Typhoon Tip

A bit of bunner comment incoming but heh, my experience with Euro 2-m Ts, they tend to be under done in that range, relative to synoptics being handled. That look probably ends up verifying 1 to 2 ticks more aggravated in the 850, and the potential 2-m won't reflect until we're perhaps < 4 days. If this trend continues to unfold this way and goes on and verifies, I'd almost be surprised if KFIT stuck at 93 ... not with dem parametrics. That has a west wind Boston urban heat bum pointing and squeezing one off right at Logan look man -... 101.1 !

Wow, the Euro. Illustrates a 12z 850 mb temperature layout of +16 to 18C, all over Mi-N In and Oh, Ny, Pa and New England, both next Saturday Sunday. It's synopsis leading is still suggestive of over-the-top, but it's just getting so areal expansive in coverage that it really doesn't matter - it appears NYC-BOS-BTV is just 91 to 96 as the dice range - probably still weight the higher side, N. What's alarming - for lack of better adverb - is that this is getting more ominous as we get closer, and it's still a week away. The SFC pressure pattern layout is like that perfect bread baking 10 to 15 mph breeze that is utterly useless for ventilation, but perfect to make sure the atmosphere is a crucible to 800 mb level. That's the other thing,... those adiabats if that's right will be taller than 850 sigma. It's rare around here to get boundary layers that tall, but that starting to look like it can overcome the sea-level density stuff. The hints of that because there appears to be a lee side thermal trough kinking the isobars from SE NH to southern NJ. When was the last time we had a convincing hundo day ? D9, 21C 850 mb over BTV !

Fwiw, WPC's general D7-14 risk assessment is flagging moderate N, slight S, for excessive heat criteria. This matches our own consensus/obs that it may bleed 'over-top,' I would offer though some of the hottest weather from the N. Mid Atlantic to PWM, ME actually arrives on WNW to NW trajectories. Usually at the sacrifice of a stalled BD cold front blocking D.E.M from the party like Steve Roubel outside "Studio 54" circa 1979. just sayin' . If we don't, looks to me like roughly D5 to 12 might range 87 NYC ( with donkey nuts DPs ) to 96 BTV, where the DP is lower do to source/wind direction in the mid BL respectively. I also want to add that this is 'continental tucking' again - just a personal hypothesis of mine that an over active late spring polar jet tends to draw the continental/SW ejected air conveyor N-W of climo, and then there tends to be more S/SE DP into the Mid Atlantic to NYC. Boston is a wild card there - sort of hinted below with the southern edge of this speculation chart down to rt 2. I could see Boston with a 93/63 ( f'n hot enough!), while BTV puts up a 98/56; and neither of those extremes shows up until we are day 3-5 outlooks btw.

Buddy of mine has a 2nd home/cottage he's spend the last decade vitalizing, next to a lake outside of Fryeburg - across the way from the Steve King place I guess. He was saying that it's like the warm season is so short up there, the air mass becomes dense with a competition on any summer evening, between DP moisture vs mosquitoes. That blue tinted haze against the back drop is actually a fog of vampires. He joked they're like hummingbirds in size, too. So aggressive in fact that even while inside, they bob and probe relentlessing to a competing mat against the window screens. Basically, you can't be out side - there is no warm season in those interior woodland lake regions - there's just winter, then blood suck.

Signal's still early. Needs to "cook" ( nyuk) for a while. Still the higher confidence mode is a period ...perhaps extending a week or even ten days, from ~ June 5 to the 12th/15th, of warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures, with indeterminate dew point intervals. Of less confidence is the extremeness, as is usually the case at this range. The last four consecutive 12-hourly cycles of the EPS, GEFs and GEPs ensemble means, have increased the amplitude centered on 168 thru 192 hours out, ...leading up to and including the 00z run. That's a long sentence for "the ridge amplitude is still trending bigger" - just trying to elucidate why/how that is being assessed. The operational runs are over programmed to sniff out stupid festering nuances, and even the Euro ..with it's so-called smoothing and normalization bs ...seems to come up with hole-punches in the ridge that don't look realistic. Like SE U.S. Coastal sea-breeze convection festering over some random night ...turning into S/W by convective feedback processes... cutting it off, knocking the feet out of the ridge - ...I'm not sure the models are really good enough to catch butterflies in the actual act of farting like that...but we'll see. The GFS just in general can't seem to scaffold the warm side of the westerlies over the continental U.S. ...ever. It doesn't have a problem doing this over the Pacific Ocean... interesting. It's got a +4 SD ridge out there NE of HA ..which should impose a historically deep mode of the PNA as a down stream mass--conserved wave- coupling into trough west, big-ish height dome over WV ... --> normal R-wave shit. It does but shirks it. It meanders the 588 instead of "filling it in" ...with all these weird kind of 500 mb dents pitting the ridge like those dark blotches on PCS scan of ex-NFL'er ... Fitting I suppose, because clearly the model forgets that there is actually a warm side of the westerlies much of the time. The ensemble means of all three ... agreeing in such a manner as they do is still pretty telling that this 'could' nest more 'big heat' in there - may just need to get on the other side of the mid week shit for it to emerge if ever.

Closing remarks on this Mem Day weekend massacre - From about last Tuesday on in I was following the lead-up days/model cycles to this 3-day stint of anti-Stein keenly for two reason: one, because I wanted it to rain enough to advance the Atlantic Ocean to the foot of the Berkshires permanently if it means never using/having to see the <-- preceding term 'stein' in context ...ever again ... Oh, and, all the people that do, are under that oceanic water column. So I was split in personal agenda... because two, I thought the wetter models had a chance of being over-assessed, and I was interested in seeing if that would transpire as we pressed on through the weekend. That of course did not happen! The reasons I cited were clad, too. Despite that, sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you ... One thing I did notice though, the NAM nailed this thing and did so... before the other guidance. Although, in fairness and reciprocity I doff a little hat to the GFS ...which I come done on hard as the NCEP's deterministic instrument - I think it deserves the rec. The Euro was not horrible..but it wasn't as good as the NAM frankly, until it about 36 hours out, and then starts getting more impacting with that 2nd wave. Just what I observed. I'm also in bad mood this morning so hopefully this offends some one, some how -

Should also add... tropics - This pattern suggestion is often conducive to "home grown" variety/SW Atl Basin TS activity. It's also hitting at the right climatological time, where as June typically does see the most activity between the western Caribbean/Gulf OM and Bahamas. This waves the goof range of the operational GFS are probably just based upon that back-ground 'numerical instability' ( proneness) to development, but does help underscore the potential. Presently and preceding week does show the 200 mb v/p as reversing signs in the Atlantic - suggestive moving forward, too.

June welcomes you with a possible "Heat Storm" Short version: This might ( "might" LOL ) be interesting for those with hobby/interest/nerdly ocd in the summertime Meteorological spectrum. I do realize, that is a minority group ... sure. But seriously, the type and scale of heat looming here would be of the ilk that affects all - these extended leads come with the usual caveats It is early, but often the more important ( "larger" ) events will emerge out of the ether of guidance noise, at the farther temporal horizons - we look for consistency ( run to to run, day to day in the early handling) as well as whether disparate guidance sources also agree ( "cross-guidance" ). Longer version: We have both Firstly, we may think of this only when dealing with mid latitude winter storms and cyclones. However, the concepts are the same. Even for phenomenon such as heat and cold waves, etc. We go from this weekend's local -scaled climate nadir, into an ~ 5-day smeared recovery, transitioning gradually into an ominous stretch of heat - targeting as best as can be at this range .. probably next Saturday through much of that 2nd week of June. Seeking all three 00z cycle ens means: Euro, GEFs, and GEPs ... they all maintain heights nearing 590 dm while in concept, very slowly retrograde a planetary -scaled ridge signal. The flat structure of lower latitude /SE ridge genesis begins this week.. but then we see latter surge that really sends the upheaval heading into the deeper range. This latter formulation is over the WAR region of the west Atlantic, growing y, x, z-coordinates. It repositions over 4 to 5 days to the MV ... a time in which there is a well establish lower transport of continental thick warmth. The Euro even has quasi meshed EML ejection and hints at 850 kinetically charged Sonoran released air source getting mixed in... If that happens, this gets into whole 'nother realm of big heat. But for now... +16 to 18C 850 mb air layering at this range, by all three ens means for 5 to 7 days, is impressive enough. Doing so at this range is rare alone for any one of these guidance sources, but to have all them doing the same is another aspect and meaningfulness to deterministic weather forecasting entirely... Conclusion: For now... we are higher, much higher than normal confidence for any D6-15 range in fact, that an extended period of positive departures will engulf much of the U.S. ..Lakes-OV-NE-MA back to the MV. But, my personal 'add on' to that is the "gestalt" of weightiness in the signal seems to be of that ilk that is ... something frankly that is early detection historic. 1993 ... Sandy... 1992... 1978 (relative to modeling era). This does have that 'ooh' vibe to it. Trend, operational model tenors, ens means ... hell, even the climate nadir we are suffering now...needing to be corrected - a CC era that needs that to be the case no less... ha ... it's like every angle on this uncut diamond looks like with a little polishing it could be historic find. So we'll see -I think heat (and cold for that matter..) waves are just as important - or should be - to early risk assessment.

I can assure you ... the signal that formulates ( ultimately ...) those bar graphics for NYC ...are an eastern N/A and hemispheric scoped and scaled long wave event so ... they're likely hot whatever they are. Ha ha

OH yeah... we keep that in mind By the way ..I was going to start a June thread with some of these thoughts and obs ? I think it - much to the chagrin of some ... lol - this may be the next headline-able aspect, "heat wave," ...pending any leading convection. The Euro, GEFs and GGEM are in remarkable agreement which is rare - I'm thinking Thursday has some shot at thunderstorms...But it's a bad lapse rate deal with synoptic forcing again ...so heh. We can't seem to get a -8C delta anymore...

I dunno y'all ...regardless of the source of that bar graph up there ... heh, this is a pretty damn ominous looking signal that's materializing ~ spanning that 2nd week of June. It's even materializing in a planetary weighted construct, ...as 'one of those' type of events. Notice the non-spiked nature of the long trajectory, arcing increase taking days... followed by non frontal slow decay ?? - that's that not the same dragon beast as the typical run-of-the-mill heat wave synoptic, that's how those planetary events tend to go .. - talkin' real 'bundamentalism' stuff for those into summer shit. Lol

https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3600 Echoes much about everything I’ve been talking about ...even directly mentions the Hadley Cell expansion in there ...the speeding up of the hemisphere - it’s all proven right here btw anyway +AAM .. - was a typo. what I was getting at is that zonal fast flows tend to proceed the genesis of subtropical ridging. Contrast north-south meridional flow the a.m. is neg and that proceeds of +PNA/PNAP

Yeah I think it’s got hemispheric footing. That’s no testament to amplitude ... but the tellies and post ENSO may favor +AAM leading str ridging. GOM development too

Next weekend looks pretty dam warm tho

Hey Wiz ... I think Thursday might be the next convection headline - The GFS and Euro ( in a remarkable twist ..>) agree on a D5 chart, features a vestigial S/W passing through that day, with a wind max similarly moving astride N of the region, with a small 565 thickness bulge propagating/warm frontal wedge possibly poking in. That day has that look to me of that classic presage 12z elevated convective grumbling that moves off with haze skies to 80/65, with interesting shearing mechanics in place ... Again, what's up with weak lapse rates this year? But having the right entrance/exit jet relay passed with a c-front out there PA/NY is prooooobably not a bad general layout... Both guidance say we roll from that into the first more convincing heat wave... I mean BTV-BOS-LGA-ALB and points in-between < 900 els 91-94 Sat-Mon?

I thought so too up until 3 days ago but yeah, that ship sailed soon after. I think this is comically devastating to Mem day weekend aspirations ... it starts raining at 4-6 pm Friday... clears abruptly and turns rather pleasant on Tuesday morning around 12 z Perfectly cookie cutter destruction and insult - haha

D5 thru 10 of the Euro is above to substantially above normal T with gaining DP through the period. Hang on summer enthusiasts - this is but a 1 step back along a 2 step forward sort of progression it would seem ... I've also noticed some 'sloshing' in the 12z versus 00z runs...the 12z's seem more dome manifold but the 00z's try to impose little ...almost like convective induce vort shrapnel, and turns them into actual ablative S/Ws... Not sure which is right. Truth be told, it was unusually to have strung 80s with lollies to 91 or 94 like that. So..., I almost wonder if the 10 mean will be almost average actually. - I wonder. But, there is a GEFs agreement with a plummeting PNA.. .which is also neutralized NAO. The latter may actually be the more important at this time of year ( longer term correlative scope..) but...you have to go by the in situ reality ...and the hemisphere is still fast with identifiable R-wave nodes so it's likely the weight of the falling PNA is more telling. The Euro ends up finally relaxing the flow more - ironically ...But it sort of leaves the set up in a big ridge /+AAM look with nothing after to settle it back ...that's mutable but we'll see. Beneficial rain continue tomorrow at the possible sacrifice of a Little League ballparks strash can partially submerged next to that eager low-land stream they put those facilities next too. I swear, they do that so that emptied ketchup packs float out to 2nd base. But we should then be over seasonal norms in rain with 0 justification ... offense punishable by permanent banning if anyone says the f'um name Stein again for any reason ... but we dream -

yup... it's never gon' snow again - cuz of global warming

It's typically rural mentality here in Ayer, Mass this morning. The only grocery store in town has people with masks either not on at all, on completely like they still seek the womb... or pulled down to the chin as some sort of vague virtue vestige. The clerk tells me they are going with the state protocol but are "...Leaving it up to the customers if the wanna wear them" I'm thinking, "that is the dumbest 'policy' I've ever hear" - like what's the f'n alternative ? Make people take off their masks?? This is the rural world of western civility - Bottom line is, you don't have to wear the damn thing - just say that ... plebeian ftl. It's also consistent with rural mentality to keep going masks with that half and half ... They'll do so until they either start to feel silly as it sinks in 'gee - I don't have to wear this.' Some may never get that message though - I mean, mask wearing due to industrial air contamination in parts of China is part of normal scenery down streets and thoroughfares in their urban settings in the best of times. And with pathogenic fears now that cannot be resolved with logic and facts ( eh hm) as carried on by the razor sharp brain bastion of the 75th percentile... you can assume a goodly number of Americans will also just be permanent mask devoted... At least - I wonder so ...

Looking at the 00z NAM ...not sure flood headlines won’t be needed

well... technically, Kevin, you may get your share of that chart's total, tonight - We all agree it's raining a goodly amount, pan-dimensional Also - you may get your brown out .. .ER crowded, soccer practice heat stroke pattern in the first week of June - in fact, this could be an ominous signal for heat through the 15th ...

Well hold it... As a contributor to the last page ..page and half of sentiment, just wanna be clear - I'm not saying there is some cabal pulling strings and we're all their automatons - that's lunacy. There is a "soft-conspiracy" though.. Hard is when A, Y, Beta, Gamma, Zinc cabal work clandestine in cahoots. Soft is when human beings are just c*s and they all do the same things of ethically flexible, if not outright immoralility for the same shitty selfish motivations, in the same way. It's funny, that gives the faux impression of connectivity but it's just that we don't deviate amongst our selves, or in organization... nearly as uniquely as our conceits tend to believe we do. LOL The aspects of SAR-Cov-2 being man-made is not new. The purpose for it - mmm... worthy of investigation. The truth is, it may have merely been lacks and/or just outright failure in routine safety protocols that started it all. In fact, it probably was - the U.S. research ambit does the exact same thing they probably were doing, prior to this bug getting out into the population. Our scientists determine the method for virus infection ..and then 'goose' their capacity to do so, because it speeds up the research arc if the bug in question is more proficient. Doing so, ... this could have happened in either society. Maybe they were over-worked techs. Maybe they don't have as rigorous safety this that and other... That's more like the simpler explanation. ...I snarked that it was weapons research - the problem is they have a non-disclosure history with foreign sovereignty, about the way they've always interacted with the world outside their borders ... Not helping that they have been cagey about this thing all along - did we forget their inconsistencies from a year ago already? That's their choice. But xenophobia doesn't really lend to trust - and that's a pickle... And when I was saying this likely went to the top - I only meant that I suspect Pentagon top intelligence knows exactly where this came from, already; and similar to the 1960s probe into JFK's assassination, ...the investigation stopped at the door of the KGB's possible link for a reason - trust me...it's in the world's better interest if we just say it was a Wuhan lab screw up and be done with it.

? ease off the reactionary hostiliy dial - we just talkin here heh And INVESTOR CALL does not mean anything to me - if that is some b-acumen vernacular ..okay - whatever. But that doens't mean anything -

yeah...sort of thinking that too .. but... these models don't put out 'impossible' solutions, either. I mean if they did, they wouldn't be modeling weather ..they just be a waste of electronics. heh

And that's what makes the menially socially aware infuriated - knowing that if 20 % of the dip shit population is conned by fear mongering, that's what ... 60 million arms to jab and make future profits. They need to shut f up - until really needed. And the speculation originated out of their corporate spread sheets does not count as need. LOL ...yeah... I'm probably not the right person to have this discussion so I'm gonna bail. The aspect of (money+human interest)/2 = part of the Fermi Paradox explanation... but that's a whole 'nother rabbit hole.