Typhoon Tip

There's other models and a fuller manifold of metrics to consider... just commenting on the last several GFS ( operational ) cycles, that looks like steepening CAA-related lapse rates, while there is exquisite mass restoration mechanics going on.. As is, in those runs, it's an abrupt light wind to turbines.. Advisory would be first guess but as gets closer ...who knows.

That's a sneaky headline wind event there ... betwixt 06z and 14z Sunday morning with that weird ANA-cyclone hybrid. It's a lowered pressure anomaly prior to the baroclinic axis and wave as it approaches, so there's little restoration of mass; then abruptly/rapidly it continues thru and departs. The combination of starting at the depth of a pressure well with incoming higher sfc pressure superposes those acceleration vectors. That's an impressive isallobaric wind potential there these recent GFS looks. Symbolic too ... that front/wave sort of heralds in the approaching step down interval, so it comes in after many days of lower wind flux anomalies by abruptly moving a lot of mass very quickly, and when it is done, we are likely to be in a solid snow column.. At least for a moment. heh If that next Clipper like deal kinks up enough, I'd through Ptype out the window - that's snow in that hydrostatic profile/850 thermal layout/synoptic awareness... Anyway, turbine roars may come in like a p-wave and it's too bad that doesn't happen in daylight because the sky is likely to be festooned with oak leaves. lol

..he said tongue in cheek looking off sideways. Of course they do - but we play the game

I will tell you with high personal confidence, if those operational GFS hydrostatic heights, and 850 mb temperature schemes are correct, its green QPF will tend to be snow actually. Probably right up to I-95, too - ...same would be true for late Saturday in the far interior .. flash over to brief 'chutes. - sorry I had to fix this...got the two "mixed" haha. I also find that backside ANA-cyclone hybrid that's been gaining identity for late Saturday interesting. Man - fast flow high potency circulation type is a error juggle, not doubt. Euro has all features in question but didn't opt into a faster/deeper detonation of either the Saturday or next week - either way is equally likely ...

That's related to the warmer ( pun ) truth right there ( bold ). Solar voltaic technologies can be advanced much further ... So too can battery tech - where so in concert with networking and load balancing, wind is still quite infantile. These are unexplored fully, and Hydro isn't even in discussion. Jesus, the oceanic tide dependability is a gravitational engine that is limitless. In other words, their capacity has not been reached. Not even close really. But, the truth is, they don't want to be reached - that's the elephant in every debate hall, water cooler discussion, or social media platform there is. Opposition has vested interests that rely upon traditional modes, and thus really it's a form of "protectionism" - in a more open definition of what the word really means. Instead of tariffs and/or limitations on trade to protect internal economic interests, in this sense they are limiting "trades of information" in order to protect their own internal economic interests... Anyway, it is also a typical strategy to masquerade as prophet of infeasibility and hardship - one is not true, the latter is tough shit, you don't have any choice. They lose me at economic hardship arguments. Simple reason: There is no economics in a future where they don't exist, and climate holocaust means that. They are simply not connecting with that reality. They may as well just cut out the smoke-screening of their rationale and just admit, they don't see climate change as a legit threat. Many of these fields of research ( or where implement into physical use) are still primitive compared to how far they can be advanced. Relying on the right-now scalar capacity to foot their arguments is wantonly short-sighted.

Agreed. You know this, just speaking to the general audience here: And, it hasn't really been the other way with this guy .. save for one or two sporadic non-dependable runs of GFS ( heh, one wonders if there is a tell there). The 18z yesterday's NJ Model bomb was one of those .. But no continuity. Invariably, those notions immediately re-damped back to the too-little-too-late on the next cycle. I did a quick eval. The loading mechanics, as of the 06z, were just approaching the Date Line, out around 45 N. It was entering the compression under a progressive L/W in that region, thus pulled and stretched by fast flow ... extending out over the abyssal Pacific - in other words, in the absolute middle of nowhere. It is literally going to have to be 100% satellite sounding/assimilated. Which is usually fine - nowadays. Technology and techniques therein have improved over the last 20 years, considerably. I mean remember the good old days? As winter storm enthusiasts, how our dreams sometimes came true that error correction, upon relaying into the more physically realized sounding domain, would suddenly manifest and moisten said dreams. The last time this seemed to really matter was that Boxing Day bomb way back. That thing was impressive at D8... all but disappeared in the interim. Out of nowhere, just three runs it marches 2,000 naut miles NW! Still, this is a highly sensitive-to-smaller error scenario. The other limiting factor is that as the wave mechanics are diving in, the leading embedded wave space has escaped the EC taking most of the dynamics with it. The baroclinic axis, as of these overnight runs, is just too far off shore as you noted. The way around that is to have a stronger system relay off the Pacific. A deeper more momentum saturated inject introduces torque to the larger synoptic manifold. This manifest as flow rotation, or veering at mid levels into more meridian structure out ahead. That starts importing lower level warmth/moisture back W-N immediately astride the coast. Basically, b-c zone has redeveloped/ repositioned closer ... My own experience is, this kind of persistent presence in the models, usually means it is in and of its self significant. It's likely that one way or the other...it's a bomb whisking away out over the open expanse of NW-N Atlantic beyond D6, whether that begins to happen sooner or later.

That 300+ hr GFS is a textbook NJ Model nuke

Woah woah woah... c'mon now. To be fair, no model is handling this progressive wave tumbling pattern very well. The Euro did something similar at 240 hours just 4 or so cycles ago, having Indian Summer balm ... to runs later, gone. It's not a GFS sucks thing - either - when you are talking about Nov 25... I mean, that can't possible be a rationally fair metric - folks probably shouldn't be looking at that range if they are using that against performance - just being fair.

This ^ I was doing mid day errands and suddenly ... oaks peaked! Go wonder - there's also less common species mixed in that were actually more stubborn than the oaks, that were adding still green and those are flushing over brown/orange quickly. I wonder if this belated behavior took place in 1971

Yeah ... I think I read that bullshit requirement - Like 'an inch' ...what the f does that mean ... 'more than a pube'? That's razor thin, and if it is an inch, there are areas where it failed... I think it is a subjective thing that slopes in favor of getting a white recognition hahaha... When in spirit, white everywhere and not melting ... or raining on Xmas morning such that it is bear ground by 4pm but because it there 2" of corn snow at dawn really -yaaaay! I'm half snarking for fun -

Heh, I wonder what counts as "white Xmas" lol. If it snowed 6" on Dec 16 and 8 days later there's some snow piles lining curbs and some in the shade - that's bootlegging a definition. It just doesn't appeal in memory to be that robust to me -but ... that's yahoo admittedly

is that contracted per storm or hour ..? - it just says 200

Cool! I wonder what this would look like if it was run for 2000 - 2021 hm

Yeah...ensembles have been flirting with it. The 00z EPS mean was ever so slightly more consolidated with a closed ..albeit weakly so, millibar along Cape Cod, and also an 'attitude' for more amp at 500 mb. Earlier I mentioned, "There's a 'little critter' signaled around 156 hours or so... go from there. .." Meanwhile, the individual GEFies have been tossing a clipper like minor wave around the cycles like hot potato - heh..no one wants ownership. Thing is, the flow is flat -ish-like off the Pac ..it's not the best times for nailing mid range spatial and temporal aspects.

probably the last 70 we'll see until next Christmas Eve .... I know we've been over this a dozen times but it's just not something I really pay attention to, nor give much shit about .. but what is the return rate for white xmas' ? Jeez, ya'd think after growing up in the area through the 80s and 90s I'd have a bead on it but - ...I don't really know beyond guesswork. Like, I think saw one of the local on-camera dudes ..way back in the day, put up a graphic and so forth that it was 1:3 ... But I think since 2000 ( anyway ..) that's too generous. in the last six years, it seems it's been all or nothing... Remembering back recently, 2017, that was about as pinnacle idyllic a white xmas as Earth can do. No snow on ground with a winter storm warning in place by late in the afternoon on the Eve, and as the blue illumination cast through the morning windows ... 8-10" of Currier&Ives snow globe whirled ... It ended around cinnabun time ... and the sun coming out, I mean it was like angel's in chorus with prism icicle overload. All the other years since 2015? Satan's rectal canal ..

70 here

I frankly can't trust any operational model solution in present era - regardless of which origin ( or street cred/personal bias choice ) therefrom. Lower than the 'normal model error expectation,' by a goodly amount at that... Lol, the NAVGEM has about as much odds of nailing a D8'er look as any at this point. The problem is that the canvased pattern enveloping our side of the Hemisphere ( from N of Hawaii to S of Greenland ) is characterized by a low N-S, but high W-E amplitude type. That is a low performing arena at any time of the year; adding to that, this is not a typical model-performance merit season: Transitioning mid autumn. It is in fact demerit in nature. Heh ...but wait, it doesn't end there. On top of those compounding belly punches into the torso of determinism ... the models consummately bring anything and everything into the outer emergent ranges of their runs ( circa D8 + out to the ends...), over amplified compared to what ultimately verifies. This has been notable for years of operational vagaries. It's not a fixed value.. It's like I said yesterday: inspirational aspect --> less inspirational results. It's variable as to how much or little that is the case... But far less frequently does a small blip in pattern change, or small wave in the field on D11, end up writing passages in climate bibles. But going the other way, ...for whatever reason of complexity, that happens a lot more often. It doesn't help that the American -based telecon spread' mean features a weakly positive PNA that is sagging negative actually ... D10+, while the NAO is bouncing around positive for a week before half the members split (+)(-). That's sort of N/S by statistical convention in the matter - I realize the EPS may be more stolid with a 'somewhat' favorable look, but I don't believe this amplitude correction tendency is unique to American model types - which means in simple terms, it too may tone it down given time. In fact, as I've outlined so often in the past, the Euro DEFINITELY has a curved wash in it's D7s ... it's in the genetics of the Euro cluster, too. The upshot of uncertainty and N/S ... that doesn't have to mean "No Snow" Anytime after the World Series and Halloween are in the books, it is fair game N of the Del Marva. It's just a matter of return rate. N of the mid latitudes ( however ..) I am noticing that sub -10C expanses of 850 mb air are consistently showing up - despite variability as noted. That's not a bad table setting ...should the randomness of wave timing in space snag some ... There's a 'little critter' signals around 156 hours or so... go from there.

29 to 65 .. impressive diurnal spread

I was just being passively snarky about the 12z Euro run yesterday ... That D10 did not look like a mid month cool down pattern to me. But obviously, one run doesn't make a bun. The comment is really directed toward the straw man, as I spent time writing about it last week, and as usual .. more than a sentence gets auto-ignored. Heh. I didn't see anyone very interested in acknowledging, either way. So attempting to keep this brief uh 'er', the models ( regardless of which - ) for years now ( actually ...) have this propensity to over magnify everything that comes into the outer time range - then, spend ... cycle after cycle after cycle seemingly engineering petty reasons to tax the original look. What ends up verifying is ... at best 70 % of the original. It's just a personal observation of the model performance/..behavior. And it doesn't matter if it's heating or cooling anomaly patterns, and/or storms and whatever contained within them. Everything is awe-inspiring --> less awe-inspiring; it's presumptive correction vector for me at this point. I used the metaphor last year for this aspect ... it's like the moon first rising over the eastern horizon? I looks ginormous... but then as it ages upward into its zenith, it's a fraction of its original - it's like the models "magnify" everything that emerges into the D~12 range

That's the confidence rattler when surveying 'anecdotal climatology' Those accounts are based on visual memories, ... which are invariably going to be milled through at least some amount of ( personal bias + the imagination )/2. No human being can really store information on mental engrams, when all incoming information is molded by endearing nostalgia. LOL After the "fact" ... even in the best possible objective personal recollection source, that person lives for < 100 years. Usually not much more than 80. That's not an altogether very dense sample set. In a stable climate, you can have 20 or 30 year variance that faux suggested Dec's are bigger snowers... Followed by multi-decade spans that ( eventually...) normalize back to a 300-year mean ..etc. Anecdotal experience are inherently limited as all ... Muddling matters further ... the climate is not stable now.

And so the back off begins …

Oh yeah .. gonna be dark in 5 min

24 here this morning .. it’s kind of funny I was just talking couple weeks ago how rare it is to have that cold still air leaf fall … summarily 3 mornings back to back have dine that.

Looks like a fast moving oscillatory pattern to me... seasonal cold anomalies replaced by warm ones ever 2 days of periodicity through mid month - that's the illustration of the recent Euro oper. and GFS trends. I disagree that the GEFs should be 86'ed with some autopilot measure - to each his/her own.

That said, heh ... I'm from Michigan I guess since I've lived most of my life in New England I must've been cleansed .. exorcised. Still, I'd like to think that even if I am ultimately not deemed one of them, ...there are smart people there. I've joked in my past, admittedly. But, I did so in snark .. jest; cynical levity is fun, but is meant for droll- not to be taken more than such. The five universal laws of human stupidity? After I read that, I visualize the three types of individuals they outline, make a pyramid. The top piece are those of purer intelligentsia, and by geometric convention, are a smaller number compared to the whole. The boundary between that upper piece and the next tier, the "bandit" stupids, is a fade-through - there are those that share in moments of purity, but pretty readily fail compunction tests... ( this is all hilarious to me, btw). But once in the the pith of the middle's ... this is where you'll find the type of intelligence that is bogged down with motivations that are detrimental to society. They can be both toxic negative, and 'toxic positive' ( complex gray area). But more obviously, it is where lurks white-collar crime for example, or any in the relative Machinations we read about and scoff. Morality and ethics ... virtuosity are negotiable, usually in favor of a bias. These are obviously the most dangerous group ...Some 30% of all cardiac owners ( heh ). Remove their nefarium, they actually can join the upper tier, 'capable of not being idiots.' By and larger part of their nature, this ilk of population are compelled ... some with no awareness they are even assholes. Some that aware, but lack remorse. Its a matter of what day of the week and/or how egregious the stench. Usually, it's tolerable...which why Capitalism works - LOL. The rest, the bottom of the pyramid, is where the vaster population numbers resides. This is the "57%" majority. They are codependent upon the top two sectors ( really..) to keep society's gears lubed and running...etc. So the pyramid shape sort of coalesces out of the mental ether when thinking about it. Unlike Chimps and Dolphins, where intelligence is less varied from one individual to the next, humans can compose symphonies, and others cannot. Some can solve 4th order tensor equations in an 8-dimensional manifold-reality, while other's cannot. That's the thing with intelligence as a "species ownership" - they higher the order of the former, the more variance there is per capita. As brain sophistication gets more so ... it tends to differentiate into "talents" ...interesting. Hard to know if that is environmentally advantageous, or if it is just that the human biological brain is so sophisticated it becomes probablistically vulnerable to capacity variance. I also imagine a dark humorous animation, where since the ballast of idiocrasy is heavier on one side, that starts the whole thing spinning, and then perpendicular to that rotation, there is drill bit attached and it is of course pointing down [ enter drill whirring machine sound here], as it bores humanity to hell. I've referred to Michigan as "Militiagain" - due entirely to their earned resume. Texas and perhaps Utah come to mind as largely rural regions where extremists tend to find limited challenges in open spaces. Left to their own devises. It is not intended to 'shade' rural backgrounds. It's just that unfortunately, the art in literature, song and cinema re rural zeitgeist is essentially correct. Tough shit - if we don't like it, stop doing that. Stop communing fringe ideological "weapons research against any government for the sake of organized I hate authority," and you won't earn that unsavory distinction of being creepy. As a Michigan born citizen ... I am embarrassed at their tendency to engender Timothy McVeigh's. Or be it that 13-person plot to kidnap and do, who-the-hell-knows-what to Governor Whitmer. I mean, that's a lot of individuals bought into an absurdity, .. like an actual retinue. They have to be absconded away from reality by the same delusion, having [apparently] zero recognition of its ostentatious specter? it's really rather remarkable. There's an urban-dictionary entry ( which is like the word-waiting-room to be formally codified into the heritage versions...) called group psychosis. Quick copy-paste looks something like, "When the mentality of one member of a group causes a group to follow suit. The behavior shown is usually anti-social, brutal and mob-like." It may just be my imagination, but whenever I read or hear sentences like, "...FBI arrested 13 in conjunction with credible suspicion to commit capital crime" against a formal and representation of systemic structure ( to which an agent of high ranking government is symbolic more so than anything else to these half-wits ...) I pretty much just conclude it is group psychosis. In fact, Jan 6 was also a mob operating on a faux reality/delusion for that matter. I further posit that our society has schism problem, based on a separate posit: Telecommunication is a cultural, evolutionary force that has crossed a 'momentum threshold.' It is an influence that is modulating inside of generation time spans. In the last 20 years, ... I believe it is causal ( sociologically ) for the proliferation of all these cultural rest stops for the stimulation wary. Each one has it's own doctrine that then gets embolden as it picks up more and more off these lost Internet traveling loons, who by virtue of the previous model of man kind ( and benefit for mainstream), were separated from one another by the uncertain distance of the hills ..