Typhoon Tip

It'll be wrong.. can't construct -NAO blocking ridges when there's too much wind velocity feeding in to the domain at mid troposphere -

Right ... a -7 standard deviation airmass floatin a storm through it tends to normalize matters

It’s why our big heat has to come on a WNW or even NW flow as counter intuitive as that may seem. it’s also why some 2/3rds to 3/4 of all NE ‘severe’ days will feature line gapping or splitting

Oh I’ve been talking about that geographic truism for years yeah I have even described that line as LGA to PWM I think of SNE as a continental-marine hybrid climate. Ocean modulates too much too often not to be considered as something like that.

Quick hitting NJ Model low/ .. sig event implied by 192+ on the bestest model there is, the J M A A A A

I'm expecting that to do that... chapter one in a new story. It seems the models and forecaster efforts are struggling to parse out what is what from the 12th to the 17th ...that is the regime change modulation in that range, and it may come in a couple of trough progression amid a flow that is vastly speeding up ... (that being near the front side). In the wake we establishing a more gradient saturation from midriff Canada to the Gulf o/ Mex ... What we see happening after the 15th is there is a subtle flow bifurcation/ .. not quite a full-on split in the conventional sense, ...but there is a vestigial tendency for the PNA to neutralize ..that wants to pull the at first Rockies ridge orientation closer to the WC proper of N/A ...that tends to calve the flow east of the Rockies... the 18th event the GEFs are fiddling with ( and some of those are bombs!) ...is actually interesting because that is Pac wave that ends up in that quasi S/ branch... and east of MV that may yet still be a subsume favorable environment because there's semblances of retrograde tendency still going on at 60 N... so the hemispheric counter-clockwise/ ..relative rotation is still there. This time it may work out better because what screwed the pooch over the last 10 days was that no one or the models really pegged a nebular pattern of lax gradient in a -NAO pulse. That's a weird form of that... Best to just not include this recent week in any trend factorization - imho...

Some sort of break from ennui/quiescence, whether 'hellacious' or just in general, yup. Pretty substantial regime changes typically do spawn. You can see a 'velocity flashing' passes through the entire medium from west to east over the period going from D4-5 ... The western ridge, eastern trough scaffolding is well underway during ... just sort of spontaneously emerges, and at the other side... that is beyond the temporal boundary of the pattern switch - I'm wondering if the non-linearity of making that progression is 'masking' or hiding any 'corrective' event of that nature out there... and that event could be this signal for the 18th. It's been there in the GEFs for days ... The 00z GFS missed a mega subsume bomb because it bullied in a Pac wave at 180 to 192 hours...Otherwise, the ridge in the west would have have completed the R-wave mechanics and driven that SPV S to meet up with that S/Stream ... and well - boom. It's a volatile time between D6 and 11 or 12 ...so I don't buy it that we should "punt" through D10... It depends what people are punting I suppose.

Nope

GFS looks interesting at 192 years ...

Lol right ... it’s called 40 F afternoons under a slowly creeping higher sun

Fast flow actually favors of modestly amplified West Ridge by curvature so amplified Ridge could be expressed in the velocity momentum in other words a longitudinal Ridge in which case he be right but he doesn’t specify that - When someone says western North American ridge Ridge Ridge Ridge people tend to dress her out in their mind like some tall arcing sloped flow in Western Canada ... it’ll be interesting

Okay... reluctantly, I'll concede to "a signal" 17-18th ...around D9 and 10 coming from the GEFs... Most of the members, including this V16 as I'm sure the 'cinema goers' are well aware .. carry substantial trough through the east, some with embedded importance to varying degrees. It's probably about what we could expect in terms of focus/shapeliness of any feature at that range for two-fold. Here's my reluctance and the problem I have with determinism here ...and it transcends the usual D9 perfunctory doubt. That longer-lead is made indeterminably even worse because it is on the other side of a regime change threshold. I'm always quite leery of any siggy event on the other side of a 'pattern boundary' ... too many moving parts have to evade fractal mechanics and guidance can't really do that ... The whole of its dependence becomes very non-linear in the wave physical mechanics - ha! It's like you gotta apply the Schrodinger's equation to the field... My bet? prooobably something emerges on the guidance envelope ... materializing on the far side of said boundary ... but it could be a Para-G category III white 'cane, or... something of a pearled out stretch series... Said threshold is D5 + in guidance blends; you can see the speedy might of the Pacific fist punching across the CONUS and leads us into a parade pattern off the pacific. The questions abound of course.. Like, does the pattern D6-10 become more zonal with velocity and jet momentum carrying the amplitude expression? Or, is there more curvi-linear structures ... It tend to think the former is more likely due to velocity interfering with curved surfaces.. favoring longitude. Man, patience wears ... It would be nice if the flirtations with the 14th could actually wet ... or shall we say, 'whiten' appetites.

Agree with much of this.. LOL .but, the HC ain't gone ... The fact that the flow is speeding up is really more like a rebound and 'sort of' evinces that - or in the least is suggestive of so... Anyway, I have been wondering if maybe the regime changing back toward a faster velocity deal .. might herald in with a lead event, but it's almost comical watching this keep happening, where x-y-z run by a-b-c model creates one ( there it is!) but no sooner, ...spends the next two cycles cleverly concocting means to deconstruct it's own creation - ... As it stands right now, the lead-in to the faster regime is more consensus watered down to just being a cold front followed by 500 mb winds at Neptunian velocities ....

well... I'm asking those suffering withdraw symptoms to be objective lol. But, having that look is far better - imho - at this range, than this faux idealized -NAO voodoo we just limped through. This was a like a 80 year-old's boner pattern... torpidly excited. No trough deeper that 552 dm, and no heights greater than 572 or whatever is simple not enough gradient. We really did more than merely figuratively move the pattern from gradient surplus to a dearth therein, too much so to really energize a decent slow mover cash-in. Also didn't help that that NAO was weak sauce frankly. I don't think it was really that - ... I almost think it was just a result of the weird flow abandonment and pattern entropy. That region up there is a natural sort of latent heat dumping region ground for weak-field exhaust... and it was over modeled too. But, soon as the flow speeds up... washed off the board like a dry eraser swipe.

nah...too many height lines. The flow is too fast there. It may engender something there eastern OV to MA but it'll likely be haulin' ass and S of NS in 9 hours flat with that screaming balanced flow that represents the entire scope there. ... The red flag for that is that the environment immediately downstream of that trough only shows vague ridging rolling out ahead of it...

well, I may not be remembering that conversation exactly right then, either - very good! 2 for 2 lol Or, I am remembering the conversation right, but I didn't understand what you were really asking before .. there's that too - Whatever was said then versus now,... I don't know how the La Nina would be augmented or not by the HC expansion stuff... I am speculating both aspects there - it could just mute the whole works the same amount ( which is why I said No before ...I remember that - ) but, I cannot be certain. I admit we're hypothesizing here - I do agree that it superimposes over the HC in constructive way so ..mm, that's tough. My problem with the ENSO stuff is that it only forces through the realization of hemispheric seasonal gradient... It's just this simple ( arithmetic concept): If the HC pushes too far away from the NINAs and NINO ...they don't disperse as readily, because they are being cut off from the gradient - which ends up displaced N where the HC rim terminates into the westerlies. It's that simple - the ENSO gets cut off from the party be inclusion in the HC- Either way, I think we can agree that the aN erstwhile forced -AO cap over top, at least offers an interesting final chapter to winter.

We'll probably have to field at least once historic hyper bomb in the models - It seems hard to run a depressed AO against a tapestry of HC shit ...and the la-Nina gradient patterns, without extraordinary potential always in reach. You don't like to put the gas can next to the window pain, at the back of the garage, when there books of half used matches collecting dust near by... It'll be a fast mover... fetus circulation near Atlanta Georgia gets confused with a Miller B clipper from cryo hell sporing a 57 v-max fisting over WV ... 947 mb low passing 20 M E of ACK - the first time ever an extra-tropical ISE ever did at that particular lat/lon.... Probably the last thing that happens before mid to late February green -up lol... The two phase - Alas, that's on D9 in the Euro... so ... it has sooo much physical numerical instability in the guidance that it actually lasts into the next day of runs ...tho slightly less in form... 955 .. Then, the GFS-Parapellegic throws the bone... but mysterially, it all loses out to a just a -10 at 850 mb cold whack when it's D6 and Ray's reminding us all how Baseball pitchers and catchers report, while Scott thinks we don't suspect him smoldering in his protracted form of a meltdown while he floats tactically hard to prove troll efforts ... Then, it all comes screaming back at 72 hours out...but it's a more "sensible" 963 mb bomb ...but notice it's still historic... and it's even slower a little, because as we near, the compensating physics of deep z-coordinate lows ( for some reason ) slowing against the flow, is seen more readily by nearer termed modeling solutions. ... End result... dust fins around tree trunks at DC with 40" from TTN to PWM .... Everything I just characterized I plagiarized from Jame's scary book without even reading it - I'm pretty sure.... No, but I do in all seriousness get the feeling that we check into some volatility realization out there.

Yeah... I guess that's what it was, Ray - right... Which I don't disagree.. It's like superposition of factors ( telecon convergence in a sense? though not exactly the same - ) and as folks probably know who've suffered by my diatribes with endurance and grace ...I am a big fan of synergistic concepts. Having La Nina circulation on top of a HC expansion... is a huge constructive interference scheme at a global scale - Heh.. I also want to point out a discussion you and I had back ...jeez I guess it was August? You were asking me over the main forum ENSO thread if the same muting happens with the La Nina...I remember telling you I wasn't sure...Because of what Will was intimating, frankly. It would be really hard to separate the two because they sort of mimic one another... The HC would have higher concomitant easterly trade as mass loading/balancing for enhanced westerlies over top... well., what does that sound like - Not sure how to parse those two factors apart. I think the path of least resistance there is to just go with them as tag teaming.... That's why if you are a snow lover/cold/winter enthusiast...and you have looked on this SSW with mockery and ridicule, you may wan't to don in shit-eating bib and shut the f up because ...heh, you're gonna need it ..So, what I mean is ... the La Nina climo may be a part of Feb but sort of nested in the maelstrom of an already busy hemisphere... so what's the difference. The difference "might" be... forcing of the PV circulation eddy into mid latitudes. Could be fun -

Hhheh... No - look, "IF" we can positively confirm the downwelling/propagation of the SSW, it will modulate the AO downward as historical reference hugely correlates. Regardless of whether that pays cold ( and eventual snow...blah blah ) dividends over on our side of the hemisphere, notwithstanding - it will likely mean a neutralized(ing) or negative AO in general. That product would need to be integrating those top down effects, which won't begin to take place for another 7 to 10 days. That's when the tongue of the warming layers flicks and mixes into the polar tropopause...and only then does the PV begin to reel - if it does. I have two problems with that product/EPS as he's twitted: 1 ... because of everything I said above, I doubt the EPS' physical parameterization and daily runs are even aware or getting any of that future into the equations ... We're looking at a model brain that is unaware of these outside --> arriving future augmentor(s). 2 ... even without the SSW and AO link stuff... I'm not even certain the La Nina February climo succeeds. I don't wanna get into a whole Hadley Cell expose' again.. but I like the way Will paraphrased it the other night when he said to me, '.. whether we consider you HC muting the ENSO stance or not, it still isn't a good thing to have La Nina ...' ... The last major ENSO events.. also demoed less registry around the World's known climate pathways where it is known to cause havoc. The muting of the ENSO effect ...does not mean the ENSO isn't happening. I wonder if folks have trouble disconnecting those two... The La Nina could rage on ...and the AO could do what it did this lasts month anyway. I wonder if those EPS are weighted somehow in deference -

Yeah.. no... feb 8 is the 40N end of perennial solar nadir... From that point until ..I think May 8 it's transition, then of course May 8 to Aug 8 is solar max. That's why I am particularly arnery when April is stolen by cold mirk.. I mean, you're like a month from max sun and it's 38F sure... go for it. Cloudy with NE drifting boney cryo fingers from that c-note bitch up N - finally! arriving - the -NAO . ... seems to routinely bend over our springs in recent years. I swear, if I had my financial druthers I'd own a 2nd home in western California ( sans the Pandemic...) and hope for Geological events for entertainment ...say, March 24th through May 8th - and May is negotiable as that month can sometimes blow donkey dong too... Last year was absolutely horrific frankly. I saw 2 snow flurry afternoons and a synoptic slush event ... I mean... three times? That transcends mere fluke. Anyway, I won't start trolling winter geese until Feb 8th or so... that's when Kevin and Scotts bums start heating up in parked cars more officially...

It is spectacular ... It has the non-acclimation of 'fake warmth' feel to it. Still nice. No wind. Also, even tho it's only been what ... 3 weeks since the Solstice the sun ever so slightly already feels warmer in open sky beaming like today. I would run 6 miles outside but alas...f'ed up my calf muscle a couple weeks ago and I've been doing gym machine stuff instead. Such drag getting old -

Polar lows are a marine mesoscale phenomenon - though certainly it's plausible that one could 'drift' landward. I've seen one on lake Ontario actually. I'm not certain they can't formulate over land, but they do need to have that certain sounding set up - i.e., very cold air/CAA passing over open heat source/interfacing and the sounding is very unstable. What I posted ...it's not abundantly clear that's what those are, but they sure fit the physical description < 1000 km diameter with very tightly nucleated pressure wells... CAA with lingering DPVA in cyclonic trajectory, "behind" the primary polar baroclinic passage/sfc trough. They are smaller in scale - hence "meso beta-scale" - which is denoted with Meso B in lit I believe.. but are really meso scale systems. Those in that image meet the criteria .. Jim's deal was regular synoptic cyclone ...but as Scott/or whom else may have mentioned, it was plumbed through syrup blue - which is kind of a weird actually. I had read of thundersnow ...comes from different mechanisms.... Lake Squalls can do that... But TROWALs and CSI ...so forth. But usually they freezing WB is somewhere involved so that you have phase change nuclie and charge differentiation ...blah blah... It's like the top 1/2 of a CB tower lowered down. But Jim's storm ...I thought that one was pretty cold ... interesting

Hey Will ... I bet if we could do some sort of discriminative phase analysis of that 366 hour, 12z operational GFS ...those to meso-beta scaled cyclones ( one near Boston Light, the other SW of NS) might actually bear resemblance of "Arctic lows" - or polar lows ... two of them no less! That's gotta be what those are considering the total synoptic parameterization leading/during... That's amazing if bears out because I don't know if I've ever seen a global numerical guidance source actually depict that phenomenon - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/2/bams-d-18-0103.1.xml WHAT IS A POLAR LOW? A definition of a polar low was given by the European Polar Low Working Group in 1994 (see Heinemann and Claud 1997): the term “polar mesoscale cyclone” (polar mesocyclone) is the generic term for all meso-α- and meso-β-scale cyclonic vortices poleward of the main polar front (horizontal scale of 20–2,000 km). The term “polar low” should be used for intense maritime mesocyclones with scales up to about 1,000 km with a near-surface wind speed exceeding 15 m s–1.

Lol, ...kinda like how I feel about cloudy and still calm stagnant 39 F Aprils -

Damn - .. I don't think we got the teleconnectors updated overnight. They're late this morning still, and PSU E-wall didn't update the individual members, either. Too bad, because the operational GFS, Euro and to perhaps 20 or so % lesser extend, the operational GGEM ...all indicate a rather robust regime change after D6 ... That D6 system is still in the works but it's like 40 to 50% chance ( the way leading indicators/modeling situates as of now mind you..), for a low end climo coastal. The bigger deal may evolve toward the Ides of the month, in association with said regime change. But I'd like to see the weight of the tele's behind that. For what it's worth the EPS mean clearly reflects at least some Continental troughing with modest negative anomalies situated D8-9-10 of the 00z cycle - that's probably construed as a enthusiastic headnod in favor. So.. the regime in question is an apparent +PNA or 'westerly-biased' +PNA ... some varient there in. But the PNAP does get into a mid latitude western N/A ridge. The EPO is not really showing signs of modulating negative in these same runs, however. That makes sense, as those leading mass field drivers are not really in line - those being ...a caving WPO transmitting through the NP ... be nice if there was west Pac typhoon to help but...the +WPO look out there appears hemispherically anchored ... not sure we're going to see a change there -