Typhoon Tip

Oh it's most like a phantom event's reach-around puge tug while pulling out, no doubt. But it would be nice to see the Euro be oblivious to an event that is "10 KM" in grid spacing. heh

There's a NORLUN checklist ... shit, I used to have that on an old OS.. But that NAM QPF just looks like a NORLUN meso band

It's interesting how these IVT snow scenarios are like buck-shot in models. That may be last untamed frontier in forecast modeling performance, and that's where the IVT targets. The last 36 hours of models made this painfully clear that it wouldn't be a classic cyclone impact, but at the time ... IVT entered the discussion by spraying solutions everywhere. I remember this back all the way to the 1990s. I think there was a Norlun ( or IVT ...if there's a difference there), that gave PWM like 18 to 24" overnight on a headline graphic that had white states... oops. But models back in the day used to start sniffing the possibility out, and then every run would reposition the axis of QPF south of previous... If it came into the 60 hour range on you, it was an ordeal that verified south after pivoting that way in future guidance. It doesn't seem that sort of 'error prediction' happened here. It's been NYC, Berks... NE Mass...

... I've seen this happen in the past, a lot. Some model puts up an idea on some run along the way, and it is either ignored, laughed at, or just hm'ed. Then, yup ..said depiction goes away, and the notion to dismiss is validated. See? Except ... two or three cycles later, some other model does the same thing. What this tells us is that the idea was physically possible, more so than should have been dismissed out of hand. In this case, GGEM that we just got done impugning from that run *( well, I wonder if I am thinking of the same run cycle ), and here this NAM solution isn't hugely different than that in concept-result. Whether it is Berks, NYC or Logan aside... RGEM kinda gets a pat on the back "IF" these runs are in concert onto something. That remains to be seen...

Certainly feels like it out there.. wow.

The GGEM became noticeably better 2 years ago ... Nothing about that Tweet or the following commentary in stream - that I read with fairness .. - claims it to be the best. I realize you're just speaking in jest. The consensus of the enthusiasts and a lot of officiate ... not hard to imagine the consumers haven't been giving the GGEM much notice. It's understandable - its had a hard earned neg-head reputation. It hasn't scored the big coup call to help meme new street cred. We do it in here in this social media, how 'old habits' and reputations die hard. Be that as it may, I noticed that the GGEM was becoming more Euro like in the D4-6 range, about two years ago my self. I'm sure for those objective met efforts out there, they've been noticing this, too. - keep in mind, "better" does not sell "good" in this context. Just that within itself, it has improved. As to its "goodness" ..I haven't paid particularly close attention to its performance with the dailies/deterministic aspects, so won't comment either way. Whether these upgrades improve it further or not, time will tell.

You sound like you've been talking to Mike Ekster ..though it's been quite awhile since we had this discussion. We noticed something similar with the ETA some 12 years ago, actually. It wasn't in conjunction with the psychology of the 'clown maps'. It was an idea that as the model's grid and processing became "too discrete," it begins to perturb within its own processing, and then runs away with it. Sort of like creating process fractals - kind of an interesting hypothesis. Maybe something like this fills the gap -explanation between "drilling down" and "resulting" there ( conjecture )

I wish Pivotal wouldn't render it's heights in 3 dam intervals... annoying

I guess that's about the right timing ... Now that the front-side of winters book-end blocking is about behind us and the deeper heights of winter press S into the HC remnants ... here comes the velocity soaking to wreck the days - Warned this would happen ... 5 years ago, and have every autumn since. I'm being snarky a little .. but it will be interesting to see if this goes ahead and damps the cool enso signal as efficiently as it belated the the warm ones. It's hard to identify either in the base flow, when the base flow is gradient saturated - it overwhelms the physics of standard R-wave distribution.

Ok, looks like the geostrophic wind is 70 to 80kts in the ambience - Still, that's a velocity anomaly that's numerically absorbing individual S/Ws.

That extended layout in the oper. Euro is maddening. You have a positive anomaly in the H500 at 30 N, and a deep negative anomaly near 70 N ... so you have huge gradient spanning everywhere. The resting wind velocity is probably buck 10 from S of Alaska to ...somewhere out in the N Atl. S/W's typically tote wind maxes along with them ... less than that velocity. That's basically suppression madness -

Interested in seeing the 12z EPS mean from this morning... I mean I wrote about this above earlier this morning, too - how it is evidenced not just in the 00z EPS, but the GEFs too, how the operational Euro is flat flow happy compared to these other means.

Doesn't work out that way ..even 'relatively' That's actually a cold look for us overall, which may or may not be discerned depending on who's looking..heh. But that deep Canadian vortex helps to reservoir cold that gathers mass from D4 right out to D10. Subtle confluence in the flow in the incredible gradient that sets up is going to then displace that cold under the westerlies .. Looking at the the 850s and surface evolution, that is evidently so - uh... that is, relative to this run.

Sell

Not a bad a 'base-line expectation modulator' - haha... seriously though, wind direction wind direction wind direction. It's more about that really than the scalar oceanic SSTs. Not that you don't know this - just sayn' Take this beast ... turned out to be an absolutely juggernaut storm right down to Logan Airport, and mooshed the rain/snow line down to almost the Born Bridge over 51 F SSTs out there in the Harbor and surrounding the Bay... on December 6, 2003. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20031207.html I remember that event's vitals, vividly - those cartoon-like images provided in that link above ( note "previous" and "next" day buttons, top left and right of the interfacing...), can take the viewer through days, but it does show the crucial details too well... Those were being discussed in the background Met communities, contention, over how that high pressure up there was so ideally situated and would effect/affect matters. It was a nasty cold anomaly source, real blue knuckle numbing -10 F DP at Fryeburgh Maine type stuff, and it was nosing exactly, perfectly to absolutely stop any warm intrusion of marine air. Can it be made more clear than that? hahaha. Warm ocean or not, there was zero way the coastal boundary, the perfunctory formation in those sort of situations, could have been physically allowed to move inland. And ...that turned out to be the right call. I lived in Winchester Mass at the time, a quaint upscale town tucked NW of Boston, immediately astride I-93. Basically the the last depot along Belmont, Arlington, Winchester vestige-axis of early last century money, before Woburn sketchiness kicks in. Although Woburn lapse over Mall money ..so. Anyway, Winchester's located maybe ..10 mi from the Revere/Lynn beaches. We wind shattered 20" of 20::1, with white out conditions.. I don't know if we had a blizzard warn - I wanna say they upgraded in the throws of it but don't quote. I remember visually limited to not more than about a 16th/ mi for several hrs though. It was neat storm to geek out over, too. Harvey Leonard was doing cut -ins about the progress of the rain-snow line as it was collapsing SE. We were 19 F in Winchester when Logan plummeted from 41 to 32, as the wind shifted from ENE gusting to 50+, to NNE, across like 4 minutes. They flash transitioned to near white out, never went back, mid way through the event. And one could see the unusually well-defined transition line on radar. Places were locking water and slush on power lines in a 40 --> 24 F, 10 min transition as the CF passed through over SE zones...It was awesome to see. That high pressure up there was just that quintessentially placed, it utterly smashed any typical oceanic conventions.

The EPS mean from 00z, days 6 thru 10, argues pretty strongly the Euro is over-correcting with that complete reversal it sold on that run. I am not sure ( cross-guidance consideration ) the GEFs means agrees with that either. The recognizable polar-stereographic layout of 500 mb anomalies ( as well as the overnight telecons that are based upon those numerical values ) offer more 'buckled' PNAP than neutral. Both it, and the EPS mean, have a whopper Date Line positive anomaly, maintained across multi-day continuity mind you. The standard R-wave distribution ( as a plausible corrective forcing ), argues for lowering heights NE of Hawaii, which concomitantly leads to rising heights into western N/A as the mass-loading/telecon suggestion. Short version, less support in its own cluster, or cross guidance. The only reason I'm spending much time with this tedium is because if anything, there's a bit of a storm signal ...particularly D8-10 out there, as both EPS and GEFs mean appearing to be oscillating the hemispheric amplitude into a meridian tendency.. The the flat oscillation is actually D4-7 and the Euro just sort of locks that beyond which doesn't appear supported.

We talked about this ages ago over the summer … ‘the universe appears to construct all off reality as though it were elementally from an analog engine’ One really crosses into the divide when they start to see and sense this, in the ephemeral realms of gestalt and circumstance, not just as recurrent physical themes.

They may end up looking similar but they got there entirely differently. “completely different leading set up” ?? If you want to cut it up that way all storms are the same because they all rotate counterclockwise - how about that. Lol

mm nah. Completely different leading set-up --> forcing synopsis.

Was nice before Trump made America great again ... back whence the Climate Diagnostic Center calculated the EPO index - it's hard to f'n find that now. I mean...it's not hugely necessary to see the numerical equivalence...we all recognize the precursors and loading patterns but still.

man, if that whole-scale structure were to cinema over easetern N/A about 400 mi E of present ... that would be a very, very high KU registry - Kinda interesting about that ...D7.5 - 8.5 looks like an ice storm prelude. The D8 even sets up pp that would DEFINITELY result in vicious barrier jet... But then that 55 unit v-max careens in and converts the whole thing into freak show. Actually, that trough has been in the run for 4 cycles ...gradually losing N-S and gaining longitude.. ( W--> E), fyi -

Do you think George should be allowed to see this Euro run ..?

Maybe we can cook up an ice deal D8

I think in this particular hemispheric canvas, if there's going to be a water-shed model run it's tonight's 00z that would be it. ...Altho, 18z's cycle may benefit from any augmented ingest. Relay is fast off the Pacific ...coming in on a narrow trajectory - historically, that's not exactly lending to improved model performance. The 00z run was still based off the scaffolding of assimilation over the ocean - in theory.. 12z has that nosing over land. The 00z Euro goes from positive tilt to this 12z airing more potency in neutral, with nuanced improvement in cyclone tendencies sooner ( I suspect ) for a reason. As we've hammered for a week... tho a +PNA, it is flat biased stretched and quite speed saturated. This is more error prone for textured reasons...

Euro perhaps a pube more interesting...