Typhoon Tip

Agreed over all with implied/explicit limitations vs oddities in various guidance. NAM is weirdly cold biased for tomorrow imho - I personally don't believe the NAM is right about the T1 temp over Logan between 18z to 00z tomorrow. It's T1 ( 980 mb sigma ...about mid way up the Prudential Tower in eye-ball sense) is too cold in the FOUS grid.... given/relative to its own synoptic layout even. It appears overly conserving the 900 to surface lapsing rate from today brief cool down.. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM succeeds here... I suspect the model's maybe hyper sensitively environmentally aware of the Long Island sound? not sure tho - I was wondering/considering if the wind direction might be mixing in cold oceanic boundary layer from the S, over eastern zone as culprit. ALB is warmer at 19C and that's a red flag for this - the impetus being there is no vomit cold shelf waters upstream of that location. Labrador current condemns this climate to hell in the spring and summer. ...I really almost want to relo out of New England...the older I get, the more I resent this geo anus.

A Friday rain-out wouldn't be the worse moral-ethical thing to "suffer". Most guidance worth using are opening skies to sun, with light wind by dawn on Saturday... Cool drink of water morning vibe to the atmosphere. But +5C 850mb by Saturday afternoon, amid a N flow that is sort of d-slope, most MOS will probably be over assessing the cool complexion at this range - guaranteed. They'll be assuming a lapse mixing depth of 900 mb which is too shallow under solar max. Now, if it stayed cloudy ... different setting. It's interesting the polar jet is getting more dominating in the guidance ... it's that super synoptic "tuck" tendency f up summer again - but ironically..it's confluence big bubble no trouble us. Otherwise, would be about perfect timing for making ends meet with hydro maintenance, while not f'ing up everyone's weekend - ... Or, we can go back to the runs from two days ago that put all that mess on Sunday/Monday... I agree the GFS is not likely to succeed over the late weekend. I also think there's potential convective rain in the fore' here on Wednesday. Descent theta-e/SB CAPE, ..in a well mixed deep SW flow boundary layer with ample heating through 18z. Sending an open mid troposphere impulse with a wind max's right exit region nosing into the area may find sufficient triggers in Lake boundaries and/or hill tops over PA/NY and send some activity quickly E ... I think lapse rates may only be so-so just judging by the more modest height falls.. But 90/72 bath is high octane with even subtle height falls collocated with an approaching jet max toward 00z ... we'll see. SPC does have the eastern Lakes/OV and NE in "MRGNL" ... That smacks as the type of scenario where they wait until the morning of that day to upgrade.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later Sunday with the primary hazard being brief locally damaging wind gusts. Greatest risk will be across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, including Cape Cod and the Islands.

Ho man ...helluva story. Yeah I've been alive long enough and heard this anecdotally that you cross over an awareness-numbness threshold when it comes of frost bite - if you're enduring the discomfort then it gets strangely less painful ...that's bad.

Opening up to disrespect and 'blaming the messenger' as though he/she is merely making it up ...but every home station within 5 miles of Ayer is 89 to 91 and KFIT is reporting 90 as a high... So, shaving the max at these home stations for standard 'rube calibration' puts the day's high in contention of making 90. By the way, we've been > 80% insolation here for 3 hours now despite the polish on the hi res vis imagery ...although a bit of denser band is coming over now.. Also... season's last snow finally upon us:

Are you guys diabetic ... wow - I guess dropping an oak stairwell on one's toe is a special sort of bad day ... but there is an alarming number of people just in here - 'nough to wonder if there's some genetic weather enthusiasm connective gene for black toe

It'll be an interesting route to the top temperatures around the area - see who ends up where. I looked around at post-guidance ...seems the upper level clouds ( judging by the sat presentation and loop ) are more the ceiling issue ...not mid level - not that it matters..just what I'm observing. That said, the > 500 mb RH handling was not particularly good in the guidance - some had it ..but didn't in all cycles ... so it's dubious. But here were are - Where we are is not horrible for heating. It's taxing the ability, no doubt! But the day-glow lamp sky does heat some. It may thin a little as the sounding gets warped by the sun heating cloud particles/physics over those ceiling levels... and that'll help. The wick is very primed though...doesn't take a lot of radiation input to set the temp rising. We are 80 here averaging home stations within a Ayer, and KFIT Meso west/UA is 79 ...(edit: actually 81 now) It will be tediously nerdy to see if the index finger rule of "ten after ten" can apply under a milk sky but fun for us tedious nerds haha.

Mm... at 168 - 216 hours out in time, 'big changes' is a relative phrase, I suppose - Short version: Personally, there is no way I can trust the models are capable of handling those delicate features and their evolution, through that deep period of time - . Longer version/angry rant: It can happen. But first off, in a more operations sense ...about 3/4 of the GEFs 00z individual members do not support that operational GFS's pessimism with the same dogged determination as though NCEP ( as usual by the way...) is seemingly actually parameterizing its model to rasp heights toward cold February beyond 3 days always regardless of Celestial mechanics. - tfwiw... Imho, it wouldn't take "big changes" because the features being toted along by the Euro/GGEM blend ( with the GFS along for the ride as circus clown..) are very fragile from what I'm seeing. They carry just a single closed contoured feature through a nebular gradient, and use said weak entity to impact all this wet havoc along the I-95 to corridor from roughly Jersey to Maine... Heh - I'm not sure I buy that. It just looks disproportionately violently forcing for such a weak impulse. But also the bigger coup de gras for me is that ... normal vicissitudes of chaos vs model skill? in order for the runs to maintain fragile structures out in time, requires that their skill at predicting/emerging nuance proportionally drop down to a discrete level where they are just not capable of performing. I mean, in this case ..that 570 dm single closed contour sneaking along at this range is like tethering a butterfly at the end of a thousand mile quantum thread. It's likely to have a bit of an uncertainty trajectory at the end of that string. That's why big huge historic events of any kind show up in models early, is because their physical presence in the atmosphere are that dominating; so that they can absorb chaotic influences emerging along a normal constructive and destructive sea of influences. It's getting philosophical and unlikely to be read do to word count meets with the shimmering virtuosity of Twit-western Civility ... but, I've often thought that every event that emerges in the deeper time ranges of these guidance ...all have an acceleration potential. But predicting the "destructive" nuances, culminating over time, and whether they will out-weigh the "constructive" nuances, ..dictates if the acceleration - if the system will increase or decrease its 'systemic weight' in the circulation as it nears in time. That's the gist of why these models have a theoretical skill limite - because all the math and electrons are just timber of gods voice - not that asshole's motivation. and also... what we learn in as undergrads that there really is no way to actually forecast chaos - lol

Magine if there ever were a leave it lie apocalypse ... archeologists might dig those up one distant future day ... pop one open like a Chinese Century egg ...

We’re 9 miles east of Fit along rt 2. 88 was the high yeah. Not 90 but hot enough... summer in like a wall ran around in a sweat ball swearin at missing screws and misplaced last years insolation strips but the AC’s are in and rumblin

KFIT 86/54 now Feels and smells of deep summer here. And yes ... summer air has a distinct aroma to it -

I bet tomorrow is uncomfortable - Acclimation is down yet - we haven't seen very high DPs ...actually, scratch that - we haven't seen ANY appreciable DPs. We're up over 50 already, and it is noticeable when over 80 ... In fact it is 85/55 around town here. I could imagine home-stations 60-64 DPs tomorrow, while it's 91 hover temp over driveways and patios. May seem abrupt - Not the hottest we've seen by a long stretch - no... but, it is early to do so before June 1 ... and, no one is used to that ... Today I think shows/warns of the heat potential to this air mass kind of sneaking up..? We were 72 at noon here under this cloud shadow - it peeled away and we bounced 12 in an hour!

84 KFIT to Ayer along Rt poopie ... Big bounce happened about an hour back.... Clouds held us down and it was as though the atmosphere was spring loaded - boinnng Also, DPs 52 to 55 is technically not supposed to be humid but today's 84 feels decidedly different than it did two days back along with 37 DP .. no question. Looks like I was overly pessimistic about the recovery today - heh. I mean it may yet be 87 here at this rate ... we typically don't max until 4:30 here

It's being exaggerated by the cloud back-building thing as I was describing... that factor appears to be vacating albeit slowly. We are 74 here in town in Ayer despite the clouds... we won't get to BTV competitively ...but we'll probably be 80 ... Sat trends are struggling to disperse but are doing so at a slow rate of decay... The day glow sky is warm to the face so there's 'some' insolation getting through lol... But, the sounding would of had us 83 by now - looks like a clean 10 F stolen thus far ...and it's really a narrow band at this point. In fact, KFIT is 9 mi by crow, sky opened up there and they bounced to 79 so fast it may be 80 or 81 by the time I'm done typing this run-on sentence -

I can't prove this but ...I think that weak backdoor boundary that pivoted into a N-S orientation and moved to a position near Albany .. is still there albeit very diffused, perhaps below coherency so WPC analysis isn't seeing it.. The N end of that boundary has move back E and the S end is still smeared over CT.... and it's hung from BDL-GOM or so. This back building cloud pattern that's stealing our warm day here is casting the allusion on satellite of flopping over said "imaginary" axis ...probably where said front "doesn't exist," that sensation in the butt along that axis ...somehow sorta kinda denies WPC's current surface analysis - lol. ******* The 'over-top' heat events are becoming May dependable ... The cause for them is related to the reason October snow events have increased frequency spanning recent decade(s)... I can't prove this other than 'educated conjecture,' either, but it appear to be caused by seasonal procession in the autumns, and seasonal lag in springs. I know why the climate is behaving this way - yet again... I can't prove it from here either but it is what it is... sparing a dissertation no one will read ... [ imagine a menagerie of vaguely intelligible multi syllabic prose here ] Conclusion: I therefore predict above the 1900 to 2000 year's worth of climatology-based probability, that this October will again feature snow...or an air mass definitively capable of doing so; and that next May, if there is a not a pattern where it is scalar hotter than DCA and PHL ... BTV will average warmer relative to climatology comparing -... Bank it ...until such time as the polar regions warms up oh say ... 20 C and the gradient of the hemisphere finally stops sending commercial airlines over seas at 10% the speed of light - .. the year 2070 and a clean 150 years ahead of rationalizing winter brain apprehension to admit winters are dying at mid latitudes...

Lol ... it's because of this maybe ?

15 mi wide shit streak will bust temps low over the interior/E Probably wasn't too well modeled as it's too discrete... It'll likely disperse but 10 F stolen perhaps ?

my guess BDL 89 Sun 75 Mon 91 Tue ... I believe that warm sector becomes more coherenty expressing in the guidance as we near on that day ...a diffused boundary whisks through with no inhibition and the models will bite in time and send the temp and DP more than machine guidance suggests at this time. NBM extended products are shirking that potential in my mind... with a rather abrupt turn around and a "soaring" behavior on temp... I could see a cirrus glump- milk sky at 12z ...maybe even a mid level deck showers ... then 10 ... 11 am it's an open sky steam bath - mind you..I'm visualizing that. It may not be 'in' the guidance per se right now... But as the region is just subsumed by that deep layer tropospheric signal in the Euro - I just appears to be the better fit for trend and telecon ( even tho the latter is fading correlation in theory...). The NAO is pulses positive in a heavily concerted manner ... The westerlies may get pulled N of N/A as a 'correction vector'

Sneaky big heat signal next week ...? Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 227 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 Valid 12Z Mon May 24 2021 - 12Z Fri May 28 2021 ...Record heat likely for portions of the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic next week... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd The other aspect that I think has a chance to grow as a risk awareness/need is that the transition between that mid week roll-back heat and the flat wave seasonal front there after, that appears to be favorable general severe layout. It's obviously way ...way early for convection deterministic anything. This is purely just recognizing generality. But a 90/70 type air mass with a polar jet running by to the N is precarious.. This weekend throughout next week has been a goodly agreed upon progression of synoptics by the Euro and GGEM cluster ... Easy forecast - relatively speaking... - through D8 or so. We break the present warm anomaly briefly Monday ... but by 18z that day, both models and their ens means have been stalwart indicating the the polar high pressure just up and all but completely loses identity by that hour; in fact, what's left of it regroups S with west wind taking over possibly still during those long sloped sun hours of a late May day ... Could see a late high T at Logan? Those are neat ...you think the high is 69, then the next day out of nowhere you're looking at the data and they snuck a 75 in there whaaa ... Tuesday has 570 dm thickness in an unabated continental warm conveyor moving up over the arc of this flat ridge at early as 12z ... GGEM is a bit stingy but has the general idea... The Euro's +18 C at 850 mb over a laminar SW flow to the surface and even 50% sun will likely see that be the adiabatic temperature ... I wouldn't be surprised if this whole thing starts to move records up the coast.. it wouldn't take but another half inch of parametric spacing on these charts, should the ridge do that and balloon just a little more.

What about Saturday - American models ... I think they typically erode around the periphery of ridges - I've ad nauseam explained how the GFS does this systemically to the extent of it becoming an unusable model beyond ~ D3s in general... But, it could be lending to it's having more Saturday QPF in the region ...circa 21z ...? ( So implicitly, I don't trust it - ) This pattern's version of the 'bigger heat day' will in place that day. Then late-ish afternoon the GFS swaths a broken QPF band. I don't even get the feel that is convection on its charts at TT. It is almost as if the model is painting broken strata-form rain passing over the top of near 90 heat ...and through a synoptic ridge bulge that makes that next to impossible as rain type/origin...

Nah it’s more likely that if they were at the other side of that sort of metaphoric techno gap ... they’d just pulse some form of sci fi energy weapon like a Romulan disruptor type thing and vaporize billions in blithe ... couple hours.

18z NAM now above the NBM product ...well, haven't seen the 13z cycle ... but has temp nearing 90 on Saturday metrowest of Boston and maybe right downtown too. Actually, has mid 80s to Logon tomorrow - it's been having difficulty admitting to this warm air mass... 84 here was the high today with low-ish DP. ...it's basically utopic deck weather.

OH sure hold on... here we go; "NIMAN RANCH" ... "FEARLESS UNCURED BEEF FRANKS" ... Under that is read, " NO Antibiotics or added Hormones - ever. All Vegetarian feeds. Gluten Free" All seriousness ..they're ridiculously good. I've never had a regretful digestion event after eating them either.

I'm surprised any sellers of ex Military aren't getting 'men in blacked' if it's that real ... Now, obviously we all know that when the abbreviation UFO is bandied about ...we/they/the source either IS talking about aliens, or knows full-well that people will interpret matters that way. Maybe that is why the Millitary refers to them as Unidentifiable Aerial Projectiles - to differentiate their assessment from the nomenclature that has taken on that definition - perhaps... But, I have broken down if just for "rural" curiosity, and said, okay fine - I watched a couple of these. Firstly, obvious: all these expose's are saying is they are 'UAPs' ... or in common vernacular, 'Unidentified Flying Objects" - no where does it say aliens. The Navy has to call them 'Aerial Projectiles...' but tomAtoes and tomatoes. Know what? - no one has actually said, " ...clearly, this was an intra-galactic sub-space dimensional shifting alien technology from Gliese 581b, coming here to satisfying a weird innate obsessive curiosity about alien anus" That was the thing back in the day - remember that? - it was all abduction and experimentation ... even made it into pop cultural lit/cinema as a way to side hand ridicule these idiots. Maybe those were really happening... Maybe it is just that phase of the 'probing' operation was at last been 'satisfied' ...so now they have settled back into surveillance ... joke will be on use. But in seriousness, these are older films surfacing... Maybe there is more recent still classified hi-def unmistakable ( as being what, ...who the f knows) images of something arguably not of this world... bobbing in the sky before streaking off at relativistic speeds. As far as that product above - I get the cackle fest and incredulity effort there. I mean, people should be incredulous about all this ... But, that seems at least in part to follow population density there quite a bit - more over, where population density and technology share integration. We are not going to find a hole helluva lot of overlap where bio and electromagnetic mesh, out in the midst of Siberia, the Amazon of Brazil ... or interior Asia ... So...if we remove the hoax factor and crack pottery, reducing some 90% of America and Great Britain's pixelation ... any such product of this nature would still have to light up where the eyes are actually located that are doing the seeing - in the heads of of where the people are actually there to see. Again, not likely to be found out among the sage of the Australian outback.