Typhoon Tip

24009985220 -3701 191408 55071105 30000742621 -2603 172703 59141308 36000762445 01501 171911 59171310 Most probably don't know wtf these numbers mean... but I love them nonetheless. The NAM model is probably not going to be around forever and with the direction of the tech ambit and so forth... it's trivially a waste of time to learn how to decode FOUS at this point - ha, man... When I was in college back when dinosaurs roamed ... if you were good at doing so and could visualize between neighboring FOUS sites ( ALB/LGA...ETC..) ...you really didn't need any of these graphical cinemas that we use for for entertainment than analytics these days .. Anyway...they are from the 12z NAM's FOUS grid for Logan ... The first bold is 24 hours from 8am just this morning - so 8am Thurs. The next, '09', mean 0.09 QPF... so that implies up to that point in time, light rain. The next is the wind about middle boundary layer, add a 0 by conventional usage yields 140 degrees ( SE/SSE). The next are temperatures are 980, 900 and 800 mb respectively... and still an inversion between the 980 mb and 900 mb ( 11C at 900 mb is pretty toasty for late March!), while it is only +7 below... That is a classic pre-warm frontal environment, 900 at 11 ...the boundary is nearby. Probably CT is already busted into warm sector there. The next row... bold, are the RH at 700 and 500 mb respectively. 50 to 70% is considered "partly cloud" by old school convention... SO, modulate accordingly.. These are showing/suggesting over eastern Mass, the sky is open and clear. That 74 (unbold) is because it is muggy actually.. .and that lower number can either mean low clouds or elevated DP - in this case..it's may be some of both..but I probably leans clear with blue tinted hills in a muggy appeal. The next bold, "27" ... again that is the wind having veered around the west in the middle boundary layer. Where available ... I suspect MOS busts too cool given that look. All that progression above is what it looks like with a strong warm front goes through.

I realize the snark .. but, I still wonder if the April is that bad this year ... I originally surmised a few weeks ago, the plausibility of a La Nina and/or HC in combination, might eventually take over where the AO relaxes... serving up a warmer spring tendency. Unsure if it is for those reasons but regardless, this week is a good head start toward that statistical outcome. We'll see... Also, just looking at the Hemisphere from orbit: there are plenty of identifiable R-wave structures to gage the flow; that means the correlations are alive and well. I heard folks tossing the telecon breakdown out there... you're right in a vacuum but I'm not sure it is applicable to the here and now just yet. I mean yeah, at some point more nebular structures/'noise' will make negative and positive NAOs or PNAs less usefully telling... I don't believe the status of the hemisphere and the modeling out in time really represents we are in that state anytime soon. By the way, ...don't be shocked if the -NAO out there in the EPS and GEFs ... corrects more neutral. I'm only mentioning because of trends since the AO recovery began last month. These extended ranged polarward indexes have been sagging their curves out there, only to lift them up when D10-14 gets nearer in time. Just sayn' The 00z Euro - as we discussed - now more progressive and not as mechanically foreboding with that D6/7 system. It's a predictable correction scheme with that tool. Any modestly +PNAP structure with a S/W up in Manitoba on D9 and look out!

NAM looks mild to warm in the grid on Thursday busting out ... which probably means warm at the surface. And given the synoptics that may actually be the first humid day… Although not unbearably so of course

Jeez the GFS has oscillations 30 to 80 Seems like that’s been happening a lot in recent late winters and springs - bud killer seesawing

Keep in mind ... the water has a z-coordinate in the Lakes vitality. That is mere surface in that link, and has less corrective impact on the former - apples and oranges. The thermalcline of the water is what is alarming, in that the mid strata is staying elevated through winters, which gives the entire body thermal momentum to achieve those types of departures in summers... All of which an ice cover in a smaller mass than is normal, spanning an intraseasonal amount of time unfortunately is within normal small scale variances, that does not offset the implication of the three decades in water data monitoring/science, ongoing and involved at that GLERL division of NOAA; 2013 - 2016 featured winters with anomalous cold downward 'spikes' in along a multidecadal trend that is still unfortunately rising at an alarming rate -

mm... I have my faults as a contributor on this social media-sphere like everyone, ... I'm not sure overloading superlatives is one of them ...

certainly is redic out there today. 70 is my nick high and 68 is my base max ... for a couple of hours while immersed in post equinox sun and very light wind.

For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives ! jesus H. christ - ...you're not being taken seriously friend. Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above. All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway"

yeah ... I still say there's too much amplitude/ zealous correction applied between the upper MW on D4 ...to what the Euro carries along D5 over the southern Lakes... Which then means it ends up with -3 SD along the S. coast of SNE - Which in itself is not unusual, but having that suspicious relay at mid range west of there .. It is a noted thing the Euro does around that temporal seam - roid rage. Also, the heights over the SE U.S. don't typically register that high when that sort of depth is issued at 40 N ... Red flags... I suggest modulating that toward an NJ model low and narrowing the corridor of impact - if there is any.. It is noted that the GFS just wants that as cold fropa - but..the GFS has an N/Stream speed bias too so ... basically, two forms of error bias vying for believability - lol

CNN takes 'Trumpism' incindiary rhetoric to degrees of immortality that Trump himself would be jealous of... with their headlining tactical fear mongering, and turn of phraseology ... but, this is still alarming without their assisting in one doomscrolling their web source for profit... The GL eco systems is on the verge because of this. There are a lot of aquatic species that need ice in their spawning cycle .. and it is complex. Like Whitefish, need shallows to ice over so their eggs are protected, ..then when the water warms in spring there is a normal algal bloom that the fish feed on... but if the water is outside of a range ( to warm in this case..), the algae doesn't bloom... and that particular chain of dependent biota collapses... This sort of pyramidal relationship is just one in a huge life web of the lakes ecology that is on the verge... Oh, and yeah - it is climate change proven

... mm hm, just say 'anything outdoors' I'd also add, 'biting' to that list - not only does it rhyme ( lol...) there's nothing more soothing when you are already irritated to the brink by 90/75 and it is THEN that the giant f'n horse fly knows to tunnel the back of your neck for oil -

I don't do dews too well ... I like following summer synoptic meteorology ... monitoring heat wave genesis this ... and albeit rarefied, convection that, when set up luck prevails ...etc. I enjoy the heat to a point, if it is dry-ish. I think of 86 with a decent breeze rustling the trees and swaying branches, with a DP of 52 ... utopia. Add DP to that? turns to hell on Earth very fast ... very small wiggle room ... Say 54 ... I think o 56 DP at any temperature above 85 as pushing it - almost no room for margin and it's sack sticker annoying.

Yeah, this was a razor cold layer/decoupling ...based - no doubt - on the lay into the overnight with such low DPs... Because the FOUS grid had T1s at ALB-LGA-BOS all like +5 overnight...so... not sure what MOS actually had, but that +5 is the synoptic low and we obviously went lower than 40 for a low. No real warmth in the guidance overnight until the end of April - Not sure I buy that, even removing the hyperbole. I don't believe that Euro solution will be very successful, given to what it has to work with up there in the flow ... circa D4/5 ... it is clearly taking an "impression" - more so - of a trough mechanics up there, and you can see it flipping D7 onward, it just all the sudden cores out this massive depth from 'not enough' kinematic insert from that D4/5 sourcing. So a little complex ...but in short ( and I know you didn't ask - just in general ...), it is unclear where the Euro get the power to to do that. I suspect it is the Euro's correction scheme at that range - their model does not make the application of the correction application very seamless - tends to 'flash' in... overly conserves what ever it is handling around D5 ..and gives it a mechanical boost. I was clicking through that and thinking, it's going to do it again and yup... historic low from a phantom dent in Alberta - The other aspect which is - I admit - a personal fan favorite is the "MIami Rule" ..there is a 590 dm height ridge spanning the skies of the Gulf to southern GA/Florida and the SW Atlantic Basin, on D4 ...and the Euro digs that out of nowhere trough power, into it... without demoing any shearing from compression and velocity that would certainly have to happen if the heights attempted to lower over top of that heat wall... I think there is going to be a wave there... but.. perhaps a NJ model reduction would be a decent compromise... I don't buy the juggernaut for all those reasons intimated above.

Not very lol but the stagnating the warm front with no apparent fluid viscosity reason to stop it yet still stalling to warm front is annoying anytime of the year ... that is, for those of us who want spring and melting snow Pretty sure we are in the minority on that one Also it really is just Wednesday… That look probably bust Thursday out of pre frontal shits either way

Good point

… On a Southwest flow at all levels too. It’s always been one of my biggest mysteries about New England it just has warm frontal repellent ... It’s just hard to figure out what the resistance is there

It basically takes 30 hours to get a warm front through here

Better enjoy tomorrow… If the Nam’s right

This almost looks like the climate change footprint tho - like...in the absence of a very convincing forcing, .. the footprint is 30 years plus trend = 1 and change above normal ... The PWAT follows the warmer atmosphere on the right..

1888 was a hugely spring assisted event... I've heard some 'reconstructed'/reanalysis type debates on that, that it was a typical "weak" spring cut-off, that happened to get a fluke anomaly from the polar stream dumped into... It does sort of make sense ... the layout had that weird "apparent" N-S oriented front, as though the previous day's boundary was yanked back west as the -theoretical - polar loading over PA dumped in and veered the flow around aloft. It was rotted polar air type snow at Worcester, while it was back N at 50mph in talcum powder down the Housatonic - Places in lower Manhattan had icicles going sideways off of objects, owing to the "Mammoth freeze" type rates of the setting... Something like 40 F lashing rains to 19 F choke snow inside of an hour might be extraordinarily rare say - ... But that NW CT to Capital District snow totaling actually was powder on the west side of said N-S running boundary, so 1888 definitely had a cold/ ratio assist in that heavier zone.. I definitely agree there is some sort of asymptotic aspect ( 'asymmetric' positive returns) ...as we near the upper PWAT storage/dynamics of events. They "need" more cold to realize, and as it nears the threshold where that is requiring a polar direct assist, creates a kind of catch-22... That means we induce more gradient to the systems surroundings and that starts moving things along. At which point there is a reduction in positive returns. But you this .. there's no like 'curbs' in free space and air... it's just matter of return rates... Like, it maybe take 10,000 or whatever years to get that coveted 5.5" liquid to be all snow at 11:1 ...then also get the 12" of 20:1 frosting ... LOL

Right ...come hell or high water ... something will make sure we packing pellet a trace from an overzealous virga exploded cumulus cloud over Logan on May 2nd no less - call it the, "Great Just Because Someone Made The Impertinent Suggestion That It Won't Snow For 8.5 Months" storm -

I had a buddy that toured the station back in '95 I think it was, and he told me that when he walked into the studio and Mark wheeled around in his chair, he had that look, but was wearing Hawaiian patterned shorts, and the 'cast was waste up - and while they were there...he did the report like that. And his demeanor was otherwise like a burn-out ... 'Yo dudes, wuz up' lol I could see that with that mullet look. Thing I remember about that storm ...among many aspect, is that while it was happening ...knowing that Wed had that temp recovery look to it. That was up in my UML weather lab days... I think it nudged 60 the end of the week. It was like a cocoon storm - hiding from the inevitability of spring inside a transient winter fantasy... I mean by then my gears are switched normally? And I prefer not - but I will play the hypocrisy card if the situation warrants and that one more than did, and so once inside the bubble ... knowing how short lived that would be kind of tainted that. But, like we've said...those diabatically assisted spring deals... I don't think you can get that in DJF? Just like we've often mused 'what might have been,' of that 1992 December legend ... I don't think Brockton Mass can get 5.5" of rain and then a foot of snow and have that been ALL snow - I dunno... If it did, that would have been 50" to 60" at/of 10::1 ... I wonder if they'd still be without power. No sea level storm has ever done that and I wonder if colder profiles - it makes some physical sense to think that cold holds less water so ... you may not geophysically be able to do it.

Lol... yeah, just title the thread, ...while we're at it

I really don't wish to be all that engaged in any drought discussion ... However, just as an observation and experience: I feel the next 3 ...maybe 4 weeks will be key in setting us up the rest of the way this summer - unless we do like a June 1998 thing.. The total soil moisture and longer term moisture deficits states are crucial to seasonal resilience. When there is an abundance of arlier/warmer spring conditions , sans "April showers" normal, that climate leads to top layer issues accelerating ... pretty fast as early as late May per my own experience. April rain is more than an affectation... Sometimes this happens with earlier warmth prior to continental green up - green up adds atmospheric moisture, clouds and thunder follow were moisture is present. Pretty easy arithmetic there... But when desiccation abounds prior to green up, this has a nasty negative feed-back on soil moisture ...setting the gears toward a beige lawn by the 4th of the July, as well as crop/gardening problems.. But this is no reasons to play volleyball with U.S. DS charts all summer long either.. Obviously, 70/ 25 dp ...sucks water out of anything - including the earth... This can happen prior to reservoir depletion, which res level reduction doesn't kick in - in my own experience - until August, provided the previous year was sufficiently wet to get them at capacity prior to the onset of the warm spring in question. Basically ...there is a lot of lag facets to this hydro shit. We don't have a warm spring .... yet. What we have is the expectation of one, with perhaps 2 days and counting - if we negate the lows last night and priors... These diurnal averaging policies do a warm pattern a disservice at this time of year. But, it can be warm, we just need the anti-stein events to punctuate over the course of these 3 or 4 weeks