Typhoon Tip

We got forsythia bud swelling ... as much as can be discerned. They are small anyway.. But the lilac buds opening. There are some other random undergrowth shrubbery that appear triggered, and fields around town are green tinting. Major over hang tree/canopy types are still asleep. Although there some Dutch elm that look like they may be flowering, but those are mid growth ones in my town - they don't make it to old age before they succumb to the disease native to that species.

I know a couple dudes that got theirs ... They told me they were briefly counseled that the single one-and-done J&J shot is only 76% effective, BUT, is ( seems dubious to me but it is what it is ..) 100% supposedly effective at preventing severity - and by that meaning...no hospital stay and very, very low mortality if you do get it. The average bloke and gal, they are going to walk away from this anyway, though ...so that comes off as marketing spin. Hmm... I suspect what they are doing is really partially neutering the virulence ? - such that the average immune response self-resolves ... and that means by default that mortality and/or serious affliction percentages concomitantly and proportionately drop off to negligible. Otherwise, wtf does 76% efficacy mean ... Heh, I guess that works for me. It's a head cold that way... probably not a severe enough one to even miss a day doing anything. I know four people directly that have had COVID-19 ...( and the sprinkling in here...). So far, only 1 required hospitalization and he said to me that he was actually already rebounding for better when the doctor checked him in - he said it felt "forced" as a management decision because he had begun drinking and eating, and breathing better by that point, and the fever was sporadic and light by then. I dunno - The other shot is the double whammy .. but it is said to be 96% effective/ complete prophylactic prevention against the present ubiquitous variants ...so not even a sniffle.

With a 4 or 5 trillian dollar deficit hole ... nothing in here matters - eventually that has outpaced the systemic capacity to rebound, and the only way out, is a write- off ... which soon follows devaluation of the dollar to dangerous levels, of course... all which precipitates two societal-scaled events: mega collapse of markets; ... WAR ... "picking" some aspect of reality in the world, that is "suddenly" intolerable and requires interminable manufacturing effort to industrial a response to justify. - just like Eisenhower warned

I think I've figured it out ... ...there's an infiltration of climate deniers in the NCEP apparatus of personnel, strategically placed at calculated .. influential echelons. These good-at-math-while-somehow-mind-bogglingly-capable-of-believing-CC-is-not-real types have morality to match, and are squashing the CC signal by clandestinely manipulating the ongoing daily cinema of the modeling ...

Heh ... I'd take that over having the Labrador's anus strapped to our faces for 10 days... - it's a likeable trend, regardless of it's "fauxity" or not - Tomorrow is a candidate for MOS busting too cool if anyone begs me for my cherished opine ... I mean, totally different sensible appeal to today's soothing acid massage parlor. Both the NAM and the Euro... firstly, I don't get how these idiots are so cold on days like tomorrow's profile, all the time, every year ... since modeling began in the mid 1970s ... f! Did the modelers not get the celestial mechanic's departmental memo that went around 4.5 billion years ago ...informing that every year we begin actually adding new heat to the mid latitudes as the Equinox nears ? -5 C with whole gales kissing roof tops today ... understandable. But with 850 mb all the way to +5 C, light WSW flow, 0 clouds, in post Equinox microwave emitter sun eyeballing the Earth, the NAM has no where near the 73 the 850 mb adiabat supports. 63. Should be 70 tomorrow... It may stall at 63 - and leave me head scratching ...but I'm guessin' 64 . I'm willing to ablate that temperature for the notion that the mixing height probably doesn't get that tall... but 63 at KFIT is bullshit. Euro is 54 across the interior with light d-slope westerly flow, at 21 Z, under warm-ish 850 mb, and a UV index of 10 billion ..wtf

I just noticed the 00z EPS mean also bumped the flow a touch E of previous whole-scale structure ( re the lower -NAO coupled vortex), and that 'sort of' spares NE 'rhea loading, too. A bit more like the operational GFS frankly - That 00z ICON solution also tries to conserve more progressive overall appeal, too - so hoot and holler lol. We'll see how the 12z ambit behaves. That looks significantly in the EPS for D8 though ... It wouldn't be the first time a -NAO was mishandled in guidance ... Don't wanna get ahead of myself - could all roll back to the previous, sure. At least for the time being, these two seemingly innocuously different EPS means, doing "Previous" comparisons ( C/O Trop. Tidbits) would likely mean less direct assault from that asshole camping out there S of NS on the left (blw).

May be he meant 'the last wind event' in that context

Yeah...elevation definitely key .. As the sun rises and the BL tries to heat, that may draw some momentum downward due to turbulence- coupling, but this ordeal is also attenuating through the day so deeper roars may extinguish mid afternoon.

Wind personality has been different than some of these recent headline-able events - here in the Nashoba Valley Those were more frequent 45 mph window rattler gusts, with one or two creeking the rafters. This one only has the 'one or two' bigger ones, but the frequency bell-curve are more in 30 'ish. Really short lived... We probably are dead calm 8 pm with early decoupling in lower els... but this is a roll-under high pressure, so... probably the wind just goes light and veers SW at ORH ...and tomorrow ....depending on sun/insolation, may jolt back in 2-meter appeal considerable.

Just did interval comparison between the operational Euro and GFS. Remarkably good agreement through D5. Beyond that, the primary differences noted are in the handling of the expectant/emerging -NAO flow construct over the N/NW Atlantic Basin; thus, how it backwardly exerts on the flow ( which is a misnomer because I still believe the NAO is a non-linear wave function dispersal model that is ultimately controlled by the flow off the Pacific, but that's 'sides the point ) . The Euro positions an impressive +3 or +4 SD blocking ridge straddling the 55 W; contrasting, the GFS places it variation of that emerged feature ( similar amplitude ) closer to 45/50 W. That is seemingly subtle, but it may profoundly provide better or worse sensible weather for New England depending .. A Euro solution probably pins one of the mass-balancing coupled, mid U/A cyclonic nodes that typically surround those ridges, more toward NS/outer GOM ( pretty much what you see out there D8.5 in the oper. run). A GFS solution stretches the flow off NE more...and this shears the vortex and orients the deep layer flow more westerly over our region. Euro = rectal glue GFS = remarkably pleasant - and least way more so than prior runs I can see reasons, valid ones, to argue pros/cons for each solution, just about evenly. A Euro solution is so ugly ( for spring/warmth enthusiasts) that one could even manufacture a snow event out of that - if noise rolled those dice right. A GFS on the other hand is more attractive. It probably does hang up an in-out BD scenario across 4 or 5 days, but there would be nape/mild ones in there - at which point ... balanced against April climatology, one should dust off and thank their lucky stars and move right along and be happy. I'll just add this is the 2nd cycle in a row this new GFS version has bumped the -NAO orientation, overall, more easterly in structure. Also, the D0 to D5 overall agreement with the Euro is interesting ( as an aside) because the previous GFS version was consummately lowering heights too much and had trouble ever really matching the Euro's overall gradient, routinely by D3's ...Maybe we'll see some better performance from this new kid on the block. But, part of the GFS cold bias/N/stream bully tendencies from the previous version tended to stretch fields to atone for the velocity surplus it then has to handle because of all that. The Euro could be overly conserving curvature in that range, because it does that ends up with an amplitude bias pretty routinely, which could atone for its looke too ... so yeah, pros and cons on both sides.

Yeah.. frankly, if this were a month ago, I'd be advising to just let it marinade... It would probably produce snows. We've had major snow storms this late of course ...we can't forget that... And, a potency of this -NAO is glaring. i just don't like the flow relaxation that flashes through the medium of the hemisphere at D7 to 10 ... that makes me wonder if this -NAO is "over ridged" out there ...it's like +4 SD dome in the operational Euro, with the surrounding medium almost neutral and that's bad conservation of mass there... The other aspect is that relaxing flow shortens wave-lengths so...it's unclear if that happens, how this -NAO will effect our region. yeah just saw the 18z GFS and it sort of gets us into a WNW dry seasonal flow as opposed to the EPS... fwi'not'w lol. But there's a waving BD... and Maine might be hosed still in that look.

Come to think about ... in a May 2005, 20th -30th redux taking place in early April... we're probably adding to seasonal snow totals pretty significantly - this f'n thing may not be over

Almost smacks a bit of May 2005 ... I'm gonna take a look -

I get it that not many give a shit about this sort of thing... but...I see the height gradient everyone abruptly relaxing across a lot of guidance out there just beyond D6 and by 10, some 3 or 4 in the count from the subtropical latitudes to 70 N are reduced,...slackening the integrated gradient across the whole domain when that happens... I don't think that it is a geophysical coincidence that just about in tandem the height nodes pop off with those ridges at higher latitudes. It makes sense at a baser conceptual level - fast flows are progressive; retrograde flows - to which -NAOs are a part - tend to be slower. In this case the relay from the fast to slow is seemingly as though cause to effect responsive - like the fast flow that presaged, caused the blocking -

It has only been on-line for 3 ..4 days though ? ...give or take. which is good for at or < 4 days - I think perhaps expectations on modeling could at times use a reality tap on the shoulder. But, most of the problems with it is/were in the middle+ ranged handling. We'll have to see how the mid range, D4 to 7 starts to fall out in the verifications. During the last few weeks just prior to the the roll-out, I did notice the same shenanigans of lowering ( tending to..) heights too much on the polar side of the ambient westerlies, ...which tends to augment the already velocity saturated hemisphere that much more. The speeding aspect/progressive shit's related to a separate causal circuitry ..but the GFS physics seems to then add to that - effectively, cloaking that has that bias. The N/stream dominance is another way to conceptualize ...it just has too much 'main band' power ..but it is an aspect the emerges out in time/gathering momentum .. such that mid range more so than the first four days is when it is noticeable. But it's funny - because who has the right to complain about a D6 model solution anyway -

The 00z entire modeling technology ambit was interminably worse, too - what a godless pattern that is ... Regardless of race, creed, color or country of origin, pick a model ... the are unredeemable. Euro displays D10, 850 mb warm plumes over the D. Straight/lower Greenland regions to +2 C in pockets, while Maine is -12 C at 850 ..failing that 2nd bold notion as though by agenda to do so. Just perfectly wrong setting up NOT getting us to your "back door" idea of suppression - I mean it may ultimately get there.. who knows, but zippo redemption model run for anything beyond D7. I'm leaving New England March 15 to May 3rd every year ... just need a windfall. Not sure how you people can live like this As an aside, something like that happened in the 2010 winter, when a -6 SD west based NAO brought what pretty much amounted to a planetary storm to the M/A ... that theory of L/W being the real event, and each S/W is like a single squall within. For a couple of weeks, Maine was getting mild and sunny from the Atlantic.. while DC was handing out 18" events from Pez clicks. I wonder if that larger circulation circumstance can actually pay 'bootleg dividends' in spring though... The difference between the winter variant of that synoptic scenario occurring now...is the sun. During the solar nadior, roughly November 8 to February 8, the difference in insolation and diabatic differentiation across the hemisphere is actually a smaller gradient than now...when it Atlanta GA and Boston MA and NF are on a thermal slope. That changes "what" is backing SW a bit ... Lol, I don't think anyone's ever done a qualitative scientific, formally framed up work/paper that discusses being butt-boned in New England -

I'm hoping the roughly 2/3rds of the GEFs members that are nudging the block ballast more E in stature are onto something and the whole aspect ends up an east based NAO. I think an east based NAO and a PNA that stops rising at neutral might be workable and not as bad as some of those/these early cold washes wanna sell - but we'll see.

It's all predicate on the assumption that the -NAO will pan out.. . Complicating/adding to that, some of the individual GEF members east-base the NAO block - we all know that matters. Plus, the wave lengths are trying to shorter pretty much right on top of the late mid and extended range - like it's the time chosen this particular go of it to do that particular large scale flow modulation. That also complicates - We'll see how it all aligns. The GEFs from last night say we April blue bomb ( above seasonal probability to do so...), but the EPS and operational Euro ... and the operational GFS are trying to be flatter over the western domain of the NAO region - the shallowing/normalizing of the lower Maritime vortex as noted by Brian is an example of that hem-hawing... Lord knows I don't want it - just being objective.

Winter starts in April if GEFs gets its way... Five nights of banging negative NAO with a huge rise in the PNA… It’s going to prove to y’all not to discount Tele connectors so early in the season for one but secondly ...indicates a seriously f*ed up spring until mid May “IF” that happens... Originally I had surmise the possibility that as the flow relaxed, the Lanina would maybe take over and we ‘d end up with a warmer spring consistent with that longer-term ENSO footprint ... that doesn’t seem to be emerging - Instead we are manufacturing the same shit that happened for the last five years… Which is to say the flow relaxes—> blocky notes pop —> seasonal rollback screwed

Terrible extrapolation from D5 to 6 on this Euro ... that screams as over modification of the flow do to correction scheming they wash their solutions with at that seam. Just look at the southern aspect of the trough at D 5, and not that it is sloping positive and weakening, as it should against high heights over the SE ... Yet, D 6...it just suddenly materializes all that mechanical power?

I gotta do that too ...shit. kicking myself for not doing it last Sunday in that 67 high sun dry air. Woulda been fast -

Lol, it matters none in "Napril" ...because that means it was a warm so it didn't - but in general? It matter in April's wholeheartedly. I have notice folks peddling out the index correlation seasonality stuff lately...and as usual, they don't get it or it comes off as though it's absolute - like a light switch. "Up, -NAO and + PNA doens't mean anything now, phew -" WRONG Look, there's a 'gestation' ... it takes time for that to become the case, every year. It's not an April 1 or May 1 or June 1 requirement. hahha. It starts slowly...and over weeks and weeks and weeks, you end up at a state where the PNA and NAOs and the whereever she blows mean less. In April? Holy hell - particularly the front side of that month, we are in the still heavy end of still gonna matter! In fact, I'd strongly suggest not ignoring this, .... at least for the time being. And if it ends up mattering less, it won't be because the PNA didn't correlate - it would be because the pattern didn't verify. Two different things.

Yeah... I mean really - it's less ( at this stage of the game of "climate monitoring" if people feel less confident or comfortable labeling it as 'change' ) about losing March as a winter-defined month, and more about just instability in wild swings

I suspect a 00z Euro-like layout is the likeliest general impact re that latter Sunday. I might even edge the verified faster to leave if anything; it would fit seasonal trend ( which is really more like a dedadal trend ...) to do so - systems lose curvature of structure, modulating .. pulled/stretched in the models, due to speeding up in time. I think that last predicate phrase is the main cause for why so many 'bigger events' in the extended times seldom get into shorter range without significantly minoring out, fwiw - But I am noticing the westerlies are getting faster for next week .. right on schedule again. This has probably been a 'canvas correction' that's been going on in all guidance all along...where the ambient velocities ( we call that geostrophic wind ..) are consummately correcting faster from D10s to D4s ...and that, right there, could simplify the search for why these bombs end up smeared whimpers so often. Yep... round and 'round we go ...end up right back into HC expansion causing hemispheric compression against boreal winter heights... I'm digressing but it is indirectly related, and why I am not ready to sans the notion of a big -NAO at some point in April. It's 'thermal rebound' - basically... the flow finally does relax as these heights N of 50th finally fill...and when that happens, there's a window were latent heat dumps into those regions and we get that blocks in springs. Trouble is, .. that is at statistical odds with the La Nina footprint ( that supposedly...) in the general planetary system right now. This latter signal is a flatter 'ridgier' warmer April ... diametrical to a -NAO. Lol. blah blah but HC shit is fighting the La Nina spring in that sense ... hm

We got stuck with the paint-spill-on-the-freeway look... It's my euphemism for when the ongoing traffic of synoptic cloud patternization glides over top a permanent white substrate on hi res visible satellite looping ... said substrate is strata and murk too dense to allow the sun through. It reminds me of white latex paint outta the back of a stoned house painter's van on a road surface with cars flyin over it It can 'burn' off but there's just enough of said real cloud over top to slow that process... It's like yesterday...probably we wait until 18z to clear out and there goes our thunderstorm threat - .. Lol, f'n March in region proven to be a convection sink anyway - what were we thinkin'