Typhoon Tip

Know what's personally musing about that ? About a week ago, I mentioned in passing words to the affect of, " ...at this point, I hope that big ridge in the Euro verifies, because I'd love to pile out of work into a 74 F afternoon on that Monday, with the extra hour of daylight" Oddly prophetic, perhaps ... and while 74 is a stretch, I would definitely remind folks that under a well mixed, tall boundary layer, amid a WSW dry-warm continental conveyor, with 700 mb RH < 50%, and 850 mb rudimentary adiabatic starting temp of +10 or +11 ...that's going to bust MOS cool... The GFS version of that MOS is only 60 at FIT, which might actually be atoned for it's progressive look with that flat wave coming out of the southern GL region... The Euro is west of Chi town withat wave-space during Monday afternoon, with the eastern end of the warm boundary not sagging with typical climo - so...has an air of anomaly in that respects and we'll see. But, the GFS is about 6 to 9 hour faster with that S/W and probably pollutes the works. I actually think this is a good test for the GFS ... ( Euro for that matter.., although the onus is on the GFS, because the Euro being inside of D4 ...it's probably closer to reality ). I've thought all along this season that the velocity/speed saturation, tending to stretch the flow ... serviced the GFS and made it's extended ranges look better than the foreign model types - which diametrically maintain the opposing tendency in the other direct ( meridian ). I just wonder if the GFS is going to start ablating warm ups all summer ( snark). Like it has difficulty seeing the longevity of heat, because it'll keep right on stretching the flow when there is less reason to actually do so ...thus, revealing that it was scoring better this last winter by faux skill (so to speak).

the thought had occurred but then ... is it really gonna matter this time ? Might be a better therapy for all who regular this distraction if they didn't get to see the models at all for the next 6 months, too - ha

That extended Euro is ugly on steroids

Bingo! Yeah... and a +AO winter ( predominating ) has meant a lot of gradient saturation between the lower Ferral latitudes and those deep cold heights associated to the former - The lower latitude heights are also expanding across the 30 year analysis prior to this winter; it is being papered - Hadley Cell expansion. It's only on the order of 2.5 deg since the 1950s... which in scalar consideration is a small number. But it's not that simple... throughout a a gravitationally compressed fluid medium - it means it's sensitive to mass changes in that range, and one such way is that it has to expand laterally in latitude, and that increases velocity. That is happening - and I realize I'm preaching to the quire here ...just saying -- while there is a ranging +AO? Good luck... there's a reason for all these land-based velocity records being set by west to east flying commercial airlines and it's likely the combination of the two.. These land-speed records started happening more frequently some ten to fifteen years ago, but the frequency seemed to be up this season.

Yeah... it seems a matter of time before get some kind of public restriction mania going ... one wonders. I mean, it won't be like "martial law" per se, but several states are urging people to telecommute if they can, else ..self quarantine if there is any suspicion at all they may have been in contact - but think about that? Who and how the f would anyone know that! Idiots...so, the next logical steps is mass hysteria of course - too predictable. Meanwhile, we wonder if it's over-publicized ... "catastrophized" to try and generate corporate-media profits. The histrionic fervor that's "trying to elevate" doesn't seem to really necessitate the urgency, not when comparing to the veracious science and data that's being buried beneath the din of fear mongering. Some of the descriptions of those with this illness who are among what is considered 'healthy population,' report 8 hours of fever, followed by a day or so of mild fatigue and they're out - fine. No worse for the wear. Head colds are far f worse. And yeah, you get the flu with advanced underlying morbidity factors, you're at risk either way. This has a 2 percent mortality rate ... 2... and that does not include 'healthy populations' almost all who have died were in the risk minority. Ebola was 90%... 90 .. You could have been Jesse Owens and you'd -a been in deep shit. Not this f thing. no way...not even in the same ballpark. Yet, think back to the media coverage spanning both ... you'd think that was Corona and this was Ebola the way it is being aggrandized -

As a stand-alone source... the American -based teleconnectors are exceptionally warm for mid/late month. I'm now wondering if a 2012 competition is in the works - goodness.. Two schools, ...well, three really: one ... we are already past the first week, so to get a competition, I'm not sure where we stand and if that's even doable over the next three weeks two ... by shear definition of rareness, ...2012 should not be redux/reproducible for many years. 8 may not be long enough... three ... CC ...yup. Bingo.. it's plausible that we can overcome that 2nd point; as in, maybe it's not as rare as we may think. Like it has simply not taken place yet, and we are in a new regime that allows for that kind of absurdity more frequently than we may be aware, simply from lack of verified exposure. The reality is probably somewhere between all three of those philosphies. I realize someone's posted about the EPO that looks neggie but I don't think it's "really" negative. What I'm seeing is such a demonstratively and massively negative PNA that physical R-wave balancing forces the EPO faux negative. It won't be the same beast as that which loads the Canadian shield ... if that's the case. I also advertized yesterday that I thought we still had chances for cut-off blue bomb in an overall above normal pattern. I'm not even sure I still want to back that assertion this day looking at this stuff.

As we get ready to embark upon a new summer season, for those of us who care, there is anticipation for how the temperature departures will tend to layout across North America - and obviously... how that will affect our region. I have taken note over the last ten years, an interesting tendency to offset extreme (high) temperature results in New England due specifically to cloud coverage. There are other geo-physical circumstances that offset - I'm speaking specifically to tendencies for mid and high level "gunk" cloud coverage, which tends to dim solar flux during warm continental transports and/or in-general deeper tropospheric height events. I thought perhaps I was just imagining contaminating warm-sector cloud propensity... Such an easy look-up using the "dubious" resource known as the Internet (sadly it has become... due to human propensity for greed and corruption at least excuse, a dying virtue ...I digress), I have neglected to really try, but an excerpt from this source, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190325120401.htm "..Even though northern Scandinavia should be strongly affected by global warming, the area has experienced little summer warming over recent decades -- in stark contrast to the hemispheric trend of warming temperatures, which is strongly linked to rising greenhouse gas emissions. According to the study, temperature changes have been accompanied by an increase in cloudiness over northern Scandinavia, which in turn has reduced the impact of warming..." rather nicely suggests I may be noticing something real. I have opined on few occasions, how our region of the globe, per NASA's ongoing 'state of the climate' monthly publications, dating back some 20 years actually ..., have shown that while we have experienced substantive upward temperature trends, they have been muted comparative to other land regions; such as Australia, Eurasian and Asia and Africa, where they may not have the same cloud tendencies. We do... maybe - because that bold excerpt above likens to an 'extreme' variation of what I may be observing locally - if due to a similar dimming/muting. I almost wonder if this summer ends up a 89'er; which would be +2 or +3 on the season, even suggesting episodic big heat, but in reality fails to produce, because of gunk sky contaminated warm ups. 20+C 850 mb warm air intrusions under cirrostrata contamination ... I have seen this frequently. I also wonder if the warming climate's theoretical relationship to increased WV content could be causally related to why some regions of the planet happen to register increasing cloud coverage as this warming has occurred over recent decades - if so, are we actually one such region. I just have seen too many 21 C, 850 mb afternoons hold up at 91 F ...with periodic swaths of cirro-stratum and alto stratus clipping the solar flux. So, this warm up Monday into Wednesday this week ... Firstly, I'm impressed that the models can't bring a BD down here approaching the "stellar warm time of year" known as the Ides of March. Yet, the Euro holds that boundary up around midriff Maine. That said, I was looking at the GGEM and Euro moisture layering and that looks like a candidate mottled warm sector of robbed solar input. 700 mb has >50% RH ... which wouldn't be necessarily the same cause as the deep summer reasoning, no...but, it does remind me of similar...and that having +7C at 850 mb, in a reasonably well mixed WSW flow ..."should" poke another 70 F chance one of those afternoons, but I almost wonder if it stays 64 to 66 because of cloud albedo

Man... the ICON and GGEM are amazingly engineered tools for modeling wrongly - Or - coup brewing ? They just won't give up...The GGEM dynamically flips SE zones to about 4-6" of reasonably high impact advisory look on this run...

And that 1997 is in my top three coveted fav' events of all time. Depending on my mood, that order mixes up between: Feb 1978 (Michigan - different storm); Apr 1997; Dec 1992 ... I remember Harvey Leonard on his 6 pm mid previous week, "...Should this deep feature manage to pass under Long Island..." stressing the risk in having that do so.. He was talking about the ( then ) MRF synoptic evolution of a deepening 500 mb closed surface. So, Saturday morning I get my usual large french vanilla with cream and sugar and Advil and head on up to the Weather Lab to see where we stood; seeing as that was being side-ways mentioned in AFDs and the Euro was suggestive too. I saw, I wanna say, Drag ( I think, Sorry Walt) mentioned the MRF ensemble members were bulging west toward the New England Coast, indicating plausible correction vectoring toward more concern...etc.. So it was smoldering in the met community. Imagine my heart ...as I knock back the Advil into a hang-over in front of a yummy first dram off my coffee, and all of it almost comes out my nose when Harvey's vision of management was outright modeled in full fury leaped of the primitive ( by today's standard) web interface. It was 59 F at the time. It ended up maxing 63 F, that day, two days before cat-paws warned in... After getting my weather johnson all lubed up and ready to go, I left and walked across the campus to Fox Tower for brunch. The sky was hazy blue, and the fair weather CU was even elevated ... as though even the anomalously warm boundary layer was as clueless as the students lavishing in it. I can recall the t-shirt and cargo shorts vibe. It was a common garb of choice along my walk, as frisbies sailed over 20 year-old flawless designs taking advantage of the sun upon blankets festooning the commons out side of the dorm halls. Sculpted out of God's clay, indescribable forms - trying to be civil about it was almost like when I worked radar at Weather Service Corp, and witness the zygote blip of the 1999 May Oklahoma City F5 producing cell; just knowing that someone, somewhere, over that sucker's ensuing 50 miles were utterly oblivious to their destiny. That's always a weird head space .. you just keep it to your self. And that tepidly warm utopia was just the same.

Oh yeah... great example. zactly It may be more of an intuitive feel but think like we're prone to this, this spring. More discretely though... there's a lot a wave mechanics that seems "strand-able" and with that cold lurking... warm all the time, alla 2012 doesn't seem like it's walking through the door. You know, we may get lucky with warmth? ... mm, and if we do ..few will really understand that's all that happened lol

Yeah ...'was only bustin' ...

Right - when writing for court-yard rabble, there's going to be unreachable dissension - agreed.

that'a curious statement, bold abv... as "climate suggesting patter relaxation" may qualify - that's really the point I'm making this morning. Again, modeled this and teleconnector that tend toward increasing "entropy" at this time of year - in other words, disorder. And that's code for being less dependable and well duh, transition seasons tend to see enhanced stochastic model performance - that's why. I disagree that we need 'something much more' than relaxation in the flow - nah bro... These things are sensitive beneath the specter of the larger moving parts, and it doesn't take much 850 mb insert of cold into an on-going dynamic system and shocking huge sensible weather difference result from relatively small inputs all the time. A progressive bowling ball with a well time plume... 62 32 54 62 colorado special, no problem.

Keep an open mind, tho -

I realize my post is being ignored out of anguish and disenchanted flopping ... haha, but I do honestly think that 11th-13th has a blue bonnet look to it. We'll see.. And I don't have any contention going warmish overall for March ...there's like three pillars of evidence to support that thinking: -- seasonal persistence -- "CC" or a gestaltic relationship to that ... so not outright "because of that" but ...synergistically favored -- modeling and teleconnectors ... But that last point is tricky. March ...into the first half of April for that matter, have a fickle variability because that last factor tends to entropy ... Neither performs terribly well in transition season, simply put. And part of the performance is the shortening wave-lengths, and the good point you make regarding the cold in Canada - I mentioned that myself - may help this year. 2012 did not have that mass loading up there. Not that I recall. It was a freak hemisphere that year. It's just simply not modeled that way. People want to make the 2012 comparison for two reasons in my estimation: one, early snow followed by months of unrelenting poorer winter performance might bear some resemblance as a step back character ( granted..), but the other reason is hand throwing tantrum frustration. Unfortunately, ..heh heh, neither would hold up very well to a Chi-test frankly... can't be used. Coincidences and sore-butting don't offer much deterministic value to weather prediction. Tongue-in-cheek aside... Monday probably nicks 70 over parking lots in metro west and Springfield/HFD ... with 67 at Logan with it's new cold bias we've cleverly inherited ( thank god they sent a technician to fix that!) ... but that's typical before a blue bomb ... In a "holistic" sense, having the GEFs digging at 180 hours is a April 97 mockery but I think is okay actually as at a glance.

So ...we're likely to nick the SE zones ...? If perhaps only the Cape and Islands with wind whipped cat paws and/or wet flakes, regardless, that is " a little " NW correction coming into shorter terms - interesting. The next on the docket of potentials is the 11th -13th. Unlike the general population.. I don't really maintain biases based upon the overall seasonal tenor of abuse - ha. I mean I'll go ahead a commiserate with my usual flair for nested insults and passive trolling, but that's if and only if it offends people ... ( muah haha). So for the majority of sub-forum, we miss this first opportunity of the onsetting seasonal relaxation climo... too bad. I still see a ten day to perhaps two week window remaining that offers best hope for winter enthusiasts, even if it's blurred by the amorphous seam of seasonal transition. This is blue bomb bowling time.. We can have 61 F light wind warm sun afternoons and a foot of snow that night, and this patter coming up "airs" ( puns are free) on the side of a good year for that. It's outright modeled below as an example... But, the flow is still relaxing and the wave lengths are pretty coherently shortening. There are two table-setting factors: one, there is an increased/energetic wave frequency in the general circulation ambience; two, there is a lot of mid tropospheric cold in all guidance draped over-arcing through Canada, so these are cake batter items. So .. with the introduction of a different mechanical layout across the hemisphere, these are new paradigms ..and pure logic means the tenor of the previous season is meaningless. We may not get an event - okay..but that's more likely a coincidental characterization of results and false equivalency in terms of causality if that occurs. There are plenty of members here that signal an important event, and the EPS mean from 00z does carry some inflection for the time in question:

On March 10 ..? That's a ripper BD front on the Euro's day 6...

Could be... MOS guidance may or may not have that kind of discrete science built into their algorithms. Obviously, we know they are heavily climo weighted as they get out in time ... 4, 6 and 7 days out, so it would probably be hard to know if the super-adiabatic overturning/tall BL is being modulated/hidden out by the database averages. Also, considering the averages ...those may or may not contain the "hockey stick" aspects of recent climate change. Ever since the 1990s really, the MOS would routinely under-assess the high temperatures on sunny well mixed days while in the absence of CAA, anyway, and one should wonder if the last 10 years make that worse. Those rotted polar air mass and/or westerly continental conveyors with low RH will drive a 61, D7 MOS to 72 every time because of climo weight, but even in the near term ...like the next day, there's still almost a guaranteed 1 to 3 tick bust.

Yup...I've been monitoring that... It's an epic journey through bundom to do so...but I'm often interested in tracking those first warm fair days in spring; I mean, they happen so rarely they may as well be considered freak events and thus have their place in the annuls Of course... having it be 70+ last January...and 80+ in Febs and March's several times over the last 6 years, the novelty of that is wearing off too -

The GEF's -based teleconnectors do not support any operational model that suggests cold and snow, at any point, over the next two weeks. The operational run is some-odd, 0 for 20 average in modeling winter storms between D5 and 10 over the last eight weeks, at the same time it's ensemble mean has signaled a favorable pattern 0 % of that time. Pretty strong argument for sidling with the ens mean and not even using the operational. But it begs the question ...why? It really is that starkly coherent: ensemble mean implies 0 chance... operational has modeled 120 inches with 0 success. I find that fascinating in a nerdly sort of sense of it, for operational usage of the GFS. I am not sure what the other model's ensemble derivatives have been like ...GGEM, UKMET or Euro, when comparing to their own teleconnectors, but... regardless, they are at minimum guilty of 0 realization... How do we know...? Because 0 has happened, that's how. So, unless they have carried along the last eight weeks with 0 chances - which they have not - they aren't doing much better. Here's the aspect that's interesting... The individual ensemble members of the GFS, which I do upon occasion glance over them ... have signaled substantial cyclones and events over eastern N/A ... yet en masse, they must be canceling one another out to end up with neutral or nominal threat ... because the pegged neggie PNA and pegged positive NAO, with whopper positive AO the whole way mind us...plus, WPO-EPO arc completely torpid of any signal at all...the whole way, doesn't actually imply any given one of the members should ever be signaling anything. It's really like GEFs mean is "accidentally" painting a tele's spread that has verified remarkably well, while being individual piece of shit. weird. - Well, anyway... my guess is that any 202 hour GFS cut off upper MA/SNE juggernaut is going to be hard to surmise without that erstwhile crushing bias in mind. Be that as it may, if the flow remains relaxed ... it is unfortunately a stand alone/sort of non-trend determinant entity. This one over the next 60 hours ( btw..) still deals with velocity contamination, despite rolling eyes and the fact that it's just a little less velocty - still too much... I'm talking about 'as is' in modeling trends. We'll see if it does a Boxing Day deal ...

People are the same everywhere on the planet - regardless of race, creed, ethnicity of shade We're just dogs. - conceit too oft gets in the way of that truism, but the beauty of truisms is that they are true ...whether people want to believe them or not.

Exactly ... the fall back position: we’re getting a storm anyway - delusion over disparity

That models suck when they don't show a storm

It's hemming and hawing around the tenor on this site -haha

I was reading this could be a bad 'bug year' in general... The lack of antecedent significant cryo- events isn't good.