Typhoon Tip

word! understood.. yeah i was curious cuz my running hypothesis is that in a gradient rich HC expansion scenario that isn't temporary and is more likely representative of a global projection from you-know-what ...it gets hard to stage the general machinery in space and time for the KU process... shredded IB events that cash in on higher pwats transporting into well timed confluence +PP anomalies at the surface , do -

Were they Kocin check-list-able events, though - or did we just get walloped. I remember 2007 I think it was...we had a 40" Dec out of frontenders ending as drizzle - pretty epic 0 Kocin month. Just askin' not d'k headin' I actually remember one of those the high was so immovable the low just went up to Ontario, stopped...and squeezed as a blown open shredded mess underneath so we ended it as zr/ip actually... at like 21 F

yeah sorry ..been busy - but it is interesting... Welcome to global warming... It's not so far fetched to imagine that it can be so unilaterally warmer than normal everywhere but still be less than extreme standard deviation heat - 89/66 is like the hottest summer ever - hypothetically

Interesting... If this so-called "cool-down" ends up more neutral, and the flow corrects back to the seasonal trend like the D9/10 operational 00Z Euro ... purporting in more elevated lows and Kelvin-Hemholtz fold-over heat blocks keeping the highs +5 without actually breaking any records, we may actually end up with a top 5 hot summer having comparatively fewer to no proper climo site records. I think that's an interesting story if that does that -

Easy recipe ... 1 ) born with modicum of intellectual potential 2) ...add unrelenting, yet ( and here's the juicy part ...) unprovable relentless ass-atrocities by the kosmic dyldo ...bake in the imagery oven of one's love-lorned va-goo-goo ... Let cool, frost with the sweet irony of metaphysically forced existential dilemma... Serves up mental-meal in really good writing - ...or at least a bloviator who thinks he can -

I wonder if we can set the three-month summer record and fail 100 - Course ... for having just barbed that sarcasm, some fastidious upstart petty-head's running out to scrape a couple-a 99.6's out of the databases - "100.1" but yeah I mean, convincingly... like 103 for two days, book ended by 99s at Logan an a west dragon fart compression off the cow-patty-wilted meadows of Rutland VT's slobbering felled bovine dairy industry

Mm.. nah, I still say you have to send them through an objective scale of relativity scope, a process that takes into consideration the fuller spectrum of capacity of that era and so forth - it sounds like your still bargaining a little there to maintain the giggly specter of having seen that. Unfortunately, ...we can't do that anyway - because any depression over the eastern limb of the happenin' wild and crazy Sargaso doldrums of The Roarin' 1920s are indeterminately lost to the vagaries of the wind. What is it that we actually saw? ... know what would be cool... time travel - go back in time with the full array of sat tech and blaze away the surface of the earth, sped up several orders of magnitude so that the Mesosoic Era until 10 minutes ago is completely available for analysis. I've often thought it would be deviantly if not psychotically amusing to go back in time to the great war of the Visigoths as they stormed gallantly over the hills ...straight headlong into the casualty spray of a couple of Gatling guns - wonder how the timeline of global ethos and pathos gets redrawn ... hm. It's kind of is an indictment of Satan's providence over man - because if he is everything the Catholic heredity of philosophy believes, and he doesn't like good, go back and make things bad. Or, maybe we are in hell - and he's just won the battle and therein there is no need. I kind of like that in way ... Just a wee-bit of digression It's just my opinion but it's too plausible that some 10 to 30% of these present eras are more advantaged and it should be noted that these records "might" ( good science offers healthy skepticism is all...) and not reflect more activity necessarily, comparing years past where/when no one was in the woods when the trees fell.

There could be a seasonal precedence sort of trend-type to consider - it'll get us every time, when you've done a thing several times and start doubting any recurrence. We had something in June... cross over PR and got ravaged and plumed its over-designated vestige was pulled on up the coast as a 78 F DP wash ... Fay? God... I write from a head-space voided of quickly accessible memory. Not sure how that's possible but - heh. But then we just did ISIS ... a.k.a., "Isiasi" Seems these were for merely either just getting lucky, or ... Gaia is sending notifications that our license to build trillion dollars of assets in infrastructure and priceless decades of family, friends, and forsaken love interest story lines is about to be revoked for failure to renew on humility - like the DMV sends those? Re the luck part... We did Fay and ISIS by ally-oop timing. Both found ways to roll dice in a longer termed pattern that does not suggest that would be favorable - like the annuls preceding that minor wind event that didn't do much in 1938 over Long Island. Apparently... it was a sultry misty summer with drizzly humid day toward the end of August and September... That smacks as a Bahama conveyor pattern to me - which typically needs to have a neg anomaly somewhere around WV ...with a WAR exerting west from the Atlantic. It was a like na na na-na daring the tropics ... But this year? Nah... this was ridging and heat prevalent pervasive then relaxed just in time for two days for something to turn the corner and up they rode. That behavior in its self... the "getting lucky" may be more like some kind of super-physical ( no, not "meta" - ) connective tissue between the tropics and the mid latitudes... I think I could almost Sci-Fi guess what that is - I think the expanded HC may also become more integral in timing those TC/latent heat delivery pathways into the lower Ferril Cell latitudes .. fascinating. Anyway, this feature out there looks remarkably similar to ISIS the way it was handled in the models...with weak or no reflection and over assessing shear stress. Yet, it nearer terms... the models had to correct for that a little - at any rate. 'Nough so that when it won the battle and turned the corner E of Florida still intact enough, it benefitted from lowering relative-shear and just barely made the "omg cut" as a categorical TC. Here we are... languishing in this heat and a ridge that the models keep trying to premature get us to early December again...and this thing comes along and gee! Go wonder, ...the GGEM puts a N-S orient baroclinic wall over the EC on D8.6 which could very well end up being another Bahama conveyor much in the same way. Seasonal trends... they'll getcha everytime - we'll see

That's an interesting factoid for a couple of abstractions... Namely, it did not "seem" to be very active, and perhaps more importantly 'why did it only seem so'? I think some of that may be my own personal conditioning, and though I pride myself on resisting the beguiling allure faux persistence ... I am human. By "faux" ( or miss-representation ..) there has most certainly been an increased frequency in designation - I'll give it that much. I am being sort of sarcastic there in that a lot of those events in this so-called over-active July, seemed - imho - to be a bit nit-picking to be honest. Were the July's of 1955 really less? Particularly when that era did not benefit from satellite or any other in the dizzying array of technologies availing to the modern observers. To mention, the science in classification of what is and is not a tropical entity was not quite as theoretically established or as indoctrinated as policy therefrom. When did the turn of phrase, "Phase diagram" and percentages over the quatradures become common practice...and on and so on. I mean, they weren't idiots, no. In fact, they were true fisherman because their tech mis se science did not merely provide them fish like alarms sounding off when DIVORAC pegs a threshold for ravioli status, heh. Haha, they're probably out playing Golf with an iPhone app networked to the TPC lab, "bing bing" ... "Damn, right on my backstroke". So between nit-picking via the virtue of technological evolution vs actually having to hand-draw geostrophic gradients while waiting for primitive non-ubiquitous radio buoys and/or fortuitously interloping shipping traffic ... with sleeves rolled up over cigarettes and coffee ( because of course ... the latter was still actually 'good for you' in those days) ...somewhere in between there might be a more "realistically" observed July... I'm trying to be diplomatically skeptical here... ...any "historical" designation of ooh-and ah for any very modern July that featured ground meat gets an asterisk - It would help 2020's street cred if it put up an overactive "historical" July that removed all doubt - blown open raviolis out there coughing out exposed llv whirls betrayed only by the remarkable achievement of HD imagery from 22,500 thousand miles into space ...is like cheering on privilege for making it home when they start on 2nd Base. It's really almost more notable as an achievement of human ingenuity and AI than anything else. I'm being tongue-in-cheek to anyone above half-wit comprehension. Actually, only an idiot would go against the modern end, as more accurate .. but that's the confusion. The debate is confused as competency - the "tree fell in the woods" in both eras, but we are just more capable now of hearing the thuds... Mind you.. the1950s was an active decade ... I bet one or two of those July's just might have had a few busted raviolis out there in their own unsung rights and heroics..

I’m going to be interested in whether the model’s call for a day five windshear of 20 to 30 nights from the southwest actually materializes at that particular latitude longitude; where they expect this would be tropical storm to be situated at that particular space and time would be a bit of a wind anomaly at this time of year at that velocity

With CPC PNA tconnectors all dropping wouldn’t shock me if that ends an abandoned middling trough sagging down the Appalachian Cordillera we end up in a Bahama blue pattern actually. There’s a seasonal transfer that also the last one that drew Isias up the coast was also at one point in the latter mid range a much deeper trough

So many failed crispies today. Tower after tall tower with sharp edges collapse just short Sick heat. tho. Unrelenting sear. T was 90+ by noon and still 90 until 6:30. Lot of hours at body temperature HIs

This heat wave was showing up in the ensembles for a while actually. it’s interesting in that the models balloon the hypsometric ridge ... after the highest heat has vacated. We’ll see if that really works out that way

yeah..the late day loopage out there seems that regions acquired some cylonic tendency in general, too - Also, it seems to me that NHC has a kind of quasi- reliance on the models too, for designating invests. I mean they should... otherwise, what's the technology for - but it does seem that if there isn't at least some ensemble support they tend to ignore these things... That, out there and this little whirl that actually, the GGEM from 12z does bear some semblance of a reflection of it now in the surface pressure pattern albeit weak. The one mid way did have a few runs a while back and go figure -

No one asked me ...but, not sure how to know given the present and recent trends in modeling. There's like .. zero trend. The american teleconnector agencies are mixed, with the CDC suggesting a warm middle latitude continent, while the CPC is tepid at best. Meanwhile, the operational models are flipping negative and positive in their anomaly distributions toward mid month every couple of runs. Three days ago, there was a more convincing warm look ... reasonably well shared among the guidance types. But has since sort of proven maybe was coincident noise. Probably just means normal ... boring but normal. A declaration that is a sure -fire way to get the models to throw up a firestorm heat wave on the next cycle, being the risk of course

There's an interesting small whirl some 400 miles E of Cape Canaveral FL that's been spinning for a three days there...it's presently obscured by its own CB flare-up ...but it's interesting - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Wouldn't surprise me... We've been getting the Kelvin-Hemholtz wave folding at continental scales... favoring cold plumes plumbing S into the counter rotation of the synoptic "tuck" earlier and earlier... It's the same thing on the way out in spring, too, and why we've been getting cold april and mays. I'm surprised we haven't repeat '77 but it may just be a matter of time ? But as far as August, just look at the GGEM from 12z ...It's doing it already... that D10 look is winter, period... It runs our side of the world through a mammoth -AAM subtropical ridge look ... with an upside down pressure pattern - high over Maine - no heat because of east flow everywhere. Hypsometric anomaly with no lower tropospheric warm is another reason why we've been above average ..but never winning the global race in the warming stuff..different discussion ... Anyway, by D10 it like suddenly folds everything over and ends up with an 850 mb 0C plume within a meteorological stone's through of Lake Superior. D7's synopsis does not connote D10 is going to situate that way but it gets there almost sneakily .. The models do this at times, their extended ranges will tend to reflect what has been happening at seasonal scales - so there's probably some causal linkage between the virtual and the verification there. It's getting to two solid months past the solstice and autumn is already walking up the driveway at 70 N so ... Anyway, my seasonal forecast is for early cold and a snow threat or two from mid October to early December...followed by the compression of the geopotential medium and the gradient speeding up exotically everywhere and then winter's ruined until the flow relaxes next March and we get a couple spring threats or May packing pellet cold snaps... Rinse and repeat... until mid century, when and where winters as we know them at our latitude are a thing of that past - welcome to VA

Mid month looks warmer than normal. American teleconnectors suggest so...and the EPS mean almost has -AAM look to it with stretched super-synoptic wave scaling. Has a double node ridge expanded from Colorado to Bermuda on D10...and rising height through. Look at the D7-10 GGEM operational, with a mega ridge and E to SE BL flow everywhere east of Chicago and S of Ontario - ...pretty strong argument for an expanded HC. That's a trade flow on the continent - I mean...it's the GGEM so taken for what it's worth. Anyway, if not heat wave results out of that... probably hearing insect saws with shirts stuck to moist backs either way

Yeah...I've been talking about this, this morning...even annotated a chart to help demo/illustrate the reasoning - not sure it is being seen or acknowledged... But the warned cells this morning - in my assessment - do not appear to be borne of the TC mechanics ... Those cells were IB generated as the environmental flow out ahead of the TC is SSW and is lifting over a frontalysis that is lingering over the region along the Mass Pike... When those cells speed bumped over the boundary interface, they likely closed off their updrafts briefly because of the shear profiles along that axis. Just sayn'

Sorry to "test case" you - but, I was testing to see how this stuff is read/comprehended - It's not a knock on you or any one person. I could probably use a bit of audience sensitivity too - But, I think there's too much posting and too much stimulus and people in general, we can't process the information "correctly" ...instead, take a riskier assessment of what is actually said by focusing on key words perhaps... Like that sentence I just wrote. There is a double entendre there: one, there is a socio-technological commentary about the state of civility as a consequence in how all this social media and informatica is a motivational force... at the same time, it espouses some smoldering resentment that such "art" gets lost, and the artist suffers for trying - in lieu of immediate gratification.. blah blah It's everywhere in western ethos. And it's worsening with the simultaneously expose tsunamis that is being delivered at a faster right than people can lucidly and responsible categorize and appropriately evaluate - it's like an information shock... It's a fascinating premise for a Cyber Punk Sci-Fi novel -

I think these early tor warned cells are more associated with convection running up and over the top of the book-end frontal boundary that was, as of 13:31 still draiped west to east ...sort of "frontalysis" in nature ..through the area. They were potent with high end DBZ ongoing ... but waited/rather suddenly tripped tor warning when they were roughly between the Pike and Rt 2 And below this residual boundary the skies are brightening like a proper warm sector would... There's some quasi behavior though - this TC is going to be "latching" onto these frontal structure as it natively acquires more and more transitioning to baroclinic physics, and you can kinda .. sorta see how it becomes "like" a standard cyclone and that frontal fragment over SNE would become the warm frontal arm?? Well, warm fronts have nearly ideal helicity profiles... and those cells speed bumping over that shear profile might have caused their updrafts to close off Just a hypothesis... Because for one, they are too far removed from the TC to really be part of it's specific forcing. You didn't ask...I'm just offering up this analysis to everyone and using your post as a launch

No... I was meaning that without this tropical cyclone getting an assist from the jet structure aloft, it would/could be assumed to be a trivial ( means not a big deal/worth discussion) ordeal N of NYC. But, ... the Euro adds some question about it being stronger as a system as it moves N ... and I added reasons why - that layering of concepts may have been hard to follow? Anyway, we may need to wait on the behavior ( it is sometimes referred to as "now-casting" ) to see if the Euro works out.... This is like putting in an order at Dunkin Donuts. If you order off the menu...your fine. You get a yummy coffee with cream and sugar and a frosted donut in your bag. But, as soon as you add or subtract from the menu item, you end up with a mystery raffle ...as to what in the f you're going to be eating for breakfast 10 miles down the road. Just bustin' ballz but .. even if a stronger system/scenario, there's still other things that need to happen to get those hefty winds to mix down - probably need to refer to scienced method for those determinations.

I wonder if the current tor warned cells are really mechanically a part of the TC's approach ... There is a book end front in the area, one more typically found in the lower mid Atlantic climo ...and I noticed that these cells appeared to trip the warnings as they crossed over that boundary, where the frontal induced helicity is likely enhanced...

There are is a plethora of 'plausible' behaviors as this thing rotates up and absorbed into the eastern Lakes trough axis this evening. A narrow region east of roughly VT/CT could average between light to moderate breezes for a couple .. three hours, with a few rotators triggering warnings whisking through, but the pressure pattern weakens as it is pulling away and when that happens ( Irene did that) the air suddenly deadens eerily calm, ..7 to 9 pm, with a putrid 78 DP hanging in an air mass that feels metallic.. I-95 may be too far east for anything ...

I'm seriously curious ... "tip going big" - what exactly did you glean from that post I just made ?