Typhoon Tip

Late to the party tho contributed when i could - I feel this is a smidge of a positive bust already along Rt 2 up here in N Orh and Mid-sexy Co's ... We've been flirting with 1/4 mi vis at three different intervals since 4:30pm ... and have amassed 4" at mi casa - this is probably going to out perform the NWS totals... Harv was the highest I saw of the cam guys and he was 3-5" but west of here... - kinda give that a pass though. So I not sure how pervasive this is, or what this has in store through dawn, but if we're 4" now and start clear-air moding the rad fillin later on we're boot-legging a warning, if perhaps in a narrow band. Not sure what everyone's getting - no

I grow more impressed with each passing cycles ...now blending the Euro/GGEM/GFS regarding the western ridge ... too much astonishment -their respective ensemble means are on the same page with an impressive +PNAP inflation. It's not just the operationals... the EOFs are hollowing out the field SE of ACK... Even if transient ..it's just perfectly timed wit that -NAO decay to garbage collect any S/W shrapnel coming over the ridge arc ultimately ..having nowhere else but to phase in ... And we only see that as much as we can given the coarse nature of the guidance graphics but honestly ..there's more to those wave kinematics than that - that whole constructive feedback stuff is real folks...and this 18z GFS is now down < 528 dm with the resultant coupled nadir in the EC roll up ... and it's not really even delivered an impressive wind momentum yet... This one isn't predicated on ridge in the west this time, it predicated on what the Pac delivers that will/would ultimately get caught in amber in that aforementioned nodal Langrandian concept. It's just powdered stall scenario - like we haven't frankly seen in years ... - coming from the synoptic super structure. I'm waiting for the one run that dumps in a 110 knot S/W jet core and this things really going to go bonkers - It's got everything else

Hints at 'warm seclusion' ... yeah. I wouldn't be too concerned with details like the surface wind trajectory ... If it were even worth fretting over at this range, I'd caution that the confluence/upper air NAO blocking node that's passing SE through eastern Ontario and it's attending surface polar high will probably jam a NE flow down the Maine coast and pack a CF into the CC Canal ...maaybe as far inland as Taunton but again - these are meaningless distinctions for now. We need to get this D4 to start up with that... Although speculation is fun - don't get me wrong. I personally feel ( also ..) the GFS has a tendency to warm BL too much beyond short range. I see it with green and blue mixed QPF at 525 dm thickness ...ah, yeah, too often

Yup ... and when we get into analogs... most K.U.'s are cousins -

Prelim assessment on unusually high confident D6-8 day lead storm potential... At this time - appears >50% chance for higher impact. This may come as a more anyway ...but could also foundation upon duration alone. I would like to see another 4 to 6 dm cored out of the negative tilting/quasi closure as this is carving rather slowly compared to recent climo, from roughly the interior M/A lat/lon to between CC/'Raymond'mark ( ...uh, I mean ..) in order to really up the ante on this. It should be cautioned that 30 to 32.7 F 24 hours straight of moderate snow with embedded enhancing from the usual frontogenic/MESO/CSI, which both would happen, but are presently completely invisible to any determinism, becomes a major impact to civility. This is a new one by recent inference/standards - ... we'll have to go back in history for familiarization for how this type of system behaves. Slow moving quasi cut-off lows that are deepening during their translation: ... they'll have a field's -worth of idiosyncrasies about them that cannot be assessed/resolved this far out - but just be leery about any assumptions based upon recent experience. Hello all - 1"/hr rates protracted does a job on a demography anyway one cuts it, should that play out. The general early risk assessment appears to follow after K.U. more classically ... impressionably impacting from interior VA to Maine. This may come with a problems ranging from transportation, to grid infrastructure, basic snow removable gets exhaustive ... and I'm interested in Tide monitoring with slow moving coastal and long sourced fetch coming in around the N wall of the cyclonic well ( seeing some guidance < 990 now! ) means getting the ocean into wave tizzy either way...tide is depending. This event's governing super synoptic evolution arrives in a teleconnector 'Langrangian region' - artful metaphor... but area between ~ 90 and 60W/ 35 and 50N is equally stressed in all directions, such that whatever meanders into that region gets stuck for lack of better words... That region is becoming a pivot node between an transient +PNAP expression west ( which may in fact be rooted in a broader PNA mode change ...tho the verdict is sketchy on that... ). Meanwhile, the latitude collapse of erstwhile -NAO ( western limb ) blocking is trying to move down into the lower Maritime of Canada as the upper air confluence breaks apart. - pin the tale on the donkey. Not to aver any anolog, but 1969 is an example of this sort of nodal trapped disturbance. Because of these synoptic and more super-synoptic 'synergy' type signals, this would seem to be a higher confidence scenario for a D6-9 time range. It is notable that most operational guidance ( that I have seen ) ..seem to fall into place around a common scope - I'd almost take the Euro as the course of most likely utilization of the above concepts and go ahead and assume that a native speed/progression bias in most GFS -related guidance, probably attempts to compensate for this by smearing through that concept - it's not allowing the system's wherewithal to maximize. Which it may not... ? But I got to tell you ... this really smacks hard as one of the fixed deals at extended leads, because the physics et al at multiple planetary scales are constructively interfering. SO, summary: -- you don't have to have exotically deep Hollywood bombs to create big problems. You just need to have a couple few parametrics really maximize. The problem with slow movers is that they are given time to relay ... onset lift... --> CCB mechanics --> dynamic UVM CSI --> ...etc...these are given gestation hours and that's well achieved with 990 against a polar higher in a negative tilt. Jet cross sections look ideal...such that ( similar by behavior alone) a Jan 19, 1978 998 mb low did 20" at Logan in 24 hours.... You don't have to red-carpet the storm - -- duration of long-shore fetch and tides, which unlike that '78...this a large circulation with some low pressure SD depth and a pretty long isobaric layout. -- 31.5 F type mid aggregate paste falling through a -1C isothermal W-NW cyclonic arc is a problem for sustained QPF/grid ...particularly in the M/A but even up our way. so prelim risk ...and we'll add or take away as needed in the count-down. But at this time, this has a duration, multi-faceted look to it for me.

Yeah...this is not a majorly powerful system - it's impact is/was ( at this time and preceding indications...) by virtue of duration... That's the thread start - I'm presently detained with work related gunk .. I have not been writing for the past 15 hours though Ray - lol

Man same damn nodal low affect

Yeah I mean juggernaut pressure wells are A list Hollywood but aren’t necessary -, kinematic circumstance, is Jan 19 1978 broke the Logan 24 snow record over top a 1000mb low. You just need to max a couple physical processes it’s like Linus ... silent thumb sucker but boy can mother f’er rock the piano. We’ll see but models seem like their swapping memos here

Wow that ICON solution is like tipping over a cliff trying to fall into line - that should roll under beyond 156

Looking at the Nam it’s either grains or light snow or freezing drizzle or all three mixed or whatever going on from starting tomorrow 00 thru 60 hours .02-.05 melted every 6 hrs. It’s that pesky time duration requirement. 5” in 60 hrs won’t trip the motion detectors heh it’s nasty for people who don’t like gray blue air tho And I’m also not sure there won’t be OES underneath ...some enhancement to eastern zones and wondering if people are actually considering that awful long saturable fetch in cloud levels with shallow latent heat WB lift and the GFS actually shows a QPF rebundling going on out there after tomorrow night which might be a pile up of that saturated cold air into a snow in column. Not major but appeals better than radar if that happens like that.

Doesn’t have to be excessively deep… In fact you almost don’t want it to be that way given that super structure(s) some of the biggest snow producers I’ve ever seen we’re off of 990-996 mbers ... saturated cold easterly 850-700 mbar jet over Northeast underneath

It’s a rather unique scenario… Looking at the GEF mean and spread… Remarkably low spread really considering the time range ... but it starts snowing around 140 hours and it’s maximizing at 168 hours and then dying a slow death for the next 12 to 18 hours after that it really is a Tele connector ‘Lagrange point’ low It’s moving at the planetary wave scale motion that’s why it’s moving so slow trapped in the node between decaying NAO and the emerging PNAP ridge

If this lot survives the overnight I’ll start a thread in the morning if people want - or somebody else can I think it be justified This morning it seem like it was lacking some PNA support mostly was based on the decaying NAO dispersion stuff but now it seems like it’s got the ladder and the former working together plus seen that euro ensemble family and the euro operational and I don’t know I just think this is getting to be over 50% for a significant player

That sucker is gonna wave break and roll up underneath New England as a snowmachine with that look

Nah that’s perfect. that ain’t goin nowhere but due East to a MB destiny -impressive multi scale supportive synoptic parametric layout there for D 6 / 51 members too. Woosh

Oh I would never call something like that in this regime at that range heh. just what that run looked like

that euro run ..just got to see it ( 12z ) - f'n shit day at stress filled heads down work. feb 1-3rd i hate life but that looked to me like 27 consecutive hours of moderate snow .. probably 1.25" every 1hr or two the whole way ... Closing mid level heights coring another 12 dm deeper crawling E along the S shore, with a collocated 990 mb low going deeper only enhancing saturated easerly flow anomaly right in... and ample cold -2 C isothermal under the mid levels that frankly would have to have a couple meso bands in there that exceed that general notion above even ? Whatever guidance says about snow totals in that look ... double it! or, the model is wrong and that doesn't verify with that evolution - take one's pick. Am aware that other guidance and/or ensemble members may or may not agree ...blah blah...

I would be curious to know what the modality - less the in situ mode ... - was during the lead in and playout of that protracted event of lore. I am wondering if the index was modulating up or down ... My hunch is either. CPC and the like only give the index at monthly means throughout history ... Good luck finding intra-weekly discrete analysis from 50 years ago ..ha

As a metaphor ... I referred to this Feb 1-3rd event as a teleconnector "Lagrange point" - Lagranges are points where there is equal gravitational attraction at some distance between celestial bodies in space. ... essentially equal and opposing force are at equilibrium, and objects that meander into those locations will get stuck in gravitational amber ... no longer experiencing acceleration toward either body. SOHO satellite makes use of this... and is therefore stationary relative to Earth, even though it and Earth zip around the sun at like 65,000 mph ...heh. True tho - That region around 75-70 W longitude/ 40 N is basically becoming like an equilibrium in between. ...so there happens to be a timed wave mechanics that meanders into the position ... and is stranded by a lack of mode in the PNA exerting, and the NAO relaxation that's also pulling away - it's a node of negative space in that sense. Anyway, this thing appears to be less driven by any PNA --> PNAP morphologies. Yesterday I had impressed that there was some teleconnector convergence here, with the rising PNA and the rising NAO .. But, it doesn't appear looking at the actual operational pattern handling as though there is a +PNA much above background noise really contributing to that. I am also wonder if that may change ...? We may yet see a bit more get conveyed off the Pacific Basin, but as is...this appears to be wave disgards sort of collecting in clogged drainage basin in New England - it does smack of 1969 as Ray whomever that was alluded, if by principle alone at this sort of time lead.

regardless of any NORLUN proper realization later in the week beyond this nearer term .. that's interesting Meteorologically. Depending on the guidance in use, the GGEM is smearing that SPV fragment - but I am willing to side with the concerted Euro/GFS/ICON runs, which have strong consensus on that feature staying in tact as it trundles and carves SSE out of eastern Ontario. That's gonna pass an interval of impressive instability overhead. 500 mb temperatures probably bottoming out, and the heights being so low...the 500 mb level is not exceedingly high in the atmosphere. Bands of squalls inside of virga sky seems an easy instability realization ...whether or not that organizes around a llv trough reflection ...it could, if the motion of that SPV feature is slow enough than the convergence will tend to organize an axis and there's your NOR ' ... but either way, that's pretty damn interesting seeing that thing on the Euro and GFS like that -

I started noticing this about 30 hours or 5 or so cycles ago .. but opted to hold back pending some trend emerging - It's clear, now, that the later series runs have trended toward less power in the wave space associated with the 28th ... We don't have a thread for that specific date/system, but its indirect influence on the our region is melded into the nearer term stuff - it's all the same bag for the week. Anyway, it becoming increasingly clear that the prior GFS operational runs when this was mid range proper were likely 'over-assessing' that wave mechanics. That wave space in the flow begins to relay into the denser/more physical sounding grid during the day today's runs and tonight especially. Currently there is a strong NNW- SSE diving jet max still west of the NW/Cali coast over the water ( outside slider they call these...); it appears to me that these mechanics were being over emphasized by those prior runs that had a juggernaut ... downstream west Atlantic 'PD1' type system. In fact, every run since 2.5 days ago has inched off the throttle on all that...and as of the 06z run, the wave doesn't even close off really - it's more of a flat, .. open wave event that not only is weaker, but I suspect by virtue of that weaker integration, it is taking a slightly northerly route. That's an interesting correction - swapping some intensity and slowness, for a northerly kite ride over the vestigial southern height wall. We've seen over-assessing several times this winter. It almost smacks as thought the 'under' assessment that used to get forecasters into trouble ( 'boxing day ) ...was fixed, .. perhaps deliberately the other way. Figuring it's less risk to civility to back off, then it is to have to lean into a complacent mass of people that needs three weeks and life to motivate over warnings ( sorry..I have to get at least one misanthropic back-hand in per day..) .. Anyway, not that anyone 'needed' this perspective op-ed, but the 28th-29th is officially dead to me when connecting the dots on that tendency for over assessing, meets with recent/later depictions indeed showing a reality less impressive, flatter... faster... Makes me wonder if this should be a like an automatic 20% kinematic reduction/assumption by all later mid range and extended ...geez Here's a wild notion tho ... if that relay off the Pac over southern Cal ends up even weaker ...that wave space flattens even more, and ends up riding off the NJ coast instead of carving into the heights and diving SE as much... It's already backing off doing that SE deep layer motion ...probably owing to skipping off the pond as opposed to torpedoing the water - so to speak. If it does so more, than we may end up with that melding into the protracted character of the on-going light snow. In other words, this could be heading toward less all around.. but less means that the southern heights keep it all floating N of previous -

Yeah... I been wanting to mention this but the wave has really only shown that robust progression since about 2 or so days ago. Prior to then/ .. last month, the wave was bouncing around trying to push futilely through the La Nina/HC signal, crawling through obscurity instead.. But, this 7-8-2 has a modest negative correlation coefficients heading into February ... actually -.25 which is pretty good for atmospheric vagaries... Anyway, so there is a bit a statistical support from the historical hemisphere for those phases vs the cooler NINO 3.4 regional SST gunk. But, ...caution, I'm also hesitant and feeling a little hypocritical in mentioning because .. in fairness, I've been musing ( Ray and Will know this..) the idea of the MJO's ( and la nina for that matter ) questionably being buried inside the HC ...which means that they are less contacting the gradient where their dispersion mechanics can influence the jet ...etc... it's all best left for a bad night with mushrooms - The other aspect is that the WPO really needs to stop festering and relax ... Otherwise, what good does it do. That wave may not propagate out of the Maritime continent, either, if it runs into a planetary R-wave Neptunian velocity road block..

actually jesus...That's a 30 hour snow gig on that Euro run. Actually, it looks less for +PNA and more so for -NAO decay mechanics - interesting... either way. that's why having multiple tele's converging is useful - heh, if one fugs up the other might succeed.

You should read what I posted for you re this subject matter in the other thread -

In fact... this is the type of lead teleconnector spread that would have me creating a thread back in the day - I'm willing to wait the < D7 sort of culture of teasing and harassment that's evolved ... lest one suffers the wrath of humiliating playground admonishment so extreme as to challenge the very endurance of man .. But this one uniquely favored above anything we've seen since that October thing ... and actually, better conveyed through those large modality arguments than what which preceded the Dec 17 storm. So now it DEFINITELY ain't happenin' It's okay - we'll blame Scott if it doesn't