Typhoon Tip

Heh... coc ...right... Watch us go right into 90 F plausibility regimes - I love the general assumption if not entitlement to certain types of weather we play around with. I also love it when those perceptions fail. I love that Farside cartoon where Larson's illustration features two hapless, tattered ragged individuals stooped over a brackish water seep up under a single desert palm ... while the sun has clearly been drawn to symbolize blazing away over the scene... Instead of indulging in life, one turns his head to the other and says, " What? No cups!" I hope this stolen spring ... skips the 'cups' and goes right to a torrid hell -

Yeah ... I actually am not entirely sure what the annual NAO has been ... speaking to the last 10 years . However, I do tend to agree that we've seen an "unfair" repetition of springs that slipped backward into cool and/or "wet seemingly cool by force of misery alone" ... perhaps even exceeding climo by a little ( or a lot ). Even to the extent of stymied green up in some years - ...others have already noted the bud-to-leaf unfurling has slowed even this year in recent week(s). Something's causing that tendency to play-out. I think it's seven of the last ten years have had either below normal AMJ's ...or, the result took place as though deviously plotted to make neutral-above 'seem' negative to the senses... In the purely commiserative sense... when that happens it does feel deliberate. I almost wonder ... it's like a hemisphere that loses winter gradient and suddenly ...these neggie fields were always there but are no longer being muted. Allowed to emerge, because the primary influence yields to the secondary ...tertiary factors and so on. The atmosphere does that ... For those of us who may have learned about 'scaling equations', that process assesses orders of magnitude influence (theoretical if not observed ) on an x-y matrix ...Then derives a kind of polynomial expression with the most dominant factors closest to the x-y cross hair. Increasingly weaker influences farther down the x axis. 'Look something like this ... X = exp1 + exp2 + exp3 + exp4 + .... expn Where each expn could be some fantastically complex geophysical variable derivative ..or relatively simple one, in their own rites. Their position in the polynomial result is not based upon their complexity, ...just literally on relative ability to motivate a system. If you can imagine that ( if not know what I'm talking about...) ...I'd put the scream gradient saturation issue I've seen over recent years near the dominant side ... or 'exp1' in that pseudo example. And maybe the -NAO around exp3 or even 4... The EPO may be exp2... which makes intuitive sense, because the Pacific Basin is a ginormous force in the general circulation ambiance of the planet, and since the EPO is essentially a dumpster for whatever is exhausting (wave dispersion) out of the pacific-atmospheric coupled environment, it's influence should be set as more dominant than the NAO, in general. But, now that we've relaxed the screaming gradient saturation ... exp1 goes away... Or perhaps it's relative magnitude shifts much further to the right... Thus, exp2 becomes exp1, and 3 pops to 2 and they all shift. These are also moving parts ... they don't shift in order either... they can all be changing in significance by multiple expression positions ...some staying the same while others move around them... and on and so forth... It's actually a fascinating technique to bring the initial observation --> hypothesis phase of the scientific process and have it be more than merely guess. Believe it or not... natural postulators, or those that are good at synthesizing ideas from available data, may do a good bit of that innately in the abstraction of the mind. I'm babbling... Simply put, as the gradient of winter has relaxed, the under-lying 'tendency' for -NAO (-EPO) may be surfacing/taking over... I tend to agree with Weatherwiz there that climo and jet destruction/migration, concomitant with warm season onset ... proobably moves -NAO's off exp1 at some point too. And who knows what the scaled equation of the summer looks like... By the way, the AMO is supposedly flipping negative in the multi-decade oscillatory trend analysis... and usually, the tripolar SST distribution correlates with the -NAO... so if it helps, that could be why there is an underpin - I tell you... speak of the devil, massive changes on the 00z Euro... It's one run, but the 850 mb temperature complexion is much, much warmer everywhere from Montana to NF along the 45th parallel, with a general vibe of the -NAO tendency to be less dominating...

Horror story on the 18z oper. GFS... Basically ... 45 F mist and rain from next Wednesday morning until through the following weekend.... I think I would actually sacrifice the vagarious nature of the weather and the romantic uncertainty of snow storms in the charts and the whole game we play ... if it means controlling the weather in such a way to jam that f'n bullshit right up god's ass!

agreed - hopin' it holds But yeah that day's been flagged a few times by the Euro and others as an islet of salvation upon a sea of utter puss... Well, I guess 60 was my high here in easter/central Mass today while dry... So it can be worse but, we just haven't a decently warm spring in years. We've had some warm spells but nothing that's stuck ...and by and large these last five years they've ended up sliding back the other direction most of the times. This year is just adding to that growing list... Now I don't know what the return rate is on 'nice' ( subjective but say numerous 70 to 80 early warm days ) type spring - I gotta figure is relatively rare, anyway, but I still think we're statistically late here. I'm also beginning to notice systemic circulation changes that I feel are related to climate change - but won't go into that to spare eye rollers there reasons to continue voting for the Trumpian ilk of morally flexible, conditional intellects...

Pretty much ... those that blanket apply statistical spreads like that without qualification ...usually trying to sell something. Well - Anyway, elevated nocturnal lows can certainly skew a diurnal mean toward positive ...and, well, since 97 % of us carry on in our daily lives between 2 and 5 am outside of the home and out amid the elements, we can clearly see the usefulness of having elevated lows making it "appear" like a warm month. Aside, not sure anyone really offered up a debate about averages? If so... okay - no argument from me. Not sure I know of any source that did, either. So it was warmer then normal. The issue is/was ... shit-stuffed-down-throat weather. Nothing else. When it's clad, empirically shown to be 21 days of measurable...with cloud products anomalously large the whole way,... and it's wet and cool when people really are carrying about in their daily lives, ... that means a lot more.

In fact... I mentioned this late last November but of course... it wasn't really acknowledged, but it appeared the majority of cold snowy outlooks were engineered in this social -media and/or the ilk of patrons thsat dine in it... Actually.. to be fair - there is some conflicting source material from them... still, there were local fan -favs in here that were ...hate to say, more the outliers

They did? "November 2018 to October 2019. Winter will be milder than normal, on average, with above-normal precipitation and near-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will occur from late December into mid-January and late January into early February and in mid- to late February."

maybe we can cane the bastards...

Oh it's hell - ... just call a spade a spade. Not that you're not - just sayn' I mentioned in the other thread before people got so disgusted with the weather they started a new thread to make it all go away ... that there's even airs of 2005 about that mid/extended look. The [possible] savior being in that "mid and extended" nature of the outlook - as in, time to dismantle it... Otherwise, pray kumbaya ... It sucks. We gobble up May stolen away and it's a substantial part of the warm season ...gone. It's no different than the antithesis ...like a 2012 winter - although that was more extreme in that particular direction..

agreed...

somewhat time sensitive but check out these contrails SW of the Louisiana coast over the open Gulf as they seem to slice the sky ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-New_Orleans-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Is that 1995 ... ? I think I remember that one. Came through just post dawn where I lived at the time, Middlesex County here east of Worcester in Mass. Mostly it was straight line winds that woke me as they turbine-howled through trees being with shredding leafs material flitting airborne beneath a very usually wide under-shelf of knotting scud. There was some distant thunder but nothing severe really took place beyond that initial pulse of outflow. I stood in the street doing my weather dork gawk thing, and managed to just catch sight of a rope funnel some distance away as it dangled to about half way down... That was the year of that heat apocalypse in the Midwest. Chicago head-counted a huge death toll attributed to that heat event... Livestock over several state areas were basically boiled right in the pastures and laid over dead. That's when I started privately musing ... why is it that heatwaves are not one of the fab five? Those of course being, Tornadoes, Blizzards, Hurricanes, Lightning, and Floods. They are just as quantifiable... and empirically impacting - it's idiotic they are not. They should be construed right along with these other killers. But don't seem to be, nor when there is ever a heat index-casualty-related event do they appear to be registered as a natural disaster. Maybe things have changed in recent decades ... but as recent as 2012 ... there was a heat wave that certainly should have been described as a natural disaster - maybe it was? It may sound silly.. .but seeing beef in packages going for 15 bucks a pop for a pound because the kill-off was so extreme ... seems right there. Sorry..wildly digress... Anyway, the closest we came to tasting that heat ... I remember the night before that derecho ( or it's collapsed outflow remnant) came rolling through, we were 87 F at 11 pm on a bank thermometer in down town Maynard Mass... ( small town west of Boston) and recall thinking .. that might be the hottest I'd ever seen a temperature at that particular hour of the night. The following afternoon after that derecho we did make 95 ...and that might have even been the hottest it got that summer - I remember feeling sort of left out and ripped off as a heat pattern enthusiast for having missing out on that incredible Midwest synoptic event. Heh, ...missing out because it's New England - go wonder...

Not speaking to whatever source you are using to make that assessment ... But there does not appear ( from what sources I use.. ) there is any warm front differentiating thru CT like that sounds ? In fact, the discrete pressure pattern depicted across most meso models have a pretty discerned BD boundary pressing into HFD around or just prior to 2pm... which in reality could be two hours sooner given to the nature of surface resolution ... even in these finer meshed models... In fact, the 3km NAM really has CT inside the pressure rises everywhere by 18z. Either way, this boundary then makes SW towns by 4 or 5 pm ... So in total, the impetus is not a warm front making it through anywhere ... more like a back-door cold ... well "colder" front probably slamming shut back screen doors and extending flags backward... probably, with a thick stratus when it happens too.

GFS ...particularly that 06z version, precariously flirts with 2005 .... that's almost a redux ... the only difference is, we don't know if that -NAO western limb REX configuration is semi-permanent.. But at least for 48 hours, that's an analog. The worst April ever experience by any man woman or child, living in the cold dudgeon prison that is New England was the month of May, 2005. Subjectively ...the greatest sore-butt spring month of all time. 15 some-odd consecutive days of 42 to 46 F afternoons over 39 F nights, with three distinct acceleration events of NE wind and rain-lashed gales penetrating deep inland, with even grapple and noodle flakes reported at FIT and the Worcester Hills through mid month. Between the 20th and the end of the month ... no hurry to clean it up, either...as 50 F mist and shrouded ceilings persisted, allowing very little if any sun at all, until June 1st - 4th. What happened was ... a western limb NAO, much like you see in the 300 + hour range of the GFS' 06z run, set up over top of near coastal trough couplet, and that regime was so stable that it simply could not break down. The N/stream would upon occasion ... dangle some S/W mechanics through the Lakes that would get deposited into the backside of the deep layer M/A vortex, and it would re-deepen the total structure and retrograde slamming waves of wind and cold rain in the New England... Three successive times that happened with no intervening fairness of weather to report. Thankfully ...this is over 300 hours away and we are saved by the lack of confidence this time.

If we can conjure that 00z Euro position just a couple hundred miles NW at D7 ... Weatherwiz gets his tornado testicles dropped

Blue bomb on the D11 Euro ...

Yeah these Sonoran Release events really make it huh

Any explanation why "Any Severe Probabilities*" at all stops at the other side of Kevin's lawn ...effectively leaving him out of it by all of a blade of grass ?

Fwiw - adding to the commiseration ... Harvey's broadcast last night, he seemed to feature a historic achievement ... I just caught it - so check this ... - but it appeared Logan broke a record for number of days in April with measurable rainfall at 20 ... The previous was 19 ... If that's true, there's empirical data to support this as being legit beyond mere perception. No flooding ... beyond yard mallards taking advantage prior to the ground thaw -type puddling, either ...So those that engage via general-purpose entertainment circuitry had those wires cut too... That's really a carry-over ...almost 'affectation' of the winter. We've had trouble getting things to 'entertain' - if that makes any sense. It seems there is a tendency to dumb -down events toward mediocrity .. pedestrian and uninspired. I think as far as winter goes, a lot of that was because of the fast flow contamination we've been dealing with since global warming's accelerated curve began bumping into the hemisphere's desperate attempt to cool winter heights. We keep ending up with surplus sloped heights between 35 and 60 N in recent winters ...going back 10 years really... blah blah 'nother physical debate... But it's a detraction from cyclogen. Oh, we get bombs still... it's not a total detraction ...just that the fast nature of the flow does tax on kinematic interaction and make outcomes less impacting do to short residence cycles, but also ... shearing ends up more inhibitory. So what happens here... we relay from that kind of hemisphere into a slacked gradient -NAO ... Where's the luck... I fail to see how the previous four months of speedy flow inhibition has much to do with situating slower velocity cut-off ridges at high latitude without some kind of roulette chanciness but ... who knows. Winter was robbed... now, spring is robbed... by apparently, disparate causality so it seems.

actually ... the Euro isn't terrible beyond D7 ... I mean, if one wants 2010 to walk through the door you're not likely getting that arrival ... but the charts offer some faux mild day efforts -

I hear ya ... well in support of any commiseration effort through this folks. And no... no big storms... Just theft ... a heist of spring, stolen away by misery's big interminable governance. But, even in this sea of puss weather pattern, there are islands... Like I said, it may not be sustained but there is an early signal here to salvage Saturday... Man, if it were 73 F with partly sunny sky and light/no wind, it would just be weird -

Yup ... I just threw up some annotation effort to help synoptically describe how your generalization there contributes to our plight ... That sort of result may dictate May ...or until further notice. These late -NAOs ...they are really toxic man - they do absolutely nothing good for anyone. You ain't snowin if your neurotic enough to hold or even covet hope... and you definitely are not getting f'ed outta anything spring appealing... Just think... there are probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 million souls residing E of the Hudson and N of Cape May NJ ... with numbers so large, someone in there is lubing up with hand lotion over 42 F light rain ... I guess you wait long enough, you get the weather you dream about, huh - This is why the first million dollar after taxes I've procured ... a substantial amount of it is going to be purchasing a separate piece of realestate so where far away from this asshole geography between April 1 and May 20th of every year...

Oh pleezy weezie, with sugar on top.. make Saturday be at least a temporary reprieve. ...a light at the end of the tunnel for this immediate week of torment. ..There is a sneaky signal for a top 20 if not top 10 day. The Euro flags a 'COL' afternoon ...basically, light and variable wind. But under a partly sunny look and 850 mbs of 10 C. If so would support low 70s under equivalent August 15th sun irradiance. Heh.. I'm such a dweeb in the spring; I follow and track 'nice' weather chances in the spring like the red-eyed neurotic 'carpet surfacing' snow snorter addicts do in December. haha. But seriously that day is also flagged as a possible gem in the GFS version as well.. It has a weak ridge axis situated roughly eastern NY at 18z ...with weak low exiting the outer waters of the GOM ... which puts the region in a laze faire gradient vector pointed ESE through the boundary layer... 850s similar around 10 or 11 C. 700 RH is marginal for ceilings,... but with a general light kadabatic flow we can probably edge that optimistic... MOS is 71 as it is, some 10 above climate for D5, a circumstance that could be holding that down some. We'll see if holds and I'm not sure what the Euro's cloud products look like but 70-75 with nape sun and light wind for a day perhaps ... That's the way May is set up it seems .. a return base-line shit smear pattern. We've just wended our way into either an out-and-out -NAO ...or one that is mimicking one by forcing the 50/50 low persistence... So long as that vortex is meandering there, and these ridges attempt to bulge NE into New England.. this is likely to set up: ... all that does is intensifies the surface counter -vector. This may be one of the more pernicious versions of that I've ever seen... I mean heights over southern NJ are soaring into mid 580s dm... and there is a whopper BD presentation in the surface pressure pattern in that vicinity with 850s over top that would support almost 90 F ... but they'll be 48 F with drizzle because of that.