Typhoon Tip

Give it time - ...in any case, the adiabat's likely maxed. We're at the bounce temp while diurnal forcing tries to mix higher. It's like a .3 F rattle at the top. 90 by 9 failure haha. Actually, that wasn't hugely convincing. Some sites got in, but most did not. 10 after 10 was more convincing however.

What bout HFD and BAF ... heh.. I mean, the sensor could need a tuning - okay... But it's no one knows how 'badly' it is off, even if that can be proven. It's likely decimals - In fact, if it is 93 in Dorchester, I'd almost question that sensor more so given the total environment But know what - who cares. It's donkey ballz out there

MHT is 93/ 68..70 They are ahead of yesterday in achieving the T side of that, and averaging 1 to 2 clicks higher in DP. Could be a local side idiosyncrasy... CON come in pretty much dead nuts on yesterday. just sayn'

wow, 97 at BOS ( validation notwithstanding... which is going to be difficult considering HFS-BAF corridor corroborate - ) at 12:15 pm Their DP is 72 - Those numbers are sagged by decimals but the HI calculated presently to 106

There's definitely Meteorology/physics to support the notion that drier atmosphere's can warm quicker, but ...that is more for diurnal response. The problem here in new England is that even in drier BL days, we tend to have more cloud residue ..or even just atmospheric contaminants that we may not even see as much, but for being downwind of continental affairs, man and nature. Be it high clouds that seem negligible... any filtration at all dims critical amounts of solar radiation - even if not readily observed. 2 or 3% isn't noticeable necessarily as atmospheric contaminants even without visible cloud interruptions, but cuts into that solar budget on the day causing the difference in 98 versus 102 for marginal initial conditions. That is all true, but what is going on out west/NW more so transcends this, as uniquely super-structured parametrics converged on on that civility out there. This could be a rare return rate scenario, but one that happened to take place in an era that has verified "synergistically" enhancing heat waves, Globally, over the last 15 to 2000 years. put it that way -

Worcester makes 90 before Noon ... my my

95 at BOS 11:45 am ..nice granted, should it pass the devaluation effort for that site. 95 at BAF and HFD apparently nicked 97 already -

He just needs time to adjust his mechanics ... now that MLB has cracked down on 'artificial means' to enhance performance. He may re-invent himself ? Granted it is true, the organization/front office would rather win now, and not wait around any lengthy amount of time for that to happen - should it take awhile for 'im to come 'round. no - But, he has the arm throwing strength still - it's not like the cannon is gone. So long as that is the case, it's worth it to wait some time; and it is just hard enough to find 95 mph arms in the world to at least give it that chance. The gist on him is that when they took the "grit" out of the palm, the spin rates on cutters - across the league actually ... fell off - immediately showed a reduction in b-ball spin rates...etc.. Less torque, less gyro balls. So we all know this. Imagine trying to prove this 30 years ago, though? Ha. They did have the tech in place for counting revolutions for minute of a 90+ mph 2.86" diameter ball moving 60 feet 6 inches. This has probably been going on for generations is my point there - I mean, 'cheating' and getting an edge, without actually hurting babies ( Geesh) has been going on in all human-based competition ..I think the first documented case of cheating was 654,000 years ago in evolutionary past but don't quote me - It's another watershed moment in the game ...just like the' roid -home run derby of the 1990s, and the sign stealing shit in recent decade, now this. Eventually, we'll have cleaned the game up to the point where it is banal and uninteresting, and we'll be poetically forced to learn that much of our lust for the big game excitement can't happen when competition is utterly fair - or so fair that no side has enough of an advantage to trigger the spectacle people really came to see. LOL ... I say let them roid. Let them sticky bun their palms. If they are all doing it, than it's fair just the same. What's the difference ? Oh..I'm sure someone with an astute moment of insight may come back with a reason for that, but at the end of the day... hate to say, if the game's spectacle gets neutered down to some sort of robotic fairness, people will turn away from boredom.

Yeah details details... Just an orbital look - S diving height falls into an antecedent CAPE enriched environment. Not a bad canvas. Frankly, I'll just be happy if it water-boards rain rates here for a couple hours. Who the f cares if it does that on Wed or Thurs... need rain -

You realize that just because you said this ( and this cannot be proven as causal but absolutely is, mind you - ) that count-down is going to take a minimum of 600 days because next winter is now consequentially never going to happen. Nice goin' Lol

WORD! It may not be getting the attention it needs? Perhaps owing to the heat business in the foreground, but that looks impressive to me as the Euro descends height falls at the same time it accelerates/ ..or defaults ( actually) the entire NY and 6-state region inside a right/side exit/entrance jet field. With all this f'n SB CAPE, the Mlv lapse rates and the MU CAPE ending up in situ in growth. I wanna say, tornado 'tomography' or cross-sectioning in our neck of the woods has climate precedence for when troughs dive S ...not necessarily arrive from the W like in the Plains. That means the W boundary layer flow is actually in a positive (favorable) directional shear. And favorably also the marine component is pushed over toward France lol. Tomorrow and actually Thursday too, as the Euro and membership keep the trough axis W until late that day.

Heh, 92 at BOS at 9:55 ... Any takers on "10 after 10" LOL

We've hammered this facet enough so keeping brief. This really is an ideal heating scenario through a column that lacks the critical upper tier thermally charged air-layers/initial conditions to have brought this to a real dangerous scope. That's the shortest way to say it. The longer version ..ad nauseam at this point, is that we did not have that +22.5 or > C 850 and over hanging EML ejected from the SW/W U.S., in a critical timing prior to the onset ( synoptically ) of this anomaly. If we had, we would have parked that air mass inside this ridge and we wouldn't be struggling to get 90 b 9; it is possible would be talking 100 by noon! The irony here is that there is air out west available to this competition between real potential, and getting lucky that we are missing this - altho "luck" in the relative sense; it may be that it is rare to get that nexus of events. Unknown. But I think we are "playing with fire" frankly. You know, I remember back in late November through early January of 2014-2015, posting that we are doing that same playing with matches wrt to winter, because we kept getting side-swiped by bricking cold, but then it was timing roll-outs, en masse, just in time for synoptic rainers. It just seemed the south and N were just enough out of sync to keep them from bed- partnering ... That all changed on January 15 in the guidance that fateful year I wonder as we venture into the antithesis of July, what we can do with some of that W air if it should get booted E en masse inside of one of these topless ridges

Why is it that people "bun" emoji people for telling truth's they happen to hate -- Boy, that shows an intellect capable of real growth when you do that.

...in the interest of diplomacy - but yup In fact more likely began when "Ugh" picked up the first lightning strike burning stick in the early Hominid African savanna and got to thinking. That's when it started, if we really wanna asymptotic the mo' f*er You didn't ask, but the Anthropocene Epoch ? doesn't end well -

Caboose'ing this .. ..not sure what it means for your 'elephant in the room commentary,' but at least for this summer - I suspect we are in an above normal to normal departure regime. At times, this could be vastly warmer than normal. I suspect the basal temperature pattern seldom gets below normal - unless it is happenstance with a heavy rain or more local to our unique geography and a Labradorian NE jet for time spans that don't last as long as those spent in the base state.

…this is just some unusual/interesting environment shit going on – Boston’s low was 79 F, which took place between 4:25 and 4:50 am, before the temperature bounced back to 81 and sat there in torrid stasis through dawn. I've seen this in the past, and wonder if there's any truth to what it looks like is happening: as the corpuscular rays of the sun began tipping over the NE horizon, before the red disk even pokes up, it is as though the atmospheric wick is so primed (thermal momentum in this sense …) the temperature rises. Boston's temp appeared to rise before the dawn, perhaps responsive to just the diffused day-lights energy input. It is presently 90-ish by 9 am – and the index finger rule in weather prediction, “9 by 9 if you wanna make a hundo” is in full watch – we’ll see. But agree with Scottness that 97 to 99 seems a slam dunk. All happening with DPs in the 70s ! That’s the coup de gras. We may have Heat Index values of 105 to a surreal 107 F at some point between 3 and 6 pm - unknown mix result? OH, and one other aspect: the seasonal climatological hottest week of the calendar year is July 20th through the 28th

06z NAM put up a 33 C at T1 for Logan across two consecutive intervals - ...about as close to a hundred as can be possibly missed - probably 99.4 F in the 2 meter ... ha 12000435424 -0798 182610 78332415 18000466319 -1496 172711 78332414

BOS nicks a 'rounding' 90 at MesoWest's site by 8:50 am, fwiw -

This year may get it done in July

Yeah, subtle but there ... a trend to just be weaker overall with that weekend trough scenario. Truth be told, the whole plunking in aspect seems 'forced' ? almost corrective - like a whiplash maybe. Heights were so high then there's an abrupt collapse, and typically these models see any change at all beyond D5 through a magnifying glass ( metaphor for larger than they are, both in amplitude and area). We saw this all cold season long, Euro and GFS, where most notable distant storms ended up predictably ( due to persistent correction behavior ) pedestrian. Anyway, this trough looks like it defaults the area more toward seasonal humidity and thundery rains for 18 hours sometimes late Thurs onward, but then our dailies Sat/Sun may just end up more partly cloudy and just not as overall bad. We'll see how it evolves but this week's end smacks as a similar over advertisement.

yup , 88/73 BOS 8:05 ... narily missing 90 by 8

83/77 at 8AM .. warmest I've seen it, at this hr, at this address - 10 years. Other notable, BOS fell to a min of 79, and stayed there for just 1/2 hour before they bounced back to 81 and stayed there through dawn. They are 86/73 at 8AM. Not sure I've seen much warmer than that, at this hr, at that location either - 30 years

I hope we're keeping in my it is at the receiving end of an urban heat island spanning some 30 deg of wind direction dial ? maybe when the wind is right - may be worth it to expand that study to remove other factors, perhaps then isolate the instrumentation as a cause -

BOX was amusing in AFD with " ..absolute soup bowl " in SNE tonight. I think an upgrade to Exc Warning tomorrow imho based up trends today. 95 to 98 tomorrow favors the high end of that range, and would be 2 ticks higher than sites today as a reasonable outlook due to higher launch pad and thermal momentum off today. The torridity may have greater theta-e density ..i.e, insultingly 73 where was 71 today. Not sure I see how the sounding is drier - 20C at 850 is typical 36 C at T1 sigmas, which does not include the slope temperature at the bottom of the sounding - why is everyone f'ing fighting this thing.. Suit ur selves - anyway, Advisories cover it too so yeah, it's splitting hairs. I noticed Jersey office bumped ... Looked at the Euro... Sunday may be decent in the afternoon given a trend to bump that trough axis east of the region. Sometimes the models can be too pessimistic in NW backsides... Also, the front of that fiasco ( thur afternoon) looks interesting for convection to me.