Typhoon Tip

well, I may not be remembering that conversation exactly right then, either - very good! 2 for 2 lol Or, I am remembering the conversation right, but I didn't understand what you were really asking before .. there's that too - Whatever was said then versus now,... I don't know how the La Nina would be augmented or not by the HC expansion stuff... I am speculating both aspects there - it could just mute the whole works the same amount ( which is why I said No before ...I remember that - ) but, I cannot be certain. I admit we're hypothesizing here - I do agree that it superimposes over the HC in constructive way so ..mm, that's tough. My problem with the ENSO stuff is that it only forces through the realization of hemispheric seasonal gradient... It's just this simple ( arithmetic concept): If the HC pushes too far away from the NINAs and NINO ...they don't disperse as readily, because they are being cut off from the gradient - which ends up displaced N where the HC rim terminates into the westerlies. It's that simple - the ENSO gets cut off from the party be inclusion in the HC- Either way, I think we can agree that the aN erstwhile forced -AO cap over top, at least offers an interesting final chapter to winter.

We'll probably have to field at least once historic hyper bomb in the models - It seems hard to run a depressed AO against a tapestry of HC shit ...and the la-Nina gradient patterns, without extraordinary potential always in reach. You don't like to put the gas can next to the window pain, at the back of the garage, when there books of half used matches collecting dust near by... It'll be a fast mover... fetus circulation near Atlanta Georgia gets confused with a Miller B clipper from cryo hell sporing a 57 v-max fisting over WV ... 947 mb low passing 20 M E of ACK - the first time ever an extra-tropical ISE ever did at that particular lat/lon.... Probably the last thing that happens before mid to late February green -up lol... The two phase - Alas, that's on D9 in the Euro... so ... it has sooo much physical numerical instability in the guidance that it actually lasts into the next day of runs ...tho slightly less in form... 955 .. Then, the GFS-Parapellegic throws the bone... but mysterially, it all loses out to a just a -10 at 850 mb cold whack when it's D6 and Ray's reminding us all how Baseball pitchers and catchers report, while Scott thinks we don't suspect him smoldering in his protracted form of a meltdown while he floats tactically hard to prove troll efforts ... Then, it all comes screaming back at 72 hours out...but it's a more "sensible" 963 mb bomb ...but notice it's still historic... and it's even slower a little, because as we near, the compensating physics of deep z-coordinate lows ( for some reason ) slowing against the flow, is seen more readily by nearer termed modeling solutions. ... End result... dust fins around tree trunks at DC with 40" from TTN to PWM .... Everything I just characterized I plagiarized from Jame's scary book without even reading it - I'm pretty sure.... No, but I do in all seriousness get the feeling that we check into some volatility realization out there.

Yeah... I guess that's what it was, Ray - right... Which I don't disagree.. It's like superposition of factors ( telecon convergence in a sense? though not exactly the same - ) and as folks probably know who've suffered by my diatribes with endurance and grace ...I am a big fan of synergistic concepts. Having La Nina circulation on top of a HC expansion... is a huge constructive interference scheme at a global scale - Heh.. I also want to point out a discussion you and I had back ...jeez I guess it was August? You were asking me over the main forum ENSO thread if the same muting happens with the La Nina...I remember telling you I wasn't sure...Because of what Will was intimating, frankly. It would be really hard to separate the two because they sort of mimic one another... The HC would have higher concomitant easterly trade as mass loading/balancing for enhanced westerlies over top... well., what does that sound like - Not sure how to parse those two factors apart. I think the path of least resistance there is to just go with them as tag teaming.... That's why if you are a snow lover/cold/winter enthusiast...and you have looked on this SSW with mockery and ridicule, you may wan't to don in shit-eating bib and shut the f up because ...heh, you're gonna need it ..So, what I mean is ... the La Nina climo may be a part of Feb but sort of nested in the maelstrom of an already busy hemisphere... so what's the difference. The difference "might" be... forcing of the PV circulation eddy into mid latitudes. Could be fun -

Hhheh... No - look, "IF" we can positively confirm the downwelling/propagation of the SSW, it will modulate the AO downward as historical reference hugely correlates. Regardless of whether that pays cold ( and eventual snow...blah blah ) dividends over on our side of the hemisphere, notwithstanding - it will likely mean a neutralized(ing) or negative AO in general. That product would need to be integrating those top down effects, which won't begin to take place for another 7 to 10 days. That's when the tongue of the warming layers flicks and mixes into the polar tropopause...and only then does the PV begin to reel - if it does. I have two problems with that product/EPS as he's twitted: 1 ... because of everything I said above, I doubt the EPS' physical parameterization and daily runs are even aware or getting any of that future into the equations ... We're looking at a model brain that is unaware of these outside --> arriving future augmentor(s). 2 ... even without the SSW and AO link stuff... I'm not even certain the La Nina February climo succeeds. I don't wanna get into a whole Hadley Cell expose' again.. but I like the way Will paraphrased it the other night when he said to me, '.. whether we consider you HC muting the ENSO stance or not, it still isn't a good thing to have La Nina ...' ... The last major ENSO events.. also demoed less registry around the World's known climate pathways where it is known to cause havoc. The muting of the ENSO effect ...does not mean the ENSO isn't happening. I wonder if folks have trouble disconnecting those two... The La Nina could rage on ...and the AO could do what it did this lasts month anyway. I wonder if those EPS are weighted somehow in deference -

Yeah.. no... feb 8 is the 40N end of perennial solar nadir... From that point until ..I think May 8 it's transition, then of course May 8 to Aug 8 is solar max. That's why I am particularly arnery when April is stolen by cold mirk.. I mean, you're like a month from max sun and it's 38F sure... go for it. Cloudy with NE drifting boney cryo fingers from that c-note bitch up N - finally! arriving - the -NAO . ... seems to routinely bend over our springs in recent years. I swear, if I had my financial druthers I'd own a 2nd home in western California ( sans the Pandemic...) and hope for Geological events for entertainment ...say, March 24th through May 8th - and May is negotiable as that month can sometimes blow donkey dong too... Last year was absolutely horrific frankly. I saw 2 snow flurry afternoons and a synoptic slush event ... I mean... three times? That transcends mere fluke. Anyway, I won't start trolling winter geese until Feb 8th or so... that's when Kevin and Scotts bums start heating up in parked cars more officially...

It is spectacular ... It has the non-acclimation of 'fake warmth' feel to it. Still nice. No wind. Also, even tho it's only been what ... 3 weeks since the Solstice the sun ever so slightly already feels warmer in open sky beaming like today. I would run 6 miles outside but alas...f'ed up my calf muscle a couple weeks ago and I've been doing gym machine stuff instead. Such drag getting old -

Polar lows are a marine mesoscale phenomenon - though certainly it's plausible that one could 'drift' landward. I've seen one on lake Ontario actually. I'm not certain they can't formulate over land, but they do need to have that certain sounding set up - i.e., very cold air/CAA passing over open heat source/interfacing and the sounding is very unstable. What I posted ...it's not abundantly clear that's what those are, but they sure fit the physical description < 1000 km diameter with very tightly nucleated pressure wells... CAA with lingering DPVA in cyclonic trajectory, "behind" the primary polar baroclinic passage/sfc trough. They are smaller in scale - hence "meso beta-scale" - which is denoted with Meso B in lit I believe.. but are really meso scale systems. Those in that image meet the criteria .. Jim's deal was regular synoptic cyclone ...but as Scott/or whom else may have mentioned, it was plumbed through syrup blue - which is kind of a weird actually. I had read of thundersnow ...comes from different mechanisms.... Lake Squalls can do that... But TROWALs and CSI ...so forth. But usually they freezing WB is somewhere involved so that you have phase change nuclie and charge differentiation ...blah blah... It's like the top 1/2 of a CB tower lowered down. But Jim's storm ...I thought that one was pretty cold ... interesting

Hey Will ... I bet if we could do some sort of discriminative phase analysis of that 366 hour, 12z operational GFS ...those to meso-beta scaled cyclones ( one near Boston Light, the other SW of NS) might actually bear resemblance of "Arctic lows" - or polar lows ... two of them no less! That's gotta be what those are considering the total synoptic parameterization leading/during... That's amazing if bears out because I don't know if I've ever seen a global numerical guidance source actually depict that phenomenon - https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/2/bams-d-18-0103.1.xml WHAT IS A POLAR LOW? A definition of a polar low was given by the European Polar Low Working Group in 1994 (see Heinemann and Claud 1997): the term “polar mesoscale cyclone” (polar mesocyclone) is the generic term for all meso-α- and meso-β-scale cyclonic vortices poleward of the main polar front (horizontal scale of 20–2,000 km). The term “polar low” should be used for intense maritime mesocyclones with scales up to about 1,000 km with a near-surface wind speed exceeding 15 m s–1.

Lol, ...kinda like how I feel about cloudy and still calm stagnant 39 F Aprils -

Damn - .. I don't think we got the teleconnectors updated overnight. They're late this morning still, and PSU E-wall didn't update the individual members, either. Too bad, because the operational GFS, Euro and to perhaps 20 or so % lesser extend, the operational GGEM ...all indicate a rather robust regime change after D6 ... That D6 system is still in the works but it's like 40 to 50% chance ( the way leading indicators/modeling situates as of now mind you..), for a low end climo coastal. The bigger deal may evolve toward the Ides of the month, in association with said regime change. But I'd like to see the weight of the tele's behind that. For what it's worth the EPS mean clearly reflects at least some Continental troughing with modest negative anomalies situated D8-9-10 of the 00z cycle - that's probably construed as a enthusiastic headnod in favor. So.. the regime in question is an apparent +PNA or 'westerly-biased' +PNA ... some varient there in. But the PNAP does get into a mid latitude western N/A ridge. The EPO is not really showing signs of modulating negative in these same runs, however. That makes sense, as those leading mass field drivers are not really in line - those being ...a caving WPO transmitting through the NP ... be nice if there was west Pac typhoon to help but...the +WPO look out there appears hemispherically anchored ... not sure we're going to see a change there -

Heh if I did ( and I think I recall being sardonic in jest ) it was the first time in months. Not something I normally engage in no - Figured maybe somebody flew off the handle because of that stuff going on yesterday

Was there some kinda mega political death threat blowout or something - what’s with the banner warning ..

What’s likely to happen with much greater certainty is the ongoing -AO may eventually precede a cold event prior and unrelated, and the consortium will falsely blame the pattern as rooted in the SSW .... and I will be exceedingly annoyed

Not when it’s two week (minimum) from effecting any AO modulation ... which predates any tropospheric awareness by that much, and more, time. In other words it’s completely invisible to the models that only handle the troposphere because it’s not even in the troposphere yet; interact with the tropopause and that begins to interact in 10 days to two weeks and then there’s yet more time for the AO to completely respond we’re talking about probably the first week of February for this particular SSW maybe the last week of January

But don't - please - group me in with those SSW abusers ... I've never pushed that as a very dependable device for much other than indirectly, with AO modulation and so forth ... But, that can and I have said so many times, mean anything. I just said so up there - -AO could come and go, and be hidden inside a neggie hemmy and we don't really notice it. Or, it could force a -AO ..but the conveyors setup and offload somewhere else because of just where the blocking happens to orient... There is almost 0 predictive skill in using SSW --> -AO to predict specific weather phenomenon ...and I haven't actually seen any formal reviewed work that correlates it to snow... temperature patterning is implicit, sure. From that I suppose we can infer there must be a correlation - duh...cold ...snow ? right - But, distribution is different every time and not ubiquitous as far as I'm aware. It's like a adding vanilla to the cake mix - it's not absolutely necessary and it might help it taste yummier.

Alleluia !! Finally we have the GDAS on the same page for this damn thing ... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2021.png We did mention that they may update the system when 000/Holiday traffic returned to office well I'll be! wow... Yeah, so that is a SSW... no question... And, I have a lot of experience with following these over the years, and I can tell just by looking at the contouring as that is emerging...that is downwelling as the emergence will probably show. Not 100% sure of that ...but that appears based on historical referencing like it will show a node ...probably in the 50 to 70 sigma levels... Then, again out toward week two in the 100 ...so on and so on... Having said that, the AO/ .. PV response/correlation is not today. It is not next week... In fact, it may only start to effect the stability of the PV verticality by the end of week two... At which time ( probably...) the guidance et al will be flagging either another -AO, ...or, a revitalized one. Thing is, I have seen a couple of cases of -AO ... lost in the din of a -AO winter. I think I read tweet from someone who mentioned that it could be 'merging' with ongoing other shit, recently - boo yah to whomever did because ... yeah that happens. In either case, 20 days is the standard lag correlation for thus who are interested ( probably Will from what I've gathered...heh ) Having said all this part dieux .. As any would-be PV break- down or ...failure to break up leads to a new break down ...whatever, any blocking could favor cold hemispheric conveyors over in Euras and Russian... keep that in mind. We could have a nice SSW --> -AO circuit and end up not getting it here until the Global wave numbers rotated on around just in time for April through June... kidding Another way to detect the legitimacy of SSW ...as it relates to the plausible slowinging of the PV circulation eddy... is the U-coordinate wind anomaly, which shows up nicely in tandem with this the emergence in the thermal layout..

don't get me started

Prediction: ... Joe B's out there will put out dire warning blogs and tweets over the next coming days ... topical? the cryo-dystopian civility crisis about to befall N/A. This will be based purely upon the 50/50 odds method

I get the feeling if anything happens in the next 2 weeks, no model or derivative, at present time, will be right - either wrong, or dumb f'n lucky. Even ... whatever it is that is driving the group-think for a better 2nd half of month - those signals, too, completely phantom. I don't think there's "really" anything there... These are all no track-back-able pieces of computer enhanced bullshit we've been looking at and tracking... Whether individual features or events, or the pattern layouts. I've never seen so many phantom mid/extended range runs -... and no, that's also considering standard error. I don't think it's a metric anyone keeps track of, or formulates for that matter, but I think it would be an interesting study to rank all negative model performance eras. Like the SD of error, ...then, all those particularly god-awful piece of shit times where the models are just spraying dung at canvas, say... the "Great -10 SD model performance era of January 2021" ... I have watched closely for five days and have watched one of two things, only: Either wave in flow vanished entirely... or is crimped and damaged FUBAR compared to whatever individual or consensus had thought when they first mapped 'em. It's like why run geo-physical computations at all - they're just guessing. Purely for determinism, it's pretty annoying ... The GEFs AO/NAO handling just oscillated literally ( not figuratively...) from -4 and -1.5 respectively, to 0, to now -2 and -2 respectively, in just three nights. The whole ballast of the membership mind us - ... That's a fantastic indictment on that systemic monitoring - wow Great ..I'm on the 8th edit of this post - sorry... But, I don't see how any of this last ... 5 f'n years for that matter, really lends confidence in anyone's thinking for a candied end of month. But, that means it could, if just going by equal probability for either -

Aside ...bothering a quick and dirty NAO check, here's the Euro 24-hour from 12z this morning. So tomorrow morning - Notice the lack of -NAO up in the actual NAO ? D'oh! It really more than merely seems that the models "miss-took" ( to keep it brief ...) a lack of real R-wave structure as a blocking regime. Perhaps there is some 'vestigial' sort of -NAOness to that mess up there...But, if you go back several days ( so 4 ...? ) and look at the model(s) et al for that this period of time this week, they clearly had intended a better discerned and structured blocking ridge in the height layout up there... That? up there?? that's not it - Either way, I don't think the NAO was handled - if this is even a -NAO... I almost wonder if it's really just the absence of patternization --> entropy in the field.

It'd be a pretty remarkable accomplishment to suffer a droughty January - as in a whole month in Winter - for suffering negative wave interference alone - Any scenario that is destructively wave -interfering should be just a rare as the same period that is constructively interfering ... so, sustaining either for that whole time - yes it can happen ... 2015 was 5 weeks of constructive interference. But, either at that length is still rare so... Consolation is that dds are we line something up at some point. Probably does little to appease the trembles of psychotropical weather chart withdrawals ... but, one should have fall back hobbies in the interim. Heh... Seriously though, I suspect we wanna sans this -NAO and I see that happening when the flow speeds up.. We may get into other headaches/return to those...when that happens, but nickle dime events moving from Dallas to Heathrow at ludicrous speed at least all but guarantees one does not have to wait long to get their next fix - Not speaking for the EPS but this whole time... for that last 2 weeks through today and modeled out to the edge of visible tele-cosmos, the PNA has never been more than +.33 SD, shown limited to no modulation ( meaning rise or fall, stable...), and is if anything falling out there. So, I think we can recall pretty clearly the Euro and other guidances really jacking the western heights over runs of the last week and ... it may be a feather in the GEFs cap that the means and individual members for that matter, never really condoned that vision. Just something I noticed.

Haha ... But how does that really make you feel tho - lol, just kiddin' Yeah, guess we agree - that little bug in the flow is just that ..."in the flow" - so yeah it's indicative of a flow that's in the way ... gagh... who cares... Whole pattern we are in was a faux pos and probably isn't worth our energy - I mean, that TV thing has a 500 mb closed surface at 552 dm - it's paltry and weak. Those charts due folks a disservice because they have all these threatening colors but ...that's sort of misleading

Anyway... that 00z GEF teleconnector was a complete reversal overnight last night... Right smack in the face of yesterday's seeming coalesced +PNA and that Euro weird fake SSW bullshit... No, patience wears thin when it gets harder and harder to ignore the strange repeating tendency to be dealt reverses at all scales... Glad my job is picking up these days - may not be around much this winter if these modeling performances continue... There's nothing to be learned or inspired by "miss"guidance

Trust me... it's not that 'piece of shit' - I think it worth it clear up the conceptualizing/ it's a bigger problem with the entire circulation components than that small entity That system in the TV isn't going to usurp that arm of polar jet that flows from eastern Canada SSE through NE .... If you remove that little object from the field, you still have that planetary wave/jet structure in the way....

Mm.. not to be contrarian but that little guy up there isn't the problem... That whole entire polar arm of jet arcing that it is embedded in is a vestigial "suppression" factor on the total synopsis - that thing doesn't really mean much in and of itself. That set up up there is related to the half-hearted daily presentation of the current -NAO that everyone insists(ed) and/or thinks we need to get big storms ... ooooh