Typhoon Tip

OH, this GFS run is clearly heading toward amplitude and considerations west ...absolutely. Remember, we are in trend modes - these are not etched in stone solutions. You have to reel that cinema in mind's eye and realize where you've been, where we are now, for projecting the future. Adding in the model's native bias, clearly it's speed/progressive stretching tendency is pulling the s/stream and ripping it out faster than the subsuming n/stream can capture - and that could easily be a correction that is in process of unfolding.

12z ICON has gone from 06z implication of doom... to partly sunny with high in the low 40s and early birds darting blithely to and fro - Red flag?

Yeah yeah re the ICON AND that ... but, jus the same, ...to anyone with a modicum of Met insight, the 06z was a juggernaut correction and though that particular cycle only goes to 120 hour ( at TT), that was heading in one direction. ....DOOM

Seein' as I was asked ... I just like dramatic natural events. Period. In fact, I think there is value in seeing the total picture of a driving white-out go to 80 F a week later... that, in its step-back specter ...is incredible as a total event. In fact, cutting that up.. .it would be anomalous at all scales: the storm, the heat, and the storm --> heat. Amazing! Lost on folks ... wow. I think folks tend to want to categorize and preserve relative to those, some sort of emotional attachment to regimes...and thus loathe having to adjust ? Which if true - hint, I think more so than not.. .eh hm.. - this is a weird occupation for exposing that nerve! Because there is 100% chance of never seeing 0 change.

Not to stick my face in the middle of your fledgling squabble ... heh, but, if I may make a suggestion: The QPF layout of the Euro is less paramount compared to it's other kinematics and total evolution of synoptic metrics there... It's way more likely being way too cute and compact east with that, almost treating like a tropical eye-wall - for lack of better description, and usually those CCB juggernauts are physically instructed to a vaster envelope... Just a suggestion though... I mean, these models obviously don't project physically "IM"possible solutions - usually ... it's just up to use to correct for better or worse based on likeliness, which is of course guided by knowledge vs wisdom. So, there's naturally going to be probability/risk in assessment ..haha. But simply put, I just think the Euro QPF layout is a little dubious, big IF it's right otherwise. We'll see.

Very remote chance of repeating +12 monthly departures - that was on par with a freak event - Ha, I wanna do that in July ahhaha

Inclined to agree ... (corrected below) Not that you or anyone else hasn't considered the following comment: It's an easy fix at this time range... no worries on that specific point-aspect. Let's get the 500 mb evolution squared away and we can work with those idiosyncrasies. (corrected below) Furthering thoughts/observation in general: It's D5 entry and early D5 exit, and a massive slow mover. When we start expanding spatially, and then include duration... we end up wrought with all kind of concerns - for obvious reasons. The usual 'over in 13 hours with the heaviest snow falling in 4 hours' type event is conceptually insufficient. You get into storm-specific eccentricities that cannot really be assessed in the deterministic effort. In other words ... snow totals? Good luck. A Euro solution probably froths milk shake air to about CEF, MA arcing to CON NH, with by virtue of intense CCB wind field being so systemically large, and any snow at all is thrashed into a bona fide blizzard/vis profile along the coast. But, we all caution, this solution is the fourth consecutive that's corrected NW and deeper ... and with the EPS showing a reasonably discerned trend toward more organization in the 00z cycle .. ( to mention, the D5-7 duh) no one is convinced this multi-cycle hint is finished constructing its self in the guidance. Also .. this is a subsume phasing and those typically end up nasty for someone. That subsume has been remarkably consistent as a point-aspect, too. Marine and surf being agitated by multi- tide cycles would be significant problem in the Euro solution ...even being 100 mi east of ideal in this particular cycle's synoptic evolution I suspect that would be a concern. Are there any Equinoctial issues? *BUT* if we get a Euro-esque system to move that slow and that deep, with that kind of deep layer total tropospheric response, it will deform/lift the sea-surface into a tizzy either way - normal tides might crush vulnerably shore points with toppling seismographic abyssal walls, regardless. Particularly if that same sort of solution corrects a mere 100 clicks to the west, look out. That would be bad ... The GGEM probably has moderate typical coastal concern. But, if the Euro solution backs so much as a 100 miles west, or slows down sooner, with that that bombogenesis scale and degree? (I'm seeing some 20+ DM total height evacuation across 12 hours .. and you enter that obscene virtual scale where descriptions fade to black...) You simply cannot do that without hell to pay - I'm not being histrionic here; that's just theoretical. It's probably the operation going too bananas, but... just in case it's heading toward reality .. yeah. The capture and stall so typical with these summit events in this solution is in the GOM ... a little N of climo for Hull Mass, but the previous 12 hour crawl by at 960's mb from S to N like that ...I don't even know if there's a good analog for comparison there. I'd say I'm improving my personal odds on this thing to 'cautiously optimistic' for a moderate impact event, that if graduates to actual optimistic, also carries with it a 'corrective vector' pointed toward major. Something like that... We are at the tail end of mid range, ...extending an event from entry point there, to the extended at early D7... It's a unique deterministic scenario... it's cross time scalar because of it plausible majesty in the total circulation of the hemisphere - and I also mind us of the philosophy that large looming scenarios tend to do this sort of thing, and show up with dictation in the runs...like big boulders rolling down the steam and the current of pedestrian events stem their ways around the proxy of the boulder as a metaphor. EDIT: .. having seen the surface evolution of the 00z Euro operation version on Pivotal with better resolution .. we made not need much west track adjustment after all - but the QPF seems oddly underdone given the mid level morphologies across that key 12 hours of that solution - I think that would be magenta in concentric f-gen bands amid a total S/+S CCB head.

Nick may have brought up the best point ...the whole manifold of the pattern is trying to move that whole +PNAP structure bodily into the Atlantic -

Heh... if that storm happens next week and saves a little face on the winter, the impetus there is "little" ... Mr Bouchard still fairly wins the necessity for this winter to go f- it's self.

Yeah ...but just my experience with the UKMET in that range ...it's like it piles up the flow near the end, and maybe correction east like said isn't a bad option - agreed. This is like a 59 yard field goal attempt to stop a 40-0 shut out the way this winter's been going -

If that run went out to D7 I bet it tries to lift that 995'er up the Hudson tho -

GFS is outpacing the southern stream with a helluva lot of total progressive manifold velocity - I mean it's moving/reshuffling the L/W straight on through over the top of the southern stream wave, and just leaves it behind. It's a cold front... The Euro/prior GGEM wanted to slow the N/stream down... It's hard to know if they are just playing into their own biases. Same holds true for the GFS. These models tend to meridian bias vs progressive tendencies, respectively, and it seems they are running with their own tendencies to do so. The GGEM's 12z run certainly bucks it's bias... Then there's the seasonal tenor of missing opportunities and least excuse imaginable ...and often, creatively seemingly to rub it in, too ( haha ). But, there are some vestiges about the flow overall that suggest its a bit more relaxed than a month back...and this is sort of transitioning into that regime this week. It may be growing pains/transition in the runs... The AO is trying to neutralize, albeit transiently this week ...and if that is so over our hemisphere, that actually helps because it eases off the isohypses counts between JB and the Gulf, and may allow a Euro like fantasy more truth. If the Euro comes in ...ah hell - it'll be interesting to see that run.

Ah ...no - these are just observations I'm making. Personally? Beneath 'cautiously optimistic' - as in not as much as that. The seasonal music doesn't groove like this is going to happen, and there's some objective merit to recognizing that trend without it being just histrionic/angry subjective hand waving - There are reasons this season sucked... as I've opined ad nauseam since ... oh, 2005 actually ...how the hemispheric winters are speeding up velocities because HC expansion/ing into the boreal heights and the flow has to physically speed up...and it's an interference pattern - for good or worse is a case by case scenario. This year's been heavily biased in negative interference...

NO shit ..wow, that look right there is a K.U. actually ... prerequisite set up - Also, folks... I did a total wave space comparison and ending on D5/6 that GGEM solution off 00z is ( per my own estimation ) aoa the 80th percentile a March 31 1997 analog. The Euro's phasing is more believable through D6 but it somehow manages to bi-pass the two streams when the day prior, they were already apparently/seemingly integrating along the MA.. Not sure that's physically plausible but it's like "dis - integration" ( literally) after the fact going from D6 to 7 ...and ends up with a middling low up near NF and the mid level N/stream mechanics with blue balls off the lower MA like ...what happened - where did she go. It was already there and the depiction looks united on the coarser renditions, but somehow the S/stream mechanics slips the N/stream despite the grid spacing - interesting...

Yes...bingo! Ephemeral indeed ... I'm not sure what the EPS tele 's look like, but the American don't really support anything other than a big warm up erupting in the first 10 days of March. ( not that anyone asked, but we flip the clocks in 9 days ... I'd be tickled pink if I piled out of work that Monday, with a 75 on the car dash, windows down, and the sun still 3 hours up on the horizon ) Anyway, the term 'hale Mary' leaps to mind, like a last gasp attempt to save a little exit face - ... I dunno, but March is a long month... and we really have to get to Easter to really close the books around here. Some years, ...heh, like this one, the book is slammed shut out of rage way before then but, objectively... we could put up a week at 70 F and still white out on the 22nd of March... before melting it all off the next week. This March is about bi-polar swings of tormented loss and real hope. haha

Mm...ridge in the west, unlike pretty much ever since early December, is actually depicted in a good longitude ( axis ) centered on D6 ...check. What I don't like is the impulse in the south that offers the seed/enticer for the stream interaction/phase ... it appears too concerved given the heights along the Gulf/continental interface latitudes leading (D's 4/5)... It seems that would be absorbed a bit more.

It was 10 F here a couple weeks ago one morning... I dunno - seems like an impressive cold shot to me. In fact, there's no lack of cold air ...it's just not being delivered and/or sustained around or geography. Just look at the polarity in the Euro at D10... While not a testament as to it's probability of occurrence by any stretch, there is still a vast pooling of sub -20 C 850 mb layout over the Canadian archipelago of the N. Nah issues has been the super-structure of the hemispheric flow won't align into a delivery/sustaining scenario - and hasn't really not once all year since mid December, for whatever reason. Not all all times..I mean, he have been side-swiped by impressive cold, setting up a couple a good radiational cooling morning ... and those single digit anomalies too place. But, the lack of sustaining is certainly true.

don't be so literal it's a goodly bit tongue-in-cheek. "It wouldn't shock me" is a common trope for half hearted seriousness

You're problem is that you think I'm trying to predict something there... that's an OP ed approach and conveyance - look up what that means. Opinion piecing isn't what you are after there -

Oh, 1888 is coming ... that's the thing, people read missives like that, latch on to one thing, and then almost compulsively over-react - but ... this is what happens when you give provincial rabble that virtual podium and mike of the Internet - Also, you get sociological histrionic crisis' that flirts with anarchistic meltdown. Space and remoteness, and dimmer technology used to protect actually, because by the time time "word" spread, it was already marinaded to truth by the crucible of time it took to actually get that word around. Now, it's so easily disposed, there's 0 zippo no vetting. Just misinterpreted source and reaction. But I digress... I'm kidding half way here... don't over react ahaha

No argument from me... In fact, I was digging around out in the main forum with those seasonal outlooks and found a post I made back in October hinting pretty strongly that I feared no reason to go against the climate migration model and the HC expansion/fast flow contamination issues ruining this winter, just like last year. Gee, what the f happened? Sorry, it's pretty clear that we had trouble with stream mechanical phasing, and cyclgonic entropy was large because of the torn open atmosphere. Yeah, I've been warning for a long time now ( meaning five seven or eight years ) that most these seasonal outlooks, few appear to have taken the latest research/observations/CC factors into account and still prog with too many vestigial influences of 1965 causation manifolds between water, land, and the more ephermal atmospheric indicators. They are not valid in 2020 ... hint - those method/validity started eroding in usefulness ... roughly around the onset and post the super-nino of 1997, and have gotten really quite obviously less than useful in the last five years. I was just talking to Harvey Leonard earlier today about this, he made this statement to me, which was a veritable echo of my own sentiments I made in a passing comment/missive in one of these scrolled threads in here, a couple of months ago: "I have never really seen one quite like this, for combo of warmth, and not even any “close calls,” or “near misses” since mid December." In concept this is exactly what I said to y'all, 'it is getting increasingly more difficult to sustain a snow potential atmosphere at our latitudes of North America, without some sort of either concurrent or antecedent, direct -EPO loading to support' I dunno - when combining the total worldly perspective on matters, we may already be in a Philly climate now... Wouldn't shock me. I mean, most empirical evidence to date in support of the CC stuff, shows that the change has exceeded modeling expectations ...in some case by decade(s) depending on the focused metric. Why not blow our f'n winters away too - But, before anyone panics, even in a Philly climate ( if more than merely tongue-in-cheek) it snowed a foot last week south of there in the slope country of the Carolinas. There are no absolute boundaries in climate, it's all about rarity.

It was 2015 ... We had 120" ( average ...some more, some less) spread out over a month, which is 12 feet... So in an affect ( or is it "effect" in that context - ) 2015 was worse by a factor of two. Although...hm, they say 4,5 and 6 feet on the level, and that about matches what happened in my town... At max static depth I had 50" ... It was hard to stack higher than that, despite being so cold during that fabled February, because the snow was so low ratio and so pancaked by it's own weight. I think a lot of the specter value is era/adaptive relative. I mean, 1717 was a pre-industrial pump, lever, and oxen powered culture, replete with 'state of the art' log cabins and no plumbing in most cases. No automatic home heating. Nor refrigerators... and so on. We can stock a fridges and load up on Netflix and wait it out these days, and with snow plows and higher tech solvent chemistries on roads ... what's 20" ? whatever... I never was delayed by that 16" deal we had in Dec... Back in the 1980s when I was a kid, that would have been an geological epoch! Now, I think I made the gym both days of that. It's just not the same folks... and this is a dying hobby believe it or not, if for want this is a hobby about dystopian excitement. Not to mention, we have ( apparently ) earned our latitude a Philidelphia climate now. ...but we'll see on the latter.

Just like with troughs...the onus is on the Euro to be right about a ridge that amped in that time range - it's meridian bias beyond day 6 is prevalent regardless of what how those verification scores seem to consummately evade what is patently clear it does over the U.S. and that's blow up ridges and black hole troughs - pretty much both ways.

Two days ago I snarked words to the affect that given the American teleconnector spread ( both agencies, too..), another one of these absurdly early runs at 80 F ( and that's happened three times in the last five years between Feb and Apr btw ) wouldn't shock me; and then I just saw the 12z Euro with a +12 C plume over Pa/upstate Ny heading this way... Three or perhaps four years ago, we made 85 F with 14 C in March .. which can exceed that adiabat purely be dry air expansion. The CDC version is even more demonstratively warmer all fields, every sector right out to the end of Week 2 - good luck winter enthusiasts...but, having just humored and bewildered over the content the last several pages, it seems those types are collapsing under pressure. Good! save your psyches

Yeah again... flow relaxation finally, but to no gain because the underpinning pattern remains... It's just a less fervent version of the same shit. I was hoping with the AO toppling from +orbit to a mile above 0 SD ... ( jesus ), together with relaxing/climo, might herald some sort of quasi-blocking/"bowling" option. WRONG Anyway, if anything I gotta wonder if the operational runs are too cold obsessed in the East with this layout- granted I don't know what the EPS looks like but ...this fits the tenor/season trend too well to ignore so I'd almost be willing to bet on relentless persistence/verification, and go ahead and assume if the EPS flags any other semblance than a butt poking it's full of shit... But well see....