Typhoon Tip

Cyclone, she's taking the N route but this 'feels' like a clipper burst out there nonetheless right now.

Haha... I know - it's like "positive trolling" lol... Or in psycho-babble parlance, 'bargaining' to maintain hope in the face of already proven futility - (sarcasm)

He's right - it whiffs ... It may have trended ? say that -

Yeah... I don't mean to lord this idea ..or abase what you just said there, because you're right - but I suspect there is some era/climate -relativity in the usefulness of the distinction. In concise terms, I think the velocity saturation/surplusing we are seeing ( anomalous wind speed in the balanced atmospheric state ) over the last 10 years ..is taking its "interpretive toll" on the teleconnector relationships. I mean in simplest terms, the -PNA/-NAO of 1955 ... isn't the same affair now. But I was just trying to add some plausible reasons why - running blocks at 60+N with 110 knot "NON -S/W" wind fields underneath is a desctructive interference scheme... We'll see how the next 7 to 10 days of this -NAO is handled ... I think we can 'squeeze' a needle thread. In fact, I am actually highly confident that some vestigial jet stream mechanics will ignite some limited overrunning/ANA ..if not weak low but the latitude it escapes the EC and impacts while doing so, ...prooobably comes down to that elephant ass polar circulation ( "Scooter streak" I think we joked in the past ??) hanging over top of us ... I have noticed a lot of run to run high sensitivity on where said axis of any system moves is directly being position when the GFS has been bumping that stream NE and SW of previous modeled axis. It seems overall .. the guidance' want the system but are having issues with up N.

Oh yeah...this is a weather board - Yeah, it's like a soupcon of 'unmanned fire hose' in how this poor performance is behaving in the models.

That books already exists:

Mm...I happen to like Ray's turn of phrase a lot actually. I have thought to self at times, this is a person that could do this too if he wanted - you just need a creative idea, believe in it..start writing ..and it feeds itself - so to speak. It's really built into all humans - we are language processor units. Dolphins...other whales... arguable, birds even ( now there's a real battle of wits! ), yeah, they have language - demoed and proven to be so mathematically ... But it's not the same, c'mon man. I hate those comparisons. WE DO TRANSCEND... as much as we f'up the planet and see examples of embarrassing stupidity at all walks of society ... there really is no comparison. We are all storytellers built in. And no, those species don't pack dendritic density and neuroplasticity required for the same kind of human to human instruction that puts us at a distinct and vast advantage. Let me know when dolphins communicate the theory that reality is just synergistic emergence of the Quantum Mechanics ... Musing in a novel, that the QM is but the projector, and the movies screen is our souls and our lives, and our existentialism. Let me know when birds generate vaccines for pandemics, based upon reading and learned via language spanning generations of science... Or, when the elephants f'n realize that we are on a planet, around a star ...around a galaxy ... amid galaxy clusters ... amid galaxy superclusters ... in a tapestry of superclusters strung together over regions so vast as to exceed any sort of comprehension; therefore for all intents and purposes is essentially infinite in scale... The only reason why we are limited in our capacitance to see that infinity, is because God is a coward that hides - hahaha...kidding. Anyway, I think Tamarack up there has some ability to ... these are different styles. And one doesn't have to be any kind of 'different level' I'm not. Trust me...If you meet me in person I'm a clown

You know ... I f'ed up when I wrote 'Dominion' ( above ..) First of all, I hate that title. It was supposed to be "Dominia," after the dark goddess of Russian lore, but it was too obscure for the publisher's taste ...so it wound up with the other. Thing is, there is already a goddamn Dominion in every f'n subgenre already and I didn't know that ...because I am shockingly and shamefully vanilla about Literary circles and art... I don't give a shit frankly. I like writing - I don't like reading.. weird I know. Anyway, what I wanted to say is that Dominion isn't written 'that way,' like that passage that folks seem to respond positively to - I really want to write in that way, more often. But, Dominion was written sort of caught limbo between that scientific jargon and the description efforts/humanity and it makes it sort of a difficult read I suspect. But, you know...I've read some books by well known authors ( I didn't say I don't read at all ) that I thought were were dry miserable wastes of my time but felt 200 pages in that I needed to see the investment through. Ironically...I may have cranked out one of these - I dunno... But I I think 'Weather Diaries' would resonate more personably and entertaining... ah well. Live and learn

Ah ..thanks ..I appreciate it but honestly Ray, I am not sure it's really in the ilk of interest of this social media's schtick - lol... I did pen a novel .. It's a marriage of Biology, Solid State Physics, that emerges A.I. inadvertently. Even dips the reader toes into spiritualism ..morality of having done so..etc. I never carried any grand delusions for having done so frankly. Truth be told it's not so glamorous as 1922 - any tom dick and harry's mother can self-publish ( altho mine was picked up by a pub. house). ... literature as a thing is saturated - there's thousands out there with 10 novels published, regularly contributing to syndicated columns ... and guest panel on creative teams for television and cinema. No one knows them or likely will. It's that watered down. But whatever ...I just didn't want to be 78 with a couple of marbles left rollin' around wishing I had done something. From private PMs to emails at work, to that perfect 2.8 beers into quaff lucidity that triggers fluid flows of consciousness sidled up to a pub, people have said I should try. heh...it is what is. - here's an image of the cover .. it's over at Amazon and Barnes&Nobles.. My publisher wants me to write another one too - oy... I don't have these things ready to pop out like Pez. I was thinking about doing one called "Weather Diaries" ... sort of a mash up between Christinisms, the Cosmic Dildo meets with the western limbed misconceptualized -NAO apoplexy -

Skies gray here and NWS' brilliant move to boo-yoo 1974 P.O.S. Series 2021 radar "technology" shows light snow ( ...I guess that's what that is...) spreading in so, cheers -

Well of course I do ... Jesus - I'm a science fiction author.... No but I don't think in this case there's embellishment in that sense ? I'm not after 'affectation' or gaslighting to incite a reaction or anything. As a sociologist ... obviously you know that compensating momentum has to be established in order to move a consensus, one that is by weight of historical convention and traditional points of views, all but immutable. That takes a bit of a blunt approach -

"Kernel of truth" - haha - okay dude

Two responses leap to mind ... if interesting - 1 ... no one should have been in a state of 'good vibes' if/when said vibes are aroused by yesterday's guidance images. They should have been wise, thus stone-faced and unmoved. It's venturing off into a separate arena of discussion why they do .. But keeping things to point: nothing changed going into yesterday and coming out ... The hemisphere is still in a circumstance that is highly unpredictable, relative to any range beyond 120 hours. Take the normal performance of any guidance, and jam a rack of M80s down their circuitry - that's what they are worth. Even the most advanced guidance tools available can't do it - I said this 33.4 times in the last week, when the blocking nodes are inconsistently placed on the map every other guidance cycle, or guidance type, at the same time pervades hyper fast progressive flow along and S of 40 N, that is just beyond the state-of-the-art of the technology. Think of it this way: blocking usually comes along with enhanced error; at the other end, progression comes along with enhanced error in its own right. Now add those two together, divide by 2 = ...ever heard the saying, 'two wrongs don't make a right' ? There is an emergent aspect though, that kills the rest - and that has to do with the fact that at all scales, the hemisphere is in a destructive mayhem. Nothing is positively enhancing anything else, because of these ongoing super structures. So... it's just the realistic rub of this era, of this winter, is that not only is model uncertainty a bounty of riches right now, whatever remains of that uncertainty is not supported to bounce or 'get lucky' in a positive direction, either. The 00z Euro hit my eyes this morning...no reaction except, yup - 2 ... personally I am not a huge fan of -NAO's and there is plenty of evidence and empirical data, both anecdotal and hard ..., that evinces it as over-assess and frankly, a fallacy of importance in enhancing winter storms in a favorable way . Not saying its zero...but, it is in fact the Pacific that actually controls whether the NAO does its things - it does so via "non-linearity" of wave dispersion mechanics...blah blah... folks just have to realize that the flat high speed -PNA sends robust ridge into 90 W, but then the flow relaxes in the Atlantic, and that causes latent heat to flux/dump off into the NAO domain...block ..with a PV pinned over Ontario... That whole integration is a west--> east forcing and is a manifestation of that transitive relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic. It's non-linear, because wave A ( Pacific...) creates wave C ( NAO ) ... while wave B ( in between...) may or may not even seem to perturb as the energy of A passes through its domain. That's really what's always been happening - in principle. Having said all that... the forces and the NAO/ blocking up there is not really the culprit. We were getting boned before the NAO emerged. In fact, setting the records straight, the -NAO is really only three or so days into its (finally!) realization on the charts. We are four weeks and counting, passing through three patterns now, ...no results. Neither of those patterns were really conducive since the Dec event.

Maybe an example of GW or whatever it is .. flopping marginal events toward wet more so could be that big nor'easter in March 2018 ... That's the one where the GFS kept setting up the region with 39/31 F, with 3" of QPF at ORH. We were thinking it was impossible to sustain that WB gap with all those parametrics in play, thinking that would be the model's typical BL thermodynamic problem ... and it would probably be 33 F glue. But ... what happened? It saturated alright! at 35/35 with cat paws in a flood watch. That storm moved away SE out into the Atlantic because of a -NAO western limber too - showing how useful that NAO was at supplying a Nor'easter with cold. Ugh. Heh, I guess it was March - it's getting late. But we also had a thick pasty pruner event with power hiccups a week later at more of a 32 F proper spring blue.

Mm... I dunno - I wonder if climate change is taking those marginal events and making 'em more rain - I've posed supposition over recent years that our "flop direction" is more apt to cat paws than parachutes in the past 5 years - ...just wonderin

That's got it's own rewards, though, Scott - the outside <-- in perspective. I run through that in the summer, all the time, ...when a tower lords near-by, and begins to glaciate and you hear the thunder - good one's even pop off a couple of + strokes from vil to Golfer ... Oh, I wish I was under it. But then realize, I wouldn't see that perspective...the sun side lit nebular plume - . I mean we can't be both places at once; and when underside and the winds may be swirling, the air silver with occasional hail dongs and bright flashes, enjoying that reward, I often wonder just the same what that pig looks like from the outside. That 'curtain' effect is real ...I saw that in the December 1992 flash over to heavy snow from heavy rain that I've extolled tails about ... It's true though...seeing that dense curtain sweep across the River from the elevated vantage of Fox Tower, and drop the visibility to < 1/4 mile almost immediately was unworldly ...

I almost imagine what happens of them 4 and half days is that both that 26th, and the 29er end up flat sheared "sun dim vis" shred fests to 1-3" maybe a lollipop 4" ...

right

I don't like the fact that those are riding over the top of a third trimester pregnancy in the deep south -

Ah... sorry, but it'd have to be an anomaly nested inside another anomaly to get either one of those two Euro depictions to transpire. Which, is compounding the odds against - it can happen though. And I'm not numb to the notion that other guidance are showing more interest. That does lend something of confidence.. That said, we are still stuck with greater than average uncertainty beyond D 4 .. 5 in any given guidance, to to the inherent limitations of fast flow under/30-50 N with inconsistently placed blocking above those latitudes every other cycle/model type... Those two aspect working together is beyond the state-of-the-art of the modeling ambit I'm afraid. I am also not numb to the crowd sensitivity in the matter, and that bruised backs don't need reminding of inherent limitations - I just figure/hope folks don't get carried away in those solutions. If we carry that look with several cycles ( more so than less...) and end up on 96 hours ...different ballgame perhaps.

My Met friend is right. The cold air did get muted this week ...

GGEM has moved the entire polar branch of the westerlies through SE Canada ...NE of its 00z axial position by some 1500 km ...becoming more evident by the 120 hour interval, and then maintains that bias through D6/7... effectively allowing the 26th to both maintain more coherence in the meat-mincer machine,... but also a more N trajectory.

You make fun of that .. because you hate the fact of its truth and inevitability - face your heartache and conquer that way. That's your salvation - through acceptance.

I noticed something subtle about the UKMET ... notice it's NAO block is more over the Canadian N. country/archipelago - it's not really over even the D. Straight region. In fact, it's so far W that it's even come off the western boundary of the domain space somewhat. Then... the wave in the M/A is suddenly situating enough N to at least clip CT-RI-SE regions... ? Not sure that's unrelated - Thing is, this is delicate needle threader pattern ...I mean like situational stem-ware situated between a couple of elephant asses. It wouldn't exactly be the first time that placement and amplitude of blocking nodes was inconsistent in guidance ..lol

Yeah sir - in the spirit of commiseration only ( so taken with the grain - ) ... the end of the 06z GFS operational ends the first week of Feb with still nothing to show. And at that time, we are passing through the event horizon of the solar nadir's end ..heralding in solar spring. Oh, the climate and lag and reality all team up and keep snow chances going until May ( stealing our warming/warm season when it does ) granted, but ... in the spirit of commiseration, if we're still in with this crap on Feb 6 I'm checked out. I don't care if 1888 walks through the door - I don't give a ratz shit f-sake what it does.. cold season shenanigans take a backseat to visions and memories, nostalgia of warm season affairs. And no, that does not mean I'm tying those aspirations to the cinema of model depictions so don't anyone try to couch the above sentiment in with that lunacy -