Typhoon Tip

You should probably just stick to “GW”and leave the “A” out of it

No one said that global warming was why anyone storm is warm - where was that ever read ? There is an odd meteorology in the GFS solution… Which seems to have escaped everybody’s attention that’s trying to refute in knee jerk argue without thinking! Who gives a shit what your argument is about needing cold air and snow ...obviously WRT the 192 hr it’s the gdamn oddity of 510 heights over rain column - nothing else Look I wrote an op-ed-intoned piece for anybody that was lucid and objective in the read, and apparently some just don’t like the content ...

This isn't Meteorologically sound as reasoning - bold a, b, ...you should not "feel" anyting when one admits to an op -ed post... c, ... you are wrong if don't think HC is having a direct impact of disrupting/modulating previous climate signals - to wit the ENSO cycles is a part. Sorry - I know what I am talking about.

Correct ... I'm sure the CMC folk probably derive their indices, as do the JMA and Euro offices ... etc etc... The CPC's ( fyi - ) uses the middle tropospheric geopotential height anomalies across a grid.... Where they employ Emperical Orthogonals ( it's worth it to look it up and study it for a couple of hours- it's a nerd's paradise ) to derive polynomial expression.... where by they can be solved quadratically/sqr completion to determine the roots... Positive means as such and vice versa... It just so happens that by convention/latitude .. .negative in the case of EPO and NAO means the heights are higher than normal ... so PNA being more mid latitude ends up being negative as higher heights in the S... More over, the AO is a circumvallate extending S from the N-pole in all directions/radii equidistance ...I "think" down to 70S but don't quote me - can look that up.. Where's the EPO and NOA domain spaces extend above and below that ~ latitude by west-east longitudes.... such that they overlap the AO in partial eclipse, and can at times differentiate from the AO... That is why/where art is involved ... in/if the AO is falling to neutral, but the EPO and NAO are negative ... that means it is likely the AO overall is positive but happens to have some positive heights/blocking sharing the domain space with the former... and on and so on... They don't always move together either...sometimes changes over in Eurasia will tug the AO in an opposing direction to the Pac/Atl forcing and there's weird shit that transiently happens...

Yeah, okay gotcha ... I'll only add that "SNE in early December" takes a back-seat to what is actually on the chart and/or verifying - climate doesn't drive the latter, so if we're in the business of closing off heights so deep and physically bordering on impossibly raining at that depth ...we're talking about apples and oranges

It's okay to disagree ... but about what? I'm not even sure we are discussing the same facets - ... are you talking specific events or climate - if one wants to hone specifics, you can disagree all you want but having a 510 DM height center quasi-closed off and passing over head while it is raining is exceptionally rare and strains believability... As far as the climate change being 'under the radar' of general awareness - that's not even refutable ... Climate doesn't change one day - yeah...I don't know what is disagreed upon but okay

He was responding to my climate jest ... You seem to be adding commentary about a specific event ? which one ... As far as specifics: I'm intrigued by the D8 depiction in the GFS ...and even the GGEM is doing it to some degree ( pun intended ...). it's closing off heights so deep it strains believability that the column wouldn't be colder ..

I think there is some value in the notion that climate is insidious ... changing under one's nose and they may not be aware of it... " it's just so slow that we end up here and people don't recall a "switch" or definitive event that demarcates when a seamless boundary passed by - but it's "climate event horizon" stuff - you don't know you cross over the point of no return... " I was just making an op-ed out of it... "..In 1946 I don't believe we necessarily had to have a -EPO to get things going... " As far as your bold...not sure I agree that a month of anything logically follows... Ever heard of a phenomenon known as a "blue norther" ?? it does not take as long as we may think to clean out continental regional scope and scale of warmth. Blue norther is Plains phenomenon where cold dense air mass funnels down the lee side of the Rockies ...it gets sort of caught under the sounding and geographically/topographically the air mass continues to roll S under the environmental flow until it's momentum/pressure continuity is normalized.... Usually not stopping until pretty deep in latitude, too. It's almost like our "tuck" phenomenon, but over a much, much larger continental scale, really - ... It can turn balmy 74 F late autumn day in Dallas to 19 F pingers with fr drizzle in a single hour in very strong knife events. I wasn't intending to 'raise eyebrows' in that sense - more like droll with a soupcon of seriousness.

510 DM heights around a deepening core over L.I.... .... rain 510 DM heights over top 534 dm thickness - ...whaaaa ...

Normally I roll-eyes when the social tenor in here 'memes' on a popularity for grousing with that song and dance that 'pretends we're not trolling' But, hmm in this case, in deference to the lack of cold in Canada, despite the favorable PNA look ... I have to say I am impressed folks are objectively/lucid to the idea in this case. I remember opining either in this social media outlet, or emailing to some Met once ...probably both, that about 7 or 9 years I notice a difference setting in. It seemed we crossed a threshold. Our flop direction when facing modeled marginal looks started not going to -1C ... and in fact, going the other way. Maybe it's just another under-the-radar metric in how our region expresses a warming world. Our flop tendency --> +1 ... I don't mean that from any empirically derived hard thing ... Just an observation/anecdotal in general. It seems we are more and more NJ-like. I know ... I know ... desperately cobble counter arguments but ... okay. Maybe? But just keep in mind...climate change is happening And if/when that change is in the 'up' direction ... ? See ...one of the beauties - and saviors of sanity - about the cosmos is that reality still exists whether people want to believe it or not - lol... Anyway, the climate bands are migrating N. And seeing whopper +PNA's over 10 day stints approaching a proper winter climo month ... fail to load cold ... mm. I don't know...In 1946 I don't believe we necessarily had to have a -EPO to get things going... nah. It's endemic to modernity and where we're heading ... it's just so slow that we end up here and people don't recall a "switch" or definitive event that demarcates when a seamless boundary passed by - but it's "climate event horizon" stuff - you don't know you cross over the point of no return... So, being a little poetically/symbolic there but still - But, I remember saying ... it's like in the olden days we could count on a +2 C, 850 mb thermal layout in the CCB of coastal, on any given D8, winding up isothermal blue menaces... That just doesn't seem so reliant in anymore. It's like the "synergistic" tendency? Those ephemeral results that only exist while the storm is happening, emerged warmer now than 50 years ago... at all scales...dailies/events/ ..to large synoptic evolutions. Patterns find the warm flop direction with increasingly less excuses in getting there.. anyway, without a direct servicing cold ... the base-line does immediately go back to 1 degree too warm for anything ...

Right ... hence the operative "every cycle inches closer" phrase ... hello - that run sucks by the way - one shouldn't wanna hold that for 32 cycles any more than a steaming pile of feces ... but if you say so Nah, the runs have been - subjectively ... - materializing a cooler profile - as in 'trend' ? - and a deeper system, which frankly is more likely during that limb of the PNA rise than the foreground system ever was...

every model cycle(s) inch the region closer ....

mm.. 12z oper. GFS isn't an "inland" solution... no sense in overstating the matter lol. I mean there may be some subjective hand throwing but, inland is more definitively west... Like, PA with only paltry commitment toward a 'dent' on a warm front. Now that's inland.. . This? this is a coastal low... It's just not ideal... We don't have -8 C 850 mb entry temp slabbed down E along the coastal plain while a 974 mb low passes a stones throw east of ISP no. Folks need to be "fluid" in their chart interpretations - I suspect there's too much snap shot grousing that happens. To each is own... sure. But that solution is fine for this range in a rising PNA.

Word ... I just saw the 12z GFS re the foreground deal and it's really middling as a cyclone depth at best... barely less that mid 990's MB ... It's spacial ... large though - so in that sense/math it'll carry on with a decent extra-tropical ISE ... It probably still - as is - has enough mid level tropospheric wave mechanics to really have been a bigger deal .. but this blown open busted ravioli thing is very spring -like... it smacks like a combination of correction working on it.. One, the relay off the Pac may prove weaker than the model zealotry ( heh ), but it's also neutralizing early April D11 bomb that ends up weaker because seasonal migration exposing the weakening thermal gradients ( baroclinic layout) due to the sun... Only here? we have pallid cold and GW cooking the fronts to death... lol Nah... kidding on the GWl - eh hm...a little - but if we did have colder air, we probably would have changed this in a lot of feed-back reasons toward an different total evolution. Cold BL resistance forces coastal ...and that feeds-back by height falls then drawing the deeper layer E...and that also conserves the faster flow better... Probably spend more time than I care to on this thing ... it's thee transition system the heralds the PNA change - I've maintained that ... We'll see what happens later on -

As this thing comes off the Pacific over British C. up there over the western continental spacing ... and enters the denser more physically realized sounding grid ... it is not beyond the realm of possibility that it has been "over-assessed" the last three or four days of cycles it took to move thru the Pacific net - For us here, it may not mean much - I think ... - either way. But a flatter/weaker version of that thing would set up a 'different' ( how so?) downstream Lakes and western OV evolution. You know ... the long wave spacing has never set very well with me ... how anxious the models are in curling this thing up - even in the coherently fast flow biased GFS this was happening ... - because the flow is/has been systemically velocity rich ...for like 10 f'n years. It doesn't mean we can't immediately close off a diving S/W into a phasing scenario along 85 W longitude ... but ( to me ) it offers a 'correction vector' for that ending up with longer wave lengths. Fast super synoptic flows physically machine less closed solutions ... You can learn differential/vector calculus and then run through Navier-Stokes to show how/why... or, you can just think of it as trying to take you car around an off-ramp at 80 mph ... you tend to fish-tail ... if not leave the ramp space roughly tangent to the curve as your car slides sideways across the chopped winter wheat and snow and ice... That's when the blues come on because you don't realize at 1:47 am that those annoying headlights behind you that last several miles was actually a rookie state-trooper's SUV looking to score DUI arrest that'll up his cache on the force and bump 'im off the grave-yard shift.... oh, sorry - anyway.. The laws that govern all motion in the universe are no different. Wind is an expression of mass motion in the atmosphere... and wind obeys the same rules. It can't go around curves at excessive velocities, or it leaves the curvature(d) surface. So the reason I am taking the reader through that ...is not to lord wisdom or 'sound' smart - even though it is dim-wittingly prose(d) - ...it is because I am looking out for their mental well-being. Because for anyone that needs this cinema of modeling weather charts to derive meaning and joy out of life, it behooves them to have a bit of objective introspection that can protect them from lies LOL... Seriously ... after five some-odd-years of extraordinary hemispheric velocities as a persistent empirical predicament, ...said persistence doesn't lend to the rapidity and "eagerness" of the models to wrap that thing up so soon and vigorously - but you know.... okay, if the flow slows down and the velocities take a backseat, the closing proficiency could make more sense. All that aside, seems there is a ghostly homage to a bigger/another event in the D9/10 space ... I would watch that period of time. It's not novel to say, no ... Again, these index corrections ( ^ PNA) sometimes parlay aggregate phenomenon - not just one singular scenario. As we've noted, this PNA mode change rallies through the extended period actually.. taking to or even exceeding the 10th of December to fully realize, and as this unfurls ...the event for D5/6 in the foreground is prooobably not the total story ...

I remember posting that the American teleconnectors were signaling correction event(s) that could come in either one event or a series ... I even said the first would be a transition one, and that the next would have the better odds at a colder profile ... Not a shocker for me. It's really like nothing's changed ... and people are impatiently waiting on every model run to given that psychotropic cinema rush.. and their not getting it - haha... Just chill ... Happy T.G. by the way. word!

anyway... the only take away is that a +PNA is arriving and as is typical and proving so again ... it's leading modality heralds with storminess - nothing else ... for now.

I'm thinking part of the issue with that 'swirling' non-committed center ... it's very spring-like - Sometimes the mid and extended early April chart will have a deep mid level gyre that looks quite menacing, but has a comparatively weak surface reflection rattling around underneath. Basically in both scenarios such as that ...and probably this? - there's no cold air at low levels to force the frontal structures. It's complex fluid/thermodynamic stuff ... but sharper fronts do things like make upward vertical motion be more "up" ...and not diffusely spread out over broader, shallower frontal surface areas, where by the restoring up under the lifting air regions are also thus spread out - that 'spread out' opens up the low ... with that sort of busted ravioli mess -

un-related note... ... can the next person that brings up drought in this social-media's sphere be chastised and ridiculed beyond the very endurance of man please - every f'n June with this gig ya know - ugh

yeah... i posted about it over in the Novie thread ... fwi not w ... not a very believable solution due to continuity break -

12z GFS with substantial continuity break ... Less multi-stream involvement and really not an altogether trustworthy solution by look in general, but then adding two factors: ( said continuity disruption + PNA in the midst of mode change)/2 = good luck... Tho I still suspect the Euro has an overly smoothed/hyper correction that results in an overly deeply wound up unlikely Lakes solution ( seeing as it is D6/7 when that model bias' toward curvaceous flows anyway..)... I still think it's "smoothing" 4-D variable m.o. might be interesting here in a hour... The GFS is clawing and scraping to get a solution closer to the E/C though -

This smacks as a bit of an 'indirect evince' ... evidence of a cultural bias to operate on initial plausibility impulses without constraint ... lacking quantitative/qualitative empirical derived intelligence. I was just reading this article on NPR this morning ... ( National Public Radio, and perhaps one of the last bastions/depots where can be found non-manipulated informatics available for commoner...), https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/24/938593233/a-case-for-focusing-pandemic-restrictions-on-small-social-gatherings ... nested in those turns of phrase and sentences is penned direct statements where is implicit that a haplessly spied upon hiker with no mask ... represents nominal factor in enhancing spread... Perspective: A hundred -fifty years ago, 'folk' would hunker down with their rifles and shot guns poised, cocked and ready ... Not saying that is 'better', but ...there is a virtuosity in in just waiting ... you know? If by metaphor alone - meaning don't react until you got the facts! ...pending information to act - they didn't know what to do, and they knew that doing the wrong thing could prove far worse - But in modernity? ..we've gone and evolved a sort of 'pathos response' at a cultural level - people are brazen at taking matters into their own hands, hands guided by false information and lack of respect for the process of finding truth... and just assuming the plausibility is veracious. When we bathe lower objective reasoners with information that is intrinsically aggrandized for affect, you 'effect' actions ...and they pull their triggers. ... So, is any 'trail non-compliance' even sufficient enough to be a Pandemic threat? Doesn't appear to be the case as purported by those that actually DO possess said intelligence. Lol, "unconfirmed" ... it's not hard to imagine in this nosy "tattle-tail" society we have these days where high-tech hides douche operator identity ... of course that happened! But maybe I'm just being plausible ... Drone comedy of rural nimrod, line-toeing sycophants to the Covid-19 Reich.

Changes on the 00Z guidance ..

ha ha... no kidding. wow - we stated our case/logic yesterday ...summarily, the ensuing run cycles actually supported those hypothesis rather nicely ... But then what happens at 12z ? - It's like your family member or friend is in the 12th step of rehab and not hearing from them so you go to their house to find them passed out on the floor in a bender - right back there. i don't know what to make of that... it really doesn't fit that well with the persistence, but ... you know - anomalies relative to anomalies, that's usually where the devil lurks in this business. it's like a Russian nesting doll of anomaly ... The progressive anomaly doll cracks open and out pops an backward anomaly hiccup, just long enough for that thing to happen... then, jumps back inside the other doll after everyone's fun's been ruined lol i dunno ... fwiw, all players are over the Pacific. The intermediate/polar stream wave mechanics won't even relay over land until 4 days from 12z this morning... the vestigial southern stream low doesn't come in until tomorrow.... Meanwhile, the whole ordeal from D6 -10 is during a mode change of the PNA...? There's enough objective uncertainty there not to be sold on this solution -

maybe we oughta call these "rhino" patterns ... when the Nina is like the ass-end of a dead rhino .. .it looks like a Nino