Typhoon Tip

It's bizarre seeing Henri approaching the U.S. from that azimuth

I am - the GFS is just such a Global instrument of mass destruction - LOL no, but I think that it is more trustworthy at least in the short term, seeing as it even knows it is there - the Euro doesn't make it abundantly clear that it is resolving Henri at point of initialization, it's not going to be subsequently clear that it is properly interacting with "reality" out in time just the same. As far as the GFS out in time.. mm,don't know about that whole looping shit though. Time to work that/track I guess. But a couple things occur to me. One, west Atlantic ridges are notoriously under handled. Sandy was originally into Maine ... end up near Cape May, much for the same reason, the -NAO/westerly biased block became more mechanical in the steering as a correction - the track shifted west and ultimately down the coast accordingly. Two, Fred appears to have ended up on the westerly envelope track - sometimes in situ synoptics repeat. Is this one of those times? Both these two facets may lean a climo inference toward a west position - hey, at least there's a clad logic to this reasoning. Also, I am seeing a primitive eye on vis this hour. A stronger system interacting with the surrounding medium "might" also alter matters. ..the impetus being, emerging eye may indicate strengthening.

I needs ( Euro ) to initialize the system deeper - deal with it.

Now that I look closer at the GFS... That's a boring solution for storm enthusiasts frankly. It's lifting the cyclostrophic disk above the BL by the time that cross L.I. ... That 990 low at the time/position near NYC, probably doesn't bring much down to the surface given the rate of weakening and the decoupling from the cold water/land interference imposed leading and during that time. Sorry. Then it comes over a quick responder stream over banks deal... something more like that.

agreed

Imho .. can't be used until it does.

I'd like it to actually 'see' the fugger first -

This NAO curve does support some semblance of blocking ... I mean the NAO domain is large enough - it could be more so over the eastern vs western limb where that takes place. But since the modest blocking that rolls over top and settles S of NS seems want to be the primary conductor in sending Henri circuitously as does ( GFS), having this synoptic super-structural indicator is probably fitting -

That was the general tropical thread - not sure that should have been closed? lol - whatever.

Certainly not impossible, no - 'loops' to me are almost like resolving uncertaing causes the loop more so. Lol... Half kidding. Loops do happen, but blah blah

Probably not a whole helluva lot of scientific merit in making the following statement... buuut, I don't like it when models get cutesy with loops and weird stalls when handling a type of phenomenon where predicting those aspects has almost never been achieved - very well at least. Perhaps the state of the art with that sort of thing is better ... but D4? My experience is that it could just as well mean the entire handling can be disrupted in future runs - and that probably in spirit does have merit. But, I mean, I almost wonder if we should considering it a negative in deterministic.

So it begins ... muah hahahaha

no I'll go look -

It is -but you know ... Sandy in totality is not a good analog? I don't think... But, the observation of a 'left hook' sort of suggest that north motion/oddity is relatable. I mean duh - it can happen? Maybe ( oh shit this'll roll eyes ...) as the climate warms and the Hadley Cell expands we are more likely to end up with left turners and odd N motions that last longer prior to hooking up the westerlies. - just a thought

Can you provide that so I can dork-drool ? heh... I love that sort of thing - But yeah, there's actually an account from way back whence of something similar - Dr. Frank Colby at UML was telling us, an MCS came off the Mid Atlantic in the 1970s ( I think was the decade ), and it festered off the E.C. and acquired some sort of a hybrid phased physics and then went across the N. Atlantic as a weird bomb and slammed into the British Isles days later. That's the ultimate butterfly fart CB over Colorado !

Just a shout out to those who never seem to near a gstring, or get to pass over the warm sultry sexy source of that heat to lighten the load along the way...

You know ( not "you," the royal 'you') ... I must say, the Tweet-osphere is designed brilliantly. The act of Tweeting engenders new tweets, because their brevity can only incense the reader. They are, by virtue of being too brief, thus impossible as anything other than argumentative. Ex, the tweet sparks a tweet storm, and then results ...however economically that works, some kind of financial precipitation falling out with far greater density then the storm in the originally f'ing tweet. Now, I know - or suspect anyway ... - why he pushed that 'argument' across, but only because there is a weird well-timed, transient blocking ridge that rolls around the TC, from N of Maine ...passing then SE of NS....directing Henri N instead of a NE turn like climo. Hence, the ana prefix to the etymology of 'nominal' --> normalcy bears some usefulness to the discuss. That's droll - But, point is, the total Sandy model is not relavent here. Sandy was also being captured by a full -bird early season cold trough approaching the E. It also came through the Caribbean as a zygote and intensified significanly S of Cuba ... passing over the island, and "sorta" restrengthening as it moved N, while accelerating, a behavior that is unclear at best whether Henri will do so, too. This Henri has a fascinating history that is in fact the exact opposite of Sandy. It started - as far as I recall ...any other sources or accounts certainly welcome - as a cluster of showers S of NS over the cold waters there. It was forced synoptically to move S... as it did over a couple/three days, it slowly got better/deeper convection nearing the g-string. As it passed over the warm sultry sexy source of heat, it finally phase transitions and then we had a depression... It has since parabolically moved back SW ...now seemingly turning W, while [ probably ] nearing or at Cat 1 status. We'll see... But as far as what happens going forward, there is only one real larger -scaled synoptic factor the bears resemblance to Sandy and it is - as far as I can tell - related to that blocking node behavior as mentioned above.

Something like that ... it's like the models want to track the vestigial cyclonic axis along, or perhaps just west of that demarcation, and these satellite trends symbolically railway it

I think it is interesting to see this kind of clearing deformation stalled N-S from eastern VT to eastern CT ( ~). Yesterday was just the same. We are partly/mostly sunny here with temps nearing 80 with DPs in the 60s around home sites east of said axis, and this was also a semi-consistent arrangement of circumstances yesterday, too.

I must be having an off-morning with cerebral processing ... what does this bold statement have to do with anything - I keep fielding these kind of sentiments from folks and they don't bear any logic to the present.

Yeah... this - for me - can be inferred by other modeling/means anyway... no problem with that assessment and notice - even though it is still just a notice and not porn yet. Again again again... the limitations in such a scenario are in the speed in which that happens. It can't meander on up. It has to move FAST Folks that need this diversion to make their lives worth shit ... really need to filter everything through that requirement first and not focus on the pretty illustrations of the modeling cinema like drug addicts carpet surfacing for a nugget of dystopian rush -

I lean (haha) toward suspicion with the entire Euro product- suite. Systemic limitation in performance - Not initializing right. ...seems anything after that is academically wrong

The turn of phrasing you cobble out is strange to me ... It's emotional - and I am a sociopath so I can't really understand that mode of thinking.... LOL Totally kidding. Seriously though, no - that shit doesn't matter. There is no 'mentally encountering untenable outcomes' - whatever that means. I suspect it is intended to mean 'taking place whether it fit with preconception or not'? I dunno, but there is only: Is there enough physics to support a cyclone or not - Nothing else. Now... 'peak climatology for shelf waters' yeeeeah, okay. If they are warmer than cooler, that "should" in principle play a factor. But that is real ambiguous in the physics, because I - personally - don't know of any science that outright evinces that 66 vs 70 vs 74 vs 78 are better in that order, for maintaining systemic integrity of tropical cyclones that egress their supporting environment and set out upon their Death Journey like a Hopi octogenarian

wouldn't take much tho - If by mere subtle total mechanical inertia in the surrounding synoptic forcing, sending Henri on up, were to occur, that sending may speed up by a little. It could just be enough - so obviously, in assessing the impact spectrum would be the speed of Henri's motion. More gets more cyclone-winds to bend tree tops ..etc. Also, as others are undoubtedly focused on like a 17-year old boy on a v-cut prom date's reveal, the run to run trend has been gaining westerly longitude. If it comes another 100 miles at verification and speeds up by 10 mph - unusual for how it does so in total synoptic space or not, that would get more interesting really fast.

Okay... correction 1: GFS does not actually strengthen Henri as it approaches the S. Coast and passes over the shelf waters S of LI. It is in fact, weakening, as it should, while passing the cyclone over those cold waters. That helps engender confidence that it is physically handling the total manifold of environmental factors in the intensity aspects. However, I can aver with confidence that TC's in the weakening phase - such that the GFS's recent two cycles does so spanning some 12 hours worth - typically lift their "storm" ferocity above the land-based boundary layer. It is very necessary for storm enthusiasts to have these moving very fast as they approach, quite literally because they do not have enough time to do that weakening prior to impacting land. This system is moving too slowly based on that climate... It will suck GIANT ballz for deterministic weather forecasters because now we get into residuals ...like still flooding rains and tor spins.