Typhoon Tip

Man if that all just got a little bit deeper quicker and verified we’d have one of those 4 to 6 hour dim orbing of the street lamps … And then 24 hours later we get poofed by a Windex series of squalls… And then it’s 70° next Friday heh .. negotiable

You gotta be f’ing kidding me

Very strange mechanical transfer… What we’re looking at there is a Miller B ... just doing it at a very strange orientation; the primary’s up in West/Northwest Ontario as opposed to PA/NY climo ...and the secondary develops on the Del M ...strange mechanical transfer that really bombs going by Boston That snow you’re seeing there is a CCBA comma with frontogen

I actually think that trough early next week being far more mechanically/really part of the whole hemispheric gearing ...that’s the actual Archibald amplitude/signal because it’s multi mass field related .. And we see by weeks end at least transiently there’s an entire mode change in the pattern. I think there’s a pretty significant cold reload going on out there though the deeper range still as earlier talked about Anyway there’s a limit to how deep that’s going to be ...agree with everybody that there’s probably gonna be some hook back there in the maine mountains and definitely upslope but I would also watch that secondary jet street coming down the NW flow early Tuesday that sucker may pulse some nasty Windex thru the area pretty potent

12z Euro is a complete whiff ...

Consistent with Will's radar advice ... it's actually snowing pretty good here in this trailing deform band ... looks like 1/2 to 2/3rds MI vis with uniform small-mid sized aggies... And < 0 C ! ...I'm f'n amazed by that on Oct 30

Yeah... I was actually visualizing this as caking the N facing trees and power poles with a white frosting, and having grass blades still sticking through ... while glops fall off of side-mirrors from car doors ...maybe a slush rut or two upon streets mainly just wet... But this ? It's an overproduction/cold success over what I was anticipating to be completely honest. I mean, remove the vestigial Oak and late Silver Maple leafs and that setting out there is really indistinguishable from a clock-puncher January ordeal ... wtf chuck - 31; -S; 3.25"

I'm astounded frankly... This exceeds 2011 in the 2-meter T SD just existentially - but by all means ... if anyone wants to compare discretely - The wind blows here ..I have cob-webbing prior to Halloween !! ?? There was never blowing snow in 2011 at my place here in Ayer - tho granted, that event exceeds this one in accumulation by about 2.5 X's so far... I ended up 9.5" back then and a slew of down tree limbs and powerlines on top.. That snow was deposed in 33 -ish tacking .. This is different - But uh ...yeah, it is specifically the scale/degree of cold and that we are fracturing snow into eave curling blow off ... that is just absolutely the first time I have ever seen that observation in my life - no exaggeration, before Novie 1 WOW

I still suspect the spike in the AO is over done in the GEFs derivatives ... I could visualize that rounding the arc off and then descending down - and we note the remarkably concerted agreement toward the 2nd week of November. The -AO is formulaic ... and jives longer term statistically against an underpinning MJO signal: NOTE, the EPS mean is decent agreement ... I have not seen the most recent Euro values...but there is at least some - albeit weak .. - corroboration coming from the GFS side... The only problem is, will any ensuing MJO signal garner strength enough to transmit its signal into the westerlies.. When the MJO matures to coherency on the left side of the above diagram, this promotes mid latitude cyclogenesis ... That enhances the wind fluxing from the E at ~60 N, and that's an indirect .. if not driver, in causing the AO to descend in the calculation/EOFs ... Whether there is actually concomitant blocking noted at higher latitudes or not, the enhancing cyclogenesis at mid latitudes --> driving the lower Ferrel latitude easterly jets does show up in the EOF calculations as a downward AO modulation. So in short, it is not clear if high latitude blocking is apparent using these teleconnector/techniques, or, ...is it a favorably MJO giving rise to some increase cyclogenic parameterization/modeling out there in the distance that is "pulling" the AO down by virtue of enhancing easterly flow? The answer - what difference does it make... It's still a cold signal for 45 N ... and, seeing as we are in a era where we fold over the western continental hypsometric response to what is increasingly evidenced as a CC-related, ambient Pacific jet velocities raging in perpetuity ..., that tells me that after next week's rebound, we probably do something like now ..again, and it may be more potent on the next sequence. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we match the current SD in the other direction for a couple days over the apex of this warm up, too

Well ...this certainly vindicates the effort in early recognition/anticipation .. I mean, I argue that just being proximal to a rationally conceptual pattern for discussion, was all along ... , justification, but seeing this out of doors really does help underscore/substantiate - it seems to make it that much more worth it.

Derailed thread alert ... but ..what is your diet and age ? Not to be too personal, but I have personal experience with that condition and have studied/learned ...and modulated my lifestyle around avoiding it, successfully.. ..and pretty much have eliminated it altogether. I may sometimes get something suspicious..but it never lasts longer than a day ...day and half, and is nothing compared to when it hit and I'd be hobbled for 4 or 5 days, and is forgettable. I can tell you ... no smoking no alcohol 50% of daily caloric intake has to be from vegetable/organic sourcing therein... Red meat once per week, lean and organic - and start liking salmon/fish ... I ride 25 mile rides, or run 6 mile runs....every day. ..in fact, those on this board that no me as an ass-end of a dead rhino to look at probably would be a-taken back by how thin I am these days. My total cholesterol is way down ... and I haven't had any gout worthy of even mentioning in 3 years now, when prior to making these lifestyle changes...I was once every two or three weeks dealing with something... elbow, knee or foot... even thumb joints. Also, if you engage in an excessive work out regimen from a sedentary initial position, the sudden drop in weight can also trigger a gout response. You have to start easing off the bad calories first for a couple of weeks... No soda ...ad that to the list above big time! In fact, avoid high-fructose corn syrup like the plague ma-man. ... anyway, drop 10 then ease into work outs... The sudden weigh loss is your body liberating huge quantities of uric acid and other bio-toxins into your blood, and often...faster than renal function can adapt - uric numbers go up... boom - exercise induced arthritic attack. Once you lose...20 or 30 lbs and your body more fully adapts to working out regularly...you can even throw in a beer here and there, or a pizza ... live a little...and you'll be fine. But, that is sub-moderation and treats. Just sayn'

Yeah... I love supposition/'what-if' plausibilities.. Hey, it's the zygote of science, to speculate - otherwise...what's the point of livin' ha. But, I like to think hard and long and logically, to be at least thoughtful about doing so - not just throwing shit against the wall cause it sounds 'cool' - There is a precedence in weather phenomenon for constructive vs destructive wave interference - and this smacks as having bean pulling model guidance a bit ...

Maybe hypothesis ... but, it just seems there's some wave-space interference in the interim modeling/time cycles over the last couple days, possibly 'masking' the 2nd wave's potential - I mean it may in fact be true that it would have, in total, been even more without Zeta's interference - but without a physical reanalysis study it's hard to be certain.

hmm... the summits'll lighten up when it's 45 F rain beneath whenever... I'd feel better about this whole thing if there was cold air like ...anywhere to be found. Lol Talk about hiding in the virtual realm - everyone's all giddy and swept away in an event that presently can't happen - So I guess we trust in the models - heh. It'll be interesting to monitor if/when there is a kind of cold pulse that rattles through the area say ..9pm to 1am N to S... I wonder if we grind down .2 deg F per hour, then out of nowhere .. a subtle acceleration N sheds 6, ... 2... 2... across two hours to 37 and 'chutes.

The deep field vision's a white Thanks Giggedy - but...prior to that, we endulate ... could be fantastically so but we'll see on magnitude. The concerted membership of the GEFs out through the early 3rd week of November is striking in agreement. This also 'appears' to situate with an emerging MJO and a recurving series of modeled West Pac TCs - now that the latter is climatologically 'turning on' as a signal/induction - The west Pac is probably going to slip negative toward the 2nd week of November...and it's an emerging signal...so we may see negative flux in the EPO ensue 3-5 days later heading between the 15th and 20th... These things sometimes take a bit longer to set up, too - so subject to change. Before that, we bask in warmth - which has been on the charts for some time. I was wrong to think it would correct NW ( continental trajectory...), or at least would think I was wrong at this point...given to the multi-modal/multi-model sourcing indicating this side of the hemisphere isn't just +AO ...the PNAP is lapsing west so the westerlies are pulling out of the east ... Code for big ridge ...seeing the operational runs building that in agreement .. heh, bet goes down on a positive temperature departures for 3 to 5 days somewhere after 3rd or 4th - 12th or so.. Then think we may see 'real' winter arrive Early guess ...

Actually... we had an intense Nor' easter back in March...I want to say 2017, that was marginal but favored the buttbang verification - we were doubting ...or at least admittedly I was, that the GFS would be right about rain, because, it selling plain rain at 38F/31F while it was pouring 3" of QPF. It was like drawing us into the deception of the god-damn thing... I mean, you gotta figure it was completely corrupted with the wet-bulb/saturation and thus, temperature in the lower sounding and probably p-type therein... An insidiously easy correction was 33/33 with blue bomb, to 20" ... ... At least meet us half f'n way my god... Nothing.... Big rain drops at 38F/37.8F 99.99 % RH and yes...3" of QPF ... Oh, there may have been a cat paw or two... Now THAT is how ya tan a hide!

Mmm ...that's still too much time to maximize the buttsoring - It has to be one model out of the fray of optimism that is other black and white ... and having that one naysayer scoring the coup and raining out a 34.6 F CCB ... The other models are still snowing while that is happening too.. We call those "whaaaaa" storms - 6-12 hours of warning? Nah - that's giving the torture a way out. lol - I'm kidding here -

Ha... yeah, it would be a fitting irony if the robuster 2nd wave verified cold rain - ... everyone would be so deliciously happy -

In fairness... this could be overcompensating the other way ... perhaps too far ? Hard to say - probably need to now-cast. I do feel 'reasonably' confident that the paltry solutions of yesterday and prior ...were probably more so setback interruption compared to where this thing is destined. Keep in mind, 3" of cake at this time of year is a relative win - and the NAM is flat suggesting 6" over the western side of the CF... Chris ( Oceanwx ... is that his name? I can't recall... I thought once it was Eric but I don't f'gun know ) mentioned that the ensemble spread was pulling the percentage correction in favor of more .. when I read that I was pretty sold that we were dealing with this particular setup's "typical" mid range blackout - haha... or something analogous to it - thing is, we won't have to deal with "Zeta's" in this sort of solution over the ensuing winter ... And I think these sort of needle thread/speed stretched events may be common - Not saying we can't get a slow moving bomb...but any bomb is likely going to race orbital satellite velocities -

Okay... see, NAM inside of 36 hours and suddenly ( at least in so far as the FOUS grid goes...) it makes more sense both for differentiating the sigma levels out in time ( temp and QPF vs UVM), and butt-boning LGA at this time of year... BOS LGA 12075989840 12319 080319 55060201 12056967111 07606 000430 66070510 18042967841 06521 060423 53050000 18014977445 01612 040219 56060206 24027979338 08919 090225 44019798 24035979423 07516 060223 47020002 30034958917 00717 143618 35009595 30017917407 -1611 140115 37020097 I knew ..above all other reasons why ...that having LGA look snow-like in the previous FOUS grids ... meant the the system was in flux. Seeing LGA struggle to claim cat paws until that last interval ..that's a bit more consistent with a latitude/speed flow event... That hour 18 interval ... oh my. Regardless of any synoptic/interpretative graphic products and what not, using this old standard metric usually that is having isothermic parachuting going out around Waltham to Danvers, when it's 0 C just off the deck over Logan... That 04 ( 40 degree wind direction ) is square off the Harbor and is probably lighting up the Airport with marine contaminating llv warmth...But I suspect on the flop side of an inevitable Coastal-front in this sort of set up, there might be a startling burst of surprisingly heavy snow to those that have October climo in mind - which...is probably 92.43% of walking civility... Anyway, that's how these FOUS numbers layout ... but, there's conservative mutilations of these numbers that are almost insistent because of the calendar, understood. But, the Euro at 6 z and other higher res models...combining with the notion - I have confidence in ... - that the models are correcting for having ( probably ) evacuated too much moisture seaward, starving the 2nd wave's deep layer wave spacing, is now playing back into a more robust event.

oh god - ... don't bring gasoline to a match fight please... I know what you mean tho - it's wet urinal cake so a lower ratio may work with that particular product's arithmetic. I don't understand why a snow accumulation product can't do a sigma interval average based on ratios... It's seems like a simple series of interpretative algorithms to me.. This much snow growth deposition falling into x temperature --> 8::1 ... 10::1 ... 20::1 .... And if you have differential intervals and pesky warm(cool) layers, every time in the sounding the temperature variation occurs, calculate that interval... Function() exits doing one last calculation: total ration/N-intervals ... done. Probably ... 1,000 lines of Python. I could do it in f'n Oracle/DB syntax, and have a web-server XML read in the numbers for the graphics engine to go on and make its pretty maps. And you know...it might actually be useful -

Not to blow smoke at the assessment ... but, I did mention yesterday that the complex interaction between the diabatic thief in the night, Zeta ( kitchy ) may be playing havoc with the stream dynamics during mechanical phasing.... I think the whole Zeta thing ( frankly ) would have done this thing the better if the f'er just wasn't part of it... Or, fully sucked in...But this bi-pass thing I think was screwing up the models - owing also to the fact that the physics are probably stressed by the uber fast nature of the flow. It's a bit much - I don't know what point these models evolve technologically to handle exotic/or extreme situations but...it seems with 250 mb sigma level 200+ kt wind maxes trying to leave the planetary environment tangent to the curve ... pita-flop computing power may not be enough. We need infinite particular momentum determination at the plank scales - hahaha. No seriously, I think that the interaction between Zeta and the baroclinic wave space ..et al, is proving a challenge here - just a hunch. You can really see how Zeta is stretching the baroclinic field by the way it endures its PP and pulls along the warm front when looping the synoptic charts ... That's indicative of 'robbing' some diabatic aspect into the 2nd wave - which really is the planetary event through all this... not the 1st wave. *BUT* more specifically labling the error,... I think the models were not leaving enough H20 behind Zeta...and were processing ( perhaps ) too much evacuation of moisture from the column post Zeta's remnants leaving the MA... Now, ...perhaps they are seeing more left behind, and that crucially fuels the dynamics of the 2nd wave and viola! It's a nice tidy explanation...... Who's with me!!!

Hey do you actually live in Rockport ?

Whenever I read these sort of articles ... or even sooner, merely see topical at this point ... I cannot help but leap to the conclusion .. it's all academic really - the truth is... en masse humanity took the easy greedy road. yup - whether it was easier generations ago when the Industrial Revolution took place, or, immoral, ...it was some variation between either end that got us to this predicament of: ~ 1/2 of population aware of the doom, in a struggle against ... ~ 1/2 not aware/disrespectful of the science, continuing to be assholes, and thus accelerating said doom ~ some small remainder not in the ratio unguilty by disconnection from technological affairs and/or doing anything at all - but not enough - to stop it. Thermodynamics were never even scratched for what can be technologically evolved to manipulate those Natural laws of the Universe ...to benefit all, while not harm the ability for all to exist. Everything anyone has said after that fact is a deviation from that truth. If a booming force came down from the heavens and voiced that from this point forward, any other attempt to manipulate energy in or from the environment, other than what benefits both the individual and World, COMEBIND, will results in immediate loss of one testacle per self-concentric act - you'd be amazed how fast Humanity would halt all actions until such time as we remove greed and money and self satisfaction from any debate. Fact of the matter is, the slow moving 'invisible' specter of the the doom wave is enabling the denial of truth. Nothing else ... period. But, sometimes my realism gets a bit extreme - lol. It's true though ... It's possible to turn the lights on over humanity with 0 pollution - yes it is... It is not mathematically impossible to simplify the equation of existence to where success in doing so does/acts/achieves a 'symbiosis' with one's environment. We don't. ... we don't. Anything else, is a perversion based on immorality at one end, and short-sightedness do to traditionalism at the other... All of it - end of discussion. Even the seemingly virtuous act of saying, 'can we at last engage in a discussion' - is belaying and evasive. Because there is nothing else to discuss. This is incontrovertible - Sometimes there really is a right, and there is a wrong. There is no gray area in consuming .. torpedoing one's ability to survive - that's it. But Humanity's long storied, tragic history, proves that it takes death in throngs to get people to get along - ...this will be no different.

Looked to me like the GFS 06z was more robust than any of the last several cycle of that particular model I've seen, wrt QPF resurging across a broader expanse of the Capital District up to at least CNE and over the middle coastal Maine down to SNE with that 2nd wave. Tho it was more robust ..it also has less 'blue' painted on graphics relative to increasing fall-rates - which heavier should be more in a marginality than this... I'm not in the mood go comb obsessively through sigma levels to prove the model's just permuting itself too warm or not, but I have seen that in the past, frankly. Just knee jerk based on experience and having woken up on the wrong side of the bed ... I can cynically introduce that climate comes back to haunt sometimes. And a given event some how, some way... proves it was critically SD overdone. It's not like this thing is so deep and cold that it has room to f! around ... What if the 2nd wave does burgeon a new expanding shield but lower than 800' it's cold rain/paws with 'real' snow at 1100+ It wouldn't be the first time models were crucially off by a seemingly irrelevant .5 C