Typhoon Tip

OH, that's a flag taut-ing screen door slammer BD signal there on Saturday all the way ... Talking 35 kt pulse and tree tops swaying. That overall synoptic evolution with that sort of big deep impulse rotating down and through the Maritimes and its backside mid level gravity well confluence is going to pile up the mass of Jupiter at in the lower levels and send it's gelid hell to Maryland in that look. I could almost see that strata decking in with 48 F at Lowell Saturday by 2pm... with Kevin claiming the BD's never going to get there when it's already 50 miles past 'im. I'm being hyperbole but yeah...I'd go under on the cooler, too to be honest. That's the best the resolution the current technology can see and if it is that coherent, at this time range, with the detail of curved pressure contouring that looks like the front of a spilled bread batter lobing in from the NE, it's probably a cold fist in the lowest 200 mb quite a bit under-justly depicted - cold! The only way we get out of that is to have the governing eddie just not work out that way with that Maritime impulse and backside confluence. That said...it looks sooo boringly typical frankly. We are on the doorstop of a hemispheric heat look, so what happens? We get 30 hours of heat, then we recess back to bone cold ...only to agonize when the warm front turns back around a day or two later. It like always does that total evolution... Starts to heat up...get a warm afternoon, pay some kind of persecution tax where everyone else east of Mississippi gets days of heat but we have to suffer 36 hours... Heat comes back ahead of the cold front, we effectively lost out on longevity.

Could be ... I mean can't be high confidence from this far out, but, sometimes after a cool 40 days you'll correct things - whether in a couple of passes or in the aggregate.

I'd say looking over the hemispheric metrics we have 20% chance for an above ... perhaps much above normal period of time between the 25th of May and open-ended TBD. 20% pretty dern high for this far out in time - GEFs tele's came on board and are well matched by those abroad, though typically weakening in their coefficients, however the EPS is simulating a pervasive and very robust geopotential departure that is in concerted agreement ... and has been in wait for many cycles.

Right - or a road trips... Cloudy, dry and 70 ...

I'm just amazed ... I thought that some how ...some inkling of a way, another shoe would fall on this week and maybe this Euro run being right on top of matters might get us more influence from that thing ... but nope. Every run just gets less and less and now it's hard to discern how that directly affects anyone NE of NYC at all.. Considering where we were five days ago with that - wow. I mean yeah ...one can say, 'well, it was a day five outlook' - true... But climo for this region supports this happening NEVER

Buffalo gnats .. we don't seem to get those down here in quite the swarm annoyance that y'all seem to cut the air with up there. I wonder why ... We get regular gnats but ..I haven't really ever noticed being bitten by them so I can only assume our gnats are not the same. I think gnats and buffalo gnats/black flies must be a different. But we do gnat more in late spring here than July... Actually, shortly after I entered my car close to dusk last night there was a skeeter bobbing around trying to get through the glass - we got that and the gin up of 'EEE' to look forward to... That, plus, I was reading that tick borne illness are likely going to be a big problem - though that's not garnering any headline space now, no.

It's funny how we all have our thing... For me, I don't really care about the direct sun 'as much' as I do the temperature. That's particularly true during the spring when I'd prefer to have on with the warm season, ...yet at times we recess ... If it's wet while that's happening, forget it! ugh. I'll take a 70 F day with orb disk through elevated haze and thinning OVC, which describes today where I am, and it's really nice. Other's seem to really want the blue with lazing sun to get there emotionally.

I mean I'm sorta baffled at this thing's failure to do what every system between March 15 and June 15 has done since Pangaea broke apart... One does not ever see hints of catastrophic cool misery on the guidance and end up with utopia anywhere in this god-forsaken geography. Seriously tho, if one pays attention to the isohypses, we actually never even really get into any influence from that deeper tropospheric ordeal that lodges into the TV ... And by the time it could, it's just a TUTT really that's not even closing a contour as a dent.. . The GGEM and GFS operational both have a pretty spectacular BD signature for Saturday now...Not sure if this was present on prior runs but I'm just noticing it now either way. I gotta figure, we miss this thing as verboten and then pay dearly with with 48 F PSM air fisting bums while it's +12 C at 850 that afternoon - mm hmm..

I was just noticing that same vis imagery/looping showing the clearing is really accelerating S .. May actually make it here to Rt poop before sundown... and also, ahead of the definitive line now entering the latitudes of CNE proper...there are thin regions in NE Mass/S NH... Those temps in Mass are too cool though

Yeah ... I'm with Will ... better off this way because his being "wrong" about the temperatures means we're in a relative ( though still shit-eating) win scenario with only cooler than normal but lots of sun. Although interestingly NAM MOS has bounced to 71 at KFIT on this 12z run, as early as tomorrow (Tue) afternoon here in the interior. What's interesting is that Wed is now cooler despite even more synoptic metrics indicating unabated blazing solstice sun. My guess is that 64 gets squeezed closer to 70 too ... This almost never happens? You have to appreciate the rarity of getting near utopia ( west of I-95/ ... I-495!) weather out of any suggestion at all, when in antecedent middle range ever even hints gelid misery in New England, in spring. Given absolute least excuse imagined... any suggestion for so much as shade in mid/ext range modeling at this time far more likely results in pan-dimensional, red- eyed straight-jacket apoplexy. But this... ? four days ago we bathed in Labrador death mist as a 2005 micro-redux ... then, having it go to what is modeled now.? It almost feels verboten - like we're going to be punished for such insolent expectation. I don't think has happened, ever. Models don't break wrongly beautiful over this region of the planetary/atmospheric realm - fascinating. Beyond today, this week's sensible weather may as well be a 1 in 500 year return rate oddity, and achievement that will go completely unheralded and unnoticed. tongue-in-cheek

Perfect ! ...my plan is complete -

Mmm... to be fair and more realistic - Will was dealt a highly anomalous augmentation to a pattern that really there was no way to foresee - that's a bit different than being 'incorrect' Whereas you on the other hand? Much of the time you couldn't hit a wall throwin' shit, yetstill managed to get some to stick on this particular toss - hahaha

What a bizarre evolution that U/A cut-off and total surroundong synoptic evolution takes for the sole intent of making Will wrong and Kevin right. Lol Kidding... It's plausible that after all those postings ... we never even deal with that thing at all. Once the Euro gets to 12z Wednesday it may as well be a TUTT at that point. The Euro just keeps getting less and less. Its not gonna be warm until Thurs afternoon tho. Thursday and Friday look like down right utopic in this run. Like 39 F DPs with 850s' over 10 C, full sun and winds west at zephyr speeds. Actually Tuesday and Wednesday aren't that bad either if an east wind doesn't bother you much - the sun will help tho.

But again .. that’s the virtual reality of the Euro

In fact that makes spatial reasoning sense from the synoptic point of view because about the time that migration takes place the cold loading from the Maritimes is breaking down so we woukd be transitioning into a continental pattern at that point washed in afterward.

Nah if that upper level low decays like that Euro the surface pressure pattern/baroclinicity will normalize ...then what remnants there is becomes a quasi diffused warm frontal slope that transports higher dewpoint warmer air up from the south. It would probably be partly cloudy with higher dewpoints and instability afternoon showers and thunder type of deal… In fact August Bahama blue patterns but it’s not gonna do that before that thing lifts up and just washes out entirely

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yup

From a broader perspective the Euro's is objectively not as bad as all that.. however, this situations leans one's attention too closely into the discrete variations, run-to-run (I wonder...) and that might be effecting opinions. As far as the tropical aspects ... the Euro ( I have personally noticed ) is not a good performer over any Basin on earth, below the 30th parallel, when it comes to purely warm core/barotropic entities. So I compartmentalize that as typical there, and don't let that effect my own judgement on how it may or may not be handling the current shit with the mid latitudes. This cut-off has ginormous sensitivity-related matters. So 300 or 400 km adjustments, W-E, N-S in the 'where' it situates means the difference between 52 F and wet, versus 72 and late May lazing sun very sharply evaporating the edges ... a behavior typical of mid to late spring. It's like CON, NH is 71 F embarrassingly busting MOS, while it is 47 F and raining over Tolland. Anyway, ...by the time the Euro's echo swirl opens up and rejoin the flow.. any gradient it was initially triggering were both too far S, and weakening ( to mention, the higher pressure from the N attenuates), such that it is just a humid transport for New England. That's the gist of what that's showing. Either way, ...I suspect Monday/Tuesday are a cool anomalies, regardless of whether GFS wins in making them particularly wet. Even without the cut-off, there is a huge BD-esque surge of +PP pressing down out of eastern Ontario. That thing would make it cool whether that cut-off misery organized or not. So, try not to focus on the low too much ... It's going to be chilly for a day or two.. A robust surface ridging pressing down from eastern Canada sets up as easterly wind anomaly straight across/from as source of air modulated by the super warm soothing Labrador Current ... yaay! The only way around that is to have that N-stream/confluence up there be wrong too... not really related to the low. So bag Monday and Tuesday as annoyingly cooler than normal ...

Raw NAM numbers off the 00Z have nice weekend days on this run ... I mean that really looks like it’s gonna be 73 and dryer again here in the interior. Logan is going to get butt banged by a pretty potent seabreeze .. mid afternoon. That’ll work its way in but it’ll be several hours of really nice weather before that happens out through the Worcester Hills Sunday the wind is light and variable under mostly sun

It actually originally had that look ... flipping more dramatically so .. but then this rhea low bullied in using oddly weak initial mechanical wave space in ending up with that look, too hint hint.. could be the models are bullying it in - we’ll see. Something is going to be there… I just don’t know where to place it and I also don’t agree that the amplitude has to be correct. I think the models could be overdoing it; we’ve had periodic weaker solutions, and we’re also having trouble with continuity and that includes the euro. I wouldn’t hang anyone’s hat on the euro solution just yet. Either way this features just tainting the hell out of that original signal. If one visualizes it removed .. we have our first heat wave; the whole sensible week is being guided by this thing that just came out of nowhere about four days ago in the guidance

Yeah that’s the one ... came through here about five minutes before them

When that embedded supercell collapsed in Southern Hillsborough County in Southern New Hampshire it came right down through my town and it absolutely leaned the trees over we lost timber it was a very strong outflow 55 mph or more

segways into heat wave set up at 500 mb, too -

Mmm.. give the GGEM credit for collapsing into its own ensemble mean. I expended a goodly dose of wasted energy writing a post this mornign explaining how the operational runs et al were so disparate relative to their ensemble means - this GGEM run fits it mean now.