Typhoon Tip

Euro tries to plunk a chunk of vortex down but stalls it in the upper OV... Need that to get south but ...that's about in the right spatial-temporal window there...

yeah I just don't spend enough time going and ferreting this stuff out. I thought that was euro - heh

oh duh... wonder why I didn't think to go look for European sites seeing as they're like 5 hours ahead ... oy. cool, stanks -

Not saying it has any merit but did you seee the GGEM... NJ model pop hammer... It's like each model has as separate rendition of what to do with all that instability out there with that -EPO dumping cold down... I think we got iron out what the big picture is going to settle into for a start.

Just speaking to the GEFs ... it looks movement toward more 'under-cut' -EPO style over last 24 hours ... trying to go zonal with blocking situated over top.

do y'all refer to free open-source sites for UKMET this early ...?

50s? nah... That's part of the manipulation tactic -

Nothing was supporting that in the first place - you've just been conned into placating a straw-argument ... Not sure why he does this - but sounds off like some absurdity is ubiquitous ... like to get vitriol about what he (really) fears happening maybe.. . I dunno. Kinda fascinating actually -

The problem I have with this grading practice is that it is too guided by subjectivity. If someone "digs" the winter ...for whatever reason they do, they give it good grade. If not...the opposite of course, and in either case, there's no "standardization" - it's whether they got what they wanted. Or, at best ... some corruption of fairness happens whether they are even consciously aware they are modulating their impression or not. So what of it ... I mean, duh. We all know this... But, it would be interesting if there was a standard metric that could be derived for determining the silliness of whether a winter 'passes' or not. And then... it would make it that much more fun ( muah hahahaha) to rub people's noses in their own emotional, nonsensical baggage they lay off on others in here. "This winter failed ... blah blah..." Oh no it didn't, thus forcing the bitcher to face their emotional demons and suffer like they should for allowing this crap to affect them in the first place. I love that... Sort of kidding there... but, suppose we take an average at my location, gladly throwing myself under the bus: 52 at Lowell, and 54 at Barre Falls Dam ... so, triangulating for me in Ayer ... I can assume 53 inches as a rough guesstimate of my seasonal snow fall average. Fright now ... ha, "fright" now... I like that typo - let's go with that! Fright now, as of this last evening's little over-production, I'm right around 27" in my yard on the season. I don't speak for the region or anyone else, just what I've noted. So, 27" is roughly half? Well, if 100% of a season is 53" (say) and I'm at 27 ...that's 50% of normal. 50% on any test is an F ... this winter Fails to achieve normalized snow variance. So that is at least approaching a methodic, objective way to assess a pass fail conjecture about the year to date. I don't think it is over... re-echoing those sentiments, of course! At least in my all-indicative holier than though yard... we are only a single 5" event from this getting into the 60th percentile, and suddenly ... the year passes with a D- grade. I mean ... if people want to create a separate, none mathematical system, essentially tantamount to one based on flopping five year tantrum in a grocery store line because Mother Nature said no to the pretty wrapping candy-bars set strategically at said five year old's line of sight ... there's unfortunately no one size fits all agreeable metric for that. By the way... while on the subject of seasonal totals vs what the average neurotic, vaguely functional winter enthusiast wants... I found this site I'd never heard of called "Current Results" ? I have no idea of its veracity ... but it list Amherst with 36.9" ? Doesn't that seem low? I can't find any explanation on that site but I thought that number was peculiar. Buffemville too for that matter. 41 seems shirked Central Massachusetts Average total snowfall for a year Days Place Inches Centi­metres 16.6 Amherst 36.9 93.7 23.0 Barre Falls Reservoir Dam 54.7 138.9 14.5 Buffumville Lake 40.9 103.9 23.1 East Brimfield Lake 59.0 149.9 20.3 Lowell 51.9 131.8 20.3 Tully Lake 49.5 125.7 31.7 Worcester 64.1 162.8

I was just thinking about this en route to work this morning... I've had contiguous snow pack ...albeit < 5" but a snow pack nonetheless, for over 10 days now.. .And, I'm up to 27" on the season. I'm basically one solid performing coastal CCB from this getting to within a stone's throw of average, and looking at the pattern ahead (tele's and subtleties with the operational runs and so forth) I'm not willing to dispense with the notion of getting that done. We'll see.. but (hint hint) March's first week is about a good a shot as any for seasonal recuperation -

This event over-achieved at mi casa .. Ended up just shy of 3" with .1" accretion sealing over. Now I'm not sure who said she said he said what ... but I saw on-camera Met's with "C-2" pretty much unilaterally, and the tenor in here was for less impact, too. So, this was assumed for whatever reason to less.. It's not a huge bust or anything, but it's a subtle one and a bit of an irony given to the theme of this winter. OT, I'm at 27" for the season...

It could ... The CDC PNA is indicating a different tendency out there toward week 2, though, and... the fact that those members are 'mop ended' can also be an indication for lowering confidence in that time range ... Have to see where the cluster occurs... For the record, I wouldn't think any "favorable" regime is going to last a long time ... like all of March, but by the time we get into next month, usually the winter paradigms are collapsing anyway. Plus there's proverbial "bowling" season too... These can skew what's going on -

Begrudgingly ... I admit also that the MJO in the more dependable channels is modestly/moderately strengthened in the 8-1-2 western hemmie... Which does fall pretty squarely in timing upon this spike in the PNA. Combining the -EPO ... these are not bad converging cold and stormy indicators. For once this season, the MJO may be in more of a constructive interference passage through space and time ... The AO is out of phase though... but, with the EPO being negative, we may not be as reliant (or need be...) on the former.

Not speaking for everywhere (deterministically) but... radar is presently snow-bombing that same region of southern PA so... there's some semblance of verification to that regardless of ending total exactness

Still thinking the more super synoptic scale rooted favorability for event(s) is more situated into the first week of March. Obviously there are other Meteorological events that need to transpire (per model scheduling ...) prior to the 27th... but, those appear impact manageable/forgettable. For reasons elaborated upon, yesterday, the 27th event, was a bit incongruous against the background canvas to begin with. Combining those synoptic philosophies with my own personal observation over how the Euro has an oh-so subtle, at other times more important tendency to spuriously deepen troughs in the OV going beyond the mid ranges. The overnight correction by the Euro (for me) is as much a factor of that, as it is probably a D8 system mambo in the models. Hard to separate physics from chaos at this range .. all the above.. That said, there is likely to be some sort of presence in the flow mid/late next week, as there is a lot of ensemble support in both camps for S/W spacing between 100W and 70W in general... I'm not as opposed to a narrower flat-wave amplitude in that kind of overall flow construct. It's high speed, and fairly compressed, so open wave is favored. Such as a NJ Model type ..etc, and in fact, GGEM sort of tries to get that done. The Euro oper. appears now to be the weaker ensemble member ... It seems it "could" afford some amplitude back - maybe went too far... - and it wouldn't be too egregious to do so with that flow. I just think a more middling type intensity wave is better supported, all told. Again, as I stipulated, ... if the flow relaxes some in the S and the heights pop a little more robustly amplified in the west on the heels of the 27th S/W ... this could mature into something more... I mean, all this is based on the models features being relatively stable - standing caveat emptor. After that, the -EPO cold dump into Canada seems to also have legs and it'll be interesting to see what starts to emerge in the runs as we get through the next 7 days... I wonder if there's something big or a series of events between the 27th through circa 10th of March

It was partly sunny and 70 with a Michigan mauler

Yeah... I'm a little apprehensive ... admittedly, do to that persistence... But, in my 25 years of being privy to Meteorological concepts and exposure to the field, both for science and "art" ... I have rarely seen persistence last more than 90 days. 2012 came close but the season in fact entered modulation toward spring prior to testing that ... This year is trying to broach that extent prior to winter being over and low and behold... we have a something sniffing out ..right about on the deadline... Perhaps a more profound mass-field change ...entering the last week of this month. So we'll see... Like I said earlier today, ... the 27th isn't impossible .. My biggest points of contention with that first in probably a series is that the Euro is on its own ... forgot about that, but more specifically, the Euro tends to spuriously deepen troughs when spitting then E out of 100 ... 90 W or so, passing from mid to extended range. It seems to do this regardless of antecedent dailies in the run, too. Just all the sudden, a subtle curvature over Iowa turns into a negative tilted menaces in NE and this smells a bit like that. That's all A. B, heights over the deep south and SE are running a bit lofty to allow a negative turner to close off over the Del Marva like that. Although ... I see the Euro keeps it rollin' right along and it's a fast movers ... I'll give it that... nonetheless, prior to that even happening, the heights in the south are in a destructive interference with that wave space and it should actually be getting damped ... not strengthened, as it's slipping through to the north. Sure is eye-candy though... But that's as is....? Yeah, lower the heights a tad in the south... weaken that inhibition. Pop the backside ridge in the west a little more. Doable also... If the NAO also materializes more than a mere modest 530 dm height node over the lower D. straight region..that would also help. All of these adjustments are within reach... Over all I'm liking the the last week of the month into the first week of March and probably after too... This EPO is much more supported cross-guidance species/sources... and perhaps most important of all, the PNA shifting signs may mean less loading the trough over the Great Basin with the EPO strengths in negative sign.

2019

It's a bit early ... but doable. The "corrective event" I was speaking about was more into that first week of March (nearer side of ..) ...say, 2, 3 or 4th ... But, the 27 may pan in there with that -EPO happening in tandem with the PNA rising so smartly as it is in both model systems. I'm not sure I see a lot of -NAO in that Euro run though... Their is a "semblance" of lower D. Straight blocking ...yeah, but it's magnitude? Heh... it is < 530 dm, which isn't a very significant positive SD, not nearly enough to transitively instruct amplitude in the western OV like that ... I would suggest this particular rendition the Euro is sellin' is more an artifice of that model magically coring out troughs beyond D7 too liberally like it does so often..

yeah mentioned that last night... PHL-NYC could get 4" of snow (or more) and it cuts by 2/3rds while warming over BOS... At least via the NAM...

Yeah that's fascinating ... NAM's 00z would conceivably thump PHL with a half foot of snow yet translates the same system to BOS and can't do anything but sleet before ice cream headache rains there

Problem is ... we're over stimulated. Anything other than apoplexy in the media, and shear speechless awe in the forecast model cinema, is like Oregano in our in our Kush ...

Would start a belated February Discussion II thread but not sure the enthusiasm supports ... Some changes lurking for this next 12 days ...probably into the first week of March, however. Firstly, Thursday has a shot at a sneaky gem ... relative to calendar date, a top 10 day. Keep in mind, that's relative to date. Not talking low RH 80 F cobalt blue skies with picturesque CU's, light winds and sun kissing napes... but, "down slope dandy" is prevalent and now that we are surpassed the perennial solar minimum ... these latter February > days on out to escape enters the perennial "MOS' bust too chilly" times of the year. The day dawns with grains and mist ... but mid morning, plummeting RH at 700 mb and established NW BL flow will probably cleave the skies clear pretty fast by mid morning, I've seen that look at this time of year before and the temperature usually sores. Could see that surge into the mid 50s ... possibly a lollypop 61 over SE zones. Not sure the BL would extend to the 850 mb level (probably not, ... ) but, with tempertures of +1 at Orange Mass and +4 or 5 over SE zones, the only limitation with light drying bl flow and full sun would be lingering llv inversion. 900 mb adiabat + 5F may do it. But overall, light wind, clean air post solar nadir sun on a down slope flow is borderline feverish. That as an aside... and now looking more forward, the GEFs mean is still not quite as emphatic about the -EPO as the GFS operational version. One thing I like about the -EPO outlook in general is seeing the operational Euro with a blocking node entering the picture up over the NW territories and Alaska. That's a goodly bit of cross-guidance support over all. The operational GFS even staggers the ridge node into an east -based EPO, a subtlety that is more successful in loading the Canadian shield. The EPS landing on D10 looks not as deep as other times earlier this season, but has a better 'vector' with some heights moving onshore western Canada and more slope to the flow over W o/ JB ... I call that support. Meanwhile, the PNA is trying to simultaneously flag some form of corrective event nearing the first couple of days of March, while hiding that fact - typical for this year... repeating theme of concurrent off-set signals. But, with the antecedent -EPO (assuming success therein)... there is a whisper in the wind for a season "atonement" of past injustices.. ha. Kidding of course...but, this is four days now of -EPO consistency, from multiple sources foreign and domestic ... cold loading is a good start and we'll see what happens.

probably getting some steady flurries/grains going under the radar scans ... Noticed NWS switched sensitivity mode so they're onto it... Some actual renewed rad returns showing up out of BOX scans looking NW as the NW NE vestigial mid level pivots SE ... but also some weak low-lvl convergence with lingering ivt trough as was advertised. Wintry appeal out there with that and 30 F type ubiquitous chill through mid day. Good day for Xmas shopping! ...oh wait