Typhoon Tip

March 1956 snowed north of 80% of that year's annum climo in the upper M/A and I believe that involved NE too - It is April that is the cruelest month ... I mean, if one's personal druthers meant more than a turd's worth of any consideration ... I start waning on winter enthusiasm really fast toward the end of February's myself. By then, two weeks have gone by after the end date of the perennial solar nadir - that being Feb 10 at our latitude. You can feel the sun's winning on the face and forearms, or how Kevin so oft waxes poetry about those warming sensations that kiss his napes... Heh, the futility of holding onto winter in those days is like when you're watching an awesome movie ignoring taking a piss - only gets worse and worse.. Finally, you have to go do it - in this case..admit it. For some, it takes until June 1 but - It is the fact that out of nowhere it's 6:07 pm and there still some daylight left .... and the next week we bump clocks... We are falling uphill out of winter, and it's sad coming in here and reading through eye-rolling denial - lol... Yeah, I guess some years we hit a pine bow on the way up and breaks our "fall" into depression, if for an instant of hesitation around some late anomalies - or, we outright hit a trampoline like in '56. But most years ... it tends to be over - I just love summer, and heat tracking patterns .. and crispy TCUs ... My nostalgia is just as strong for summer fair - and I enjoy long days, smells of lilacs, fresh cut lawns.. Perfume from some milf in line next to me at an ice cream shop. I miss the aroma of barbecues, or that pungent sweetness of a distant thunderstorm's body odor. I don't really experience the NEGATIVE variant of the S.A.D. condition, that mirror form; and it's recognize by the ... you know, national psycho-babble institute of brain-boxes ... It's rarer though, but real, and afflicts ~15% of the population in the same was normal S.A.D. does ( which I think the crucible of time has distilled the user ship of this social media ) ... Where the 'darkness' and cold temperatures grade on people's joy and functional circuitry in 'normal' S.A.D., these opposing ilk get that in summer. The thought of summer actually causes these individuals anguish if not pain. Interesting... but, anyway, don't discount March -

Posters doing a fine job capturing the essence of the end week and early next week pattern predicament - FAST! Not much to add there... There is a presentation in the GEFs ...and clearly the EPS too, albeit weak .. for Feb 8 - something is there. But I would pass on the oper. Euro hyper bombs ideas.. In fact, the 00z notion of weak to middling low bombing on exit and being a much bigger ordeal more so up in the NS/lowr Maritime of Canada isn't a bad fit. But like I've said in the past - these models don't arrive to 'physically impossible' solutions.. either. Those previous Euro runs were happening mid way through a compression flow - so there is going to be inherent sensitivity/model error there. Fact of the matter is...yeah, you can get a fast moving bomb out of an open wave. Friday in the foreground here is not a 'real' concern - it never was in my mind. It's a leading baroclinic entry into a new pattern and cutter phenomenon - typically associated to a newly arriving -EPO/quasi -EPO cold loading event. Yeah, sometimes if luck prevails ...we'll get a 3000 km occluded boundary to a triple point near the NY Bite ...and squeeze a fast moving forgettable snow-ice-cool rain before the modified arctic air mass floods in behind recements.. It's been that way in all models and ensembles and is climatologically sound, too - so there's not really much room there ... I am something just shy of intrigued by the Feb 11-15 period of time however. That one - should the 8th fast mover sort of thing fail - might be the next period of time for something of interest.

Phew ... good night's sleep last did little to elixir 'event fatigue' - ... ... don't know about y'all but I'm ready to sign off on this and let it etch it's legacy upon tomb stone of weather history. 14" is a slight positive bust, but interestingly ... now-cast efforts lent to an "intra -storm now-cast negative bust" When I tuned off for the night ... we were ahead of schedule on accumulation rates, and the appeal out of doors was striking - really. I had objectively observable blizzard conditions raging at my location, with only soupcon of weakening tendency in the overall radar coverage at the time .. ~ 11:30 pm... At that time, I had just topped a foot of accumulation. While there may be some argument over model interpretation this and that, from x or a source...about an additional .5 or even .7" liq equiv from 1am to 7am was expected.. So totals in the range of 16-20" seemed increasingly likely by a combination of now-cast and recent updater model types...etc..etc.. Wrong ... C/o NCAR's radar history ...it appears to have just blanked off almost abruptly after that faithful hour last night ... I doubt very many saw that specificity taking place ...Or perhaps they'll claim they did - but that's them venting by impugning others ( another fun petty emotion-fueled head-bag that goes on in here when a taint of bitterness gets into the final tea taste of some event being vested in...) Excluding that form of persecution, this thing literally just evaporated on radar within about 2 hours of crashing last night, and when that happens - in my experience - the snow rates actually dwindle prior to the radar completely drying out, too... I am willing to bet this was down to S- with blowing S ... save for isolated/SE where some CF enhancing (I'm guessing ...) fuzzed the rad for some fake stuff... pretty ubiquitously going by that radar animation of the overnight. Synoptically, this thing's light switched just up and turned off on us rather abruptly. Nevertheless, I haven't actually formally gone out and begun to exhume myself from the 4' berm the plow operators attempted to inter us with overnight - at which point I'll make it official ... So, I guess my town must have a new guy on the job. Mother f'er! Every resident on my street lives on the same side.. In the 10 years I have lived here, we have cycled through this dog-and-pony show three separate times. It should be obvious ... it should. Look, no one wants that/those type of town gigs... so, the ones that end up there ( sorry liberals .. stereotypes are only wrong because they are true, and you just hate facing the truth - that's code for F U! ) prove time and time again to lack circumspect based up situational awareness based upon what IS F'ING OBVIOUS! Now, someone's going to have to wade through and flag the guy, cup of coffee in hand, ...and kiss his ass. With strategic, appreciative platitudes the exchange hopefully gets to the goal of ... 'Oh, yeah ...sure,' Next storm, the berm is on the opposite side of the street. DUH

12” S/ blowing S. 1/4 mi vis 29/29

Verified a blizzard here

1/8 mi vis S++ / blowing S turbine gusts 11.5” 29/29

Same here. tremendous blowing plumes with S+ closing on 10”

I’m nicking 8” now heavier burst the last 2 hrs delivered 3.25” 29/29 S+ and blowing S. Vis 1/4 mi or less in gusts as of 10 min ago

Will hold off on a thread pending the overnight trends - we'll be flirting with D5 tomorrow and this present ordeal in the foreground has a long way to go and needs attention. In the meantime, subtle GEFs ens mean and spread trended toward the EPS on this 18z This whole thing is whack unusual... Firstly, I have never seen a successful two stream/subsume scenario at a velocity saturation as huge as that end of the week period. Timing is critical or bi-pass and shearing results, and the easiest way to bust open that delicate harmonic is to intruduce speed to the flow and rob away from the S/W involved. The Euro compensates for this by having 175 kt 500 mb S/W mechanical wind max!!! ZOMB ... So the surrounding field can balance at 100 ... 110 kts, and there still PVA because of the wind differential just moved up the scale - but c'mon.. This isn't Jupiter.. The end result is that the entire planetary torque budget gets exhausted over Concord NH LOL.. hyperbolic, but that model started it - jerk... I suspect what we may be heading for in reality is an progressive ...albeit mechanically endowed and potent open wave. This could be ANA or NJ Model low/ quick cyclogen ... Sort of 1987 Novemeber as weak analog - The 12z Euro particulars are interesting in that the whole event is pretty lengthy ...around 18 to 22 hours ... but, only by virtue of the fact that it is ginormous in scope and scale. As a cyclone when in the formulative stages at 144 hours, it's total circumvallate, which includes primary in Ohio, and a secondary near Cape Hat. ... encompasses almost the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS pan-dimension... My gosh, and you are looking at that, and you know that can only go to one destiny: an atmospheric super massive black hole ...Sure enough, what is that 168 ... -5 SD up in N NH? But because it is so large, it's going to take that long to bore its way into eastern Canada from SE Coast... I also noticed at Pivotal .. that solution never turns to rain NW of the Canal - it's like one of those mid Canadian deals where the warm sector smells like rain but is wet snow showers... Pure N/stream .. just using the S/stream red-headed step child

this stuff is like dust bunny density - S, 1/2 mi 5.5" 27/27

Does CIPs hit foreign guidance ?

est 1/3 mi vis but mid-sized aggregates now.. 26/26. 3" Ayer

See how that opens up down there near the bottom edge/over the head of the Ches. Bay... I wonder if there's some entrainment/fold phenomenon there...

heh... I takes a special sort of scenario to take a 10-16er and positive bust that - wow

Now passing through the lull between the S NH band and the midriff once approaching from the S, and the vis DID NOT improve... interesting ' Also. ..that band over southern RI over to New Bedford down there is less like a 'band' and more like a giant mass... ominous looking... Back building and pilling in like that.. wow

495 was striped last night by DPW cruise ... but in this sting cold and with wind ... not sure what the m.o. plan of management is - It's a durational event I had a feeling we may observe some posting content that "sounds" like they know it's through Tuesday but planning for an 8 to 10 hour ordeal - umm. lol. Years of previous season's fast mover behavior ...might influence. But folks, 12z Tuesday the heights bottom out and the low is just SE of ISP or on ISP. Now ... typically, that circumstance is like Homer in hell strapped to a donut stuffing machine, only in this case ... snow, and a climate CCB band runs west down the Pike like Ray ahead Super Troopers... Even if not ...this dies a slow death. I wouldn't at all be surprised if some people unexpectedly awoke tomorrow with a 'tenting' issue around some cars. Where? I dunno - in principle though, that happens... not shocked. This is busting positive in my opinion - didn't have the balls to pull the trigger personally.. But if the range was/is 12 to 18 .. I would go with a range of 18. Not sure I buy those deep snow holes E of Alb and west of the Worc hills... Dent it? ...okay.. I don't think we have grid/power concerns with wind fracturing pow-pow not sticking ... And wind alone west of the CF probably is forgettable.

Seems per Will's rad up there ...this band along and immediately N astride rt poop has materialized over the last hour. We were 'fuzzy' at 1.5 mi vis for a couple hours and then this materialized ahead of the band we've been tracking which is still S of here. There's even a relative lull between - interesting

Definitely the heaviest snow I've witnessed this season at this location in Ayer, right now - Vis reduced to 1/4 ~ 1.5" 26/26

really - wow I'm 1/4 mi vis here in Ayer ... maybe 1/3 but it's definitely < 1/2 mi and have been going on an hr

Someone in that Jersey band is getting over 40" ... they were in the 15"+ VIP lounge as of noon and that was prior to that weird pivot-point thunderstorm calibre stationary sequencing going on radar. That reminds me of 1997 Dec 23 rad rates down there, and when that '97 thing passed through here... we got 14" in 3 hours... I can't imagine what that will do down there if that persist through the evening - got to figure that unless we hit something truly historic, that's gonna wanes some how some way. So, I am 26/26 and 1/2 mi vis here in Ayer. 1" so far... This 'fuzzy' area out ahead of that strong-ish band presently rotating N has been snowing harder than rad... It makes me wonder if the higher ratio snow is helping there... And I figure when that band(s) pivot on through we'll stack better for a couple hours in each. getting nasty out there folks -

Looking at the GEFs trend now ... ... we're gonna need another thread for this -

I mean as is ... - also, quite necessary that we fail to keep Kevin's pendulum any hope of equitably in check lol but, I don't think that type of thing will A happen ... but B, if it does? that proooobably has to squeeze a triple point ... The initial cold does have some modest +PP up N helping so I bet that gets feedback on BL resistance just enough.. But man, that may be the nearing the upper envelope of what the Terran atmosphere can physically force. Those are 150+ kt circumvallate winds around the SPV subsuming trough ... frankly, I have never heard of anything like that succeed - I haven't. Subsume physics are delicate wave harmonics - that's like a poor schmuck choral conductor attempting to reign an angry throng of trumpeting pachyderms into song

up here N. Mass along Rt 2 ... vis down to 1.5 mi in 20:1ers so starved of liq phase state they occasionally fall skyward ..rising. already blowing snow off the roof eves, too - even though it's like .25" of fractured dust down 26/22

I'm wondering if the fact that essentially the southern half of NJ is getting boned lower than all that various snow product/guidance and other more standard QPF layouts had going in, is perhaps a trend teller ... I'm staring like good dweeb would at Dupage's hi res vis loop ( https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ) and it occurs to me that the cloud production and fanning out motion that extends just S of LI's length ( which is the axis of 850/700 mb elevated frontal slop ), is probably not going to situate S again ...and those regions are thus screwed - Hmm. Just wonder if it's trending everything NE

I like the "why" part of that though ... as in ... too many doubters that do so defensively because they don't want to admit to a circumstance that gets their hopes up lol ' - j/k