Typhoon Tip

If this were the only guide... we're heading for an early run at 80 again ...

And seeing that D10 Euro with a spring bubble all over the OV/TV down to the Gulf, with a deep western trough, along with a total and absolutely perfectly wrong r-wave configuration for winter in the east like...everywhere, ugh ... fine

Yeah ...I can certainly understand why the winter weather enthusiast may be particularly disenchanted this morning... ha. I mentioned this yesterday ..day before, but the idea for the last week of Feb into early March was for two fold, pattern relaxation + plausible climate expression for season ending blocking. It's hard to say if that's absolutely impossible in total; if it took place, we still would run through a two to three week period where improved cold cyclone performance chances and so forth. But the overnight runs et al seem to really go out of their way to make that vision less likely to occur. The relaxation part is much higher confidence... There is a reduction in the isohypses counts from middle Canada to the Gulf of Mexico latitudes over our side of the hemisphere, but what is interesting in a not so enjoyable way to the cinema seeker ( heh ), is that the pattern is still a giant piece of utter shit. It's really just taking the same R-wave distribution, and relaxing it; but the vestigial structure is unchanging, and is a distribution that is really pretty awful. It's amazing to get an entire winter with no pattern evolution. That's a first for me. Since that early event in Dec, as far as I can surmise ...the pattern has not deviated - it relaxed for 10 or so days a month ago, but the underpinning look has not changed. interesting... In any case, the American ( cdc and cpc ) have never shown a good teleconnector spread since Dec btw - a point I've also made at times ( and ignored at times...) the whole way.

it's a funny battle on the Euro - like going to a derby ... I mean, that big high and it smashes the low right through it like that... But, the ridge is still too far west for a east coastal commitment on this run

Mm hm

Actually ...the American teleconnectors don't really flag that ... So, maybe a signal will emerge, who knows... but its a much easier assumption there will be a ridge with seasonal homage to spring on that day - heh

That's the kind of changeable drama one lives for ... that 300 to 306 hour GFS is fantastic in that regard. Goes from 40 F with cat paws at ORH (300), to 8" and post flash frozen powder in near 0 visibility 6 hour later... Hey, happens all the time, right ?

oh ...guess you did.. Goes without saying, it's more probable that there is a kind of physical marker our there around that time for an index/pattern change event, sans all details or even system type - the models will do that. A 'vulnerable' period gets filled in with 'computer imagination' when it's way out there in time.

Did you see the holy shit eye-popper planetary wave event out there around the [ highly likely to happen ] 300 hour GFS ...

You just mix it up... Problem is obvious; everyone dies and there is end to all this that is inexorable, and knees are part of that, ...as is everything in the body... the sun and planets..etc. But, we can conserve things and make them last longer and get more enjoyment out of the journey, if we employ some common sense and modulation based on science and personal limitation and so forth. Example, I figured out that if I Elliptical for 50 minutes at level 14 on day one, then on day two ... stationary bike for 50 minutest at level 10, then day three...run 4 1/2 miles... by day four, I can Elliptical again because it's been four days since I did and those particular muscle aren't bitching about it... SO, I take a day off every ten days or so, but otherwise, this rotation with some light free-weight work and abs, keeps my weight down under 200 and that feeds back to helping joints and so forth from that wear and tear. And everything else is improved under the hood with also a willingness to explore healthier dietary sourcing... blah blah... not intending to preach...But, we should all be determining what our personal bio-physiological limitations are, and working to just below that level - anything else is bullshit, unless you are chained up in a dungeon.

I believe so... I've had better personal success anticipating Pacific circulation tendencies by considering whether the WPO --> EPO ( circuited through the northern arc of the total basin space obviously ) with time lags. I've seen these bigger negative EPO index progs, fail more times when the WPO was positive ...and vice versa ( succeeds ) when the WPO was falling and slipped negative ( or even just falling is usually good enough), first. I mean like everything in correlation and causality in this atmospheric maelstrom, there's exceptions and there are no 1::1 between indices... But, the stronger correlations tend to have a kind of "connective tissue" like that. etc.... It's like a recurving Atlantic hurricane season lends to +NAO state in early winter as Lance Bozart et al statistically showed years ago - the link there is a the dumping of latent heat into the Icelandic low tend to curl up into the lower arctic domain and you end up that way... There's all kinds of these loaders around - ...If the WPO tanks obviously negative and lasts ... I take an NP/EPO downward modulation more seriously than if these latter attempt to do so without the leading WPO is all - ... but I don't ignore them altogether for that lower percentage occurrence(s). Heh...just jugglin' the indices

OH I don't know... I just know that the WPO is partially motivated into index changes by the torque budget and the flow orientation coming off the massive Asian continent - which can be a bit complex with several massive mountain cordilleras and what have us completely destroying any laminar flow types at planetary scales... yikes! But, the flow still tends to be NW in the N. Japan Sea and there are big winter storms and NE plume loading in north Japan ... origin roughly Kamchatka/far eastern Siberia...

Heh... no thanks. More power to you but ... we can have a severe rare events here regardless - I realize you're being partially tongue-in-cheek, but goes without saying, snowing on April 7 doesn't mean anything to a lightning bold on May 10 ... Unfortunately, there is no 'want' or fulfillment therein in this climate up here. We kind of have a "geological tuck" circumstance over eastern N/A really... Particularly N of the Va Capes (roughly) and all over eastern Canada and the Maritimes down through New England. The normal torque budget of the wind has a built in anti-cyclonic curl that's always there, ... offering a folding force that wants the flow to bend N ... and NE at least excuse. It's probably why we BD so frequently here... we can drill it into small scale causality...and be right - but technically, that foundation is sort of there because the prevailing N-hemispheric westerlies naturally want to turn anti-cyclonically around the continents... The have the same issue in eastern Asia/Japan, too... The flows in these regions rise up (tendency ) in latitude as they encounter the land, then...around a flattish arc and that tendency then descends upon exit. SO anything that happens inside there has that constructive (destructive) interference going on relative to the small details taking place. They don't backdoor in Seattle or San Francisco nearly as frequently for a reason...

That's plenty... Under the right conditions, sure it is. In fact, routinely on radiatively cold mornings at mi casa ... I leave the driveway in the valley at dawn ...it may be 22 F on the dash therm, and as I wend my way through Devens...the elevation changes by 30 or 40 feet, and it'll be 27 F... then, back down to 23 F at the Nashua River ...sometimes with ground fog, then back to 31 F out west toward 190 S.

Ha ahahaha... word In my own proclivities to lament the futility of winter as February's age on are only new to new users, I can honestly say, if this all went 82 F until next October 10th, I couldn't be happier. I mean, don't folks get enough abuse? haha... But I'm still not sold that we won't get a cruel reminder here a couple of times over the next three weeks - it looks shaky now, but I feel my arguments around late season climo for blocking is clad enough that with an AO that is easing down, there's possibilities.

You're reasoning after the bold aside for a moment ... the seasonal trend is a tough metric to bear at this point. It's really unrelenting. What makes it downright - dare we say ... - "outre" at this point, is that it is doing that west bias thing regardless of any kind of pattern augmentation/permuation that is more or less readily observable. But, that said, ...the underlying "pattern" really hasn't deviate in my estimation - there have been changes in the gradient at times... But the r-wave distribution ( space and in time...) really hasn't deviated since that gig in earlier December. I mentioned a couple days ago ..that I thought the end of this month into the first couple weeks of March had a chance to really see that pattern change ... heh, about half that expectation is currently being met in the bevy of recent runs - particularly the overnight suite showed really coherently by as near as D4 ... about 2 to 3 isohypsotic reduction from the lower latitudes to the 60th parallel over our side of the hemisphere. That means the geopotential gradient has slacked off by early next week ... And with that, the velocities lower everywhere, ...the southern stream has a chance to conserve S/W mechanical wave spacing without getting crushed and sheared into oblivion because the planetary torque isn't already used up in the PV from hell! ...and the AO is falling as an index measure of that happening... That's all well and good, but what stands out to me about the overnight runs is that the longitude position the ridges and troughs ( R-wave distribution in space and time ) are unchanged. They just have less wind and gradient flowing around the ups and lows. So all this means, stronger storms ...moving slower, but probably running along the same cyclonic conveyors and well..guess what, that's exactly what we are left with next week. The western ridge is too far west to support a fuller Miller B realization - from what I see... And with the velocities ( ambiently) lowered, there is less "stretching" to compensate a less than optimal ridge-trough long-wave structure... It's like - hate to say ... - it's a believable D6/7 butt-bangin' as there's less theoretical reasons to argue against it. If that ridge in the west bumps closer to the front Range longitudes... then we'll talk. But if anchors over the western cordillera or even west coast like it is in the means, this low probably corrects even more west in future guidance. There is one caveat here: I'm not sure the N/stream is being handled right... I could almost see this thing correcting toward an early Chicago curl as a deep low that then rots and fills over two days spitting lows that run out south of a failed warm frontal cool sector that's "might" be corrected toward greater arming surface pressure over Ontario... That could satisfy the mid latitude R-wave argument that way, too -

Most in here could use that life style change. I nice three mile run, weight lifting caboosed by a 20 minute fast paced, inclined walk on a treadmill at a gym. Anything that gets one's heart rate up to 120+ bpm (relative to age) and is sustained for 30 minutes, releases endorphins. These are precisely the same types of endogenous opioid neuropeptides ... ( haha but true) that gets released in small amounts by a big bomb on a D7 Euro chart - seriously...That outre sort of 'good mood' one feels for an hour after seeing that storm in the cinema of the model run? That's the naturally occurring opiods at work. The only problem is, it is utterly unsustainable because that becomes a dependency on a source that does not provide that 'drug' often enough. It's unhealthy ... These "JOY" hormones are naturally occurring, and help one feel well-adjusted and more able to handle times of stress, lowering anxiety, improving overall mood and well-being. Those that engage in regular physical activities are getting that the right way. This parlays 'synergistically' to an overall improvement in health and vitality. And the incredible bonus? Those improvements mean others around them are naturally more tolerant of their bullshit yayyy, because they are shoveling less of it - and the tenors of this and social media et al improves markedly. Ha... but, one can modulate this stuff more dependably without relying on the complete vagaries of the winds in the model runs.

Euro shifted the total 00z solution E by some 300 miles ... Jesus... lost on y'all also, the incredible 'subsume phase' synoptic evolution and at this range... Heh, it's lecturing a empty room at this point I guess

The apoplexy in here is delicious ... The storm next week ...fwiw and whomever is lucid enough to read this, really isn't part of the same pattern advertisement slated for more that last week of the month into the first week or two of March. This one wasn't ever really supposed to be - although, I will admit that the underlying 'canvas' has a relaxing look already, so it may be a transition type of thing. There's that.. but also, adding to uncertainty is the double-wave total structure of that evolution. There's some interference going on there ... If the space between them opens up a bit more, than we get more cold draining in behind the lead and sets table with more BL inhibition and forcing toward the coast eventually evolves. Or, it needs to dampen out more, and let the high in Canada get us to the same BL conditioning that way. This 12z run decides to play it both directions...running up the earlier wave too close in time with the following, such that BL is scoured out and the follow-up system then has less forcing and ends up west in total. If all that were not enough... discussing scenarios over a D6/7 event is a bit of a pop-cycle headache anyway. But that's why hands are thrown - because of the utter certainty at D6/7, right? haha

I don't know... it's not an overwhelming signal, either. Wiz' or other idea detractors should stick with that imho. But the NAO is trying to slip downward, as is the EPO ...in the American agencies. I'm not sure about the EPS, but other's have posted material that suggest so. It is possible that the AO is is merely being 'pulled' down in index value because these subordinate field regions that over lap its domain happen to modulate down. But it doesn't matter if the AO is perfect -3 anyway. The fact that it is shaving a lot of SD while the EPO/NAO arc may be neutral-neggie by week 2, ...that is still a better probability domain for winter enthusiasts in mid February model outlooks.

Not sure I follow you here... what's 'too easy' - And no, not necessarily - forgive me if I'm wrong, but it "sounds" as though you are failing to allow 'emergence' in the modeling. And by that, I don't mean the fractal variety; I mean, the physics of the system now, processed through equations of motions, and thermodynamics over time... emerge those states of indexes out in time. That's a seamless process - it may seem like it has temporal boundaries at times, but actually...it's a fluid. So you are not going to necessarily see shit on D 2'd rmf up diamonds on D 8's ... It may take until D 5, 6 or 7 for the turds to start gemming -

I try ... actually I'm pretty good at changing on dime these days. I wasn't like that when I was kid...oh, through my 20s. I needed winter to inspire fear, and summer heat to bend rail-road tracks ... tors and canes and earthquakes, dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria. As I turned middle age, I'm really into curiosity more than anything else, and can find that in lesser drams just as well. If we are getting igloo'ed into our homes by some historic thing in early February, I'd actually be amazed if we put up a 80 F ten days later over mud, because that is interesting on whole to me. It's definitely a much healthier and ...'sciency' perspective, don't you think? I also admit to having at least some intro-seasonal preference to some degree, sure. I'm going to sit here and claim that no winter is fine - that's boring. Boring is hard to get over in any dimension. Simply put, if this thing fails and we end up March 2012'vy yet warmer, I'd have forgotten about it inside of a short days. That's all. From now through about March 21 I'm pretty much in my hypocrisy period of the year.

All ensemble EOF methods from multiple guidance agencies depicting a 4 to 5 SD dump of the AO... that's a A B, ...season ending blocking has some precedence in climatology. It doesn't have to be major, either...just timed well with other factors. Then together can create a kind of 'synergistic' feed-back ..i.e., constructive interference, and then that climate signal expresses more if so. Think, two small 2-order waves super-impose and the end wave is 5 ...not just 4. Something like that as a metaphor C, the pattern persisted +AO and the typical mortality on pattern is 45 ... maybe 60 days, and we near the 60 day...so, there is some typology that lends to the notion that the AO/PV really is/are slated to deconstruct a bit. Typically when that happens, you also get a blocking node response ...because when the seam takes place, there is a transient latent heat surplus toward the Farrel Cell. You basically have three factors there that are super-imposing over the next three weeks. It doesn't mean cryo-apocalypse either... Just that instead of sloping the interference tendencies toward failure, we have a chance to pass through a season ending success bias. Which is far in a way an improvement over the last 60 days, don't you think? Or, we can just knee jerk doubt and sans objectivity because we either hate winter and just want tropopause fisting CBs, or... are too disillusion-addled inconsolable pieces of shit. Kidding a little there of course..

yeah I know - credit where ever ...etc etc. My thing is that we've seen 'signs' all season, and exactly 0 have really panned out since early December - and some of them have been truly solid and convincing, too - This one I feel has the uniqueness about it as I described that "perhaps" lends more credence than it's duck-hunt predecessors - I just didn't bother to mention it until there was more backing it... blah blah. The other thing is that we've been pushing off "better patterns" since early January... and the early month calls "sounded" like the same shit to me. Again, I needed more to back this -

Yup...definitive and coherent overnight trend toward ( ...not away for a change ..) the expectation of lapsing +AO in lieu of (eventually) more meridional flow structures across the whole hemisphere, from all guidance sources, roughly a week + ...hint, I don't think we have to wait until March. I began advertising this my self four days ago, so yes repetition but the re-iteration is necessary. This isn't just a pattern change ( imho ). It is one landing on top of that tendency in climatology for blocking in early to mid spring, and the two together is constructive interference. The reason for the latter is also dually supported in its own rite for being at the end of a progressive bias/longitude flow type - those zonal gradient rich patterns tend to yield to a counter-balanced curvature bias to some varying degree that may last a week or ten days; so that conceptually lends credence. So, we have some empirical and indirect assumptive reasoning to support a regime change ( whole-scale ) as Scott surmised. As to the dailies, ..there appears to be a two wave-space format being handled by the guidance, each model relative to their own bias tendencies. The 192 ( D8 ) GFS has a large gap between the pallid (yet gaining strength/trend in guidance) lead wave along the eastern seaboard, the main player back doing a Denver job..The Euro has the lead wave stronger ( a bias tendency it has in that time range), but also has the Rockies way east.. prepping a stem-wound proper Nor'easter; it's pattern synoptic evolution et al may be over amped. So, it seems the GFS is too stretched, and the Euro is too strong: sound familiar? Meanwhile, we have to manage that uncertainty while these pattern augmentations discussed above are concurrently taking place and certainly muddling things more. It's not ridiculous to envision an event next week ..and the lead could become dominant and swap out, too - there's that. It's possible that the two bodily come east and act like one protracted event, a.k.a. Dec earlier this season. It is important to view/anticipated next week uniquely That is a pattern flavor we have not tasted this season *if* *if * *if* the vector of this pattern change verifies! if so ...I'm thinking the pattern change starts this weekend with that deep south height recession... The AO may still be rather perchy at that time, but running down hill. If the south recedes, that lowers the total gradient from that direction, and things start slowing down sooner than we think, which may be why the models are fiddling with next week as more of non-sheared real player in the east. That Euro run ( I'll admit ) was a sight for eyes that have not seen candy it too long. heh.