Typhoon Tip

Well of course I do ... Jesus - I'm a science fiction author.... No but I don't think in this case there's embellishment in that sense ? I'm not after 'affectation' or gaslighting to incite a reaction or anything. As a sociologist ... obviously you know that compensating momentum has to be established in order to move a consensus, one that is by weight of historical convention and traditional points of views, all but immutable. That takes a bit of a blunt approach -

"Kernel of truth" - haha - okay dude

Two responses leap to mind ... if interesting - 1 ... no one should have been in a state of 'good vibes' if/when said vibes are aroused by yesterday's guidance images. They should have been wise, thus stone-faced and unmoved. It's venturing off into a separate arena of discussion why they do .. But keeping things to point: nothing changed going into yesterday and coming out ... The hemisphere is still in a circumstance that is highly unpredictable, relative to any range beyond 120 hours. Take the normal performance of any guidance, and jam a rack of M80s down their circuitry - that's what they are worth. Even the most advanced guidance tools available can't do it - I said this 33.4 times in the last week, when the blocking nodes are inconsistently placed on the map every other guidance cycle, or guidance type, at the same time pervades hyper fast progressive flow along and S of 40 N, that is just beyond the state-of-the-art of the technology. Think of it this way: blocking usually comes along with enhanced error; at the other end, progression comes along with enhanced error in its own right. Now add those two together, divide by 2 = ...ever heard the saying, 'two wrongs don't make a right' ? There is an emergent aspect though, that kills the rest - and that has to do with the fact that at all scales, the hemisphere is in a destructive mayhem. Nothing is positively enhancing anything else, because of these ongoing super structures. So... it's just the realistic rub of this era, of this winter, is that not only is model uncertainty a bounty of riches right now, whatever remains of that uncertainty is not supported to bounce or 'get lucky' in a positive direction, either. The 00z Euro hit my eyes this morning...no reaction except, yup - 2 ... personally I am not a huge fan of -NAO's and there is plenty of evidence and empirical data, both anecdotal and hard ..., that evinces it as over-assess and frankly, a fallacy of importance in enhancing winter storms in a favorable way . Not saying its zero...but, it is in fact the Pacific that actually controls whether the NAO does its things - it does so via "non-linearity" of wave dispersion mechanics...blah blah... folks just have to realize that the flat high speed -PNA sends robust ridge into 90 W, but then the flow relaxes in the Atlantic, and that causes latent heat to flux/dump off into the NAO domain...block ..with a PV pinned over Ontario... That whole integration is a west--> east forcing and is a manifestation of that transitive relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic. It's non-linear, because wave A ( Pacific...) creates wave C ( NAO ) ... while wave B ( in between...) may or may not even seem to perturb as the energy of A passes through its domain. That's really what's always been happening - in principle. Having said all that... the forces and the NAO/ blocking up there is not really the culprit. We were getting boned before the NAO emerged. In fact, setting the records straight, the -NAO is really only three or so days into its (finally!) realization on the charts. We are four weeks and counting, passing through three patterns now, ...no results. Neither of those patterns were really conducive since the Dec event.

Maybe an example of GW or whatever it is .. flopping marginal events toward wet more so could be that big nor'easter in March 2018 ... That's the one where the GFS kept setting up the region with 39/31 F, with 3" of QPF at ORH. We were thinking it was impossible to sustain that WB gap with all those parametrics in play, thinking that would be the model's typical BL thermodynamic problem ... and it would probably be 33 F glue. But ... what happened? It saturated alright! at 35/35 with cat paws in a flood watch. That storm moved away SE out into the Atlantic because of a -NAO western limber too - showing how useful that NAO was at supplying a Nor'easter with cold. Ugh. Heh, I guess it was March - it's getting late. But we also had a thick pasty pruner event with power hiccups a week later at more of a 32 F proper spring blue.

Mm... I dunno - I wonder if climate change is taking those marginal events and making 'em more rain - I've posed supposition over recent years that our "flop direction" is more apt to cat paws than parachutes in the past 5 years - ...just wonderin

That's got it's own rewards, though, Scott - the outside <-- in perspective. I run through that in the summer, all the time, ...when a tower lords near-by, and begins to glaciate and you hear the thunder - good one's even pop off a couple of + strokes from vil to Golfer ... Oh, I wish I was under it. But then realize, I wouldn't see that perspective...the sun side lit nebular plume - . I mean we can't be both places at once; and when underside and the winds may be swirling, the air silver with occasional hail dongs and bright flashes, enjoying that reward, I often wonder just the same what that pig looks like from the outside. That 'curtain' effect is real ...I saw that in the December 1992 flash over to heavy snow from heavy rain that I've extolled tails about ... It's true though...seeing that dense curtain sweep across the River from the elevated vantage of Fox Tower, and drop the visibility to < 1/4 mile almost immediately was unworldly ...

I almost imagine what happens of them 4 and half days is that both that 26th, and the 29er end up flat sheared "sun dim vis" shred fests to 1-3" maybe a lollipop 4" ...

right

I don't like the fact that those are riding over the top of a third trimester pregnancy in the deep south -

Ah... sorry, but it'd have to be an anomaly nested inside another anomaly to get either one of those two Euro depictions to transpire. Which, is compounding the odds against - it can happen though. And I'm not numb to the notion that other guidance are showing more interest. That does lend something of confidence.. That said, we are still stuck with greater than average uncertainty beyond D 4 .. 5 in any given guidance, to to the inherent limitations of fast flow under/30-50 N with inconsistently placed blocking above those latitudes every other cycle/model type... Those two aspect working together is beyond the state-of-the-art of the modeling ambit I'm afraid. I am also not numb to the crowd sensitivity in the matter, and that bruised backs don't need reminding of inherent limitations - I just figure/hope folks don't get carried away in those solutions. If we carry that look with several cycles ( more so than less...) and end up on 96 hours ...different ballgame perhaps.

My Met friend is right. The cold air did get muted this week ...

GGEM has moved the entire polar branch of the westerlies through SE Canada ...NE of its 00z axial position by some 1500 km ...becoming more evident by the 120 hour interval, and then maintains that bias through D6/7... effectively allowing the 26th to both maintain more coherence in the meat-mincer machine,... but also a more N trajectory.

You make fun of that .. because you hate the fact of its truth and inevitability - face your heartache and conquer that way. That's your salvation - through acceptance.

I noticed something subtle about the UKMET ... notice it's NAO block is more over the Canadian N. country/archipelago - it's not really over even the D. Straight region. In fact, it's so far W that it's even come off the western boundary of the domain space somewhat. Then... the wave in the M/A is suddenly situating enough N to at least clip CT-RI-SE regions... ? Not sure that's unrelated - Thing is, this is delicate needle threader pattern ...I mean like situational stem-ware situated between a couple of elephant asses. It wouldn't exactly be the first time that placement and amplitude of blocking nodes was inconsistent in guidance ..lol

Yeah sir - in the spirit of commiseration only ( so taken with the grain - ) ... the end of the 06z GFS operational ends the first week of Feb with still nothing to show. And at that time, we are passing through the event horizon of the solar nadir's end ..heralding in solar spring. Oh, the climate and lag and reality all team up and keep snow chances going until May ( stealing our warming/warm season when it does ) granted, but ... in the spirit of commiseration, if we're still in with this crap on Feb 6 I'm checked out. I don't care if 1888 walks through the door - I don't give a ratz shit f-sake what it does.. cold season shenanigans take a backseat to visions and memories, nostalgia of warm season affairs. And no, that does not mean I'm tying those aspirations to the cinema of model depictions so don't anyone try to couch the above sentiment in with that lunacy -

Does it have to be so dramatic ? lol - Not sure about the M/A ...they do tend to do better relative to their own climate in suppression - whether that is NAO driven or for whatever reason.. But as far as here? I took that as 'raise one's hand if guessed less' in general - I wasn't getting into specifics of CD inches received.

I just explained why - ...and adding to it, notice in that very same image you've got very little if any Pacific help relaying any kind of constructive wave support -

The FOUS method still suggests this type of WINDEX instability swaths over the region this afternoon ... Has the LI jump, the RH > 50% and the T1 to T5 is pretty damn steep as far as lapsing - It's just not quite as pronounced as it was yesterday when we brought it up - Funny how this season has done that - seems there's a fairly significant correlation between seeing/observing reasons for hope, and immediate subsequent model depiction finding least excuse imagined to rule it out as remotely plausible - lol... It's like the AI of modeling has evolved a deviant machine-intelligence that's going, 'oh yeah - take that'

well yeah... that's part in parcel -forcing by the Pacific pattern relay into N/A providing that, yup - bingo. Agreed. I'm just focused west personally ... I'm trying to figure out if: this is all La Nina driven ... or HC masquerading as La Nina by virtue of both having the ability to enhance easterly trades/pile warm water west of the Dateline... OR ( if that were not enough - ) some impossible to parse out quantities of either working in irregular tandemization - Here's the thing, the la Nina is not more than moderate in strength. Plus, the total flow characteristic is not very La Nina like over the Americas. I read the MJO publication weekly by CPC and I they keep saying the circulation identifies with the La Nina base-state. Do to the impossibility of parsing issue ( mentioned abv) I'm forced to agree - I mean there's no way to know what is caused in bulk weight for HC or Nina... Again, stressing the point that they mimic - and probably - constructively wave interfere with one another. But that base-line resembling of La Nina is not true over the Americas, either. So there's got to be other things systemically undefined here - In fact ...it's not a huge hypothetical leap to suggest that the oddities and idiosyncrasies that have been so distracting all along ... maybe it is something like a Nina being so super charge by the favorable HC ( and vice versa ) they've gone so as to "click" into the next gears up the transmission - so the waves end up aligning this way. It's sci-fi, hence the word "hypothesis" ..lol. But yeah. We also spent a lot of time in Novie through mid Dec complaining/opining/observing the apparent lack of Nina signature to the on-going maelstrom ... Then, as the cold season got thick, this has evolved... with this extraordinarily +WPO ...so violent that it's sending the inverted correlation state into the EPO ...by latent heat fluxing at an exceptionally long R-wave - causing heights to try and rise over the NE Pacific while the WPO remains positive. The warm water piling over the western Pac/ NINO 4 and west ...when the normal Asian/NW Pac Boreal heights fell during the autumn might have triggered this planetary jet response out around eastern China and Japan, so intense that it's lowered heights on the polarward side of that flow and pulled the PV off its kilter... That seems to be why the SSW emerged the more I'm looking at this. Not a standard model SSW ... ( and I like that too, because the QBO is technically anticorrelated in the westerly phase during the autumn leading the apparent SSW - doesn't lend to it truly being a top-down event, but one injected by unusual planetary wave dispersions - it did ...after all, manifest at the arc of the Pacific Basin ). But I'm not sure that matter really ... Whether the SSW is causing, or is caused, ...we're stuck with a weird western Pac jet anomaly,... failed NE Pac modeled height responses, and a whopper -AO that was already in place prior to the "SSW" - that's a red flag over what preceded and where the causality is located in my mind. I begin to suspect the La Nina works in tandem with HC is constructively causing this hemispheric emergence.

Not actually a terrible awareness/ ..surmise - I was extolling through descriptive flare just yesterday, when a given region comes under anomalies ...said anomalies can at times hammer relentlessly. Then, when said region has actually been beaten to death, losses incalculable ...THAT's when the anomaly starts hammering - The Earth makes sure. It's various systems are abusive ...cruel, without remorse. - to expect remorse from a 'persistence' scenario is an anthropomorphic fallacy - obviously .. goes without saying. But in 2015, we were being hammered the other way - few people complained or thought to introspection on the matter, did they. Ha "Weather" we are being hammered for 'good' or 'bad' is entirely a human distinction. There's no agency deciding who gets what, poetically. It just so happens to be, since we are homogeneously encased in an atmosphere that by and large will delve ubiquitously given enough time, it does in the instant seem unjust. And, arithmetic of averages hides the iniquity of the distribution. ...so to speak. But the forces governing this particular cold season's patternization have diced their way into a kind of 'stuck' scenario. These ridge nodes and blocking at 60 N, whether by formal SSW anchoring or some quasi -variant therefrom, they are not likely moving. They have situated in a proof that the -NAO was/is never the snow savior assigned to it - that I have had on-line arguments for decades over ...get proven right, and then have to go through the debate all over again when the next year comes around and the J.Q. Poster starts chatty-Kathy louting 'NAO NAO NAO' all over again... and again and fallacy again... Hopefully, this year will at last get that lesson across - NO, THE NAO WAS NEVER GOOD FOR US. It's better for western Europe... Just like the -EPO is better for us You can get into to narrow ranges where it may be more favorable; for starters, it has to be in modality. By virtue of 'narrow' that means rare ..that means, not good for us by standardized convention and f'ing logic! Aside from the mathematics that a changing NAO domains is caused by non-linear influence by wave dispersion downstream of the Pacific - giving a faux effect of forcing coming from the NAO domain. Which means..the 'storm' is caused ... by the Pacific. The more I think about there where it is situated stuff, I start to go 'mm' - if it is East biased, you could philosophically argue that it's not an NAO for us anyway. So that's kind of denial of truth distinction there. That all aside... This is probably about as negative wave ( destructively ..) interfering as is mechanically possible in the natural physics of the fluidic atmosphere. Label a region ...I can tell you exactly why it's wrongly oriented as an exertion someplace else... at all scales and dimensions - it is what it is. I don't believe Jan 29 has any hope of manifesting more impact than we've already seen hallucinated by machine enhancing - ...The suppressive nature of the total flow construct is needs to change - the western limb of the NAO has a ridge node that given typical R-wave spread, does not permit a cyclone genesis/transit S of the mid Atlantic. There are anomalies relative to anomalies ...yup - that's about the only way here... OR, the systemic structure needs a dry-eraser board swipe, something seriously badly, in lieu of a whole new paradigm.

0.34% chance

Norlun for the 26th on this GFS

Probably pretty bad when just because it is, we still don't get the winter storm of hopes and desires...only to relay into a three snow shower afternoons May ending in a June 1 synoptic slush event

We still have to go through a perfunctory 18.7" Kutchera cycle ... en route to partly sunny stein ..don't worry. But at least the yokels 'll get a nice Blue Magic O.D. run during that tortured journey -