Typhoon Tip

I guess it's entirely subjective anyway but ... for what it's not worth anyone, that bold range there ..particualrly the top side, is above normal summery air most afternoons prior .... circa the 21st sun. But whatever - I think of abrupt ends as lower DPs and 'smells like frost' at 10pm even though it's still 50 - ha. Maybe it's CC ... like, this is the new "smells like frost" ... I mean July had a week that averaged -10 or something too - another way to look at how silly the discussion is to even engage. LOL There's also an elephant in the room that many just don't like summer, never did, don't want it. So their leaning on it such that the first indication of anything at all puts them in Thanks Giving mode. That's dicky sarcasm in general -

It feels like we've endured more that two occasions resulting 3" of rain, with lots of .4 to .9" days scattered around in between since July around here. Yet no pond or river is really above normal flow rate. It's weird. I realize June was dry ...sort of... but it seems like we are way over climo (I'll probably go check in a minute and find out we're not lol). It's like the geology left the drain uncorked under the land.

06z Euro seemed more interesting for a conversion to Nor'easter out of Ida's remnants. 00z just prior wasn't so much. In fact the 12z yesterday and the 00z last eve split Ida's guts away from the N-stream - this N-stream is a very weak jet structure with only one or two isohypses defining so it's 'calling' it an N-stream. Nevetheless, some prior runs were phasing Ida with a trough more proficiently, where yesterday's run were 'sperm' missing the 'egg' lol anyway, the 06z ...hard to say if that is a more phasing back, or if Ida is just more inertial in the flow and the run is holding on more. But it looks like it has a warm frontal protrusion toward the upper M/A and a cold front subtended beneath so that argues for more baroclinic - duh, considering where it is at 72 hours, anyway. Either run gives a decent dose of rain but the 06z run looked like it wanted to be more fun with breezes and wind.

Summer has to end .. just a matter of when. Some years it seems to end on a definitive cold front. Other years .. it's a smear. I think this year may be the latter? It seems based upon the 'music' of the ens means and the operational et al., like it will seem like that, but then we'll have too many 80+ days over 60+ DPs to really feel like we've let it go. Personally, I'd like a full sun 74/48 F'er afternoon. Not quite deep autumn ... but the mild air feels fragile. I don't see that anywhere right now....even after the front. Still putting up T1s of 24 C is a warmish 2-meter. So perhaps it is kind of a 'bent over backward' before finally giving in, type of year.

It was at the time a mix. That part of my lawn is actually gonna be converted to a bark mulch rock garden so I’m not terribly concerned about it. having said that… mowing traffic over the course of the summer, the weeds died and the grass came back

Wow, looks like it's slowed down ... sitting there like a umanned circular sander

This is some dorky ... ultimately trivial piece of minutia but, I have never in the 10 years owning this property gone through an entire JJA with a lawn that has maintained late April growth and color tone. In fact, I don't think I have ever seen that in my life, no matter where I've lived along the 40th.

I thought it was neat how the 00z operational Euro phased Ida's vestigial ...whatever it is as it is nearing the upper M/A, into a N-stream trough like it does. The union converts that into a pretty impressive nor'easter, with copious rains [ probably ] for SE sections and some CCB conveyor winds as well. Not sure that's going to do that...just what that guidance portrayed. The 00z GFS seems to smear it more west...

Mm, not so sure about that... The greatest storm surge tends to happen where the winds impact the coast at the maximum wind radii - That means the llv cyclonic jet orientation of and near the eye-wall. There is also science about the lower pressure helping to lift the surface in that vicinity. By convention of land falling systems in the N Hemisphere, that is on the right side of the eye ..but in this case, that does not extend far enough to put the greatest surge into those channel waters. Having said that, ...it doesn't really alleviate the the 'threat' by very much - no. I mean, the 'funneling' effect, ...plus, 70 kt sustain or whatever physical wind strafe is going to blow up that region, is likely to have surge impacts. But as far the 'worst possible surge potential' ... it doesn't appear based upon the above that can be realized by an eye-wall/ low pressure intersection, that is on the other side of the peninsula.

One wonders if Ida's specific approach angle might "spare" - if we wanna call it that .. - the higher potential surge that could otherwise come up the mouth of the Miss. It's approach is from the south side. Now .. obviously the region below NOLA as shown below ... is very lowland - essentially sealevel. Really it's probably more of a tidal flat in these sort of sea level rise scenario. I'm not sure if there is some upper threshold where if it gets so inundating it just over-runs and submerges the whole region. Think of it .. as though for a moment at apex, NOLA is the shore... That's what all this "looks like" - it would be interesting to sit with a FEMA pro from that region and really get into the details of the envisioned scenarios.

Not that this situation 'needs' more hyperbole - the nature of what this is, is it's own drama. It is one situation where the hyperbole can have no affecting superlative meaning, because whatever turn of phrase can be mentioned, those proportions are essentially going to match reality. Dead meat Not only is this thing already powerful enough to level the entire region ... rural to urban down to unusable, if not unrecognizable, and most likely, reduced to non-reentry of any civility that isn't a part of extensive multi-dimensional survey teams for shear public safety requirements, for weeks if not longer... it is doing the dread "bombing while arriving upon the coast" Think Andrew's older brother.

this is a bombing cyclone

Suddenly it’s a monster

Hopefully that’s the storm results in snow at some point so we all get between 2 and 4.5’ while Brian sniffs cirrus virga and glue… right?

bd very well advertised. Awesome out there ..

It's as though it were teetering with doing the show ... peaking around the curtain in apprehension. Pressure falls may lag the -80 cloud topped meso/nuclei that appear to be concentrating and also accelerating in the last hour. It's really either symbolic of, or outright indication there in, that it's T-minus an hour or two before we see either an RI or a goodly intensification either way. The question is, how far does that go and to what extreme - ... does it core out 24 mb and accelerate by 30 mph inside of 12 hours ...Or plus or minus either of those metrics, respectively.

They're also mentioning the ERC stuff ... The thing is, neither the RI, or ERCs can be ascertained, as to the extent it maximizes, or the latter fluctuation compromise wind velocity. But at that point ...it's really splitting hairs. 130 or 150 ... you got redic pressure well and probably a 20" tsunamis overtopped by wave running over the coast... I will say that with the dynamical models predicting the expansion of the wind field, it seems unlikely that a core would not begin to replace ... But, we're likely to get the RI first. Of the two phenomenon, the RI is more confidence. Bottom line, by 36 hours we may have a strong Cat 4 with no ability to weaken or drain off IKE prior to landfall most likely along the Miss. Delta/tide-water area. Inundation/over-run over those geographic features, and also up the mouth of the Mississippi would take place where ever nakedly exposed to the arrival of a storm surge given to present consensus

Bingo! The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday. Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance now brings Ida to category 4 intensity.

agree with prediction elevation to Category 4 nearing landfall, but there is no way to know if it maxes there or touches Cat 5 or remains just 4. It's outflow expanse is growing immense - it has huge room for intensification. It is likely whatever shear there is, is likely to be subsumed by the total mechanic presence of Ida in the area.

heh...Reminds me...last year we had a advisory level snow event on Oct 30 ... it was 80 every day between ..what was that, Nov 4 and 8.

yeah it's 92/60s here

Legit cat 3 is potent enough for user's dystopian drug, anyway lol. No but It's really more of an experimental talking point. Its need stems from the gap between prediction vs, sometimes these cyclone do get into the 160+/ 910 mb VIP lounge - the trick is to know when. Seldom does NHC put out an advisory with a max wind forecast interval like that - yet they happen. Someone with stats? maybe 12 of these ilk of storm out there in the last 20 years. IT seems there's a gray area ( weak pun in there somewhere) in that upper ranging. But yeah, once we are over a buck-10 in sustained wind we're denuding the shore and calving roofs, just matter of how complete that denudation succeeds.

SW shear is very light and I still believe that as Ida denatures the surrounding medium in lieu of its mechanics, the cyclones subsidence circumvallate ring will take over and intercede any light shearing ... effectively creating its own environment that shelters that. If the shear were strengthening it would not be able to do so... Other than modest land elevations over western Cuba, I don't see any real reason why this won't just continue along an intensification curve. Frankly this is vivid candidate for an RI ... just reiterating my earlier sentiments, I know ... if this mid day surge in intensity isn't that process already beginning. I feel confident this cyclone will exceed present intensity expectation.

It's dropped over 10 mb in the last hour and a half

Now a hurricane