Typhoon Tip

It's precisely correct - imho that is... I've been op-ed writing theoretical missives on this site that exactly illustrated that propensity to behave that way for a couple few years. Really, there are hallmarks of this tendency going back 6 or even 8 years too - It's been a gradual onset... It's seasonally lagging winters into springs; it's triggering prolapse of winter patterns earlier than normal with cold pops and heavy frost, and packing pellet virga CAA events ...snow storms in November are almost 50% return rates. Anecdotal incoming: but that was rarely so inspiring in my youth, and I'm middle aged fwiw ... living in a new realm. Since 2000 some 2/3rds of the years have featured either, snow in the air, or snow supportive air mass transports to Chicago and Boston latitudes throughout Octobers and or Aprils and even Mays. And you are right ... the mid winters ...not always so successfully appealing.. I believe the reason has to do with gradient saturation .. I keep saying this, people need to start studying this shit ... I am not making this up!! ( not directing that urgency at you per se..). The Hadley Cell has expanded some 2 to 10 deg or latitude laterally outward, north and south of the Equator, ..strongly collocated in time with the observed global warming trends, since the late 1970s ( https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ) ...it's all contained in there. Folks should really start reading and plumbing into that stuff because the traditional perspective of climate and seasonal modalities ... are becoming increasingly outmoded - But sorry I don't mean to preach to the quire...just sayn' As the HC expands...and here is the confusing aspect: The polar regions are warming ( particularly the north polar region(s) ) much faster than the equatorial regions in terms of scalar, measured temperature increases. But, the tropics absorb and express warming thermodynamically more readily because of diabatic physical modulation, ...which means...hypsometric expansion... for one. But, that also means that gradient increases as the balloon expands and encroaches on the mid latitudes. What happens when gradient increases in the geopotential depths? WIND Well... there has been a marked increase in ground-based velocity anomalies noted by airline traffic during this same time of expansion. It's all related... But, that is important because the x-coordinate velocities are beginning to exceed the stable Norwegian Model low scaffolding ( in the means...) so we are seeing a morphology in the distribution and typology of governing precipitation causes/ events... Having said all that ... I don't personally see how this stuff necessarily has to mean lower snow... either. Or even lacking cold for that matter. Maybe faster turn over between extremes - I could see that. I mean, yes the polar region is warming, but we're still talking -30C at 850s available to tap into in winters... I think what it is doing though is disrupting the storm orderliness - R-wave patterns are less able to remain stable...etc.. I see a lot more sheared out busted ravioli systems in the winter... Storms tend to move quicker too. But, that lack of orderliness ... that means by virtue one's winter is more open to buckshot odds... You almost want to land into a stable pattern like 1978, 1987, 1993, 1995 or 2004, ..2015 (fluke)... which almost made storms prebaked.. man those were great years .. I also agree with your ending comment - clearly as is the case with the GFS in particular, that model seems to just ignore the season altogether beyond D10 and rushes to Thanks Giving already. Pretty sure we are days away from a 300 hour Lake effect snow synoptic illustration on that thing

Try to hard? what... I asked a question - 'backing off what' ? also - that graphic is shirking comparing the model's own synoptics... too cold, period. One of those two gets corrected - either the synoptics step down...or that product warms getting closer. One or the other.... I've often noticed the Euro's graphical products consummately run cool bias relative to synoptics for mid range + ...although the 2-meter temp one seems okay - ..of course, Manfield CT is probably going to be colder than everywhere else lol

Oh of course... Sandy ...some 200 miles landfalling farther down the coast, still managed to fill subways of lower Manhattan to the point where near- drowning rats were squeezing out of the sewer grates and running up the access stairwells... And that was just spillover, indirect wave-action storm surge. That's the same as Katrina - few really discuss that Katrina didn't actually hit New Orleans... Battery walls? Joke - yeah..it's a good start. But a Cat 3 accelerator 'hooking' from SSE into the NY Bite waters would probably shut the city down and not as a euphemism either. Obviously FEMA and maybe NASA and whomever else org with wherewithal ..runs very sophisticated environmental impact models that are based upon geo-physical equations of momentum and thermodynamics, Earth, Sky and Sea. - man ...you talk about cinema! getting into the 'cutting room floor' and editing input parameters would be nothing shy of dystopian porn -

You are polite my friend But we all are the bold - ... After the fact, I was just sort of offering a plausible explanation there, at least opening some avenue to understanding why that appearance of hypocrisy exist - I mean, if appreciating nature's destructive potential is indeed built into us, than the 750,000 years of our evolution that brought that innate ability to bear ...might have a wisdom in itself - it is needed to prepare. So in a way, maybe that transcends what might actually be a shallower judgement of having a double-standard. It seems to make intuitive sense all the sudden - if you don't appreciate ( really 'respect' ) something, it will kill you - That's almost natural law. There is a difference though between respecting, appraising significance, versus the 'awe' ... I think it could be a point of criticism ( perhaps ) if that 'awe' becomes cinema. It does seem to be 'entertaining' for many to watch a dam fail... even if there is a neighborhood visibly in harm's way from the elevated vantage 2,000 feet hovering helicopter with film crew, capturing houses unseating from their foundations and crumbling into liquified brambled torrent of debris and blood. So,.. hm, I may also be overly contrite to those that gawk at the specter with seemingly blithe simultaneous awareness as to the misery that whatever they are watching is likely to afflict. interesting - You know, I remember actually having an 'enough is enough' sort of disenchanted loss of any entertainment value last Autumn when that 180 mph tempest sat immediately astride Grand Bahamas for some 70 hours like a cosmic scaled lawnmower - only the blades of grass were the archipelago down there. One particular chilling photo I recall emerging on the web in the days aftermatch ... were personal clothing hanging and pointing down wind, frozen in time trying like vestiges of a crime. Festooned amid the trees also denuded of any green - they were like ornamentally replaced said foliage with human clothing. That clothing either came from a body, or... the body's house - most likely...

Euro backing off ... backing off of what ? If it's heat ...I see D6/7/ and possible 8 with some argument as being upper 80s minimum on the 00Z operational run. 850 mb features a lower latitude Sonoran heat release taking the southern route ( Arklotex ) and then being pulled up along the cordillera of the Apps and wafting to SNE by D7 ... D8 ( I suspect ) the model is too aggressive leading that day with the trough magnificence it presses through southern/SE Canada which if true, may delay that cfront. I base this latter idea on known model bias/tendency to take any trough 'dent' it sees over Manitoba and do that over Ontario... It looks like it's getting too much curvature in the flow going from D4-6 in there N of the Lakes region... But if not, that's two days of 850 mb temperatures over 18C ... I dunno...maybe you guys are talking about the (06z run + WSI extra-double top secret ensemble math + giggidy lust for winter to kick in)/3

You two are funny Yet, you're wantonly egging-on these natural phenomenon ? You can't have the LI express then - ... shoot It's not an admonishment. We all do it, who are into the "wonder" of natural events as hobby and covet particular/personal reasons for that fascination. Age old philosophical dilemma ... we want to see it; we don't want it to happen. Just had a present leap of thought: maybe it is some instinctual thing, the 'awe' and 'wonder' are really like part of the human advantage over all other critters of this world's so far that have failed evolution's test. We perceive cause-and-effect with godly superiority over pretty much any species that even remotely comes close to our sentience - all observations included in that. How do we know - because we put meat-wagons deliberately into orbit, and bring ( usually...) those wagons and the meat they contain, safely home to talk about it. If you turn that coin over ... we have a particular draw to witnessing nature's cause-and-effect, perhaps because in some wired sense of it ...we are uniquely situated to appreciate how A forces create Zinc results. Our ingenuity does the rest... Never thought of this before but is makes sense... the awe of nature is built into us. And, it's also got a pragmatic advantage that if and when we observe and appreciated the awe affect, we expand our understanding of the effects of nature (preparatory). There's something to this... that maybe the 'appraisal' circuitry is really what separates us uniquely from othe animals... Not so much 'tools,' 'fire', and 'language' or 'religion'. And, all species have failed evolution by the way; it's been a matter of when and how - ...different discussion.

You know ...it's funny..the morning WPC current surface ob shows that front still has not moved more than ~ 50 miles from the same sun-up position and axis of orientation, since yesterday at dawn. We were right to assess the boundary as having difficulty intruding into SNE during yesterday. I thought the warm front might get to HFD and I don't think that actually verified - though close? In any case, what were the bulk shear values - I didn't look...bummer. But it is truly astounding just how gradiented rich the region was between BOS-LGA ( rough coordinates..) during the day yesterday ( thermodynamically...). ... then, to run a mid level jet perturbation over that gradient meant hell to pay... Weatherwiz I think should get some foresight credit for the clearing offering some diabatic assist to instability on the polarward side of the NW-SE orient frontal boundary. I think he mentioned that, but... I'm not sure which side of the boundary those supercells were riding... interesting. The thing is, the boundary was initially SW of the axis of SC tracks, and it was repositioned somewhere in CT during the late morning early afternoon... when the clearing took place - not sure which happened first. Was the warm sector clearing? Or was the ceiling saturation drying from the sun and then the sun warmed and mixed out the shallow air mass allowing the warm front to reposition - ... geeks paradise -

Yeah I was going to suggest a seiche wave effect too.

reminds me of what happened farther east last week -

There's no question the warm boundary is currently collocated with the 500 mb streamlines ... It makes sense that it may have unfolded to about HFD over to SW RI... It might have had a chance to get to the Pike but we also have cool air banked in; viscosity/local topographical effects that are impeding. Mentioned earlier... we deal with limiting factors endemic to this region... in that the higher els of the Berks tends to pool dense air and protect it once said pool has filled in ... I wouldn't even be surprised if there's some SW push as this air up here is getting cooler with this rain too -

Nah...that doesn't mean the warm front is through there... Side's WPC doesn't agree -

yeah...and in the defense of the world that exists outside my skull I do tend to come off heavy handed with principles of Met and that probably rubs folks the wrong way ... heh, gee ..ya think ? anyway if the sun comes out and can diabatically heat; that can aid in warm frontal leaps ... right on! However, part of that successful leaping means the DPs actually have to come with it. Without them, it's really just a lucky sunny interval in an otherwise cold butt plugged typical New England stew - which frankly, I'm inclined to think that's how this results... Also in that as we type, that line is plugging SE and will prooobaby ( I'm guessing ) denature the atmosphere to a swath of low clouds afterward. I can't wait until tomorrow... The NAM has 30 to 40% ceiling level RH over the region at 8am ...with offshore flow at 850s supporting about 83 F ... totally different day

Not sure that matters... Lot of posting about the sun. Okay, but it's not likely to be enough. This cool air mass is a thick anomaly... it needs two, June 21 sun disks in the sky to overcome lol

The present linear complex pressing quickly SE through upstate NY should put the k-bosh on this for good... It's got some pricey DBZ returns along the axis but nothing triggering warnings ... It clearly also is terminating into an overrunning synoptic plug with crumbled elevated convection kernels to offer pulses of heavier rain in side a light to moderate for a couple of hours. But I'm not even sure the western end of the line outside that shield is really in a warm sector... Anyway, it should cool the BL further and that's the ball-game

lol, you may be okay ...I added a sentence to that -

I would put the 850 mb warm boundary inside the gradient - because the boundary is not straight up and down ...it is sloped, such that that it terminates/escapes skyward above the respective sigma levels in the x-coordinate ...so, it is deeper over CT and entry into the boundary interface above that level over S Nh ...so the front is really bifurcating this image an angle - although ...wait...is that doing the depth of the column or is that an just the 850 slice... I may not be right - depends on the product orientation

Heh... you need to have one of those south shore/east shore sea breeze convergence CBs that parks over SE zone and rains out over 2 hours... sending out outflow wedges that cause back-building... you've managed to miss the right of passage for your neck of the wood this summer. That's not fair, huh?

You didn't ask but "no big heat at all until next summer" is pulling at my shoulder sleeve in general. The trend all year since the snows of May ( ) alas! finally yielded to summer, has been the models either over extending heat ( Euro ) in the latter mid and ext ranges, or the GFS over abrading them S because that model refused to migrate the core of the westerlies N like a seasonal good fair player should. Somewhere in between these respective biases, we put together a warmer than normal summer. But, we notice that there were no/few big heat dailies beyond norms? In fact, I wonder if the number of 95+ days we actually had were below normal. We did this summer off something more akin to GW ... no question. If I extend the link ...well, shit here: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ...I'm sick of referencing this stuff... this is all stemming from veracious sources and is based upon empirical data -derived objective hypothesis and theoretical application ( got to dispel that strategic knee-jerk denial mantra right off the bat!) ... It is clearly stated in these reports that nocturnal low is thermally more residential to holding the temperature up over day-time highs all over the planet ...but in New England, we also have our geographic/geo-physical neggie feed-backs on preventing EML and/or super charged 850 mb kinetic layers from penetration to our latitudes ... blah blah preaching to the quire I know... I was just pointing out, just in case, the reader is confusing an above normal ( perhaps historically so) summer with a "hot" summer lol... But it matters, because conceptual that trend connote we can lose it in the other direction pretty quickly with continental evacuation of theta-e. I did a misplaced op -ed rant just now over in that convection thread for today ( probably should have put that somewhere else...), that covered the odd-ball nature of this vortex NE of Maine that is really causing this cool departure here... It's related to why I think we are going to have trouble other than brief excursions into warm sectors from this point forward. Yes, ..in effect the the back is broken ... But it's not because there's no longer heat continentally available - it's because of the circumstances surrounding unusual and earlier than normal higher velocity ambient flow causing earlier than normal R-wave genesis patterning ...and that tends to feature +PNAPers...

Off -topic but this whole cold banking into Maine and SE Ontario around the SW arc of that seasonal anomaly whirling around up there, also indirectly conducting SPC's failure like a great maestro of a symphony called poor allocation of technological wherewithal ( heh ), it is all happening because of a faster than normal ambient wind energy in the hemispheric scope and scales. There's all kinds of mirror feedbacks popping up all over the planet like that. In this case the unusual ongoing subtle but real HC expansion is triggering lingered higher than normal jet velocities that have empirically been observed all over the NH during winters, carried over in smaller proportions but non-negligible during summer. Wave mechanics at super-synoptic scales then means that R-waves didn't get quite as lost in entropy as they normally would. One should simply not see this on a weather chart in the first week of September, when looking at 1800 through about 1982 reanalysis as one's template mean: I mean, they don't disappear altogether; we're talking about "approaching"? But that up there represents vast, deep constructive R-wave fed-back anomalies that are both x-y and z coordinate not supposed to happen when compared to the previous data mean suggestion - clearly something has changed. And, that is an assertion based upon persistence, too. This is a snapshot that is increasingly more common really since the super Nino of 1998 ended, albeit more noticeable with increasing frequency spanning the last 10 years. It's important to note because we are transition from the old guard to the new behavior norm with the GW stuff and many middle aged weather folks and enthusiast are defaulted to being the unfortunate inheritors of different spectrum of experiences, from 1960 through 1998, as as their guide. Anyway, this vortex up there, I watched it closely evolve since 10 days ago in the EPS and the operational version... as well as the GFS cluster. It really didn't set up like a typical synoptic progression. It's really like the atmosphere spontaneiously "gapped open" and then that space was defaulted into a low pressure node - it really appeared more so to be harmonic planetary vortex/R-wave ... ( pseudo " rogue" in the atmosphere ) that created this thing up there, more so than a cyclone maturing in the flow in the standard sense of the "Norwegian Model Low" NML. This is a result of a global warming as a wild op ed assertion that is guaranteed to role other Met eyes. But, you cannot drive 70 to 90 kt sustatain jet mechanics over the arc of the N. Pac into western Canada, without wave mechanics becoming more than neutralized at any time of year. Season is irrelevant ...it's about kinematics at that point... This is why we have been entertained by so many unusual CAA events in Octobers ... deep enough to send 'packing pellet' snow in the air, if not unusually early wet snow from synoptic events since this tendency of HC expansion began in the late 1990s and has advanced since ... intruding upon the lower Ferrel Cells latitude ... and the problem therein is that the boudnary between the HC and FC is amorphous...It's not like you put a ruler down on the 570 DM contour and assume away. The velocity is skewing the season end points. It's inducing 'fold over' trough nodes like this in autumns and in springs ( they are somewhat analog to hemispheric scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz waves). This needs a definitive empirical data fetch...but, I personally observed perhaps 5 autumn and/or springs with snow or snow-supporting atmospheres between 1970 and 1998 ... I have witness this 15 times since 2000, while all this HC and gradient saturation speed anomaly stuff become ever more evidence.

Not to be a douche and you don't know me ...I don't think .. but, I don't believe that front actually can move NE of it's current position looking at this at a broad conceptual approach to this situation. ..as in fluid mechanically it can't. Then, after that notion... one has to consider New England's climatology with BD-pinned fronts, which is just a dense clay of other geographical feed-back no-no's - eesh The flow is paralleling the boundary; it's like all of the analytic Meteorological brain trust has gone mad. When do warm fronts penetrate through an abrasion flow? That is like ..physically impossible. This situation seems(ed) dead to me when I saw that yesterday in the models..W-NW flow at mid levels. What is SPC using? Now, granted ...that shuts off any hope of "SB" in the SB CAPE.. but elevated... mmm maybe. But they are not talking about "elevated" per se convection in the morning write up... Which, by the way folks - there's currently a cut-off vortex near the 50N/50W position slopping cat -paws over eastern Ontario above the 50th parallel, and that feature is pinned in position. That backlogs the W-NW or arguably more NW flow at mid levels here, which pins the warm front there... end of discussion. Now, this was all modeled ..I am actually interested in how SPC came by their enhanced geographic layout - because looking at these very real and reasonably well modeled synoptic circumstances, I don't see how they come by their risk assessed region like that. The only way I see Enhanced clear to Springfield Massachusetts ... is if clearing opens up sun almost entirely ( 90% open ceilings/cloud extraction) and the atmosphere gets diabatically forced by the sun... but, the sun is now mid April in intensity ... ( for perspective ) ...It's not May-July out there so even so, its harder for the sun to do that at our latitude and depth of atmosphere east of Berkshires .. Moot anyway looking at sat trends... However... ugh, I am - reluctantly - interested in if there is an elevate hail risk where any stronger convection that is feeding purely off the 850 upglide parcel lift on the flop side of the front, and is paralleling it racing SE... yeah...maybe. But, we may as well not even call this a warm front. .. There is a 101 synoptic term that is out there available for this sort of phenomenon and it is called a "stationary" front. And, with the mid level flow abraded(ing) SE that like it is ... sawing off any warm intrusion attempting to mix down... that leaves only one possibility - the models are/were wrong ( but so far nearing mid morning the pinned front is well handled) I guess if the vortex NW of NS/NF weakens during the day, and the mid level flow veers slightly... and the stationary boundary does actually "warm" for a period of time...it might intrude into CT ..but that's not modeled to do that... I don't think ?

Don't feel so bad ... there are two distinct chances for "responsible lust for destruction" on the 00z Euro beyond this joke, each far more interesting than this one ever should have been allowed to be...

Nope ...

oh you laugh ...but it's just a matter of time before we get a transgender hurricane ...

Laura's eye looks like it's just taken on the stadium structure -

The outflow from this thing has truly taken on awesome geometry - particularly as it fans mare's fractals over the entire expanse of the eastern Gulf -...wow...that's probably helping to intensify this because that kind of superb radial structure means huge mass necessarily needs to be conserved and that mass is coming into the bottom of Laura's chimney ...that's how that works... which is all synonymous with lower sfc pressure.