Typhoon Tip

Mushroom caps ballooning all over satellite central Mass to eastern NY/PA/nj

GFS/GFSX MOS' have come around to hot Friday now... 96/74 at FIT ... Still has the 101/73 on Saturday ... My guess is what Chris and I were discussing the other day needs to be considered. And it has to do with the GFS heredity not yet properly handling BL Meteorology. It's may be overly mixing the column and allowing the temperature side of the Equation to rise to far. My hunch is it caps around 96 but with 77 type insanity... I mean, splitting "airs" there...right. 96/77 is probably about the same as 101/73 ... Basically a good day to leave your dog in the front seat of your rural 1984 Massachusetts chevy pickup truck that has a back gate wired shut - Also, has 96/73 for Sunday

Welp ...there goes my bike ride ...

Nice gully flooder out near Springfield..

Instrumentation ... every NWS site is substantially lower than just about every personal station tied into social media platforms... By a considerable margin, too. There's a sensible difference between 90/71 vs 90/77 ... I was outside here at lunch and we had to bail on the patio idea at the office - too unbearable after just 1/2 hr ( funny ...we were complaining about the office being too cool ... wham). Feels like the DP is higher than 71 ... but that of course don't mean diddly

So far... NAM MOS has busted 2 to 3 F most sites around SNE

meh ... GFS is just doing the same thing, oscillating backwards again... a run or two in the future, the other way. Highly confident of that happening about every second run, up or down. You can tell it's going to do that in the near term just watching the behavior of it ridge handling... If it's slightly flatter with the ridge, the mid range is aggressive with troughs ... Then, if the ridge is slightly stronger...troughs are overall less incurring to mid latitudes. It's been clad every time! Oh... flat ridge.. .here comes the YUP. It strikes me as large scale 'sloshing' error - for lack of better description. Where the whole thing is oscillating some 6 dm heights up or lower everywhere. That's a bug in the algorithms - when the whole thing moves en masse like that... up , then down... unilaterally, it's not likely real. More like an emergent property of a complex system - almost like "giga" motions in mechanics.

MD out ... watch possible.. TCU now...

Does look like SPC has rehashed the slight region a little farther N... now up to the VT/NH border... "I think" it was down near the pike early? ... anyway - sky has opened up markedly from the southern tier of NYS east through Massashusetts and temperatures are responding with rapidity. Should be mid to upper 80s in the interior south of Rt 2 by noon and probably if we don't set off convection sooner...headed for 90. This may actually be a modest sun bust/positive

It's angular in orientation. "the PIke" is west to east...? It may be warmer in southern VT than NE CT tomorrow, both of which will be cooler than NYC .. more like that. Just keep that in mind... and also, the cooler momentum/secondary push could come back ... It's just that specific aspect has backed off for the time being - that's all. But we'll see ..it might be able to get to 80 out your way... A DP slide back into the 60s is a good guess, too

Yeah.. most likely ... A moment ago I was noticing some changes in the recent complexion as offered by the NAM... In some rare scenario... a model might over do it on cooling. But as a general rule of thumb, if there is ANY contention at all within the orbital space of Jupiter, to cool eastern NE in an otherwise hot pattern... reality will destroy the entire universe to get that to happen. We mustn't forget that ..ha. Scientific of not ...this frustrated axiom exists for a reason -

12z NAM's lost the "BD" flavor to this thing for tomorrow... opting for more of a mere wind response/change do to the trajectory of the high pressure initially settling through the area during the day. In fact, keeps the winds at Logan at or < 15kts post the switch. This is different than prior runs ..particularly those prior to 06z's cycle. Those runs showed a wind shift to NW followed 6 hours later by a clear and coherent ENE pulsed acceleration to some 20 to 25 kts of sustained marine modulated cold ... That acceleration was the 'hidden' BD. There's less of that now. That secondary acceleration is absent from this run. It turns the winds onshore and as said...keeps it light. In fact, ALB's 2-meter may be 27 C tomorrow afternoon ...and with only 15 kts coming into the coast, I wonder if 24 to 26C may be common along the eastern Worcester Hills. Again ...prior runs implicated 64 F with strata and mist into those regions. Interesting. We're still getting the torridity interruption tomorrow... It's a matter of the details offering more or less within the confines of all that. Right now... the 32 km/meso seems to be pulling back on the cool side/momentum for now.

Nice Bahama Blue pattern here at D9 in the GFS ... GGEM suggestive too - ... But the Euro's in a different zone with semblance of rebuilding heat wave paradigm.

It's not going to be 'sunny' ? hope that's not the impression there should be some sun intervals during the mid day... 'nough to goose the temp and perhaps build SB CAPE and aid destablization... as latter concerns.

I was just looking at that ... and comparing to the hashing for SPC's SLIGHT that's primarily for S of the Pike... I wonder if that should be extended to southern VT/NH given the satellite trends. It appears we peel this open over the next hour or two... and gosh, what a high launch pad. I feel we are uniquely ( for our area) initially situated for creating a CAPE anomaly to put it nicely - By the way folks...this air is clearly of Barry guts origin. This reminded me exactly of that which engulfed the area the evening after Gloria blew through that fateful day back in 1985. The air had a kind of pithy heat - it's different than just high heat and humidity. It's hard to put a finger on it..but you can tell visceral WV thermal energy from continental stuff.. It's like the air is rich chocolate. Metaphors aside... the other aspect is just how homogeneous it is ... It was 76 at my place at 6:30 am ... which is about at the top of where I have ever seen the temperature at that particular hour and location in the 10 years I've lived there. Then, at none of the typical cool points along the commute did the temperature deviate. 76 ...everywhere. That's strange. Even at the Shrewbury light ...where a 4 to 6 F plunk is guaranteed... 76 ... That's tropical goop. So, anyway... sat seems to suggest we get some solar dosing into that - hmm

Cool down next week is de-amplifying slowly across new cycles, too ---- Thursday to Friday impressed me in the 00z operational Euro run. The Euro and NAM look similar at this point. They've coalesced around a weakly close low S of SNE during the Thursday ... With somewhat higher surface pressure lobed around central and N NE .. light easterly anomalies penetrate throughout the region ( terminating somewhere in NE PA ) ... Temperatures likely will held into the 60s or early 70s despite whatever MOS is indicating... Friday? 93-97 ... It looks like 21 .. 22 C at 850 mb over top a mixing west wind burst to the coast in the afternoon. Circa 1 to 3pm probably tsunamis heat if that does that. That could be 25 to 30 F turn around 24 hours. .. which, I suppose we've gone the other way when shock BDs p-wave a bomb blast of cold air before.. But it's not just temperature. DP goes from 61 mist to 75 blue tinted hill side stingin' sweat in the eyes. The air's going to smell like continental crotch rot. Granted...I'm just using the less refined synoptic charts we get at the PSU type sites... but, using those ..this appears to be a clear and abrupt bulk turn around .. replacing marine/summer cP ...with deep cT air.. and very abrupt change across an unusually disparate difference. Admittedly ..I was casting aspersions at the notion of a quick turn-around on Friday, yesterday...but, we are inside the Euro's particular verification dominance and also... the run its self has less overall idiosyncratic nuances offering distraction and just looks cleaner? But, yeah... this then goes on to be unperturbed heat through Sunday, which the onus now falls the GFS to put up or shut up being that where we are relative to model performances ... Basically, this looks like 93 to 100 Fri-Sun, period.

watch ... it'll be today and tomorrow as the longest stretch of 90 + we get out of this week... 18z GFS now fails Friday completely after Thursday's shit show BD ... and Sunday's now down to 92 ... one more trend run and that's it. Single day of heat - it's almost comical watching these models erode this thing like they actually personally don't like it.

oh it's not getting hot ... this thing's been a constant mind-f* all week in the models -

Mmm... we go through phases that last all different time spans, where the product of noise only seems to favor flopping things on cold or hot sides of normality. But, it's like coin flipping? You can flip heads-tales-heads-heads-heads-tales-tales-head-heads-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tale-tales... and think, oh, well, those heads early on were just outliers... But then you flip heads 80 times out of nowhere before returning back to every-other-one again... No pattern really - Smacks as something like that,... the whole March cool vs warm thing. Although, suppose GW (or GC) gets out of control sloped, than any given March may have a somewhat better chance of being warmer(cooler) respective of that.

I'm pretty sure if we convert sigma coordinates to feet elevation we'd find that 1, 000 is plenty high enough to be well above the BL logarithmic sloping... We've had boundary layers only 1,000 deep before.. rare. But like you said, give me a Sonoran release air mass up over southern Can and down ( I believe that was hot Sat back in the 1970s) and that direction is katabatic for Worcester .. they'll cook. But your right, ...the more typical continental conveyor is actually a borderline 'upslope' condition .. folks need to realize.. in neutral buoyancy if the air has any forced ascent at all, that is cooling the parcel - doesn't have to be all the way down to the condensation point to begin that process. In a way ... if it's 91 at HFD in a so-so DP and you run that up the west sides of the hills there.. you may actually lose a couple ticks that way.

On the fence... I wonder if this propensity for buckling the flow above the 45th parallel that doesn't seem to be going away from the models... Is that "perhaps" a clue that there is meridional canvas lurking here?

wow... that's pretty amazing seeing that turn around on the GFS like that. That does look like an abrupt whiplash heat pulse after Thursday gets mutilated by the GOM - huh ... well hell.

Ah haha - so you're sayin' it'd be totally legit too

Top notch angles dude ...

Like I said... and I don't speak for other Mets or whomever ... but, if the NAM is right about the mass and aggression in which it slams that in... Yeah, I think Friday disappoints over eastern New England. We just have too many decades of sore butts not to tip-toe by the BD dong haha.. Seriously, we'll have to see how potent that BD is ...