Typhoon Tip

Mm... there are two schools to this ... one is subjective, the other is objective ... You're 'typical' question here smacks a bit as though those two are being conflated.. 88 is in fact hot to me. Is it hot to Joe? I dunno - maybe. Maybe he doesn't find that so bad, and would be less inclined to categorize in the ranks of a hot summer day ...and on and so on. Same for Margaret, Sarah, Bill and Kevin... Half these people 'feel' as though that is hot... When one feels hot they're not likely to 'think' it is a typical of summer - necessarily - but a rather hot summer day. We can ask if 88 "hot" is typical of summer? Sure, but typical of summer and hot to sensation are separate phenomenon. You see? We can't really ask if upper 80s is "hot" and typical of summer in the same context ...

Yeah ..again with this 12z Euro. I'd watch that D5 -8 range for that to evolve into a heat wave a bit farther east over toward the OV ( hint hint ). Western Europe is presently being informed to prepare for a shockingly brutal heat wave by the end of this week and there is a little known teleconnector that when it troughs in western Europe, it does so on the eastern seaboard of mid latitude N/A ... and vice versa. Not sure if that still works in the summer - I'm inclined to think it would work less so due to the break-down of R-wave ordering concomitant with meandering shorter wavelength summer ... but, just the same, there is a continental subtropical ridge that's ballooning out there just west of Chi town over the course of this week - if we stretch the teleconnector field it may just make the cut. interesting...

Meh... 82 at Logan ... NAM was actually a tick too cool there... but a tick too warm at FIT... maybe. half to officiate it 6 a dozen half another -

Low freezing heights'll do that.. I don't think these tops are much more the 20 ... 25 k before their CAPE-starved collapsing

I think SE Mass has a sneaky tendency to steal scenes in plays like today... I see that all the time... we're struggling with virga CBS up here, ...someone down there pops a pea hailer with a house fire CG

altho I am hearing CC grumbling ... but it's these kind ... notice the abandoned anvil

We got the lapse rates but lack CAPE These remind me of desert SW/western plateau capillatus that start forest fire - heh... but seriously - they seem to explode more so into virga shrouded messes with only brief tendrils of rain making it all the way down.

See ... NAM's convective parameterization kind of saves that models usefulness in my mind. I've noticed this in the past... particularly at < 36 hour leads ...tho this one it seemed to peg further out in time... It sees these sort of tower days pretty well... I said two days ago, tongue-in-cheek, that SPC would hash New England out when it got closer in time ... based solely on the NAM.

Yeah... still yet another way to look at it... some have real angst issues with summer weather/climate, to the point where they have to do whatever they can to offset and escape the unmitigated horror of an 82 sunny outside - Anyway ...nice towers out there. A few even glaciating already.

Wow... https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/22/us/new-hampshire-accident-motorcyclists-pickup-truck/index.html ... Have to get more on the details to render any judgement buuuut... this strikes me as a Darwin award. I've seen highway cycling antics up there enough to wonder if there's local stunt culture in NH. And one that on this day and time, got in the way of common sense on this one. I've been driving N. on 93 and 3 ...more than a couple of times, when suddenly the whir of high compression crouch rockets shames my velocity on both side of my vehicle from behind. A few of which are even doing wheelies ... this at 70 mph. They're aren't all wearing helmets, too. I don't know - we'll see. But wouldn't shock me if this was a time when one of these transient made popularity gangs tried to pass the wrong vehicle.

Right on cue... when models and machines and man start the warm discussion, for very empirical reasons ..not merely speculative, too, snow finds a way into the fray. These utterly antithetical winter/snow themes ... they always happen. Not just because someone out there is snowing now - if they weren't ... we'd up on crag in the Himalayas somewhere...

Anyway, back here on planet Now ... Hey, a warm week looking more likely. Could it be, we actually succeed this time? The GFSX MOS ... despite the synoptic evolution of that particular model looking like a cool distraction whenever physics can allow it to ... has maintained warmer series of days relative to that synoptic appeal. It's funny when its machine numbers do that - look warmer(cooler) relative to its synoptics ... its like 'actions speak louder than words.' Its telling us lube up on the cool(warm) side in those instances, yet the statistics prove that under similar circumstances in the past, it must have busted - so the model kind of 'gets caught' lying. Heh. I don't know of any Euro MOS in existence ... but its synoptic evolution has now survived some four cycles back-to-back where it maintains 850 mb temperatures over +12 C for pretty much everyone in the pan-sub-forum, with the plausible exception of seagull-fecal glazed low-tide cays off Kennebunkport ME. Nick may be SOL up his way as the vestigial tendency to not establish a westerly component off the continent will still plague the NF/NS maritime regions... But for here back through the OV... provided there isn't substantive cloud contamination ... that's probably mid 80s to near 90 every day from D4 to 9. Tell you the truth, D6 threatens a very serious couple of days of SW heat releases but ... phew, duck. The pattern just gets it that close and then doesn't pull the trigger to really bulge the Chicago ridge axis in...which would probably ignite a continental conveyor out of the SW if that happened... But instead, despite the clear aggressive ( at long last ) rising NAO modeled by it, and the GEFs mean ( btw ) for that matter, the model deflates and re-establishes a NW ablation of the heat signal by late D9 ... It's close. I'd watch it... I'm not totally opposed to the notion so long as the NAO looks like this out there in time: The PNA is less correlative in JJA ... that reduction in that particular teleconnector is thought to be because the R-wave structuring around the globe becomes less orderly and also, meandering ... So statistically, a ridge in x doesn't correlate to a trough in y as frequently as it would in January...and on and so on. However, the NAO ... by virtue of both being a smaller domain space, and...close to us, might be why of the two it appears to maintain at least some usefulness during JJA N. hemisphere. Usual caveats apply... This is notwithstanding continuity ... We've seen stochastic behavior in the NAO prognostics from the GEFs mean. Also... the EPS ( thanks Steve ) was a little less emphatic with the NAO rise ...although it still had some. These curves above are also mop-ended... which means there's some disagreement with how positive the domain gets - which quite likely means 'where' is a problem too. But by and large, the mean is positive... If it finally breaks that way ... mm, okay. We heat up.. however much

This is fascinating conjecture for me ... Or perhaps, more than merely conjecture, sure ... I've also been strongly considering the 11, 22 and ( I think it's ) 300 year super-position of the solar cycle nadir. Solar mins in general are statistically correlate with blocking at higher latitudes ..and I am noticing that the negative atmospheric teleconnector bias in the negative has also been taking place in the N. Pacific arc ... WPO/EPO region. Things is ... I wonder if the haline cycle stuff effects the Pacific side; even if so, I don't know if it would even "mechanize" the atmosphere in the quasi-coupled state, the same way ... I think differently. The reason is because it is such a vaster region of ocean-atmospheric physics by comparison, 1, but 2, the entire distribution of AAM off Asian is also not the same ... Both those factors would intuit the forcing could very well result differently. Obviously.. .the underpinning reasoning here is that blocking in the EPO prooobably isn't forced by the N. Atlantic oceanic surface density model. All that said...we know that the -NAO relationship with thermohaline cycle is real. Given recent fresh cold water/glacial melt fluxing ...heh, it's factorable one way or the other. It's just hard to separate how much of that is present, and accountable...when also factoring in the depth of the solar nadir - this latter factor is important as that science is very clearly connecting. interesting.. There's also a temporal consideration, too; such as, are these correlations more prevalent in winter vs summer.

Ye-ha ...no shit. I was just looking at the 00z ECM up that way ... it's not that far fetched that some tedious nerd studying rain drops threw a windshield may spy a couple cat paws with this thing as is nor'easters its way up there. it's down -2 C at 850 in the cold sector there. Fuggin summer solstice cat paws - ... why does Nick live there again? ...actually more up toward NF

This has been the great ass-pack spring/early summer of all time for eastern New England. Yeah...tomorrow and Sunday in particular will put all this in memory but today is basically a microcosm of the whole last 75 days. everywhere east of the Berks and Whites is indundated... west of there... lots of sun.

FRH is also 23 C at t1 tomorrow over Logan ... using the NAM? risky. That said, ... it's seeing the backside thickness between 0 and 4,000 k as warmer than we may think - we'll see if it's right. That could also be contributing to it's LI's being so low. sumpin like that - also, keep in mind that the flow is very kadabatic tomorrow so we could over perform from that alone

This is how we like our backside CAA from anomalous exiting deep layer vortexes! 82 at most sites for a high tomorrow ...with spot towers for weather-nerdology. Then Sunday is starting to sneak up as a toasty day. The FRH grid has T1's of 25 C for Logan on a 290 wind over 10 kts, with RH numbers indicative of essentially 0 cloud. That's 84 or 85 in the 2-meter temperature ...and it wouldn't shock me if verification adds a tick or two over top. That's a damn warm day in an overall synoptic regime that 'looks' at a glance like a cool flow - This hearkens back to Brian and my mentioning last week that the flow is different. It's not as cold despite the blocking/vortex still hanging on for dear life. In fact ... despite the GFS fields, it's MOS numbers are all over climate next week. Interesting... It seems deterministic weather is more difficult than we think ... Lord have mercy if we ever do dome this bastard -

yeah...I was more than less trying to intimate that as well.. . Seems ticks are just an overall, ...exceedingly efficient delivery system for hell-on-earth.

It was never a slam dunk anyway - if anyone's chiding ...heh. I mean, it was always just a sneaky thing... We have a mlv lapse cold plume with a weak surface trough associated, pivoting through as an exit/encore performance around the back side of that Maritime trough ...so dicey and I agree, it's hit or miss. NAM's been stalwart refusing to give up on -3 LIs and warm T1 under cold 500 mb temps though.

heh... I wonder if it is possible to calculate the SB CAPE prior to the detonation of Tsar Bomba, 1961, Soviet nuclear test

Mmm ...nice to see those products buuut... with the PNA's overal forcing on the pattern becoming very weak in the summer ( to the point where CDC doesn't even calculate the cross-correlations with the other tele's during JJA ), that positive modality out there may or may not be instructive over North America. I like the mean of the EPS neutralizing the NAO though ... for all the mop-ending at CPC and/or inconsistencies over at CDC in handling that particular metric, just normalizing the sumnubitch might not be a bad two week run out. All told, weak forcing signaled via those products - which may default us back to oscillatory as well.

There's always been a Lyme disease hot bed down there... In fact, the origin/identification of the pathogenic spectrum began there, in "LYME" Connecticut. I think it's interesting that although the disease(s) that are tick borne have been found to focus all over ( really ...), that these hot bed regions seem to concentrate it. Where other regions don't. Probably the deer and other fauna species that are part of the whole life-cycles ( of which Humans share in that cycle) have over-lapping population .. But, all of that is changing too, because species migration appears to be bring non-native species of ticks to northern regions.

Man ... if this was January, one might be thinking we're getting some big snows over the next month https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Judging by the structure of the prognostic curves over at the sister site hosted by CPC ... I wonder if those CDC tele's are in flux. The CPC exposes disagreement among the individual members as the curve frays and becomes mop-ended beginning as near as D 7 true in both the PNA and NAO cases. So, the CDC are prone to change and/or could be doing so. Which may be true over all, regardless of model and cluster. Lately it seems as though that typology of spring stochastic model/ensemble behavior is still going on ... IN summer. The Euro's warmish 00z over all complexion once looking beyond .. day three or so, that's just straight up out of correlation wrt the GEFs. Granted, GFS ensemble mean is a different species than the operational Euro.. but, cross-guidance comparison has its usefulness as agreement is a valuable metric. Anyway, the GFS operational is as usual not helpful - as though it is April 21st. I think for now the course of least regret is to just count on 'buckling' continuing in the 50 to 70th N band around the hemisphere. The hemisphere is sort of split between two bands. It seems that band up N wants to maintain a seasonal oddity of retrograde/blocking that would be unusual for summer months, while S of roughly 40 N there is increasing subtropical ridge strength becoming more coherent - which is more climate appealing than the above. So these two vying for proxy ... prooobably the S wins...eventually... Hard to imagine this much nodal blocking in say ...late July, but stranger things have probably happened. If/when all that somehow situates its self to allow bigger heat numbers to envelope the Lakes-upper OV to NE regions, it could? But won't be favored right away. While the 00z Euro's overall complexion is not impossible, I'd almost plan on future cycles bulging the ambeint front S of our latitudes at any time. It's an oscillatory pattern really ...

I'd stick with that - ...if it finally breaks, chalk it up to 'every pattern eventually does' but, there aren't really any present indicators to suggest any such break is imminent at this time.

Here's a prediction ... by early Saturday morning SPC will have a Marginal region hashed out for eastern NE - If it comes true ...it'll move third world nations toward revolutionary angst, I know ... but, that GGEM has that cold pool/ML lapsy look now too. That's what we usually see consistent with our 'out of nowhere' pea hailers and 35 mph wind gusts..