Typhoon Tip

Flooding is my irresponsible douche lust for excitement aspect of Met. I don't care to be in heat or ice or snow or whatever so much. And I don't want the flood IN my basement, no... but it really is cool to look at. For some reason, the specter of play-ground slides barely sticking out of the water, with bottom limbs of bear-by sugar maples a mere 6 inches above the water level - haha.. We don't really get that around here unless it's like next to a river doing a Housatonic falls act... Which can be cool too - Some of the mill towns along the Merrimack up in Lowell and Lawerence get pretty interesting ... 2005?

I don't think it is... I think it invariably will end up SW of guidance, and take longer to return/retreat as NWS calls it. This isn't Iowa. We don't flop the back ends of BD loading back out like that. But like I also just said to Kevin, the secret is not getting the front to come that far SW but ... the front exceeding model guidance should be built in as an assumption in my experience. I don't if makes a lot of difference. You're not getting SB CAPE SE of the front either. It's a saturable marsh on either side. It's a matter of whether DPs and low LCL type shit maybe but... this is just a piece of shit ordeal I'd rather it not f-up Friday but oh well... Heat may return next week - different topic.

Yeah I get it... I know they are saying that bold ( abv ) "99% of these over rollout more than guidance, and take 12 hours longer than said to recover - this lesson is relearned 99% of the times, and is interesting forgotten...with the same percentage of wisdom loss." It almost strikes me as though the author of NWS' statement is less privy or experienced with the crushing defeat these boundaries overwhelmingly hand human assessment on 'boundaries surging' back through cold dense air. They always win in this debate. The geography of a boundary wall, like the Berks, has a counter pulling force from the NE that pulls the air mass SW because of this. Once that is jammed in...it ain't leaving like NWS seems to ease in thier verbal illustration further above. See those arrows in this annotation are there always? It's an implied restoring for - a non-linear mechanical forcing that when the flow nears constructively, it gets a momentum "goose" that the models seem a little lax on anticipating that forcing - so they rush these return flows back .... The best option is to not have the cool front get that far S-SW in the first place - but that is different. What they are suggesting is the front gets that far SW, then retreats?? Good luck. Same deal different devil

It's just that 99% of these over rollout more than guidance, and take 12 hours longer than said to recover - this lesson is relearned 99% of the times, and is interesting forgotten...with the same percentage of wisdom loss. I realize they are no fun. Because they make us "feel" like we have been excluded from the party by an ugly cop - but... we want our winters. If we didn't get the former, we probably wouldn't cash in on barrier jets/damming and icing interesting ordeals, snow holding on longer this and that. Anyway, I'm talking NE of BAF/CEF ... but because of above, I wouldn't rule out more of CT getting stuck behind the cool side of the cop

To me, tomorrow has a 2000 foot deep cool marine NE flow undercutting BD look to it.

Hypothesizing ? Perhaps a pulsed restoration of the synoptic barometric pressure. The convection from BAF to N NJ last suppressed the environmental/synoptic WSW wind considerable. In fact, when that was percolating SW of here ( N-central Mass) our winds went dead from 4pm to about 7 .. Then, we had some modest gusting kick up for an hour before night fall, but sooner rather than later decoupled and that returned us to a calmer state again. I suspect as the last of the activity decayed SE and diminished/exited seawards, the flow 'hooked' back around and came through as a bit of 'isallobaric' pulse.

The problem is that being where we are in relation to the perennial hemispheric base-line circulation, we tend to more aggressive returns into the deeper trough passages, with the westerlies smashed farther W-S. Out in the Plains ...granted more so S than N, both have a tendency to shallower trough passages with the westerlies and attending warm frontal/bookend cool boundaries able to roll back sometimes within the same diurnal cycle. This year's strange. We have height variances locally ( ORD-BOS-NS ) oscillating more so between a shallower variance.. particularly in the non-hydrostatic heights, this can be seen. 576 to 588 ...save for last weeks weird two day trough plunge - but I suspect/maintain that was actually a fluke down stream of a Pac NWS 1:200 years oddity - which given CC may mean we've gone over a threshold where that has a much quicker return rate than 1:200 ..but that's a digression for a different time. Anyway, the shallower transition between warm and cool episodes ...stretched more longitudinal, is lengthening the stay in these sequences/lead-side convection scenarios. Interesting.

It's rare to get back-to-back severe risk scenarios in our region. It is what it is - if the set up is there, which this is, ... I think it is interesting that being rare as it is, this is the second time this season that this has successfully become so. Two days of it -

The Euro's evolution between NE Georgia and NJ doesn't make a lot of theoretical sense. It not only maintains a tropical nucleus it even intensifies it through the upper 980 mbs - how? why? It may be that it is tapping into the synoptic mechanics and sort of hybridizing the cyclone with both, somehow utilizing both kinematic forcing - It'll be interesting to see if a 987 mb low situates thru the NY BIte at 60 hours. It's weird optics because the previous charts has it weaker, then ...suddenly it is stronger as it nears "cold water" - hello? There really isn't much in the way if at all, supportive OHC in that region. If this circulation was spreading out and structurally showing signs of transitioning - I dunno. Between this model's in-general performance blindness wrt TC initiation, then later on it sells us these idiosyncrasies, I think that organization has work to do. The GFS, despite its own distractions, would fit better with theory and practice. This thing should be absorbing into the baroclinic tapestry as a smear up along the M/A given that trajectory and longevity over land - not being superbly structured coming in isn't helping either.

So I guess this is a hurricane … again

There’s ways around that

One of the best movies, ever

wow, no kidding... cleared here substantially over the last hour and we bounced from 76 to 85 at these home stations and it feels every bit real out there, too- 90 is doable ..but 89/72 is gets the point across either way.

That'd be funny, too - like the same thing that usual screws us finds a weird idiosyncratic means to do the opposite. Talks about turning chicken shit into chicken salad. But this situ has changed since we typed earlier - par for the convective course, as it's also a game of observation and now-headaching the ordeal. The skies really opened up to just fractal cu and heat. It's jumped from 76 to 86 here in the last 1.5 hours of this clearing arrival - I mentioned that in the July thread that this type of air mass was sort of spring loaded like that, and that 10 minutes of sun can bounce degrees. Anyway, 90 is plausible despite losing dawn to 10 am in murk skies. That changes the map a little as far in inhibition. TCU and glaciation is now evidence more in western NY but racing east along that axis we mentioned and even N of there a little. I bet a we get a MD/ watch here

I sense an gray area fomenting slowly in interpretation wrt to human rights/constitution, when it comes to private vs public access and this mask imposition. There are many private establishments that are requiring masks around this borderline rural township area of Littleton to Ayer Mass, while the public thoroughfares of centroid demographics and/or larger market venues in general, are not. I walked headlong in blithe into a Hunter Appliance store as recent as last week and was knee-jerk excoriated, "Sir sir ... SIR!" Oh my god oh my god oh my god... by two masked-impugn-ammo wielding gun load germaphobes ... toeing the line for their "..Boss's insistence..." as the guy espoused. Jesus, calm the f* down. I mean I was the only potential client in the place, and judging by the pall of soothing factory smells hanging in the stuffy air, probably the first one in days I'm guessing and I got that reaction? They sat with headsets, imprisoned inside a plexiglass enclosure that was riveted - actual rivets at the seams - together to form a cubical. This sucker looked hermetically sealed at a glance, an island out amidst what I must assume was a show room modeling contaminated household appliances. I mean, non-confrontation but the whole thing to me is both stupid and questions the 'rights' of individuals vs mask imposition. It does, because part of rights are established by what is right and wrong - and that setting.... IS F*C*I*G WRONG, but an asshole's paranoid stupidity and lording power over his business owership - I guess the best deterrent will be that people stop shopping at his establishment - guaranteed this jaggov will suddenly see through a nimrod's morass of fear, relaxing posture when money becomes automagically more urgent than a disease - lol. It's all hypocrisy and bullshit. Fine, it's not that big of a deal to me to be inconvenienced for 10 minutes while I pick out a refrigerator. Your establishment - you set the rules. But, that doesn't allow you to prevent other ethnicities and races, does it. Mm. interesting - what's the difference. You don't know if that person has a disease, you only have fear and stereotypes. Well, that's racism incarnate- just because we point it at a new color, the mechanics are the same. You're making an assumption to justify a exclusionary practices. Eventually, liberals will start screaming about this - prediction.

Mm... I actually don't think that is the problem with today. Judging by sat trends, we should get a some good insolation periods mid afternoon. I think premature detonation out in NYS may be a the issue for us. Like I was saying, there appears to be a bit of "zygote" convection axis already percolating out there astride I-90; that morning trend may set the table and it's already S of the northern edge of SPCs hashing. Then, looking at the 500 mb height lines and geostrophic wind direction, those cells should move S of due E - this latter aspect tends to not end big, with less N-E end of the Pike. They'll turn right - more right of the guidance too ... sending anvil spooge over us... I'm sure this doesn't happen every time. But, after 30 years of suffering the vicissitudes of convection outlooks in SNE, the first order of business here is 'what can go wrong' will - particularly if you neglected to look for it haha

For those that want the warm afternoon it'll likely get here. There's ample clearing punching E immediately aft this last lone decaying MCS remnant as it swaths down Rt 2, presently. Skies on hi res vis loop look to have cleared out over western MA/S VT and this is punching E at with rapidity - probably 20 minutes from Middlesex Co ranging to an hr .. hr/2 farther E. I can see the blue on the west NW horizon now. Temps will responds quickly in this air mass. It is not yesterday ... we are 18C at 850 mb and when the sun kisses the earth - should that in fact happen - we're apt to witness some 5 to 6 deg temp/hr explosive spanning 2 hours, then we'll play the afternoon by ear with convection. That early nocturnal activity and subsequent clouds were not well handled, no - NAM ( not sure about other meso guidance but curious... didn't check them ) missed the nocturnal complex that set up a morning of debris and remnant light right packets. In fact, it had <50% cloud level RH in recent grids - wrong. Truth be told, when pulses of light through the window and their ensuing resonances pulled me out of slumber, the thought passed through my mind, there goes the higher side of the heat. May still make 86/72 though

My experience in this part of the country is that the morning trends often dictate how the day's convection will tend to play-out. "Recovery" inside a diurnal time span is only so-so around here; not like over the Plains, with morning MCS and afternoon super cells - there are too many complex 'fuzzy' limiting factors to list here; it just is what it is. In this case, there is a line of morning TCU extending astride I-90 in NY S. It appears that is along that 700 mb jetlet SPC was outlining in their morning update ( would seem to fit an explanation for that ..). That feature probably goes on to demarcate the glaciation fan out axis. This may choke off activity N of there once that happens. The cells will tend to then slip S of a W-E motion, and that may do it for E - N of CEF-ORH (~) as a light rain anvil positive return on a hashed severe threat typology. Lol, I actually have sympathy for SPC. I mean people have died from stove pipe, urban canal boring twisters before. And while tremendous strides in science and tech have provided quantifiable positive returns in advanced risk planning, to in the moment detection, out in the Plains, our region continues to elude those techniques. Yet, they happen here. Even though rarely, one does manage to cut through the morass of reasons to fail to actually occur - so they have to hash. But for us, it is an exercise in destructive interferences - those that seem to tag-team. That time 'too many clouds,' this time, 'cells dove right of modeling and ended it early,' some other time, a SSW by SSW by SW wind was quantum therms too cool for just a SSW by SW .. It's amazing that 1953, Great Barrington's, and Monson's ever happen at all.

Euro tried to do that earlier this last June with Claudet...also traversing some 800 mi of land post a landfall while selling it as a strong TC almost upon emerging on the Del Marv and keeping it that way over the cold side of any warm water astride NJ... nope. It did deepen some when it came off the VA Capes but it's trajectory was flatter and attained better proximity to the Gulf Stream then that thing there. That's over 59 F water off the Cape and is strengthening in the intervals lead that depiction - nah...

Just based purely on 30 years of this pointless distraction ... that experience for some reason doesn't like the look of hashes that squeeze the N edge from slgt to nothing over a bike ride's distance along a straight west to east axis -

Dog day pattern if you remove the GFS speed bias ... basically slow moving low amplitude waves that have weak CAA and modest WAA defining their transport media - should be modestly above normal after the Tue/Wed 'faux' heat wave. although i suspect this will be like the 19th thru 23rd of June, where it's 88.9 at all ASOS but 91.2 over everyone's driveway, parking lots and thoroughfares them two days .. 'maybe' Thur makes the cut. These huge ridge heat dome phenomenon have not had that much longevity.. It is interesting that they are not defining in the seasonal scope - more like the oscillatory nature between those and offsetting cooler periods is the distinction. Not sure what that means, other than weird - California's interior Central Valley looks doomed again D5-8 ...then the flow out there and here looks flat under hemispheric +decimals SD canvased positive geopotential medium. like this oscillatory behavior wants to diminish toward more typical summer entropy

18z NAM puts up a 95 supporting atmosphere at 18z Tuesday for interior/metrowest

I know I never seen nothin like that with no outs

Epic play at the plate to maybe save this game wow - Onto the 11th ... Oakland leaves ‘em loaded too.

They were both an example of synergistic feedbacks.