Typhoon Tip

Yeah... honestly, for 'big storm enthusiasts' this is on hold pending - This run strikes me as the same thing ... it's more of a 2.5 day placeholder event for having a huge numerical potential in the box roughly bounded by 60-90W by 35-50N ... We could have a more important S/W take command early ... mid .. or late in that time span and then we end up with the decadal faster flow storm in lieu of this weird 2 days moderate pub crawl. Best to go with moderate snow over an usually longer period ...type of thing I just wonder if the EPS mean does the same thing and out-bids it's own captain - like the 0z run

not sure ... it could get all proper/traditionally leading indicator - like, but...I still believe this has more bent toward an unusual aspect, where the perennial North American pattern ( not to be confused with the PNA ) is - for whatever reason - bursting a western height eruption. That's not really PNA proper feed in...but it is what it is... The problem with the PNAP is that wave space terminates roughly... Ohioness in longitude... Meanwhile, the 90 to 60W is getting abandoned by the crumbling -NAO, western limbed blocking... That leaves a null region in normal progression ( transiently..) ... So whatever times in there gets caught in amber ... but that's getting speculative - The short answer is that it "looks" more proper than it is... This thing's hiding its secrets - I call those "super synoptic," but it's just meaning that there are synergistic aspects and are readily observable. They feed-back on forcing things once they emerge. ...tough not to believe in the cosmic dildo but that's a digression for another paranoia... LOL

Honestly ... this needs to be the correction vector ...and we probably aren't the best crew of individuals to be exposed to guidance availing of a Langrangian COL point in the teleconnector spread because with our cutting objective insight...we definitely will filter out that prospect of a 60 hours of Coastal avalanche and go with something more sensible than taking 2.5 days to snow S+++ the whole way - 'totally can happen, dude'

That's a choke snow inflow jet - sorry... - it's just a model depiction amongst many that we'll eye-candy and/or rue our ways thru over the next 3 or so days ... then perhaps a believable consensus "precipitates" ( haha ) out of all that, but in a snap shot... with closing/deepening 700-400 plates under a 300 mb right fanning diffluence... that is snowing 8" /hr with multi pulse + stroked CG so powerful that EMP shuts down the grid clear to DCA and trips gamma-ray detectors down at LIGO I'm kidding... heh. I haven't read J. Nichol's story yet but I fear such turns of phrasing - ... just kidding James. Anyway, seriously, that kind of inflow jet under an unstable and continuing to further destablizing interior cyclonic stadium ...with diffluence in the upper region is likely to be prolific if that were to pan that way -

Guys ... "dry slot" in accordance with Met parlance is not merely where it is dry - haha... That's a dry entrained tongue of air that wraps under the 700mb belly. Just making sure... I don't a 986 mb low on or just west of the BM has a 700 mb low that far inland, or else that is definitely a suspect structured pos run -

It's a weak list in my estimation - fwiw ... I don't see any of those below as exceptional tie-ins ... just guesstimating it looks like the top 5 or no better than mid 60s ... maybe mid 70s %tile I think/wonder if that owes to the fact that this is a unique- ish scenario. I mean, you can get analog lists that are above the 85th in the top five ...

Y'allz can find it here: https://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-Collections/US-Daily-Weather-Maps

Yup ... so, we're now turning pages into the chapters of this saga, where both the operational model runs attempt to gaslight ... but, people allow them to - I think we used to call this middle range black out back in the day...

Nah ...it's not even SE ... not with that moderate spread near ACK ... that's just as much likelihood that thing destines too close actually -

Yup ... ( moderate potency + duration ) /2 solution there want to stress the distinction between a 9 to 12 hour snow bomb with CCB wind event off a bomb juggernaut -vs- a 24 hour moderate snow with occasional heavy bands and occasional lighter bands, in moderate climate storm winds... Those two scenarios get one to the same impact destination. That is, of course...how all this looks now. Also stressing the point ...we are still really seeing the models responding to period of time more so than a specific event - altho the latter is formulating. You can punt the 48 hours of constant hosing snow and wind as though New England and upper M/A will sit that long inside the choke flow off the nozzle of a Valian snow making machine ... uh, you know better than that - c'mon

LOL ... In any case, there is an emerging signal for a robust cold wave/event to transpire toward the end of the first week of Feb ...materializing probably in guidance more coherently - if so - while we feast or famine through the Feb 1-3rd ordeal ... It's a basic overview, but the MJO appears potent in guidance from multiple sourcing ( Euro/GFS/EPS/GEFs et all) through Phase 7 ... as a slow lurker but moderate wave potency in the RMM as most can easily go see/find.. But, that does correlate with the -AO ... which dun dun dunnnnn: -- SSW timing and that particular forcing mechanism begins ...basically today. LOL... no kidding though..timing the end of the first week of January puts day 20 mean correlation lag today. But, obviously there are no ridged rules ... but, we are seeing a renew downward mode of the AO out there between the 7th and 14th of February, as the MJO is propagating pretty potently in the RMM thru climate supportive Phase 7 and likely extrapolates into 8. The strengthening MJO on the left side of the RMM is actually the preferred correlation with the -AO...so that part of the statistical package is clad. What is a bit odd is that all of this sort of conflicts with the low amplitude La Nina footprint ... Having said that, I don't give a shit... The La Nina - imho - is almost impossible to parse out its influence from the HC expansion shit which is just as real... And the MJO is bursting out of that buried state is what it is ... and if it is in Phase 7 and successfully propaging ... this all becomes yet another form of 'teleconnector convergence' perhaps enough to overpower that low amplitude baser state. And we'd likely see a -EPO out of the concerted exertion over the total hemisphere when these get detected. That's my lean at this time... That's also a regime change that will replace this +PNAP ... quasi -NAO bouncing around... New storm chance ? It wouldn't be like this one here in the foreground - agreed.. If we get into a -EPO loading pattern, we squeeze things and herald anew a return to the velocity surplussing -

Heh... you know ? - I mean this isn't Iceland, nor is this an Icelandic Low redux hahaha

Yeah... despite my own arty rhetoric at times ( ..heh ) ...I'm still of the school for a long-duration moderate snow, that by virtue of said duration, ...attains a more robust if not major impact from interior mid Atlantic up to Maine as a base-line risk assessment. It's got modulation room for more and less.. K.U.... ? Yup Historic ? Heh, I'd shelve that for now I just elaborated my various ensemble mean hot-takes ( lol. ...) but, I also modulate aspects based upon experience and book-smarts combined... I do think this can evolve- not impossible in other words - toward a historic deal, but there's just as much possibility for something durational/less...etc... I believe a substantive system is higher likelihood. And we eye-candy runs for muse until D4.5 ... The other aspect to bring up is that... the EPS ( for example...) and the GEFs are 2-day onslaughts...so, the front side of this may come into the visible range of improving certitude before the ass end of it... One thing I am noticing that is a interesting, and is true in both the GEFs and EPS ( pretty remarkable micro-management at this range frankly, too - ) is that they have a kind 'impact pulsation' episodes in two - owing to the fact that there is 2ndary mid troposphere wave mechanics bottoming out and helping back-develop the systemic envelopment of the cyclone - noisy fascination -

I'll get caught up with other's contribution since ... but from where I'm sitting, the ensemble means are ominous. Whether the portend is a chapter out of a Nichol's dystopian fantasy, or lesser impacts through other storm characteristics and means.... something is high confidence for significant impact, still. -- The various ensemble means - which I believe at 120-180 late mid range is still the course of lesser regret All three, GEPS, GEFS and EPS came in substantially implicating .. relative to their previous blends. In fact , all three have improved along a constant trend for 5 cycles. That's a fantastic signal.. It's getting that unavoidable vibe about it - in the least, too much weight to ignore, and because the super synoptic, synoptic, and individual depictions are shared in conception for a large system with multi-faceted impact profiling... eigh ... -- The GEPs blend was the less improved in the absolute sense, but still gathered west and deeper all around. Obviously the take away there is that it is taking advantage of the earlier thread discussion/ elaborated teleconnector convergence aspect, and probably .. this continues to emerge more consolidated/ west imho, in this particular cluster/future. What's 'telecon convergence'? That's a personal-ism for when/where there are distinctly differing mass-field modalities exerting a statistical implication upon the same correlated space ... ( example, -NAO correlates to the EC .. the +PNAP correlates to ... duh duh dunnn the EC ) The spirit of which is to compound the confidence interval that said location is getting its hide prepped for a tanning ... - LOL -- The GEFs is deeper and west, both with mid level heights, and surface blended isobaric pressure over previous cycles. The implication of this mean is a solid 48 hour Nor'easter...I suspect that gets narrowed to either the earlier or latter 24-hour period... I have never heard or seen a Coastal storm rage for 48 straight hours with non stop implications of QPF loading, winds and onslaughts. This event is slow moving ... that slow movement is because - imho as discussed in rhetorical artistry - it is situating in a kind of atmospheric Lagragian nexus, where there is an absence of steering field/equal stress to evac whatever ends up there - which is quite analogous really to what a gravitation Lagragian point is in space, where objects get trapped in gravitational amber between two celestial gravity wells because of equal tide effects. I don't see that this conceptually can't have more practical usefulness, anyway, as all of it is ultimately based upon wave-mechanics anyway -...so, mathematicians can tussle but it doesn't matter. Point is, the +PNAP is dumping synergistic wave feed-backs into a region that the decay of the erstwhile -NAO is abandoning, and that region is thus stranded as a node between two regions of exterior forcing, so it, too, ends up equally stressed much in the same way. -- The EPS looks like a 30 hour blizzard of historic snow depth, but perhaps only moderate wind concerns relative to climate on this latter. That's just the way that canvas looks - not forecasting that. Good lord! A 993 mb blend at D7 !! on the BM, with a heights falling 10 dm across 24 hours preceding as the whole structure agonizes slowly by along a trajectory SE of ISP, L.I. ... All of which is bathed in -1 SE to -10 NW 850 mb CCB thermal profile beneath what conceptually has to be ideal everything .... sorry - it is what it is at this time. The operational version being a less amplified .. more busted ravioli than it's own ensemble mean at D7 ... I've seen the oper. be less amped, albeit quite rare, over the ensemble mean, but not that far out in time - that's a head-scratcher. I wouldn't hang up on individual cycle/operational distractions and/or "noise" this, or run to run specific give and take thats - this system still needs to come into front side of the mid-range. ...And these ens means, and operational signals ... they're all just explaining that, I feel these crawling 2-day event depictions are really the bevy of technology flagging the ginormous numerically favorable 2-3 days period for something important to evolve ... the movement/structure of which is really more, for D5-8, being conducted by these super-structures ( emergent properties) combined with planetary R-wave motions. Plenty of time... This still looks to me like said 2-3 day period of higher tier numerical potential, just perhaps waiting for whatever S/W mechanics will time/handle into it..

It’s just missing that small amount of addition jet mechanics ... but it’s not anywhere close to a range where that matters. rule of time-dependency in the uncertainty term ... you don’t want perfection beyond 120 hrs. You want hints of perfection This is an entire situation where the sensitivity is more focused in the actual shortwave(s) dumping into ...the surrounding medium, which has been consistently modeled with those previously discussed synoptic and super synoptic constraints. I think it’s possible that this gets a little bit more beef as we get closer and get more sampling. And said surrounding medium is so favorable for amplification due to constructive interference that if even a little more shortwave mechanics get dumped and you’re going to get a disproportionately bigger payback ...that’s the way synergy works. Rogue wave complexity

Reminds me of April ‘97

Euro kicked in 18z yesterday with that exquisite snow production/cross-sectional jets appeal and every model keeps hitting that ever since. Even the ICON sells that perfect slabbing incredible consistency for that specificity.

Man that NORLUN just missed on this ICON run

Late to the party tho contributed when i could - I feel this is a smidge of a positive bust already along Rt 2 up here in N Orh and Mid-sexy Co's ... We've been flirting with 1/4 mi vis at three different intervals since 4:30pm ... and have amassed 4" at mi casa - this is probably going to out perform the NWS totals... Harv was the highest I saw of the cam guys and he was 3-5" but west of here... - kinda give that a pass though. So I not sure how pervasive this is, or what this has in store through dawn, but if we're 4" now and start clear-air moding the rad fillin later on we're boot-legging a warning, if perhaps in a narrow band. Not sure what everyone's getting - no

I grow more impressed with each passing cycles ...now blending the Euro/GGEM/GFS regarding the western ridge ... too much astonishment -their respective ensemble means are on the same page with an impressive +PNAP inflation. It's not just the operationals... the EOFs are hollowing out the field SE of ACK... Even if transient ..it's just perfectly timed wit that -NAO decay to garbage collect any S/W shrapnel coming over the ridge arc ultimately ..having nowhere else but to phase in ... And we only see that as much as we can given the coarse nature of the guidance graphics but honestly ..there's more to those wave kinematics than that - that whole constructive feedback stuff is real folks...and this 18z GFS is now down < 528 dm with the resultant coupled nadir in the EC roll up ... and it's not really even delivered an impressive wind momentum yet... This one isn't predicated on ridge in the west this time, it predicated on what the Pac delivers that will/would ultimately get caught in amber in that aforementioned nodal Langrandian concept. It's just powdered stall scenario - like we haven't frankly seen in years ... - coming from the synoptic super structure. I'm waiting for the one run that dumps in a 110 knot S/W jet core and this things really going to go bonkers - It's got everything else

Hints at 'warm seclusion' ... yeah. I wouldn't be too concerned with details like the surface wind trajectory ... If it were even worth fretting over at this range, I'd caution that the confluence/upper air NAO blocking node that's passing SE through eastern Ontario and it's attending surface polar high will probably jam a NE flow down the Maine coast and pack a CF into the CC Canal ...maaybe as far inland as Taunton but again - these are meaningless distinctions for now. We need to get this D4 to start up with that... Although speculation is fun - don't get me wrong. I personally feel ( also ..) the GFS has a tendency to warm BL too much beyond short range. I see it with green and blue mixed QPF at 525 dm thickness ...ah, yeah, too often

Yup ... and when we get into analogs... most K.U.'s are cousins -

Prelim assessment on unusually high confident D6-8 day lead storm potential... At this time - appears >50% chance for higher impact. This may come as a more anyway ...but could also foundation upon duration alone. I would like to see another 4 to 6 dm cored out of the negative tilting/quasi closure as this is carving rather slowly compared to recent climo, from roughly the interior M/A lat/lon to between CC/'Raymond'mark ( ...uh, I mean ..) in order to really up the ante on this. It should be cautioned that 30 to 32.7 F 24 hours straight of moderate snow with embedded enhancing from the usual frontogenic/MESO/CSI, which both would happen, but are presently completely invisible to any determinism, becomes a major impact to civility. This is a new one by recent inference/standards - ... we'll have to go back in history for familiarization for how this type of system behaves. Slow moving quasi cut-off lows that are deepening during their translation: ... they'll have a field's -worth of idiosyncrasies about them that cannot be assessed/resolved this far out - but just be leery about any assumptions based upon recent experience. Hello all - 1"/hr rates protracted does a job on a demography anyway one cuts it, should that play out. The general early risk assessment appears to follow after K.U. more classically ... impressionably impacting from interior VA to Maine. This may come with a problems ranging from transportation, to grid infrastructure, basic snow removable gets exhaustive ... and I'm interested in Tide monitoring with slow moving coastal and long sourced fetch coming in around the N wall of the cyclonic well ( seeing some guidance < 990 now! ) means getting the ocean into wave tizzy either way...tide is depending. This event's governing super synoptic evolution arrives in a teleconnector 'Langrangian region' - artful metaphor... but area between ~ 90 and 60W/ 35 and 50N is equally stressed in all directions, such that whatever meanders into that region gets stuck for lack of better words... That region is becoming a pivot node between an transient +PNAP expression west ( which may in fact be rooted in a broader PNA mode change ...tho the verdict is sketchy on that... ). Meanwhile, the latitude collapse of erstwhile -NAO ( western limb ) blocking is trying to move down into the lower Maritime of Canada as the upper air confluence breaks apart. - pin the tale on the donkey. Not to aver any anolog, but 1969 is an example of this sort of nodal trapped disturbance. Because of these synoptic and more super-synoptic 'synergy' type signals, this would seem to be a higher confidence scenario for a D6-9 time range. It is notable that most operational guidance ( that I have seen ) ..seem to fall into place around a common scope - I'd almost take the Euro as the course of most likely utilization of the above concepts and go ahead and assume that a native speed/progression bias in most GFS -related guidance, probably attempts to compensate for this by smearing through that concept - it's not allowing the system's wherewithal to maximize. Which it may not... ? But I got to tell you ... this really smacks hard as one of the fixed deals at extended leads, because the physics et al at multiple planetary scales are constructively interfering. SO, summary: -- you don't have to have exotically deep Hollywood bombs to create big problems. You just need to have a couple few parametrics really maximize. The problem with slow movers is that they are given time to relay ... onset lift... --> CCB mechanics --> dynamic UVM CSI --> ...etc...these are given gestation hours and that's well achieved with 990 against a polar higher in a negative tilt. Jet cross sections look ideal...such that ( similar by behavior alone) a Jan 19, 1978 998 mb low did 20" at Logan in 24 hours.... You don't have to red-carpet the storm - -- duration of long-shore fetch and tides, which unlike that '78...this a large circulation with some low pressure SD depth and a pretty long isobaric layout. -- 31.5 F type mid aggregate paste falling through a -1C isothermal W-NW cyclonic arc is a problem for sustained QPF/grid ...particularly in the M/A but even up our way. so prelim risk ...and we'll add or take away as needed in the count-down. But at this time, this has a duration, multi-faceted look to it for me.

Yeah...this is not a majorly powerful system - it's impact is/was ( at this time and preceding indications...) by virtue of duration... That's the thread start - I'm presently detained with work related gunk .. I have not been writing for the past 15 hours though Ray - lol

Man same damn nodal low affect