Typhoon Tip

Ah could also just be pattern change typology - These large mass-field modalities seldom are handled with eclat by the guidance ...and particularly that would seem true - intuitively - in an era of unrelenting, multi-seasonal hemispheric permanent wind flux anomalies. With a concerted rise in the PNA ..ranging ~ -.75 to +.5 ... roughly a 1 SD, through the end of week two, with an equally concerted by vastly larger amplitude shift in the AO ... while the MJO is improving through Phase 8-1-2 ... To mention, the subtle trends of the operational runs ... These observations do not connote we are heading into a paradigm that really very remotely resembles where we've been over the first couple of weeks of this month. But...back to point: getting there from there, seems to always require sending us through all kinds phantom wave- fractals giving rise to systemic modeling migraines during the here and nows. The Euro's notion .. hm, I was afraid of something like that when that 12z solution yesterday ejected a mid/S stream system through a split flow under that SPV fragment dangling N of Lake Superior as it had at the time. So ... on this cycle, yup - it goes ahead and tries to latch onto said fragment and drive it into said mid/S stream...so prodigiously as a matter of fact the height compression completely distroys the southern stream S/W identity in lieu of dry historic short term cold wave ( suggested ) along the usual continental conveyor ( NP-Lakes ...NE ..yadda yadda ) boooorrrrinnnnng... But, can't say that's not likely any more than it is ... "IF" the pattern does head that way - which I think it is ... Anyway, couple years ago we were 9 F at 1pm on Thanks Giggedy from something similar to that ... We don't have to cleave back far in the annuls at all to shut up the doubters over whether a look like that can happen - oh...they'll still claim Trump did great things though... F brain-washed zombie cow-tied nimrods - it's like arguing with the Black Night in Monty/Python with these vacated brain-boxes - yeah...there's a conspiracy to make Trump lose the election alright - it's called ... wait for it - THE F'N ELECTION ... yes...that's right ...all people got together and "conspired" through the vast entangled pathos and ethotic labyrinth of societal interconnectivity ...and arrived upon the clear and decisive, motivating conclusion that it is time for the biggest mistake in history to move over, because that same systemic process/consensus ... hates and despises you - Sorry for the tongue in cheek satirization of current events... anyway, ...I still think there's an important system possible in that time frame... circa D9 through 15 ... It's unclear if there's a singular entity to focus on ...or just an era to ponder/perhaps buckshot. Typically .. even in cases with modest PNA rises from late autumn into winter ... a concerted modality among the various camps and ensemble means therein - which I believe we are seeing? - statistically favors an indirect if not direct "Archembaultian" adjustment event ... It helps for winter enthusiasts that said event, if so ... , would transpire going from a warm regime into a cool one.

God I hate D10's !!! ugh - that's a be-a-u-tiful hemisphere on that day .... which for pure probability/statistical inference means that what is likely to occur is not that same look when said look becomes D 1 - ... ( so ur tellin' me there's a chance ..) I hope we don't do this all winter with these perfect set ups out there -

That D10 flat out extrapolates into a winter storm for the Upper OV --> NE arc... . no question. In fact, if taken verbatim that 500mb evolution lead-up and in situ layout on D10 itself ... that would forbade any cyclonic movement west of 75 longitude as very difficult to physically pull off ... Nope.... any cyclone primary gets that far N ( say BUF) and you're Miller B'ing your way out of that mess.. That's just what that set up means - sorry. Whether that happens.... ? Duh - just saying "verbatim" But, the American cluster ( as I advertised earlier) is crashing pretty hard in that time range so ... I'm a fan of cross guidance hand-shakes - ...just have to see if this is worth of an applause

word! I had just edited that post to that inclusion -

Furthering Will's point along with that 'roller-coastering' aspect ...we're probably at a premium with deterministic skill right now - which is to say... highly valued do to not having much -lol.. The 00z Euro seemed to be an entertaining extrapolation on that whole-scale flip it did earlier in the day (12z...) but this run seems to try and ease off that complexion and go back more zonal this time next week...which brings some more seasonal balm into the region. But we're likely to get these kind of alternations over cycle clusters until D4 < in this sort of transitory deal - you know this shit jus sayn' ... But, notice the hUgeMANgous temperature variations either side of the D7 layout from say S/SE Manitoba to Day/OH ... I mean, that period of time is sort of ripe for an ice storm and the 00z Euro was really setting one up ( frankly...); who'd bother to comment on an ice storm on a D10 chart tho, right - Anyway, big continental temperature variances so your 'home grown' idea there ... Also, adding to that, these blocking nodes popping off may be weak, but we are seeing cold loading into at least 55N in Canada ... -20 C has been growing in the 850 layout/synoptic depictions across recent runs at least down to that latitude... It's likely that anyone doing a late Golf outing in just a light pull-over along 45 N doesn't realize how close to peril their balmy day really is ... EDIT: actually right after D7 that's getting rather blue anyway -

You're under a 540 dm thickness column in a saturated/near saturated with weak negative stability - deal with it

The Industrial Revolution

Clarifying ... what I mean is that I feel there is a reasonable chance for substantive winter-line storminess between now and 'Giving - I'm in a seminar at work - ugh...droning... The entire GEFs mass-field/teleconnector complexion has returned to that original idea from 10 or two weeks ago ...whereby the latter half of November would receded after the warm hiatus? If anyone recalls - dig it up -...it seems presently apropos again. Scott Will ...whomever may have their own reliance packaging and so forth, but from what I am looking at ... it could clip to a colder profile tendency for events just as fast as it did prior to the Halloween snow with 70 and two days later we're under an advisory and verifying ... this time around, there is even more cold air to work with too - the cute scales are ruining major Met reputations unfortunately -

We're having winter by thanks giving

I think we have a better chance than slight for snow next week - how much so ..? But I suspect it's not as low as all that. it's just that said chance is not painted by any models, either - ha! Not helping my case...no. It's what imho I think is in the "likeliness" envelope of that time frame... Seeing a bulge, ...albeit subtle ( I get it ), in the PNA guidance. The GEFs are very concerted tho, and this aligns with the antecedent ...albeit low end materialization of a phased 8-1-2 MJO migration. Here's a mind-bender ... if the HC expansion shit wasn't in play ( at all times in the fluid construct of the global scale), we'd see a strong wave mechanical presence emerging in the observation net - but this is like a strong wave being ( I "think" ) masked/muted/hidden/concealed ...whatever adjective best suits, but the smothering effect of the expansion stuff is suppressing a better detection. I think/suspect that what is being modulated out of both the Euro and GEFs clusters ( reasonably agreeing) shows enough presentation there to suggest a forcing... A flat-like +PNA with 50/50 chance at a pulsed -EPO loading are within the framework of results. The flow being fast over all helps that overall thinking; the more momentum ... it is "easier" for the models to map that out in time ...so it's not like the same scenario where we have subtle teleconnector modalities in a nebular flow that has more entropy guiding uncertainty... It's more like looking at the girders in the scaffolding as iron-clad because the bigger momentum has more weight -

this ought poke some hornet nests... How 'bout Deutsche Bank's proposed 5% "work from home" tax to be levied against those who ...wait for it - work from home Ha ha... It's great ... Pandemic forces this state of affairs, then ... those that who have no choice but to work from home, get economically pinged for it - it's soft persecution to single out that group for one. It's another example of how the human contrivance of 'money' ... is intrinsically disconnected from the same nature that evolved humanity. It's always fascinated me how it seems we, as a species, seem to lose sight of that. As though it's indispensable, we can couch its illusion of value in with, E=MC2, PV=NRT, and DNA = DeoxyriboNucleic Acid ... etc Point being, when the illusion gets in the way of the real processes of nature, to wit the pandemic is one such real process... trying to use that same illusion to fight back is going to cause iniquity .. there's no way around it. The simple solution is, don't do that - ...Here's some fake yet plausible news for you... NO, Douche-Bank doesn't give a ratz ass about recouping a 5% work from home tax, so that those who have been displaced from employment can breathe relief - hell no! Their f'n cloaking their incentives in good deeds ... They're trying to take wealth from working folks, give it to non-working folk, so the non-working folk can resume payment on defaulting mortgage ..and school ..car or whatever loans Douche' ultimately owns the account #s for, that's all.

Whatever happened to the 'virulency is losing its potency' claims ? I guess like all 'information' in this present era of wanton liars an paralyzing immorality, it was proven unsubstantiated?? Or maybe it/is was true, but just not the case everywhere. My guess? We won't know ...because it erodes on the profit of the commercialization of this issue to inform the masses of that. Meanwhile there's still a sociological aspect to this ... namely, people are 'getting used to this' as a background sort of canvas. Reaction to reality now is starting to raise eyebrows - that happens. Fear tends to erode in collective thinking given time and exposure in any crisis scenario; that statement doesn't require a theoretical, post-doctoral data-based inclusion to be true. We all know this... that's why we are no longer scared ( at least most of us...) by that dark closet at the other side of night as adults... blah blah... So familiarization breeds contempt.... That's true in a lot of ways ... and another phenomenon that emerges from that same circuitry at the individual level, which then integrates and becomes of the whole, is that familiarization emboldens folk and they'll lower precaution. We can 'sense' it taking place around us, now. There's something happening ..out there in society that I predicted would - and not taking credit; most sentient adults did, too. Word of mouth is factorable. People are hearing stories of others that have tested positive, and did not assimilate symptoms. Or, their anecdotal passage through the illness was minor... Pro athletes are showcasing this. Marcus Smart (Boston Celtics), or Cam Newton ( NE Patriots) but performed at a professional levels after having recovered... etc... There are exceptions - but they are "exceptions" which by definition and convention means they do not represent the bell-curve of experiences. But for those, some did/do go on to manifest some sort of longer termed heart and or lung and or ...I dunno, Covid-Toe aspects, but those are eventually resolvable (from what I've read) via therapies, save for rarities. But, even with Influenza-A and B ... you get these too! See, the Industrial Media Complex's "social engineering" is to keep pulse rates elevated ...for click and swipe for profit economics. It is just another act in shameful-unethical informatica if endemic to present era - just imho. We keep hearing about the atrocities of C-19 in a vacuum ...like on an island with no conceptual-dimensional boundaries that can be used to put things in perspective, on f'ing purpose! 'Nother prediction, ...that word of mouth is eventually going to be insurmountable against the Fox and CNN monsters in the dark closet at the other side of the room, and they'll ceasing being able to trigger the histrionics that keep their profits up...and we'll see the 'real' reality of C-19s 'affliction' at that time. It's probably just another historic thing that we develop a vaccine for... that degrades a "crisis" into "crisis management" ...which ultimately becomes "on-going seasonal public health concern" ...just like Influenze A-B ... And all the while...we'll be consuming headlines about how, " ...Life as we know it will never be 'normal' again..." .... BULLSHIT. The genomic root of Infl A and B is in fact the Spanish Flu... and if history ever should repeat ( THAT never happens in Humanity, huh - ), soon as folks mash up 'word of mouth' familiarization with a sense of technological buffer/protection... good luck imposing personal liberties Fox and CNN.

I love to argue against these sort of presumptive aspects ... so tfwiw - ... but I've seen big storms with cold winter porn addiction satisfaction ( as if that's possible - ) WITH/while that vortex was there. There are no 1::1 correlations. I know you know this ...but, I'm just reminding ... I personally don't throw hands and assume the worse for wear just because it shows up out there in guidance ...suggestively ... even if clad in fashion. What I do admit is that it makes it harder to get said kleenex and tissue-paper event to transpire - sure. Having said that...I don't think that semi/quasi-permanent gyres are "systemically favored" to evolve given the geophysical limitations imposed by velocity saturation - fancy words for too much rest state wind speed ( Ha, kind of an oxymoron there: 'resting wind' ) ... but y'all get what I mean... I mean in between storms, the wind still howls along at some positive anomaly. See. ...we're sorta conditioned to think of the winter hemispheres as looking certain ways from time to time? But, those may be increasingly outmoded in present era of higher tropospheric flow rates, compared to the previous climate regime; which ended ...so it seems, around 15 years ago when this maddening maelstrom stuff got more observably plaguing cold season hemispheres. In simple terms, it's hard to maintained curved surfaces ...when the flow around them is exceeding the coriolis/forcing input. The flow 'rips' open troughs and keeps things from closing. It doesn't mean you can't have bombs and ephemeral closures too - we're talking about mitigation, not complete obstruction. Part of the velocity surplusing is that the R-waves will also tend to be more progressive in nature ...just wave mechanics at the planetary scale - if we run through the enormous complexity of Navier-Stokes at these huge scales ...and ad giant DX terms ... the curvature of the flow suffers ...and that's why the progression bias has lurked ...this should be automatic and intuitive to any of us that had to go through those f'n calculations to graduate. Anyway, I don't think we can really sustain an anchored butt-bangs ...or 'anchor' anything ...there or anywhere else...long enough to dictate a season's bias complexion. The easiest pathway to getting a good winter out it is a multi stream long wave synergy ...where the wave numbers sort of coalesce to more like a 4-wave hemispheric model ... with fast transporting moderate impactors moving through the circuitry.

I am noticing a slightly better concerted look to the various ensemble clusters handling on the MJO as it’s trying to strengthen 8-1-2 ... Not a bad look but... it may also be a coincidence… we just can’t seem to be reliant upon these pattern changes. We’ve seen whole scale mass field alterations change like this since April and then they just disappear I guess it adds a little bit of intrigue to this thing because the original vision from 10 days ago looked like the second half of November would be a different story; and I remember writing about that but I also remember subsequently pulling the plug on it – ha! nice to kick off the season with a blunder We’ll see. But that really is a pretty hefty en masse flip on that cycle

Nice analysis, James

If that holds the GGEM led

I understand the frustration and hand tossing but the 12z Euro looks 0 Like a 2011-2012 redux

Yeah... not ready to sign off on the GGEM's +PNAPy look with those deep 850 mb thermal layouts... LE plumes and Clipper snow threats from D5 to 10 like that.... Euro is diametrically opposed by D10

Course ... not sure if y'all s-breezed down there. At least out here in the 300 ' level beneath the Worcester Hills of Metro west and 495 ... we've challenged May for a week.

I don't want winter at all. It has nothing to do with this warm spell - which I believe despite all eye-rolling is a partial manifestation of global warming. But ...this exotic warmth has me thinking... Same exact delivery 100 years ago is around 70 ... not mid to upper 70s... it is impossible to prove, yet is true, and so goes the insidious nature of GW. The problem is "synergistic" is nature - which is a result/outcome that is "more than the sum of the individual parts" ... In modern climate/changing therein... the "synergy" moments are warmer than they are 100 years ago... then, they are gone. Their causality with them... poof. When the rest states may only be mere decimals apart. The system does not appear capable of producing them with regularity, because the "more" in the more than the sum of their parts, is an emergence - so... they are dismissed out of hand as flukes. Wrong - We've only gained 1 F since 1920 ( say...). Synergy means that heat waves may be 5 F warmer... and Indian Summers are more likely to reach exotic anomalies in scalar and temporal ranges. That's how it works... See, I am starting to believe that the old mantra of "you can't blame a heat wave on global warming" is actually an equivocation- a lie... It's a lie pushed across by for two root reasons: either immorally to evade having to admit to GW... OR, those that thought they were actually being scientifically rational .. are missing that synergy bombs are going off because of it. Because either root ignores, or fails to examine "synergistic behavior" ... as a specific threat emergence which is something that only exist ephemerally and circumstantially, then disappears once the forces contributing disperse... I don't think the synergies of 1920, are as likely to emerge what we are dealing with now.

That looks almost like a Nino river coming into the west coast out there in the GFS' recent operational runs. Makes TOtal sense in a Nina Amid the GFS' multi-day hydraulic mining event ... there is even a 968 mb bomb coming into N. Cali D11 or so ...which, isn't a testament to its likeliness to actually take place or anything...but, that damaging scenario is then followed up by another in the deeper field...

Indirectly related... ...you know, it's interesting to me. I've noticed that we seem to get these exotic warm departure events outside of the warmer typical climo months in our region of the world - we don't get the heat when the sun is up. Europe..over to the low els beneath the Urals and parts of Russia and down in Australia, they get theirs more in the warm season proper. I don't know if that is back-able in the data. It may just be an artifact of News/media exposure. But it seems that when press breaks headlines over these 110 F 'omg' doom heat domes... we never get those temperatures around here - what we get is 80 F in November. It may be statistically equivalent in terms of anomaly but ( all jokes aside...), we've got it better. Anyway, in simple terms it seems we don't get the uber high temps here in summer. We're always clipping them short for whatever reason - but a reason always manifests. Same latitude elsewhere... 109 F? no problem. I'm not saying one should "want" that temperature - haha...

Transition out of the over-performing Indian Summer and into more typical autumn by this weekend, that's my take. Heh... tendency to hand throwing and grousing ... Reasonably coherent pattern breakdown in the runs by week's end, tho - My own attempt at objective observation over the modeling, we enter what looks more like a seasonally oscillatory pattern featuring 'seasonal above' and 'seasonal below' temp as opposed to always so warm... Sunday MEX is 5 under at D6 ...that's a cold number for climate modulation/this range... Either way, time for fropas and gunk.

Pig this and that ... just call it a -PNA.

was that what that was ... huh. - I'm up here in Ayer and we had something wave thru. Thing is, there was no train going by at the time..and it sort of woke me up. My house jiggles when said trains go by, anyway The Nashoba valley sits in an ancient effluvial flood plain geography ..so I wonder if 4.2 may have been enough to be felt here some 90 mi away. But I also had some stuff on the kitchen floor that started out on the counter top - folded brown/grocery bags and I was scratching my head trying to figure out how they were scattered about. Interesting...