Typhoon Tip

Thanks yeah I was kind a hoping for the hemisphere of you LOL but yeah I know about tropical. I’ll look around at the others

Mm you have an interesting spin engine runnin over there. “Sick” of anything means not emotionally invested .. it means I don’t care about it anymore. Not really there yet I’m just saying I’m getting close Besides actually start checking out around mid February anyway… I start to feel the sun coming back and I don’t like to wrestle with inevitability once I sense those changes in the environment I’m ready for the next season almost immediately I change on a dime very quickly. Having said that I am also aware that we have big huge events clear into the first week of April - we all have our demons I suppose. But I feel advantage in that sense because I can always jump on the bandwagon if the system is going to be significant enough

Word ! I’m just wondering if it’s a shape thing but not so much in terms of the z-coordinate. I mean the gradient matters… Too much… Too little. And and if the holes in the atmosphere too deep relativity to hills that’s too much of a good thing ... contrasting if the holes are too shallow and the ridges aren’t that tall might end up with something like we have now. Perhaps having the right shape might be all we can hope for at this range anyway

Is there a free source ?

You realized you just doomed May-ta two flurry CAAs and a synoptic slushee for that insolence

Seriously ...what's the return rate on warm yummy Aprils ? I think 1 in 20 maybe, or ? Really not sure. I remember ... I think it was 2008 or perhaps 2010... Actually, I think we had three back to back to back years of impressively mild springs around then, but one of them...man, half the deciduous species were three quarters leafed out by Easter ... and the lawns were like melon mowed aroma three cycles in ... Girls actually looked at me - some kind of Disney alls swell thing was the air and all sins had been absolved... Now, contrast that relative utopia with the rectal glue we got stuck in for 7 years in f'n row now ... I hate April - what can I say

Getting kinda sick of this winter already too -

Vroooom - it's called 'sarcasm' ? For the record I agree...it's an attenuating factor ...not 0 - never meant to explicitly state that. Rather, that it is buried inside a large expansion of the HC where it is becoming less able to disperse and force the westerlies as readily as half a century back ... By the way, while on the subject... I'm beginning to suspect the MJO is suffering less influence because it's wave presentation is also trapped - in their weekly PDFs put out, the bullet headers are routinely stating that the waves are being destructively interfered with. I noted they made this comment during the last warm event(s) too... Discussion for climate/winter outlooks perhaps tho

Way more than one would hope, huh - lol.. Btw, I'm beginning to wonder if this -AO is really bootlegged off a huge axial tilted PV that's oddly displaced if not pulled off the pole into into a violently +WPO ...Sort of like Japan's version of a 1993-1994 -NAO ... but obviously covering a considerably larger area. Looking at this, that's a probably the most powerful linear windfield on this planet since the impact that create the moon out there in western Pac: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html What also strikes me is how abandoned we are over on our side of the hemisphere of any PV signature ...prtty much at all. We're left in utter entropy of pattern with warbling convoluted spaghetti over here ... in case no one's noticed. I mean...we're trying time and place objects in space with this f'titude? good luck... I don't think this is sans the HC as much as it is sans anything frankly - just weird. Brian pretty much get the post award for this page on that statement - not much else to be added haha

2015 was dead in the water at this point in time, too - .. heh And, since we've at last proven that the ENSO has no meaning any longer, we have just as much chance of something like that happening based on randomality at this point... weeeeee

Funny .. I was just taking note of both the GEPs and GEFs ensemble spread and in both cases, the only uncertainty is along the axis of motion on out to sea... Heh, you can speed 'er up or slow 'er down, but you ain't gettin' 'er no closer

Plenty of cold in the hemisphere but ..yeah, the 500 mb - yah know - it looks like the engine that mechanizes the whole of the circulation eddy is nauseated - like ...sick. I have seen Chinook patterns before but that's really an anomalous variant of that... You know what that looks like ? It looks like a 1936 heat wave circulation - it's just doing it in the winter version. fascinating - strange

Yeah I’m sure. thing is it doesn’t always happen or is as noticeable. Other times it dearths a region

It does ... sure... I was just musing to Will in that blown up storm thread ... read that - it sort of offers some perspective. Namely, if faced with the same hemispheric look in the models, as they were selling ( and trends prior notwithstanding...), the whole of it would be wise to consider a more favorable outcome for snow and at least impact of some kind. This was weirdly nuanced 'wiggles' in the NAO down the stretch, weak-ish S/W mechanical forcing in the flow. Idiosyncratic if you will -. Altogether it didn't 'synergize' a better outcome - sort of defeated the original layout of potential.. it happens -

Yeah..I thought we were slated for that last night frankly. I thought there was a decent shot we'd awake to some 4- 5" 'reach-around' gratification, to alleviate the total "bust" complexion of this ordeal but, ha! Even that got stripped away - wow... I don't know, crawling Pac waves up underneath a western limbed -NAO was supposed to pay off a week ago, and frankly if faced with that again ...we'd probably be best to favor a better outcome - we would. But it just doesn't break in favor this time. The governing players and parameters at the hemispheric scope supported more. Alas! Details got in the way. Like, the fact that the Pac waves are too weak really. The NAO situated less than 'as ideally' as modeled days ago... nuances - So, having seen this result this morning I'm now more inclined to go with your bust characteristic ( I think it was you ? ) or whomever mentioned that last night. At the time I was hesitant because I was waiting out those PA/S NY returns which as I think you hinted, it's kind of odd to awaken and see that did nothing here ... I think I see why though - We used to call the 'lift/RH robbing' up at UML ... part of Miller B where they carry a dark dagger that sometimes back stabs. It's when lift/ongoing action associated with a primary comes into PA...then, the secondary takes off E of the Del Marva. Its new lift and inflow cuts off and robs the primary ... New shield evolves associated with the secondary, and what this does in total is it 'gaps' the total event and sometimes, that gap places SNE in it. This at least hints as having something like this take place. Considering the 4-6" results out there, then seeing this CCB head flirting with the Cape now.

Sort of in agreement here ... ( just using your post as a launch pad - am aware no one cares... ) Kind of a broad-stroked perspective but given the past 20 years ? considering the lion's share of snow verification did not take place in a -NAO, and were in fact Pac guided, then adding that this recent NAO's handling: those two aggregated facets = f* this man None of that lends to even wanting to engage in this as a hobby at this time. Ha, can you imagine the professional that is by trade, forced to examine and eat the shit of this pattern? I mean the poor schmuck - LOL I just would rather swipe the eraser lever on this drawing toy known as Internet weather charts... and start a brand new paradigm. If that means returning to the faster flow, progressive needle threading, so be it. We had better productivity that other way. No but seriously ... it seems this convoluted pattern/nebularity isn't handled very well. That Euro 00z cannot be resolved - even by that particular model's touted acumen and monstrosity of daunting complexity built in, that's a convoluted exercise in fractal apoplexy it's trying to manage in the D5-10. And given its own recent performance during this pattern ( *relative to just that regime ) ... well, it's beyond its wheelhouse anyway. What leaps out at me through it all... the PNA - go wonder ... Pac guided ... we just can't seem to pop a western ridge/+PNAP expression, which is needed for basic wave position mechanical arguments.

It’s snowing out; is that a bust? I’ll definitely go with a disappointment ... it won’t clock 16” ... probably be 2-4 which was on the table as an option in this. A bust is a snowstorm that ends up a rainstorm. A bust is a blizzard warning that you wake up and it’s orb sun 9°F with flurries. objectively we really didn’t have enough to make a definitive call. It’s like we were in a favorable governing parametric look all week and it just didn’t come to avail of it

Lol ... don’t worry. No matter how much one disdains winter ...rest assuredly, July is still coming.

James ... it’s weak with modest mechanics. There’s proportionately modest rad and ground truth returns. it’s no mystery. Weird things can happen but convention and reason isn’t giving anything more.

Prolly getting 24 hrs of appeal outa this so ‘always look on the bright side of your life’ aspects still look entertaining with a steady diet of pac waves - may just be a numbers game ... 8th-12th still on the table and there’s the 14th too

Yeah I confused you by using the expression ‘useful to us’ ... really the impetus there was just the NAO handling alone. ...but if the blocking were batter positioned it may parlay your next system there. Which could be okay anyway ... just sayn’

Sorry ... models pos‘ed their way up to this “-NAO” which I put in quotes because this? is not a very convincingly useful block ... Its S displaced so far it’s really more like a a ‘north based subtropical ridge.’ I do however believe if the 1/4 system was deeper mechanically rooted it would have fed into that and perhaps modulate more of D. Str vicinity ... Short of that/either way that’s not a good look

I know ... like that said ...it's delayed - just the crucial amount. I'd also suggest that if this wave coming through rolled out better lead S/W ridging, it would have enticed western aspect of the NAO to emerge faster - positive feedback. I think that's what the previous guidance was doing, having subtly over assessed this they may helped that along. Chicken and egg sorta relationship perhaps...

This is actually a fantastic observation, likely unsung. It pertains to the NAO handling. What you are observing there is an NAO .... NOT blocking. heh - Bad deteministic handling of NAO comes in three delicious migraines: Where; amplitude; when. None of these were handled well enough in this situation leading. But, forgetting the frustration in not getting this event and keeping it purely Vulcan ( haha ), there were two factors that doomed this: -- the NAO handling above -- the system itself being too weak to mechanize it's own stall And what's interesting is that these two can feed off one another and ( sort of ) 'synergize' a more favorable result. But being a weak system, and then NAO delaying another 24 to 42 hours to blossom blocking - if one goes back three or four days, you might see that it was slightly faster and more aggressive in the guidance. Have you ever heard the expression, 'the hurricane creates its own environment'? Something similar.. If the system were stronger as it was arriving, it would roll out it's own S/W ridging. That would then move up and super-impose over the emerging -NAO; we call that a 'constructive wave interference,' and in the advent of that, the two then synergize a stall sooner .. it all feeds back this thing would have gone boom, stalled... I think some of the models had this thing over assessed, and that was causing some of that to paint erroneously on the charts when this was mid range... I've actually noticed that mid and extended range events are being routinely over amped in all the models.. interesting. I actually think - personally - another problem in model handling is that the flow has gone too far in the relaxed direction. We replaced too much velocity and progressive shearing tendencies, with a nebular chaos where entropy is large - well..."entropy" means disarray and when we see the flow features propagating along with only two or maybe three dz height lines and are curling around everywhere like a spaghetti on plate.ugh. Thing is, luck is involved. I mean, either a nebular or progressive regime can have entertaining events in the runs breaking good or bad.

Bingo ... Yeah, I was just musing that in the blown up storm thread, how the NAO seems to be shirking/'back-stabbing' on that previous look. I speculate as the PNA emerges we'll start seeing the velocities ( all around ) speed up again. ...Not sure why it is important to know that - maybe it's because I don't like storm prospecting in fast flows.. personal bias. Sorry lol.