Typhoon Tip

Heh ... you mean as in, out over the water ? Nice... good for them haha

Best look we've seen all year, too... Looks warm ENSO like... although the gradient's still a bit steep ...still, getting any mean to load the Rockies with ridging is quite the accolade for this season and I bet that look there has a few particular members with fun antics.

Yeah I was mentioning that to Will earlier ... the NAM has had a speed fetish with this thing ... but, as I was discussing in that post, I can argue just the same for that to be right. It's interesting, as the GFS is considerably lagged on the western/NW arcs of the low's impact region and would protract the ending by what looks like 3 to 5 hours. In either case, sun may be shining mid afternoon. This one will have a better defined backside NVA/DVM mechanics

Oh you laugh... but don't kid ourselves - the process of pining for that dystopian cinema of the models, is really about seeking an endorphin sort of 'rush' ... even inspires joy sensations ... and yes! It is a very addictive process.

I'm several pages back but just noticing the 06z NAM and GFS both came back more robust ... Looks like Logan nears .9" melted in this NAM run, and the GFS had repositioning it's Va. Capes position some 100 mile N near off the lower Jersey shores...centered on 06z Monday morning. Which translates to almost a category increase in the QPF layout for areas on the NW arc. Which ...yeah I know how y'all feel about QPF art work and why..just sayn'... One thing that's stood out to me about the NAM's solution going back many cycles actually ... is that it almost looks like it is focusing all of the event on the east and N arcs of the cyclone ...and almost none wraps back on the West side. I can come up with an argument to satisfy that synoptic evolution related to the anomalous speed in the flow tilting the whole structure of the thing and/or shearing stress (some)... But, then I look at the GFS run and how it depicts the termination timing over interior Mass quite delayed comparatively. That looks more theoretically likeable... Not sure... Either seems plausible to me. It matters for whether I trek my way into the office or work from home tomorrow - haha. But that NAM consistency of scouring out all activity on the western (pretty much) half of it's cyclonic envelope is interesting.

Lol

You can really see how these high velocity patterns are very sensitive to subtle perturbations in terms of who gets what/where. Personally I expected a narrower impact but I'm just not sure how massive or less that will be. I wouldnt be shocked if somebody has thunder

People leave Tennessee ... why the hell you movin there

Ha ha... I know .. .like, is this thing ever going to show up already... . But yeah, NCEP's recent publications on the matter, they're indicated that at long last, ... the atmosphere over the Pacific Basin is finally showing signs of coupling with the SST distribution (via convection/OLR distribution and so forth) so,, agreed... there might just be a PNA response here... Wonder if a bigger actual slow mover can Archembault it's way onto the charts over the next week. Don't look now ... ladies and gentlemen, maybe a fun exit to this tortured mess. ... Well, tortured S of Glenn's Falls to PWM - not sure anyone up there has room to really complain.

Yep yep... this one just may be mechanically sufficient to overcome the speed of the back ground flow and general compression/inhibition of larger --> small -scaled wave length interference. Which is what "too fast" really means. It means having a S/W be less able to differentiate against the already high geostrophic wind - no/low differentiation = no/weaker lows... blah blah. But, these f-gen type products are lit up and provided said S/W is sufficient, it just means fast moving high impact as opposed to fast moving dampening ... like today

Things get dicey at the end of these runs ... the foreign ones. The Americans in the D7 to 12 range are interesting as well. What I'm seeing is a relaxed flow like we've pretty much never seen modeled since late October of 2018, yet, plenty of cold air around. Not just hints, either... Like, lose the -20 C and lower mass in Canada and lose the -3 TO -4 SD SPV's and we're in business. Note, winter enthusiasts don't need -20 to -30 C plumes spread out over southern Canada to cash in on winter weather. This winter has beat you over the head with why. That -3 to -12 tapestry we see out there in those time frames, when mixed up with close-able impulses ... that all changes the storm styling/complexions from low QPF powdered snow/tortured light ice and dry sleeters, to more of the blue bomb aggregate types. 'Course that's getting the storms to happen.. but, we're setting the craps table here with our fire-bets. I'm liking the loss of the EPO ridging with the rise in PNA ... At least for a time while we use up the cold left in the wake. That could signal less gradient/velocity saturation, and not having to deal with shrinking corridor impacts and needle threading headaches. The Euro has an unlikely 2-day ice storm suggested ... but all the models have the flow at 500 mb twisting about with -5 to -10 C 850s lurking above spring thicknesses in the TV back over TX ... One thing we gotta keep in mind, however, is that the sun increasing so rapidly does play havoc on outlooks as it can add diabatically and cause these "looks" to suddenly modulate - ...

Haha. Altho I argue the greater bust potential is down in this pattern ... this next one is more potent overall.

Hence ... narrower impact.

Not that anything that rolls around in my head matters ... but, it is odd to me that today could be perceived as a "screw job" - and it's not just you. The stench of it is a pall in this social mediasphere's "weather" (heh), if people admit it or not... In the absolute least, the straw-man has a heart beat there. The reason for the 'irk' is because in my humble-o, this was never a big enough deal to be "unscrewed" in the first place. Sorry to say but there is a real, at times laughable, tendency to elide negatives and cons in a given situation in lieu of the entertaining concepts and observations that (admittedly) may reign true. Then what happens? something in between or less...and this pall of screwing hangs over everything. Look, (and you've agreed with this in the past), this is a compressed fast flow, whether any meteorologist wants to admit that or acknowledge why that is a limiting factor. It narrows out impact corridors, and keeps thing moving along, and those are negates on total storm profiles and significance - they just are. Having this thing correct toward less appeal in the now-cast, fits these super-synoptic limitations perfectly really. The "correction vector" is less in this flow... Not intending to preach to the quire or lecture, or come off as holier than thou .. but I don't see a lot of objective realism in the lead up, and not alot of fairness in the post-mortem evals. I don't think Monday is going to register bigger in this pattern, much for the same reasons... But it should be more than this. Point is, if folks were equal on both pros and cons, I don't think this is as screwy as all that... for what little that may be worth.

Still ... ? Not sure I concur... No fault of anyone's or yours - not intending to bust balls here - but, this thing on Monday "might" fall victim to the compression and get squeezed into a narrow producer with less total cyclogen ... It's certainly going to be moving along at ludicrous speed too. That ain't helpin' I'm just leery about going bullish much in the same way as this one. I suspect it's like this one ... only stronger. I admit to being less certain about that extent, but 6-10" may end up being 4-8" and 2-4 more pervasively. We'll see

It's interesting looking at this (time-sensitive?) image provided by WPC ... Just how much of this thing is entirely produced by mid-level forcing, as anything associated to cyclogenesis appears quite suppressed... Weak low east of Del Marva, with a track trough situated ENE, doesn't scream in favor of the low positions offered by many guidance' I saw leading up - looks like the low position its self may bust S ... just estimating. We're actually closer to the high pressure centered near western Maine; while we brow rub over the northern extent of snows... I'm almost surprised it is snowing as much as it is from PVD to PLY where that band even exists, probably owing to the mid levels smeared NW. For me astride Rt 2, with that fog-snow (yes some aggies ..) But.. this whole structure at mid levels did have a negative elongation as was modeled in the blend so... yeah, they did okay there. All and all, feel pretty satisfied. The last entries last night seem to have verified rather nicely as Weatherwiz and I mentioned... This was slated to be a narrow corridor impactor, hauling ass! You may even be lording over your device or PC in a gray ambiance between noon and 2 pm when suddenly ... forced illumination glows the room. This is an interesting time of year... In the heart of this thing, it's deep winter by appeal. When/if the sun comes out two hours later and the wind stays light, the faux nape warmth that Kevin gets watery-eyed for, along with heated interior of his car ... really does provide two disparate perceptions that he often waxes nostalgic for. We'll see on the latter... The sun angle is climbed enough that a shallow saturation absent lift can evaporate below a weak inversion more effectively than it would in one of those the wood-smoke afternoons of early January. Anyway, we also said that sat and rad can be deceiving. It's interesting that both seemed to work out... The results this morning appear to be a blend about mid way between the high res ... plug pulling toaster party late last night, together with radar looking too neggie and ending up perhaps a little bit farther N... As was evidence(d) by the content dumped into this social media between circa 8pm and midnight ... this thing was a worse performer than what is taking place, while also still being somewhat more compacted S. Interesting

F - !? Not the dreaded minus F. Pay attention folks. Very rarely is there a winter actually worse than a failure. Wtf does that mean, F- haha

I was just going to say… Extrapolating radar doesn't snow north of New York City. But like Will and I were talking about earlier's radar and satellite and stuff can be deceiving. We'll see

How come y'all don't post these 18z Euros

mm... k, buuut... there's some large more super-synoptic scaled arguments I've had all along in mind, that sort of keep/kept me from being too bullish. I could see it going either way - still within margins of error to go only 50 % of consensus totals, and due to the endemic uncertainty with an inherent "needle threader" system and exact course and banding, having weird strike back gashing from HFD- to BED I could see that too... Barring the lesser likely, though, this "should be" a narrow impactor, hauling ass like bats leavin' hell. Translation timing alone playing a limiting factor as well... Compressed, high velocity patterns limit impacts to narrow regions... doing so with middling over all mechanical strength has left me scratching heads to find where 6-8 " come from but again,.. margin for error is bit higher. The MESOs could erroneous for convective handling... yup, but ... maybe they should've been to high in the first place.

Filter turned off again ...? j/k.... good luck with your forecast

Yeah...was comin' in here to eye-pop! man at that GGEM ... that's 1997 April incarnate -

Speak of the devil... James just saved the day! ahah

Careful I've done that before, too ... go to bed feelin' really good about Sat and Rad trends, regardless of whatever disappointment was being evaded on my way to slumber... only to wake up wonder how in the hell said Sat and Rad didn't parlay better... Sometimes those loops sorta kinda like lie? you know -