Typhoon Tip

When/if anyone re-engages with this thread.. . That's an impressive non-hydrostatic heat signal in the operational GFS extending across some four or even five days ...from ~ Tue thru next Sun The Euro has it too, but ...it also ripples a blocking/ridge node through the flow, over southern Canada .., with more amplitude and this feature piles up a surface high that interrupts it. But the D8 to 10 looks hot afterward. This has been really been in the guidance for some time but obviously ..Henri's held attention spans captive. We are late in the season for big heat. Obviously we've seen 90 to 100 in early September, so history demo's it is not impossible. But it is getting notable to have +17 to +20 850 MB air over the southern Lakes, lower OV and M/A regions, should the oper. GFS near historic 500 mb non-hydro heights over top. We are past the solar max, so we need less clouds ...favorable wind directions and so on to not interfere.

Yup ... relishing in the storm-lusty 28 mph winds while the cloud elements streak by a 58 -

for folks E and N of ORH... I'm almost wondering if the skies and conditions actually improve later this afternoon and even get some sun splashing and clearing streets.

It wasn't a difficult insight to gather, just conceptually leading this, yup - then seeing it charted ... pretty much should have K0ed enthusiast's expectations for drama LOL ..so to speak ..

Heard about that...wow. no good -

I wonder what the winds are off the deck. Some of us outlined the idea that stability in the region may 'lift' the cyclonic disk of Henri above... As I was mentioning to Brian a while back, it seems we did have some bit of a NE invasion of slightly cooler air overnight. My lofty DPs abandoned by down, in 68/66 here, which really falls the air beneath a lighter tropical quality/buoyancy sounding type. If this air mass is/were/gotten entrained S into the pressure well as Henri was approaching overnight, than it's not impossible to imagine this thing is more decoupled from the surface then we may presently be considering - not that anyone isn't, per se heh. But Block Island's winds seem low for that pressure approach. Maybe also because it is nearing the center/axis or ... what's left of an eye in some stretch of the imagination, too

Yeah ... I as noticing putsin' around this morning how the air mass quality really changed since yesterday. It was 87/76 here... It's like we had a BD late August style - this air feels like a September nor'easter, where the SST are still lofty so the "cold" conveyor has a relative balm? It really feels exactly like that to me. I used to live at the eastern tip of Cape Ann/Rockport. We'd have misty light rain [ September ] and clapping chop coming into the Harbor under grayish sheets, and you could go swimming in the tourist abandoned shore waters; the water felt warmer than the air. ...you know, teenagers... Anyway, this air mass, if it didn't smell like the ocean this day, for being this far inland, it's the only thing that's different. I just thought it interesting. Yesterday was calmly ominous. Today looks like a typical New England rainy pall - Rad and sat look like it's opening up and core collapsing - not that it ever really garnered the latter. So whether it is or isn't merely a nice early nor'easter homage, it is one -

Way inland in N Middlesex/Rt 2: R/R-. Thunder has occurred twice in the last 1/2 hr. 68F ... Look at rad and sat, this is an arcing outer band as it pivots through. We damp but not raining an hour ago. Breeze is light but enough to rustle the trees.

Oh, the endemic idiocy is far more encompassing than just those of Conservative identity ... but, probably we should just not go down the rabbit hole in an already "disappointed" contributor, tropical powder-keg thread. LOL.

It's a land falling TS ... it's got a whole spectrum of threats and concerns with it that need obvious attention.

...welcome to "weather forum-sphere" when it comes to anything tropical. I've been staying sort of clear this morning. I may drive-bye pot shot some statements to occasionally, just to keep the rage smoldering - haha... But seriously, going all the way back to Wright Weather... then Eastern, and since over the last 10 years in this social media, who knows why but tropical weather monitoring always tended to conjure bad behavior and/or erosion of "internet congeniality" with far greater proficiency than the run-o-the-mill thread purpose. - said congeniality completely escapes inside of 10 pages of content, most typically. I credit ours for remaining more civil? But that is probably owing to the fact that there isn't as much foot traffic in a "New England Tropical" anything, for obvious reasons.

Sat and rad give me the impression that over the last 45 minutes or so Henri's approach is slowing down. Some times these are just wobbles and time will tell, but 'wobbling' is usual a sign that a course correction is about to take place, too. I don't know. I was just musing to self ... if this thing stalled off Montauk having never actually made landfall ... like anywhere? Then it limps east as it dies .. that might be the most deliciously hysterical result yet -

Quite the outflow channel established towards the New Jersey coast Best divergent structure I’ve seen in association with this tropical cyclone at any point along its history frankly i’m almost wondering if some of those early models were mistaking that as a steering field maybe they had it too deep in the troposphere and that’s why they were pulling it to the northwest It might account for some of the pressure falls what goes out has to come in and the thunderstorms are exploding around it right now right in concert with that Heck maybe it’ll give it an intensity boost as it slingshots north towards Rhode Island and Easter ma. Oops

Really appears to me that the sensitivity in the models in the west vs east is almost entirely been connected to the storm's intensity - Sronger has majority west solutions, vs weaker east. I 'think'/suspect that is related to the total vertical integration; more so is more entangle with the cutting trough ..less allows it to partially escape capture and ends up farther up the coast. Fascinating - If this does "quasi" RI for a stint and makes it into the init of the evening runs, might be interesting to see that east trend stops at that point and this stabilizes - or if it even goes back west a tick or two.

These are shweeet images! Are these in house... I found goes 16 web site but I haven't taken the moment yet to ferret through that site.

i've come to find it's usually the other way around but stereotyped trope scenario I suppose

Anyway ... ... again, just because this may not end up category 2, doesn't make it ignore-able. Not that anyone is... straw man. We'll have to see how the system maintains over the shelf waters there- but TS winds are dramatic enough. And as we've noted, the ground being fairly hydro loaded and easterly /or SE wind gusts tend to be a vulnerable wind direction for foliage even before that. SO, that climo with wet gound... Plus, we probably are going have a tor watch issued across the region at some point. So, it's a fun day man - let it unfold Hey is anyone else getting the NGRID texts on their phones?

What about a grid challenging winter storm at a mean return rate of 5 threats a winter or whatever it is... I realize your point and agree, but I'm just mentioning that snark because it's not a tough counter-argument to ferret out along 40 N and the same bs maintenance lapsing has taken place up here - oh, not as bad, perhaps.

Yeah, that and also ...I caught up with the retired Journeyman and had this conversation since - He was agreeing it is mostly a maintenance thing, but .. he said demographic/population swelling has augmented the negative aspect of bad maintenance. He's an old school republican - so it was interesting to hear him then say, ".. back before all these utilities became privately owned, this wasn't a problem so much..." He later extolled that money flowing is the rapacious goal and maintenance cost/takes a bit chunk out of that goal, so ... some argumentatives there... whatever. But, he was also right about the fact that technology has not kept pace. I mean ...humanities brain trust and capacity in general could have made power infrastructure almost indestructible - this 'advancing tech' to make thing better, is a virtue that stopped when cash for power began... so it seems. Some people want specific data to prove everything reality so taken for what it is worth. Typically, when it quacks like a duck, it's a duck - follow the money, usually finds the cause of lapses.

Oh I LOVE that cross-over product! man...geeks dream. That's really pretty cool

I wonder if that's a quasi PRE axis arcing off the Del Marv/L.I. there.

Yeah... I tend to agree with Scott here. Looks like the window shut on this ordeal. Snowgoose69 was good to mention yesterday, ... ya know, the last 20 .. 30 years, seems we've fielded these slow astride the coast coughing systems and it really is true, in just about every one of them that I can recall ...the lead modeling tried to bomb them ( in relative measure - strengthen markedly tho) as it was lifting. 0 for what ... 7 of 'em. Now, past blah blah doesn't depict the future ..but one is dumb not to learn from it, or they will repeat. That's the rub. Lol. But in this case, it's like we need the title of next ordeal to say, "Model's lying about a deepening a TC" and then let ourselves be wrong before this bs will ever allow us to be right. I'm partially kidding. But I do believe there is something to the models consistently attempting to do this and we end up with pedestrian sort of light to moderate impactors. We'll see what now cast reveals this evening ... ( If that doesn't trigger this thing to suddenly strengthen to category 2 or 3 ...) nothing will.

Mm ..apologies if this rubs the wrong way but the general polish of not being exceptionally strong and probably more susceptible to stability parameters N of the G-stream as limiting impact ( likely..), are equally as impressive.. But that's just me -

heh ... no argument from me.. I've pounded this cold water/stability -related stuff for days, sensing the futility in doing so, finally gave up... mostly - ... I think most that are versed know that and sort of table it and wait it out. They don't want that to limit, but they don't argue it either. What this fugger really needed for the enthusiasts is factor or two more intensity moving much much faster. We've hit on the notion that it is neither, too and also ...gave up. Lol

Yeah... I have a neighbor who is a retired "Journeymen" - that's grid's old-school title for line guys. I can ask.. These may in fact be the factors as you outline. It's interesting to parse that out - I mean... electricity doesn't care ( heh ) where it goes. Population is big and too big, no doubt, but in a sense, if the grid matures along with it, ...doesn't matter. That logic tends to indict the maintenance. Which "maintenance" is kind of a loaded term. It's not just cleaning up after a storm. Obviously where I am going with this, it's as much preventative. Maybe if the ethic was there, it's thus not being complacent, and continuing to develop new technologies ...etc...etc. and there becomes a lot of complexity to what maintenance really "should" mean. But you look out there, you see the same cables strung between poles like I remember when I was kid back when the dinosaurs roamed...