Typhoon Tip

Yeah... I think I'm good and ready for this Nor'easter to trundle its way out into its death smear across the norther Atlantic and good riddance. After awhile with these things ... I tend to get storm fatigue. Almost "modeling and following the f'er ad nauseam" fatigue, is more like it. I just get to a point, sometimes even before they happen where it is 'enough is enough' already. How many different model renditions of the same event does one need to field. Particularly when we all know it will strike one or two communities while sparing the rest of us a pedestrian ordeal. It's like a state Lotto ... If you are that lucky town, you won that storms drawing. And its like somehow by escape into the model triggered re-imagined reality, we up our chances of picking the right numbers on our tickets. So, most don't win.... But, because we risk "hurting the storms" feelings, during cancel-culture, or risk getting black-listed in the weather-social-media's equivalence to the House on being Un-American Activities Committee or something... the storm gets to be an all-timer. Gosh forbid one ever is - ..who's gonna know it?

Really ... nah - I see a teleconnector signaled, trend-footed confidence scenario for a "seasonal cold" wave - meaning ...nothing extraordinary, no. But pervasive sub 540 hydrostatic thickness, under a generally moderate +PNAP flow structure that pervades the continent, from ~ Nov 2nd through the 9th. Of course, that's going by the tenor of the operational GFS, combine with the telecon from the GEFs system - still... I don't find these sources, in that time range, to necessarily be auto- less reliable than the EPS cluster. I guess we'll see. But ...you know? part of the problem is that we are 'extraordinary event' saturated to the point where we don't see the middling 'normal' departures as readily. It's sort of conditioning us to collectively even inadvertently miss if not ignore them, altogether. Case in point: Imagine a scenario where there are three distinct winter events in a 10-day period. One is 3-5" with a big scale -up potential, one is 3-5 but is sketchy, but the D7 one is a historic blizzard. The first one verifies 4.5" ... while the D7/8 comes in modeled even more terrifying catastrophic.. The, the next sketchy one does surprisingly well, but by shadow of the looming ( now ) D6 cryo-bomb, does anyone even know it is snowing? Then, the big dawg busts. What do you think the opinion of those 10 days will be, when in fact ... 9 or 10" is a 7 to 10 day +snow anomaly? This is the life as weather chart over-stimulated storm junkies - not a very good or realistic perspective. I mean I'm not saying this is you .. I'm speaking the straw American weather site - ..Something like that and over-numbing may not be seeing this cool down in early November ( and this is in spirit been consistent for several consecutive cycles of the GFS) - and again.. fits the erstwhile PNA/NAO ... even hints in some Euro runs for -EPO 'blip' but cross that bridge:

While right to say it he is unfortunately futile for the effort, for there is no audience in social mediasphere available to really hear that message. It would be like trying to penetrate some street corner heroin addict's mind with wellness rhetoric. The charts and graphics? They are either the needle, or the junk in the needle. The feed-back on line from others also seeking' the push', bouncing back and forth between ... ever amplifying the fever-pitch? That is the act of plunging the syringe. It is all part of the same force that was outlined in "60 Minutes" expose' ... or NETFLIX' "The Social Dilemma" - this in here? It's just our brand. ...So, it's a societal problem ..which this can go off at tangent indefinitely at this point heh. I mean, the Internet, and the vastness of how it touches all using tech related direct, or indirectly to it, now pushes the motifs to modalities infinitum .. to the point where quantifiable it is most probably the most extraordinary thing Humanity has ever contrived - and we don't even know it for being in the weeds (feels too good to question anyway - right?) We are living the greatest dystopian ( or utopian - verdict is still out...) novel that never was actually written. I don't mean to excoriate any one "user" in our midst - lol. Lord knows, I sense/feel a charge out of a deep digging winter trough, just as well... But there is a difference between feeling that sense of awe and wanting to experience x-y-z, vs a tendency to shuck rationalism, and/or any dissenting opinions that even 'sound objective,' in lieu of re-enforcing bias ahead of time. Sorry, that is creating a delusion - almost by proper definition. Create a bubble of constant fascination to fixate within a framework of less-likely plausibility, just like these expose' evince, is an escape ... into a psychotropic high. And yet another tangential: there is no consequence in lingering there in a modern industrial-mollycoddled assumption of security. This is a problem... I love discussing this stuff and I realize this is probably not appropriate here, but the over-arching "buy-in" to the media is apropos. I digress.. Still, much of the leading proportionality was well met for SE zones - that's the enabling lie. "It wasn't that I believe the fever-pitch; it just didn't penetrate as far" I mean it's easy to sense ( thus) why folks get palpably pissed-off ( ...though think they are hiding it heh -) when 4 days before a modeled winter storm, the models so much as hint the bubble might deflate. In some sense of it, the actual storm its self is less important than the bubble of excitement created ahead of time - you pop that bubble, oh boy ... It sets off Facebook fights and Twitter rages, or trolling ... far worse than any storm fashioned by careful selection of graphics and dystopia feed-back loops

Yeah the Ida comparisons were annoying eye-roller material ahead of this thing

I wonder what he thinks now ... heh

I'd watch in suspect for those anomalies to normalize toward a more seasonal cold departure .. gradually, as the days and model cycles click by over the next week.

Ah ha. I bet you a dozen donuts no kid likes rectal plaque weather, either

It’ll keep belaying until it never actually happens LOL

Heh … fleeting presence is apropos but yeah

My god that was almost 30 years ago.

Dec 1992 came close … Brockton MA had nearly 5” of cat paw rain then flipped to 6 hrs of blue air chutes and snowed (I think) 9” 3.5” of cat paw rain fell sideways under undulating ceilings ( …low melt level ) at UML. And then came the 17” the top 9 of which was powder. ORH hills did 36 give or take but even there lost the fist in. of QP to white rain.

I “think” he’s sniffing a bust to some degree ?

Rad and sat look like this cyclone has maxed Im sure you’ll get your wind but it looks like barely missing the best

Unfortunately, I have never heard of any kind of retarding or action belated based upon lack of antecedence - My immediate impression is that is meaningless - storms happen by restoring forces, no other constraining factors - if the breach between the two sides is opened, A --> B until A = B. Period. When synoptic imbalances set up, the action of restoring ( " --> " ) is the 'storm event' - but A and B are wholly physically identifiable para and discrete metrics. Like hot over there...cold over here... through moisture in between - boom. There's no "rehearsal" or practice about it. I understand your fuzzy with memory.. I'd have to read whatever it is you're referring to render a very good opinion -but just based upon what you've said ..heh.

You can really see how this is likely to evolve just by observing the general synoptic layout and then balancing in the looping satellite. That best present perceived centric low pressure has coalesced SE of the Cape ... It appears on sat to be moving NNE, but ..there is a limit to how much longer that motion can persist. There is blocking NNE ..this thing has maybe 50 more naut mi before it's slammin' to a halt. It will at minimum stall when that happens, but may as well assume the advertised west motion toward the coast. The latter italicized is crucial in the amount of wind that pulses west along with it, then lingerings over night - if and when..

I'd suggest 10 .. 20% above the background climate signal - The mass field indicators ( telecon spread ... ) lend to plausibility by pure statistics - which doesn't unfortunately offer any specific insight on how or what happens, but it is' purely based on the numbers. We have a maintenance -NAO bouncing around but holding negative, while the PNA is doings so positive. But for me, the tell might be that the operational runs et al seem to have a more than less coherent +PNAP amplitude interval ..roughly Nov 3 to 11th in there. So, it's like early detection - whether it is that above, or something else as yet to emerge, an 'emergence' some modest favoring over baseline.

I still am enamored some by the gesture of a coastal storm at all, really. - I mean ones of such formulaic structures in autumns - per my own experience - seemed to have "meant" well for events deeper into the year. Still ( and admittedly ..), it is hard to get a bead on whether this is that kind of foretell, or if it is just a part of the seasonal fore -lapse, -NAO's we've been seeing more of in recent autumns.

Heh...the Prudential - Blue HIll - ORH AP axis of 1K evil

Going with the GFS? Yeeeah, winds gusting that high seems a bit excessive at that location, for this storm's azimuth. As it approaches from the ESE toward SE zones ...they are naked to sky with still relatively elevated SSTs offering little or no inversion protection and the lower eddy tumbling probably mixes momentum down more proficiently and all that... But out that way, the storm approaches actually excites more NE pull of stabler central NE air. Probably there is a semblance of coastal boundary along or near west of a Willamantic CT- ~ ASH NH ... and west of there you have more pedestrian gusts ( 45ers .....maybe 52), which can kick the power off - no doubt. But the bigger hassle with wind issues likely is SE of said line. There are other models though - not sure what they are all getting at but the idea of the SE approach appeared overnight to be rather unanimously agreed upon - just a matter of idiosyncratic detailing with pressure depth and wind banding but the consensus was apparent -

Looking at this 12z operational GFS version ... there's likely to be a very significant acceleration of winds pushing W into coastal Mass/Cape and the Island between 00z and 06z, tonight. That's the critical window for the loftiest gust numbers ... but some considerable roaring over roof tops as it tapers only slowly through mid morning ..By mid day, tomorrow ... the wind will likely relax rather abruptly to just breezy with a few minoring gusts, as the low pivots quickly away as is weakening while doing so. My guess for max gust will be 84mph, with mid 70s over the exposed arm of the Cape and the Islands, ..with the highest numbers for Boston being mid 60s. Tapering off by wind climo heading west. I think NW of a PSM-PVD axis ...despite the gradient, much of the wind will be confined to the fast motion of the clouds with just occasional tree leans. That'd be my wind anatomy based upon this GFS run.

That's incarnate the torture endured by the indelibly devoted snow lover ... traveling through the eternal times of autumn. 20 to 40s fun killer temperature days ahead of synoptic events. I bet you, just to smack your faces up there it even smells like snow? I've seen that sort of phenomenon wait until 32.1 before the drizzle commences under the slate skies - ... while that internal monologue echoes, ' ..it was just f'n 24 F three hours ago'

Yeah...I'm actually impressed that despite the 'fuzzy' focusing ... the models appear to have coalesced around a meso-beta-scaled low feature there, approaching the SE zones - booya models! Back in the day, we let the chips fall where they may with these weird busted open multi-focused lows. I remember that big one that ended the 2014 season there was a system that did that - it was very intense, but couldn't get the internals around a coherent singular bomb so it wobbled three 'hook ins' around a common center - I still wonder to this day if missing the blizzard was cause of that internal struggle. As it were ... it sort of wrapped up the last of that years intense continental could and took it up into the Maritime and it seems to mild up and exit into spring within a week. It'll be interesting if this thing has a nucleated wind event that shows up on velocity channels - that might be cool if that is detected.

You can see the multi-vortex busted ravioli look to this thing east and northeast of the Mid Atlantic over the ocean, looking over various satellite channels. I spoke at length about this over the last couple of days .. but it is really exemplified by these morning higher res loops. The models were doing their meso-low foci dance because this system lacks the baroclinic focusing mechanics in the lower troposphere. The entire region is cyclonic, but without that focusing mechanism, the vorticity has a tendency to fragment within that general cyclostrophic domain. Baroclinic focus: a more typical thermal wall ... usually aligned from coastal/lower NJ to SE Mass ... etc - where ever that happens to be axial by in situ circumstance, but that is the general climate signal. The longer way that works ... when you see a lot of 850 ( use that level...) isotherms scrunched together, that suddenly open up on the immediate/astride west/NW side, that is an indication of an intensely defined and very upright tilted front along the axis of those packed isotherms. Typically, due to continent and oceanic geographic circumstance, fresh cold winter air masses bleed into the coastal plain, and meet the perennial west Atlantic ridging and of course ...the warm sultry g-string is there. This boundary subtends lower than the 850 through the boundary layer beneath, at a bit of an angle toward the warmer side... Such that, as jet mechanics at 700- 300 mb pass over from the SW..W, that d(mass) instantiates an inward restoring force and air flow moves toward those elevated jet streams from underneath, which only intensifies as the "tube" of wind max continues to feed over. This lower level incoming/restoring flow encroaches upon the frontal wall as describe, and is thus forced to turn upright along that boundary very proficiently. By nature a warm flow ( relative ), with richer DP air... It is conditionally unstable" ...made to be absolutely unstable as it rises and then enters buoyancy from explosive release of latent heat from cloud condensation ..etc... The combination of the overriding jets with this buoyancy force creates very powerful vertical ascending mass of air; the areas with least resistance underneath the underside of that " giant elevated tornado" ( kidding...) ends up being where the "main low" pressure aligns at the surface. One can visualize pretty readily, using that more idealized paradigm as described, how lacking the baroclinic focus at low levels leaves other patterns of forcing to determine where/what the surface lows will be. This is a tough wind and when therein forecast due to buck-shot meso tendencies ... The general cyclonic domain will have pedestrian breezes, then as others have noted ... a meso passes near-enough by and suddenly it's turbine time at an aeronautical proving ground.

Wait ‘til next May