Typhoon Tip

Mm... I remember very specifically adsressing the depictions of QPF 'shadowing' that were persistently on the guidance leading that event, Dec 17, across the pantheon of leading tech frankly. Not that anyone refutes - just sayn'. There was zero ambiguity... It was absolutely clear that for a few of us, we were taking it seriously and were leery of that feature and design in those QPF spreads, based upon experience, and we even discussed, profoundly, plausible causalities for that phenomenon in other systems in history. Ideas such secondary ingesting very dry 'tuck' jet air hygroscopically eating at the fall column, to UVM repositioning mechanics ( Brian's assertion above ..) ...were all viable culprit candidates... all of which are valid reasons for why the models do sometimes paint those systems wth "V" notching QPF 'predesignated' sore-butt zones. Ha As it were, .. yup - don't argue with the notch! It verified. We here, in that area, verified the doubts to 11.5" totals. I just don't bitch and complain about totals nearing a foot -heh. 15+ was more common surrounding N. Worc/ N. Mid and adjacent S-SE NH... While at it ... I studied that event as it was unfolding... the reason for the notch that time, from what I surmised, was a split in the tropospheric vertical column of the storm. The mid and U/A, post split, drifted through central NE partying on in those shenanigans. Whilst the 700 mb drifted along LI, festering a bit of secondary that enhanced snow S of here ..but not nearly as prolific as the mid level magic going on N. May also have been some llv CF helping down there, too. This all in totality "spared" a band from N of Springfield ( or so ) Ma Nashua NH from the same output.

I am wondering how these plots are assessed really ... I could see that being two distinct nodal lows at that hourly interval- it's just that of those members ...they happen to have developed enough of the 2nd to close that circulation and ping the plot. In practical terms, said 2nd circulation might look like a kink or bend in the cold front that is subtended S beneath the 'main' vortex ... Something like this, We have to consider that this is ...well, as of yesterday and priors ... a very broad trough in terms of areal expanse ... it's huge! Or 'yuge' depending on one's vernacular in the region ... So much so that it could very well gestate an entirely new ..albeit weaker, cyclonic life-cycle down further along the seaward escaping baroclinic axis. It's not uncommon with large eddy mechanics to see the cold frontal kink, and a new low develops between Florida and Bermuda... You know... when I was 11 years old and flunking math miserably ... what I was doing instead of paying attention, ...notes, deciphering ..heh, was literally and figuratively for that matter, drawing weather maps. Yup - that's what I did. Teacher even said once in an admonishing parent-teacher-why-is-my-kid-a-consummate-dinktard conference, " I don't understand, he's a great student - I always see him furiously taking notes when I turn around to face the class..." 'Cept, those weren't math notes. First, I would free-hand the U.S., and I was pretty fantastic ...right down to the Pu. Sound to the Baja of Cal... to the Miss. Delta... Delmarva, GLs...Finger Lakes and Cape Ann... I didn't bother with the geodesic state lines...I kept to physical geography and left the tarnishing conceit of humanity from the purity of my designs ... ( I was a fledgling cynic too - ). Take the average dorky nerd of cinema and literature trope, call that person's life a black hole of despair: I was the super massive black hole version of that ... Anyway, I used to draw movies of frontal sequences ...in between spit-soaked paper wad plunks to the side of the head and the occasional special ridicule the same cinema and literature ...never quite seems to get right. Here's the interesting aspect ... I learned a lot about the "Norwegian Cyclone" model thus by reasoning through the artistic nature of that focus. I remember as I contoured each frame ( and I even instinctively did 6 am and noon and 6pm and midnight in-order, only to find later in life...that's the way the Met world does it too... ) having aspects and answers to lingering questions come to me. 'Oh, that's got to be why -', secret learning through the an internal Socratic method ... See, it's why I am a huge advocate for giving kids play time. Kids not allowed to use imagination - interesting subsequent adulthoods... But so much conceptual stuff I gleaned out of these right hemispheric storm tapestry sessions ... I was completely nuts! *BUT*, by the time I got to college and those first couple of years of synoptic, I A'ed everything! Funny the stuff you think about when your dad tells you his brother died - maybe just the spectrum of one's own experiences and how they got there becomes paramount. Anyway, ...and I've often wondered if a big meaty beefy bitch trough with several spokes timed 2 clicks apart could spin up "kink" lows that peel back NW and ensemble line punch a region repeatingly - LOL... No accounting for the imagination of a small boy ... Come time and life and experiences and Christine's later, I learned how that's essentially how all this works anyway. It's called S/W embedded in L/W ...embedded in resident R-waves .. it's just happening at broader and longer time scales.

I had posted this in the wrong thread: V16 looks like it is engineering a way to not do anything - grudgingly .. it's admitting to that ? ... interesting.. I suppose it's possible that a this signal could remain less than fully realized. Thank goodness this is the new version set to come on line in a week. Sometimes I cannot help but suspect everything with GFS DNA seems to try and avoid baroclinic exchange of any mass fields... allowing them to slide past one another never really tapping into the potential dynamics that exist in their absolute differentials - very interesting... But I really believe that if the progressive bias corrects, that exchange and deepening feed-back emerges. Whatever it is in the physics...these GFS' I see this all the time with this guidance, going back many versions for that matter. It figuratively if not literally ...goes out of its way to jam nails and staples into the crank case of baroclinic trough evolutions... and you end up with busted raviolis - I have a question...does the GFS run a QPF dry bias ?? just curious - In any case. This too me, ..at this range and owing to leading indicators, appears to be the best fit for now - not anything the GFS is selling...or it's V16 either...

It's like ...this is the antithesis of the snow retention year - watch ... we'll end up with 80 to 100 inches and no one will be able to honestly report a pack on the ground more than 10 % of the time

heh...and it helps if said 'hot chick' wasn't the prison yard princess in a blonde wig to begin with -

Know how we know it'll rival history ? because 3 days later it's 62 F with howling southerly gales -

Pretty good NCEP summarization ...echoing the sensible voice(s) found in here - Regarding the system tracking eastward from the Plains and then redeveloping near the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast, probabilistic winter weather guidance shows the best potential for meaningful snow extending from the Midwest through parts of the Ohio Valley and then from the interior Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians and across New England. There is still some uncertainty regarding the rain/snow transition zone. Meanwhile the potential complexity of the evolution aloft over the East Coast further tempers confidence in specifics, especially given how sensitive precipitation location/type/intensity will be to important details that will likely take into the short range time frame to resolve. There may be a small margin for error between a significant snowfall and a modest one. Farther south expect the highest rainfall totals to extend from near the east-central Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley into North Carolina or vicinity. Some of this activity may be moderate to heavy but its relatively swift motion should keep rainfall totals from becoming too extreme

Yeah... honestly, for 'big storm enthusiasts' this is on hold pending - This run strikes me as the same thing ... it's more of a 2.5 day placeholder event for having a huge numerical potential in the box roughly bounded by 60-90W by 35-50N ... We could have a more important S/W take command early ... mid .. or late in that time span and then we end up with the decadal faster flow storm in lieu of this weird 2 days moderate pub crawl. Best to go with moderate snow over an usually longer period ...type of thing I just wonder if the EPS mean does the same thing and out-bids it's own captain - like the 0z run

not sure ... it could get all proper/traditionally leading indicator - like, but...I still believe this has more bent toward an unusual aspect, where the perennial North American pattern ( not to be confused with the PNA ) is - for whatever reason - bursting a western height eruption. That's not really PNA proper feed in...but it is what it is... The problem with the PNAP is that wave space terminates roughly... Ohioness in longitude... Meanwhile, the 90 to 60W is getting abandoned by the crumbling -NAO, western limbed blocking... That leaves a null region in normal progression ( transiently..) ... So whatever times in there gets caught in amber ... but that's getting speculative - The short answer is that it "looks" more proper than it is... This thing's hiding its secrets - I call those "super synoptic," but it's just meaning that there are synergistic aspects and are readily observable. They feed-back on forcing things once they emerge. ...tough not to believe in the cosmic dildo but that's a digression for another paranoia... LOL

Honestly ... this needs to be the correction vector ...and we probably aren't the best crew of individuals to be exposed to guidance availing of a Langrangian COL point in the teleconnector spread because with our cutting objective insight...we definitely will filter out that prospect of a 60 hours of Coastal avalanche and go with something more sensible than taking 2.5 days to snow S+++ the whole way - 'totally can happen, dude'

That's a choke snow inflow jet - sorry... - it's just a model depiction amongst many that we'll eye-candy and/or rue our ways thru over the next 3 or so days ... then perhaps a believable consensus "precipitates" ( haha ) out of all that, but in a snap shot... with closing/deepening 700-400 plates under a 300 mb right fanning diffluence... that is snowing 8" /hr with multi pulse + stroked CG so powerful that EMP shuts down the grid clear to DCA and trips gamma-ray detectors down at LIGO I'm kidding... heh. I haven't read J. Nichol's story yet but I fear such turns of phrasing - ... just kidding James. Anyway, seriously, that kind of inflow jet under an unstable and continuing to further destablizing interior cyclonic stadium ...with diffluence in the upper region is likely to be prolific if that were to pan that way -

Guys ... "dry slot" in accordance with Met parlance is not merely where it is dry - haha... That's a dry entrained tongue of air that wraps under the 700mb belly. Just making sure... I don't a 986 mb low on or just west of the BM has a 700 mb low that far inland, or else that is definitely a suspect structured pos run -

It's a weak list in my estimation - fwiw ... I don't see any of those below as exceptional tie-ins ... just guesstimating it looks like the top 5 or no better than mid 60s ... maybe mid 70s %tile I think/wonder if that owes to the fact that this is a unique- ish scenario. I mean, you can get analog lists that are above the 85th in the top five ...

Y'allz can find it here: https://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-Collections/US-Daily-Weather-Maps

Yup ... so, we're now turning pages into the chapters of this saga, where both the operational model runs attempt to gaslight ... but, people allow them to - I think we used to call this middle range black out back in the day...

Nah ...it's not even SE ... not with that moderate spread near ACK ... that's just as much likelihood that thing destines too close actually -

Yup ... ( moderate potency + duration ) /2 solution there want to stress the distinction between a 9 to 12 hour snow bomb with CCB wind event off a bomb juggernaut -vs- a 24 hour moderate snow with occasional heavy bands and occasional lighter bands, in moderate climate storm winds... Those two scenarios get one to the same impact destination. That is, of course...how all this looks now. Also stressing the point ...we are still really seeing the models responding to period of time more so than a specific event - altho the latter is formulating. You can punt the 48 hours of constant hosing snow and wind as though New England and upper M/A will sit that long inside the choke flow off the nozzle of a Valian snow making machine ... uh, you know better than that - c'mon

LOL ... In any case, there is an emerging signal for a robust cold wave/event to transpire toward the end of the first week of Feb ...materializing probably in guidance more coherently - if so - while we feast or famine through the Feb 1-3rd ordeal ... It's a basic overview, but the MJO appears potent in guidance from multiple sourcing ( Euro/GFS/EPS/GEFs et all) through Phase 7 ... as a slow lurker but moderate wave potency in the RMM as most can easily go see/find.. But, that does correlate with the -AO ... which dun dun dunnnnn: -- SSW timing and that particular forcing mechanism begins ...basically today. LOL... no kidding though..timing the end of the first week of January puts day 20 mean correlation lag today. But, obviously there are no ridged rules ... but, we are seeing a renew downward mode of the AO out there between the 7th and 14th of February, as the MJO is propagating pretty potently in the RMM thru climate supportive Phase 7 and likely extrapolates into 8. The strengthening MJO on the left side of the RMM is actually the preferred correlation with the -AO...so that part of the statistical package is clad. What is a bit odd is that all of this sort of conflicts with the low amplitude La Nina footprint ... Having said that, I don't give a shit... The La Nina - imho - is almost impossible to parse out its influence from the HC expansion shit which is just as real... And the MJO is bursting out of that buried state is what it is ... and if it is in Phase 7 and successfully propaging ... this all becomes yet another form of 'teleconnector convergence' perhaps enough to overpower that low amplitude baser state. And we'd likely see a -EPO out of the concerted exertion over the total hemisphere when these get detected. That's my lean at this time... That's also a regime change that will replace this +PNAP ... quasi -NAO bouncing around... New storm chance ? It wouldn't be like this one here in the foreground - agreed.. If we get into a -EPO loading pattern, we squeeze things and herald anew a return to the velocity surplussing -

Heh... you know ? - I mean this isn't Iceland, nor is this an Icelandic Low redux hahaha

Yeah... despite my own arty rhetoric at times ( ..heh ) ...I'm still of the school for a long-duration moderate snow, that by virtue of said duration, ...attains a more robust if not major impact from interior mid Atlantic up to Maine as a base-line risk assessment. It's got modulation room for more and less.. K.U.... ? Yup Historic ? Heh, I'd shelve that for now I just elaborated my various ensemble mean hot-takes ( lol. ...) but, I also modulate aspects based upon experience and book-smarts combined... I do think this can evolve- not impossible in other words - toward a historic deal, but there's just as much possibility for something durational/less...etc... I believe a substantive system is higher likelihood. And we eye-candy runs for muse until D4.5 ... The other aspect to bring up is that... the EPS ( for example...) and the GEFs are 2-day onslaughts...so, the front side of this may come into the visible range of improving certitude before the ass end of it... One thing I am noticing that is a interesting, and is true in both the GEFs and EPS ( pretty remarkable micro-management at this range frankly, too - ) is that they have a kind 'impact pulsation' episodes in two - owing to the fact that there is 2ndary mid troposphere wave mechanics bottoming out and helping back-develop the systemic envelopment of the cyclone - noisy fascination -

I'll get caught up with other's contribution since ... but from where I'm sitting, the ensemble means are ominous. Whether the portend is a chapter out of a Nichol's dystopian fantasy, or lesser impacts through other storm characteristics and means.... something is high confidence for significant impact, still. -- The various ensemble means - which I believe at 120-180 late mid range is still the course of lesser regret All three, GEPS, GEFS and EPS came in substantially implicating .. relative to their previous blends. In fact , all three have improved along a constant trend for 5 cycles. That's a fantastic signal.. It's getting that unavoidable vibe about it - in the least, too much weight to ignore, and because the super synoptic, synoptic, and individual depictions are shared in conception for a large system with multi-faceted impact profiling... eigh ... -- The GEPs blend was the less improved in the absolute sense, but still gathered west and deeper all around. Obviously the take away there is that it is taking advantage of the earlier thread discussion/ elaborated teleconnector convergence aspect, and probably .. this continues to emerge more consolidated/ west imho, in this particular cluster/future. What's 'telecon convergence'? That's a personal-ism for when/where there are distinctly differing mass-field modalities exerting a statistical implication upon the same correlated space ... ( example, -NAO correlates to the EC .. the +PNAP correlates to ... duh duh dunnn the EC ) The spirit of which is to compound the confidence interval that said location is getting its hide prepped for a tanning ... - LOL -- The GEFs is deeper and west, both with mid level heights, and surface blended isobaric pressure over previous cycles. The implication of this mean is a solid 48 hour Nor'easter...I suspect that gets narrowed to either the earlier or latter 24-hour period... I have never heard or seen a Coastal storm rage for 48 straight hours with non stop implications of QPF loading, winds and onslaughts. This event is slow moving ... that slow movement is because - imho as discussed in rhetorical artistry - it is situating in a kind of atmospheric Lagragian nexus, where there is an absence of steering field/equal stress to evac whatever ends up there - which is quite analogous really to what a gravitation Lagragian point is in space, where objects get trapped in gravitational amber between two celestial gravity wells because of equal tide effects. I don't see that this conceptually can't have more practical usefulness, anyway, as all of it is ultimately based upon wave-mechanics anyway -...so, mathematicians can tussle but it doesn't matter. Point is, the +PNAP is dumping synergistic wave feed-backs into a region that the decay of the erstwhile -NAO is abandoning, and that region is thus stranded as a node between two regions of exterior forcing, so it, too, ends up equally stressed much in the same way. -- The EPS looks like a 30 hour blizzard of historic snow depth, but perhaps only moderate wind concerns relative to climate on this latter. That's just the way that canvas looks - not forecasting that. Good lord! A 993 mb blend at D7 !! on the BM, with a heights falling 10 dm across 24 hours preceding as the whole structure agonizes slowly by along a trajectory SE of ISP, L.I. ... All of which is bathed in -1 SE to -10 NW 850 mb CCB thermal profile beneath what conceptually has to be ideal everything .... sorry - it is what it is at this time. The operational version being a less amplified .. more busted ravioli than it's own ensemble mean at D7 ... I've seen the oper. be less amped, albeit quite rare, over the ensemble mean, but not that far out in time - that's a head-scratcher. I wouldn't hang up on individual cycle/operational distractions and/or "noise" this, or run to run specific give and take thats - this system still needs to come into front side of the mid-range. ...And these ens means, and operational signals ... they're all just explaining that, I feel these crawling 2-day event depictions are really the bevy of technology flagging the ginormous numerically favorable 2-3 days period for something important to evolve ... the movement/structure of which is really more, for D5-8, being conducted by these super-structures ( emergent properties) combined with planetary R-wave motions. Plenty of time... This still looks to me like said 2-3 day period of higher tier numerical potential, just perhaps waiting for whatever S/W mechanics will time/handle into it..

It’s just missing that small amount of addition jet mechanics ... but it’s not anywhere close to a range where that matters. rule of time-dependency in the uncertainty term ... you don’t want perfection beyond 120 hrs. You want hints of perfection This is an entire situation where the sensitivity is more focused in the actual shortwave(s) dumping into ...the surrounding medium, which has been consistently modeled with those previously discussed synoptic and super synoptic constraints. I think it’s possible that this gets a little bit more beef as we get closer and get more sampling. And said surrounding medium is so favorable for amplification due to constructive interference that if even a little more shortwave mechanics get dumped and you’re going to get a disproportionately bigger payback ...that’s the way synergy works. Rogue wave complexity

Reminds me of April ‘97

Euro kicked in 18z yesterday with that exquisite snow production/cross-sectional jets appeal and every model keeps hitting that ever since. Even the ICON sells that perfect slabbing incredible consistency for that specificity.

Man that NORLUN just missed on this ICON run