Typhoon Tip

It's funny with the WFH protocols/distancing stuff ...I almost don't give a shit now that I think about it. I mean, we have Monday off ...then, we WFH in 80 to 90 all week... it's now up to 73 here behind a BD that really looked like a 54 F transport hell yesterday - I'm a bit taken aback I must admit.. I mean I feel pretty confident in the why, but this is MOS bust too - FIT was supposed to hand at 67 and drop to 57 by sun down and it's ...sorry, nearing 70 there with NE wind out of a D-slope source that supports 80 still so...heh... this is a kind of operational/forecasting wtf moment here -

I know your into yard stuff... My friends of the non-Met ilk are all bitching actually because it's been so sunny and dry and they've all got lawn treatments down and don't wanna use the water/hose ...ha! Oy, can't win... It is dusty dry here, I admit. I mean the deep soil/ground is fine still...but 80/30 type days ... that's going tan the lawn hide pretty quick if we don't get some restorative top hydro -

you can see it arrive there on sat really nicely - time sensy https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ( less marine tainted)

It was a good call... you might remember we set this up the other day; a hook around air source. It gets colder in NYC eventually than you with this tucking - maybe. I am noticing ALB is getting milder to warm again in the NAM as early as tomorrow though.

Now squared away behind the boundary, at least for Rt 2/495...this is thus far just refreshing... I must admit, the house was a tad uncomfortably warm overnight - had some issues with tossin' and turnin' and seekin' the cold side of the pillow. Right now it is 69 F which is actually back up 2 degrees since the initial boundary calving an hour and a half ago. And this did not come in with packing of strata/Labrador marine processed air, either. The sky is mackerel and bkn elevated shrapnel with sun beams penetrating. What all this likely means for today is that the day may end up better than the standard climo for BD madness. Ha. Seriously, if sat/sky coverage continue toward more sun, a NE wind west of I-95 is still a continental air source ( less marine tainted) given the day's leading synoptic. Just got to keep that vestigial gyre S .. south coast is probably butt plugged by that thing either way but I admit to a bit of self-servitude in this evaluation and so am not sure. I mentioned that yesterday ...though this front is certainly making inroads across the area exactly like a BD behaves, ...it's really almost too deep in the sounding to be truly just a low level cold mass-restoring cut back event. It's bringing down refreshing east Canadian air. Now...given time, and an east drift ...which still appears destined, that may change and the air mass may in fact ripen with marine taint- I think the NAM is actually saturating Logan's RH1 level at hour 60 from a 08 wind... See, BD's are not a horrific to me, unless they are transporting that low tide smell along with shrouds of dead fisherman's spirit clouds .. inland. I've seen 93 F plumb to 46 F in 20 minutes ... 89 fell once to 38F in 1998, March 31, in 15 hours, and the first 30 of that in 10 minutes up in the Merrimack Valley of NE Mass... though this later one was also a bit more continental in nature. It's a hard prediction to make - which BD air mass is transporting just continental air on a curved anticylonic surface, versus that plus marine or just marine... The latter is what turns BD's into a Med run on the pharmacy - But, I was just looking at ALB on the old FOUS numbers for Sunday and that site on the grid is offering a 2-meter suggestion of around 22C, with SSE drift and low RH skies/ceiling levels... Meanwhile, Logan is 11 or 12C... Not sure what this means for the CT but probably a line from NYC to PWM and points east is gradated tomorrow. Euro's 00z run started improving Monday some... I am overall, less impressed with the heat this week.. Seems the models couldn't leave it alone and are now obtruding a powerful S/W along or N of the Can border by Thursday and that would significantly curtail the longevity heading toward next weekend if that holds.

spectacular display of undercutting mechanics on hi vis loop over the last 2 hours... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined .. where's the BD

Wow at just how precisely cookie cutter the NAM korn holes Mem weekend. exactly ends Tuesday with it.

That distant signal might be the summer settling pattern ... of perhaps an amped version of it. seems to do this more times than not in recent years dating back awhile actually .., butt banged all spring then a heat wave, then it’s indeterminable NW flow that shunts heat/convection and bores to tears —> early cold snap and snow chance just before the gradient kicks in again and f’s up the winter leaving doom winter forecasters explaining why Its no wonder why there’s seldom substantive Met dialogue engaged in this forum any longer because it’s all so predictable ..

This is actually kind of like a normal cold front it's so aggressive ...looking at WPC it's a sharp boundary slicing due S... It really is only a back-door phenomenon from about NYC and S.... But, since the wind immediately hums around to the NE upon passage I guess it's splitting hairs. Either way, it's on roids.... between a strong PP discontinuity balancing from the NE, and a low pressure actually sucking the air mass SW.... it's going to abruptly change things. How much so can't really be nailed down...but it will be colder in direction!

Imagine that? ouch ... 71 at 9:07 AM ...woosh, screen door slams shut and an hour later it's 57 and gray, and an hour after that it's 49 and steady light rain after two days near 80 - ...without "hot sun"

Lol...

One of the aspects that is helping to accelerate this BD ...making it more aggressive than some want to admit, is that there is a legit ...albeit weak, coastal low developing over the upper M/A and then scooting ESE of LI during late Saturday. With a big high pressing SE out of Ontario into the Maritimes under confluence, there'd be at a minimum a N-door cold front as far S as SNE ... but the pressure/density discontinuity of that low really drags the boundary down through NJ too. Even NYC is 7C at T1 Sunday morning at 8am. You know, it is not impossible that the models are underdone with the amount of cold saturation under the inversion, too ...in which case it's cloudier than folks think. I don't know...some are hard-headed and can't learn despite living in BD hell all their lives - they still try and fight it. I'm teasing Kevin, but still ... you might wanna not be suprised if it's a tad cooler than you may think. It will be warmer out your way than Beverly Mass, of course...But you are definitely going back to late April for two days.

Anyway, it'll be in the mid 50s east of I-495 and 60 in the ORH hills on Sunday ... maybe 70 out HFD -way... And even if warms up a few on Monday, you're sill being influenced by that retreating high so yeah ...your summer is getting b-banged until that stops.

Kevin lives entirely in the moment ... he can't see the future outside the cat's paper bag - It's 7 C at T1 in a 20 kts sustained out of the ENE overnight Saturday night and he thinks because it's so warm right now it must be a canard...

I think I get where you are heading with this ... per our geography, latitude.... etc...we need the DPs to keep the night-time low higher, such that there's the higher launch pad?? Wet air takes more heat a to raise a unit-degree. It depends on the kinetics of free air vs free air plus water vapor. The former can heat actually more proficiently if it is kinetically charged - thus stowing thermal momentum, such that when the sun rises it will heat faster than wet air at the same initial temperature. Just sayin'

MEX is between 9 and 12 over climo tho, for D7/8 on a product that's heavily climate-weighted at that range, @ most MOS sites later next week under a west wind and 850s that are typically cooler than verification at this time range as it is. And being already at 15 to 16C, yeah along ... with 588 height rim N of the region I think we can start planning on 90 F, at minimum, for a day quite plausibly the season's first heat wave. Mansfield CT would get get lit up with heat on 240 deg wind and that synoptic circulation. This isn't saying much for DPs ...not sure, but by then green up will be doing it's part and there's enough soil moisture around that we're playing with it given that synoptic look. Now, is that a declaration? No...but those products never show the potential in at this time of year - ever.

GGEM with 20C at 850s over SNE next Thursday - ...figures, waits 'till I explain how the heat looks like 88 to 91 variety then it puts up a 96er

Yeah that warmer interval's been showing up in the operational blend for quite awhile. It'll be 'home grown' heat though ... no SW release sourcing. There is a pretty consistently defined shear axis/weakly closed mid level feature along the Front Range region of the American west and it's blocking any thermal expulsion from taking place. Meanwhile, we still can laze the lower trop with days of near solstice insolation form the MV on east/NE... That'll be our source region for this... Kind of a low grade heat wave/risk. Maybe a 87 to 92er. The EPS seems to respect/orient the flow more discerned around a +NAO with a neutral PNAP ... though it too has the shear axis in the west preventative. But the GFS operational ...as is hugely always the case by the way, ablates and rasps heat and ridging at any excuse imaginable, so it dulls the construct to nuances that look offsetting. I'd probably go with the EPS over this Trump consortium modeled version that is intended to hide global warming...haha. I wonder what happens after that? I could almost see us getting this intro into summer heat bulge. Seems that happens a lot.. Summer heralds in with an early dome, then, the flow sort or relaxes into something less for the remainder of summer(s). In this case, I wonder if we end up with a fast flow NW summer ... heat always being shunted SW making the GFS look right for the wrong reasons

N. VT may escape the BD's influence as is typically the case...The old 'hook around' pressure pattern even showing up on the Euro's low level layout through Saturday's arrival of cosmic dildo, which then the relentless pums through at least Monday evening... Heh. I mean, it may not be that long but, I noted this earlier in the week and it still looks the same. The models et al are not allowing the BD's high pressure region to actually settle SE of the region in a timelier fashion ...such that we get fisted by the NE intrusion, then, the wind settles off into a SE flow indeterminately long with no veering back to SW. It seems the TV whirl, the one and the same that was supposed to originally seriously f-up the east coast weather for days on end but somehow miraculously suppressed SW too far to do so... may have the last laugh. Because it takes 30 hours for it's weak echo in the troposhere to move S of the region, and as it does, it still has enough mechanical last gasp of intent and purpose to clog up the works and causes the high pressure to squeeze E as opposed to S... We get two days of milder/warm air, today and tomorrow, and then we pay for it twice as long - we just can't get out of it. The warden knows and punishes us for trying. lol.. Joking.. Anyway, up there y'all at least won't have the mixing with the Labradorian heat sink death chill, so you can still cash in on high sun angle/offsetting... Plus, when you see the low level pressure pattern sort of 'oozing' around the elevations of the Greens and Whites like that, it usually means the midriff elevations on up may be over top of the poison. For the rest of us? We choke on Labrador cryo farts until next Tuesday. Altho ( here's the hook that will trigger Kevin's spin machine ) ...I did notice that the recent global models tried to back off maybe a little on Saturday... It's probably noise. The 12z NAM has got 25 kts sustained out of the ENE peeling paint off of shore road buildings from beach sand with Logan T1 temp of 7 C by Saturday night... eesh

Lol, nice opportunity to curmudgeonly soapbox. Sociopaths... period that's it. Sociopathy in humanity is far more pervasive - and hidden- as a social crisis than anyone from the intellectual ranks of social-sciences to regular folks are really aware. Oh, the former carry the brand and PHDs and all that ... but they are all clueless. Sociopathy comes in gray form. There are 'compartmental' sociopaths (CEOs and COPs). Broad-spectrum sociopaths ( Serial killers). Conditional sociopaths ... (snap/anger/violent personality disorders that are transient - 'wasn't aware of my rage' types). All these types of head-spaces are unencumbered by limitations of morality and empathy, and therefore, tend to excel to become leaders. Humanity's interesting in that way.. We have a hierarchical social command structure that is instinctual... and, based upon alpha-beta-gamma, but the best suited to alpha roles are the ones that in fact cut ties with empathy and make decisions without moral implications. It's kind of a paradox - ...But, no, what is really happening is that they are viruses, mimicking the responsible leaders, who also have to make tough decisions at times - because both types make decisions that are tough, so they seem like the same character. That's the DNA that gets the virus into the cell... after that? Mmm, they are motivated for different reasons. The sociopaths are self-centered, deceptive while doing it... or in/for the special interest group ideology. While the 'responsible leaders' really are thinking about the welfare of all. Add in post Industrial Revolution, convenience addling --> thoroughly ( thus ) stupefied civility ... this doesn't provide a very effective detection of assholes, who are thus more able to ascend these to heads of state and corporations because society is too distracted/pacificied in their resource orgasm sniff them out during their ascent. Well, dams fail because of it all... It's always happened, but it just happens more now.

Whatever MOS has for Sunday over SNE, shave 10 more off ... as a beginning estimate/correction need - That is a wall of eastern Canada cold that is mixing with Labradorian heat sink ... it will get colder than any guidance says with that synopsis over the weekend. It's interesting the old argument-causing nemesis down in the TV may just get a last laugh too...because even the Euro is using its ghost/barely discernible echo to still have enough mechanics to block up the works and prevent the surface pressure pattern from otherwise evolving the BD air mass S of our latitude. Thus, with the pressure pattern forced to escape east, that drills an east wind into Boston clear 'till the middle o' next week... So it becomes the BD that keeps on butt bangin' long after the initial synopsis that caused it is gone. I swear...there's something synergistically curses about New England. This area is just defaulted with reasons to stay colder than anywhere else... Even NW NS ends up warmer than Logan airport next week, and this is something I've noticed about this geography every year, too... It's a weird kind of planetary-circumstantial cold dumpster. I'm willing to hunch ... if one were to scale the equations of influences on this region, and remove all factors less than the super-synoptic construct, that remaining larger default canvas is actually a NE wind here. We just don't see it because the pattern din is always in off-set that masks it...but that governing effect means that these sort of 'cool bias' permutations tend to happen here more than elsewhere - exaggerated by seasonal lag -attributed to CC too

I'm nervy about that Euro evolution, latter day 6 through the end of day 8 with it's high pressure handling... That happened all last summer and the summer before, and...here we are just starting summer, and the Euro flags this attempting to do so again, right out of the gate. What is happening there is the big high pressure comes down, and when it ebbs ...instead of receding seaward to the SE ... it recedes E. That retards the return flow from setting up.. so less importing continental warm conveyor into the region. We end up with SE oceanic contamination under 850s that would otherwise support mid 80s. It's just an outlook...might change... but this was consummate last summer and the summer before, and seeing it in the model is annoying. When this first showed up in the model(s) as a tendency a couple summers ago I thought it was odd because it's leaving big open space in the lower pressure pattern SW of Bermuda and the adjacent SW Atl Basin in general, but it actually started verifying. It's like there is an unusually large gap there...perhaps an expression of summer-time CC on the general circulation of the subtropics?? could be - ...the easterlies are expanding N. It's interesting how something like that could cause NE to be cool because of the transitive effect of anchoring high pressures from getting south of us. I swear... this geographic region is just indeterminately cursed to stay cooler than everywhere else...

OH, I see what your meaning... Nah, I'd suggest you try and correct toward climo on BD's ...by first admitting they exist at all - that'd be a good start...Then, admitting they effect/affect the weather in CT... Then, in the fourth stage of recovery, acceptance; ...that's when/if there is ever any hint of one on the charts, and in this case, there is a yelling siren... you automatically throw your products out and go more pessimistic as a general rule of thumb and wisdom.

ALL the models show that the f' are you looking at

Depends... 500 mb heights and total thickness would support it, but ... the lower levels may have to contend with a heavily sloped inverted sounding from NE undercut. I'm not sure what your familiarization is with New England climate ... being that you are clearly pretty new to actual science and data ... but we have a phenomenon we refer to as "backdoor cold fronts" - the overall synopsis leading into Saturday highly favors the production of one, and when they arrive they typically dont' terminate momentum until they've effectively "filled in" the space east of the Berkshires ...down along the I-95/surrounding coastal plain, considerably farther down the Eastern Seaboard than one might immediately think.