those internal aspects, ...and actually, the vast majority don't read their tech/reasoning discussions either. They may not like hearing this, BUT, they need to consider how these advisories and warnings are consumed. More so at that end - but that's just imho. NWS does not exist for their own precision - they exist paid for by the public To be fair, those time requirements work much of the time. However, this is/was an unusual circumstance that requires(d) a mutation of those requirements - this was a warning by totality of event scenario, sorry. More so than the other line of reasoning and though it is just my opinion, the PR angle should have been considered like the former. Civility isn't ready nor responsible enough for their precision. Maybe some day...

Ha ha... Kevin could figuratively put his lap top down, stand up...walk out his front door, and down to the end of his street and he'd be out of the storms western periphery and not part it for that 2 minute excursion... Yet it's all, " up to 11.0" this and that on this last heavy band ...

Yeah honestly I don't actually pay much attention to those hyper ala carte model types ... For all conceits and purposes of tech and excruciating computing power, they seem to throw almost as many variances, where just using the global models and smoothing them in mind's eye toward common sense works just as well. But, part of the "don't really use the HRRR" means lack of exposure to that guidance sourcing; so objective fairness requires that I don't actually impugn the model - I'm just saying as such from what I gather from what people post about it. Good and bad... and I'm lazy? ...so I rely on the smoothing above. That said, Will mentioned the HRRR snowing through mid afternoon and that seems to be matching well - that's all I know ...haha

There's a bit of an enhanced plume about to rotate SW out of lower Maine and quickly... Maybe a good inch in that - I'm now 6.5" since this recommenced last evening here in Ayer. Bringing the two day storm total to 15.5" ... HRRR ftw ?

yeah, this band is solid moderate burst ... 14" may go 15" soon for dual event total

Euro cut back on the 850 penetration in latitude, as well as time duration, and I suspect that trend continues. ... This next Lakes cutter is probable ( still ) but the deeper extended ( whether it happens or not exactly like that, notwithstanding...) really more than anything else underscores the previous -EPO or -EPO-like reload idea. Which typically promotes a brief period of ridging and warm intrusion up the eastern seaboard as per climatology as we know. Scott is over stating that effect to be funny troll but he knows what I am saying is true, and unless things turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities ... that period of time is more likely destined to be a transient/lower duration and quite possibly a lower amplitude scenario. Now that I've declared this... things will go ahead and 'turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities' just to spite this idea .. but cross that bridge - Regarding the Lakes cutter ... I still would not be surprised if the warm up ends up being more of a triple point mister with more transient heat pinched S of NYC. I've seen this EPO slosh back mass field two-step scenario too often to know that the warm side of it is often too amplified in most guidance types when peering at it from D5+ but ... meh...we'll see -

Boy the models really nailed that western foist of the surface low toward the Maine coast. You can really get a sense of that happening as we type, both sat and rad looping. I don't think this is going to end very fast in eastern Mass and coastal SE NH given that low needs to move along it's typical curved trajectory ...Fuji Wara style around the mid level vortex. It will probably start weakening, and that may dwindle off the intensity but until that low pivots S of and finally starts slipping E ..we're probably going to be rotating globules of light to moderate snow bursts like this.

I'm curious how everyone did/averaged E of I-495, where last night there was resent if not vitriol regarding the snow total forecasts seemingly not matching the "illusion" of now-cast at the time. I must admit, I too was a little surprised to see a solid new 6" on my wipe board this morning here in Ayer, and I suspect they snowed yet more say Willmington/Essex Co ?? So, those late snow totals forecasts nailed it if so -

the banded nature/shred rad fest that took place yesterday with that moisture starved conveyor is "technically" not part of "round 2" ...just sayn' Some of you did quite well from that interim snow during the afternoon and evening yesterday, along Rt 2 and curving SW in pockets in CT. But round 2 was more so the reconsolidating curved CCB head over the east overnight and this morning. Not that any of that matters... snow is snow -

6" new since ~ 4pm last afternoon in Ayer. 4" of which fell after 11 pm last evening. Which brings the event or dual event total to 14" .. but of course it's more likely 10" out on the yard level with the usual settling and so forth. Presently flurries with occasional light snow bursts. Vis isn't terrible. We appear to be on the western edge of this as everyone red eyed and awake is certainly aware.

Also ... may be hard toVisualize at this time but don’t be surprised if the 2 to 2 1/2 day warm up ends up 18 hours of misting triple point

This offers explanation...

No ... not necessarily... Just that it's within the realm of possibilities so folks should be aware that if this pivots a tick more and spares everyone the ignominy of a good time, don't be shocked or emotive. Tall order from this crew but - It's entirely possible that both those models are just responding to convective sequencing/feedback, and since this situation is sort of got no room to f around with it's not helping confidence either way. Euro's actually pretty good as an arbiter in this sort of situ - probably just go with that models and let the chips fall as they may at this point. Or, nowcast too

I mentioned yesterday that if this didn't consolidate better we might have to deal with a farther east 2nd system - Then of course what happens, the models summarily try to consolidate ... but, the lull today sort of precludes that as being successful and now on top of the 2nd system, the east - typical bs making people jump through hoops

snow blowing off roofs a bit ....

Just hoping it doesn't turn out to be one of those one storm now, one storm in March winters -

temps slipping back along Rt 2... 33/32 this morning and now 31/29... Snow/water beads on car are dry and solid respectively after being perfect snow man blue earlier

Or intelligence to read anything else