Typhoon Tip

Having said that .. The Euro was interesting at 00z.. Not so much for whether it would all go down as synoptically depicted nearing (the Equinox....) But, it does suggest there is some hope for those winter enthusiast interests that may be holding out for some sort of poetic ending. Obviously, it goes without saying..that's precarious, albeit subject to change, for being an impressive spring blue bomb. I do see rather abruptly over the last two days, spring's modulation of the hemisphere underway, tho. I suspect it's sort of muscling in and interfering with the previous evolution of the +PNA we were tracking. Hypothetical ... but it seems to me (and the Euro really illustrates this nicely) like winter bottles up (symbolic) and rotates up into the Maritime Canada up through Greenland by the end of the run, and that leaves/starts starving the PNA of gradient ... It's like we've been plagued by too much of the stuff all season... the flow relaxes? It relaxes too much! And the PNA circuitry just doesn't really get left with much to define that structure... so the collapsing ridge we see at the end of the run is merely because the foundation for it's anomaly disappears as a result. It's like spring is that lever on the bottom of an Etch-'n'-Sketch

Hey sorry - but...you know, Brian said this to me a long time ago and it makes sense when dealing with people. Firstly, this is a leisure/social -media? There are rules, but we're not in the Military here. We're not in the sanitation management services of a medical complex, either. He said he likes to keep threads clean and on point during hurried/elevated times when it matters, but with the pattern relaxing and spring staring to clearly taint things toward tulip talk ... the posture is going to relax some. Plus, who cares

Not that anyone asked but I'm not sure I understand (necessarily) why the modeling initialization has to be cow-tied to the movement of the clock in the first place ... Every reason I have ever heard sounds perfunctory if not knee-jerk replaying a familiar mantra of faux perceived limitation. I disagree - the world of technology is not a part of natural laws. We're not asking to change E=MC2 here ... It may be a pain in the collective ass for deterministic/operational weather forecasting to "re"wire the globe around something ...oh, gee, intelligent... Or, we can keep coming up with preclusively insurmountable excuses that when are put in the logic crucible they only purify to excuses to not change period. In general, there is a tendency ( I feel ..) for industrialized society "switch trippers" to trap their thinking inside of bounds of operation ...and when first suggestion for change materializes, that's impossible! No, there's no hand from god, or Quantum Mechanical principle in natural physics that says we can't call time whatever in the f we want. But perhaps this is a maverick talking Rewire the thing ... so that it's 7 am period... .Move the clocks all we want... you launch your f balloons and drop your sondes and program your satellites at that same numerical clock value, period.

Really a battle against time zone spatial relationship to the sun… there's legislation currently in states on the western sides of the time zones to drop out and stay on standard nice Society needs something to remind people what's important… The whole debate reminds me of rich people they got nothing better to do than to complain

It may be the nadir temperature for March... but in sensible arenas ... there's not a lot of difference between 15 and 6 ... Both are eye poppers relative to date - probably the same and or ballpark SD value. My point is probably meaningless because the phrase " I can't believe it ..." is a trope/colloquial expression and is a risk of being a semantic launching pad into some sort of row so forget it -

shouldn't be... Anomalous cold pokes in April bombs take place, it can happen in mid March. Boston into the teens at noon on April 7th, 1982 check year but pretty sure. ... it happens. It's one of the anomaly metrics for the NE - which by nature makes them rare. Not unheard of.

Hate to admit but that looks like diabatic annihilation on the Euro of an otherwise incipient pattern.. It's really like the sun showing up at mid latitudes and performing an abortion by heating both sides of the PNA rail tracks and destroying the gradient required to keep the gestalt of the circulation moving... Whenever you drop mechanics in, then attempt to press and ridge E, more should be conserved out of all that... Obviously we've had blizzards clear to almost May so it can be overcome, even considering seasonal change here.. .but, that run (probably in error) seems to just accelerate seasonal change by 4 weeks and teleports us in time to circa April 10th. Cut-off bowling season run amok. The best way to fix that run is (unfortunately) to NOT have a +PNA emerge in the first place... then you gee - no contention spells early release from this tortured debacle of a season. Any takers? f'n sign me up.. .Jesus Christ get this f'n thing over with! Oh well -

Hey ...unrelated topic to me throwing everyone and god under the bus because of my own baggage .. but, has anyone in here ever 'published' anything they creatively wrote? If so, can you PM me ? I have a question that's too esoteric for general Googling and perhaps you may know.

It's a deeply rooted return to the womb issue... If there's no snow storm outside to feel cozy and nostalgic about with cocoa, love and internet on the inside ... separation anxiety is expressed as disinterest and everyone in here turns aside.

Heh... Looks like fun actually .. .but nah, I'm seein' the world through tainted lens today. But, hey... at least I know it was written well -

Putting things into some sort of perspective... Today's solar is equivalency is September 30 - It really should be over ... but, climate lag/and seasonal change being the way it is ... that is the only reason that trumps the "should be over" aspect, ... But not entirely. 'Still have to be fair and grateful that the lag is part of our every-year circumstance. Because it, we can celebrate the occasional winter event this late in any calendar (solar calendar) year. Otherwise, yes yes... it's hotter compensating sun every day, whether or not the rivers of air attempt to compensate ... Ole sol's microwave emitter in sky ... pretty soon...we'll start hearing the hum - heh. Anyway, then it's Sep 29 ...24... 15 ..ever counting down, and we are in "late summer" solar while we're making plans for a blue bomb. In fact, for us middle aged adults, in the time it takes to contemplate these relativity's, it's over. Consternation and denial permeates the social media's, decade worth of time-concentrated user-ship of neurotics. That's gonna be fun ... For everyone else, we're off to suffering the worst f'n month ever invented by Earth, land or sea. I swear, late March through early May can be such f'n bore in this part of world. In fact, if the pattern over N/A is such that ever flags a warm spring over North America, that concomitantly requires NE be left out by wave spacing arguments and amplitude with all that warm over Chi-town. Meanwhile, the "continent" gets to take the warmer than normal spring to the annul banks ... while it was colder than normal here and of course everyone's unhappy because the colder the normal had nothing to do with snow - despite the perennial mantra that goes something like, " ...Well, since it won't be warm, may as well hold out for snow.." logical flaw that evades one's separation anxiety over all coveted acceptance issues... Carpe dez nuts ... god am I glad I was saddled in life with this obsession for weather! I'll tell ya, if I had my druthers... you'd be reading this op-ed piss and moan bore as its origin from a warm humid, late morning porch that overlooks the dying embers of waving fields of late winter wheat somewhere in SE Oklahoma ... The SPC outlook that day? They have us in Enhanced ... while the the 4 knot NNE pumps into Bedford Massachusetts, that putrid hand the covers the mouth of hail marry's for that warm front that is of course modeled to overcome universal fluid mechanical laws of physics and blast through by noon. Waiting ...waiting..... still waiting. Then I go to the office and I'm passing through the kitchenette ..and too short 100 $ hair-do big butted middle aged women are bantering over how spring is their favorite season. I have no idea why. I think they saw a rose in some Norman Rockwell Saturday Evening Post once, and read about some 'darling buds of May' somewhere, and that one time in five f'n years that it turned into a balmy April ...galvanized their impressions of what this time of year means for any soul imprisoned east of the Hudson. Yeah...okay, the once in five years ..maaaybe in some rationalized sense that makes it 'worth it' in the morbid sense of absence making the heart and orgasm of the experience that much more fonder. OH man,... I can remember some doozies over the years ... watching TWC back in the day... or staring at hourly obs up at UML, once I was finally dumb enough to spend a 70 grand on a state school education in this field when I had no intent of doing graduate studies, and could break the lenses of cameras whenever I used the business end's reflecting darkness for a quick hair/screen test... It was like being on Alcatraz Island, with San Francisco's cozy 48 F Bay waters between us and the warm contentinent ... close enough to be visible on the other side, with a warden just as cruel.

Maybe it was just a hiccup run .. . We've seen our fair share of those this winter season, too. It's just the hiccups have always been opposite, where one run shows the bomb, ... annnd immediately ensues the sore butt truth. Mm, yeah - I think I'd rather show a bomb for many runs and have the hiccup be less before returning. But the following pertains to the pattern handling. Eesh. In this case, we have (at least) the GEFs with a clad continuity for a robust +PNA to (perhaps) end the season, coming in with still cold in the bank (so to speak) and flo' relaxation on the 00z suite. Mostly, the period in question, ~ the 17th thru perhaps the 25th of March, was too far out in time to expect much of any cinema from the models.. The 12z Euro run's D10, yesterday, landed the 20th of March with a tantalizing impression, and the movie reel seemed to start spinning... The GEFs, they're still robust as of last night's 00z, ...although, to be fair, the CDC was always much more impressive than the CPC. That may or may not be important, because the former deals in low level wind anomalies, and the latter ... mid level geopotential height anomalies. If one knows much at all about theoretical Meteorology, those two are intrinsically linked. It may just be that a +1 SD at CPC results in a +3 SD over at CDC ... I dunno, but there is difference in the relative magnitude of each. Damn, I wanted this to be brief... but, I was not expecting the Euro to shirk the outlook as bad as it did, out of seemingly nowhere, as the operational version did at 00z. It doesn't even give the 20th a chance, despite the week+ worth of every available guidance there is known to the arts and crafts of deterministic meteorology ... hamming the interval of interest with continuity ... just when the meat of it comes into range it starts pulling the plug, not on an event mind you, but the pattern its self. The EPS (from what I can gather) didn't look much different either; it too, appears abruptly eager to use whatever super-synoptic scale forcing it can to maintain the western ridge WHILE propagating it east in such a fashion as to suggest it'll be 90 F at UML like it was on March 30th 1998! ... This is a megalodon continuity shift, and... one that if it were going to take place, probably does effect the nearer term chances in a negative way. Now... looking around... the only two factors (well, the third being a dark unappreciated humor ) that stand out to me are: a .. spring. I did mentioned this last week at one time or the other, that as we progress through March the seasonal dilation r-waves starts to skew things - mainly because they change so quickly from the disruptive influence of seasonality. b .. the MJO... it has not been very effective coupling with the atmosphere during the previous three months of winter. We've seen robust wave spaces emerge and propagate on either side of the WH ... the significance or even detection on forcing the flows, subsequently, have been dubious at best. I mean, it is a factorable influence... But, it's whether it is constructive or destructively interfering with the surrounding super-synoptic scope/scale that's about as important as the wave space its self. It's been a winter out of phase with the MJO much of the time... Right now and recently, it's been plowing/unfurling through late phase 3/4 and looking destined to end up in 5/6 over the next week to 10 days, which is perfect WRONG relative to the GEFs +PNA. [EDIT: it looks like it's collapsing, okay... ] c .. the cosmic dildo. this is the factor that steve and ray and other's cannot see eye-to-eye about... I do not wish to be drawn into that debate, ...I'm not sure I fully understand either sides position very clearly. But, it seems to me that the best way to define this winter thus far is, ' f'ed if you do, f'ed if don't ' . But this insidiously works both ways? ...it seems the CD theory of everything (eh hm) ... really just attacks one on a personal level... while apparently doing so ubiquitously (fascinating actually). So, part of that is being lucid and right, and still ending up wrong, while some how under-performing. Kidding of course... but anyway... Not sure what to think of that Euro - interesting

not to be a wise ass but maybe the translating through steeping solar angle ?

This "post warm up" signal has been there quite long... not to tout but I told folks not to discount the longer lead emerging operational systems in that Mar 17 - 25th period a couple days ago.. I was expecting this sort of model run like a late trimester - Not every long lead signal should be evenly discounted - Now is one of those times where it is worth keeping an eye on...

Yeah...tend to agree at this point. I mean we all know in the late mid range... warm-ups can so often ablate down to 18 hours 52-55 F misters with the good stuff NYC south... but there's just no markers to really retard it this time.

Thursday'll make it too if that synoptic serious of charts is right... anyone wanna bet? you'll lose... It's chilly at dawn and one wonders, do they keep track of diurnal change as a metric? Because that could be historic that day... You'd be frosting in the country side and in the low 70s by 3pm and folks keep in mind, we now get high temps on average an hour later in the day starting tomorrow. But you got +10 C knocking on the over NYC/ALB and deep layer laze faire SW flow sweeping in unabated... Kevin's got a Kleenex and lotion out for this napey shit - Course, gotta get those charts to verify -

This is like the antithesis to the Indian Summer progression later this week. It'll be guilty warm ... I wonder if Thursday overnight can even plumb 60 for lows. Those two days will eradicate all snow pack outside of those parking lot Swiss Alp piles ...clear back to Brian's latitude. It'll slam to a stop at his door and Dryslot and so forth, as there's just too much cryogenic mass above that ~ latitude. Then, I still insist looking over recent operational tone and tenors, and combining at least with the American teleconnectors ... that winter should return for a solid 10 days. What form precisely ...? Who knows, but snow should be there on a couple of different occasions. Thus, the antithetic metaphor is complete. In the Autumn, it gets cold... perhaps convincingly so.. with even a snow. Then, there's a Rosby roll-out, the pattern flips and there's a mini mud season followed by a few days in the 60s and 70s if not a temperatures of 80.

I don't gain access to individual EPS members but ... there are a few GEF individuals that hone amplitude between the 17th and 24th or so..

Not to break into the Sunday mojo ... but man... the Euro puts up a perfect day for May next Wednesday ... Every run looks a little better/polished, too... How about the +14 C 850s in deeply mixed BL pouring into CT/ W. Ma by late afternoon. That's gonna be rather abrupt... What's funny, that pattern at D10 ...ever so whispers watch out ...

Yeah, it's still there... waiting - I wouldn't focus so much on those particular dates, but post the 15th ... that looks interesting for week to 10. It's in the GEFs in both agencies, but more demonstrative, perhaps, over at CDC. Both have a rather concerted rises/complete phase change in the PNA... Going from modestly negative to a mean of perhaps +2 or even +3 SD. That is a huge mass field alteration/expectation. One such would be robust mid latitude expression of western ridging. We'll see where that leads

Y'all be arguing about this as your dying from it - movin' right along...

Yeah... agree with Scott - too early to tell if next week's Euro complexion whittles down to 20 hours of 52 F mist before refreeze ... Crucially the handling of the lead high pressure ... spatially and timing. Obviously if the high pressure retreats E... no one warm ups east of Albany much on day one of that. The sun will obviously play into that affect/off set too.. .but I've seen 850s of 15 F and temps at the surface of only 48 F with east winds in full sun in late May. And if that regime plays out... then as the front approaches we end up with 52 mist or something like that. If the high settles/retreats more south than E... different universe. Either correction at this range -

As a side-car concept to the "relative importance of sensible weather" discussion... There are theoretical works that describe mid latitudes over the continents as plausibly experiencing extreme cold waves due to warm climate change ... counter-intuitive as that may be. The focus was during the earlier phases of said change. The ideas center around oceanic basin heat surpluses triggering an increased frequencies/distribution of positive geopotential atmospheric anomalies in their eastern regions. The resulting tendency for more arc flows at increasingly higher latitudes establishes cold conveyor activity more frequently ... into the continental winter seasons. This all goes back to the earlier days of GW prediction and the primitive climate modeling (by today's standards) of the late 1980s. I'm not sure if those studies are still carried out or even followed through .. but I recall reading of this way back in the day. It was (also) contained in the earlier discussion over the thermal-haline/Atlantic ocean circulation, and how the ambient salinity can cause the G-string to collapse...etc etc.. Well, flash forward 30 years. Who knows what the status of the gulf stream is, but the atmospheric stuff seems to be a fit there over the last 10 years. Lot's of warm departures interrupted by excessive if not historic cold.. Interesting. I also recall reading along the way that GW/climate change therefrom doesn't mean "warm" days necessarily ... more like extremes ... so perhaps that's concomitant.

Pretty glaring signal persist approaching the Equinox. If that continues... don't ignore extended range eastern cyclogen -

watch it turn into a two days at 52 with fast gray streets and mist, then refreeze with a storm missing to the south... Followed by a Lakes cutter ...Then, a big bomb on the charts that just before it happens...mysteriously vanishes because of the sun's normalizing power at this time of year. Sad trumpet end to the winter.