Typhoon Tip

I’d like the rollout S/W ridge to continue to improve structure … given recent multi cycle trend I’m fine to believe it will but it’s crucial

Fwiw - Chris is right ... quick and dirty annotation here to show that this is just rotated clockwise too much in the N-S total trough axis, with the N stream S/W and southern stream wave clearly identifiable. This is the 12z Euro, at 108 hrs If the blue correction were to happen in future runs, then a cyclonic rotation ( total) and capture would lead more likely to a comprehensive early season winter threat. Considering the 00z was smearing the southern stream almost entirely mooshed S toward Brownsville, and skipping the N stream through like a rock off a pond... this is a step in the right direction for enthusiast.

oh duh heh. Yeah trends at this range -

Did anyone actually see the operational Euro run from 00z last night ?

It's weird in way, because these southern streams waves typically enhance ...not take a way. heh. must be negative interference in this case

OH yeah Will - that sucker is probably heading for an entertaining solution haha

Yup and I'm noticing that the GFS is sort of on-off with amount of constructive interference - 'sensitivity' you mention seems related to how proficient that intermediary phase-space is, which is also in part guided by the wave strength in the atmosphere as those two interact. If the lead piece is boss, we end up 12z ish... Lag is boss, perhaps more 00z like. I mean I'm just comparing the last several cycles.

Supercell isn't really a part of those other 'baity' terms, though. It's a got nomenclature in physical science for being a particular thunderstorm structure that is self-perpetuating ...organizing regions into outflow and unperturbed such that they are uninterrupted in in flowing unstable air into the updraft. Typical thunderstorms are an up-down ordeal that last less than an hour, while +CAPE converts to -CAPE ...and the latter washes out the instability. "super" in the context of thunderstorm cells, prevents that 'washing' from happening. But those other terms are the present era, unscrupulous news media sources word-smithing drama terms to engender ratings, yup -

The surface pressure/QPF evolution is still dandy in my 'preferential' perspective. Heh. I just mean, on November 24, a 120+ hour model look like that ...I'll take it. Entertaining enough. It would have been ( and may yet be gosh forbid ) far worse if the run dump the look altogether. This still fits inside 'noise expectation.' The differences between 00z and 12z are easily correcting toward either solution. I just wonder if/when consensus hints at emerging -

Yeah... Thing is, it's a specter ( I've noticed - ) that began to really emerge on that transition from 12z yesterday, comparing to the ensuing 18z run ... There was a bodily shift in the total synoptic manifold of the flow structure that back-ward dug the S/W back SW along the isohypses, just enough to make one wonder if a trend was in play. 00z run comes out and it's nukey - Then the 06z backs away slightly but still delivers...now this? Seems if there is a legit signal in here, ( for one ) the models are sruggling with it - duh. But it may be that it's real but 'newish' in latching on so a few unstable runs? I guess more of a forecast philosophy of approach. but yeah, storm forming would benefit from more 00z'esque

If one wants to spend as much time and energy drafting a response like that which you did or I imagined borrowed, it is probably unwise to begin with that particular sentence right there. Lol - just a suggestion. At least not if one actually expects the target reader to engage.

00Z GFS does something similar the following Sunday, too.

Way behind various product suites this morning ( apparently there was a Euro outage ? I haven't drilled back in the thread but evidence is what it is... ) Interestingly ... Golden Gate hasn't update GFS since 00z 22nd ... it's a personal go-to, but Pivotal sourcing is admittedly superior in a few ways: Noting the abrupt improvement at 500 mb re 120 -140 hours re the GFS operational. GGEM ( fw it is or isn't w ) seems to reasonably mimic this sort of potency, both now ending up plunking down an strong packet of vorticity and governing S/W field right into Pa. The right panel next interval then sends a mid/u/a wind max along the climo pathways ... S of LI. Usually...circulating mid levels impose a frontogenic force beneath... in the 5 deg lat smear extending N, regardless of whatever model in question is QPF'ing the layout. LOL .. this may be a waste of time seeing as this is less full suite comprehensive ...we'll see, but I like what I see so far for the snow enthusiasts. The other aspect is that Pivotals isohypses intervals are 3 dam ... so, I have to pull my enthusiasm in and realize that is a middling amplitude trying to quasi cut off as that bundle of joy carves underneath - but "carves underneath" [enter gloss eyed physics here] has a way of maximizing matters, nonetheless, and produce/ "over perform" sometimes, too.

It’ll bomb with radar scratching beaches

While we're considering GGEM eye-candy.... ho man, it would be fun for pop-corn sake to cinema that run out to D13 because that D10 is setting up a big time mess from the central Plains to SNE if extrapolated. I mean... just funnin' and such

Actually ..the 00z Euro evolution was more impressive through D6 .. beyond ? not so much. Scoots seaward and doesn't amplify further. This run 12z is less so through D6 additional to that imho -

I'd also caution/note, the only thing preventing the 00z operational Euro from doing something similar was it's hurried abandonment/collapse of the NAO wave space argument in the 24 hours preceding. I have looked at the UKMET/GGEM handling of that specific exertion, but ... they may be getting to their solutions erroneously either way - of course. But, when I saw hour 144 off the oper. run I almost gulped form I-95, PHL-PWM ... but then suddenly... the whole axis shifts E - it appeared to me that the sudden collapse out NE of NS/NF in the lower Maritime of Canada may allow the wave -spacing to open up. Doesn't help there's a huge kicker up over MT by D7 but I think that feature suffers from Euro's amplitude wash it applies out in that range as a weird tendency -

I wouldn't be tossing anything in this volatile pattern. And by volatile, ...not so much the embedded features and handling - per se - but the determinism is whack right now, big time. The PNA is transiently bubble sorting its self out around camel hump that ends up going back neg head ( but will probably fail to some degree ) out there around Dec 7. Meanwhile, the NAO mirrors around similar timing. Those mass-field yo-yo impose exertion on the flow for/feed-back from embedded features, but the models exert on themselves with huge error proneness in that emerges from handling - I mean the models are much better than circa ...2002 .. But, almost as a comical plot by a super agency ( muah hahahaha ) the planetary system is in CC turmoil ...featuring among other charms... tendencies for fast flow. Those are notoriously bad regardless of era - including now. This is +PNA is not huge N-S in stature, but does carry potency in S/W intervals to help add to space and momentum complexity. Kind of has some 'unmanned firehose' aspects to it.

Probably because there's a lot of destructive wave spacing/interference ... That dig into the MA also looks like it comes from typical Euro tendency to arbitrarily apply amplitude on D5+'s. It may be entirely true that something comes of that time frame, but there are plenty of reasons to be leery of that thing. Aside, the details of the QPF charts show most of that misses E by a narrow margin ( as is..)

GGEM trending ... fwiw -

Subtleties in the runs offer a lean back to a more chillier regime after perhaps a two or three days of con attempts. Lol - we'll see. Looking at individual GEF members from 00z cycle and matching with the EPS mean for H500 mb anomalies, as well as sfc pressure synoptic evolution... the only aspect limiting significant MA/NE/ NW Atl cyclogen is the lower troposhere is out of phase. Still, next Saturday looks like a nasty wintry day, with gray grits in the air and probably a siggy upslope/terrain enhanced snow squally regime for central/NNE. It's pretty well agreed upon in both the GEFs and EPS means. Hey.. winter appeal is what it is Not sure I buy this recent 12z wild windy deep cold noreaster for Dec 2 just yet. But... you know, ...the suggestion from the telecon spread was always more encouraging than the operational runs of any model - interesting... But there is still a correction tendency going on with the +PNA/-NAO ( and looking at the EPS mass fields argues any tele's from that cluster would likely match the American source - ). People need to see the significant event on the charts to be enthused. This is unfortunately a situation where the canvased potential is waiting -

Heh... we will, just because we don't want that - perhaps... But I have my doubts just based on trends. This was set to be a pretty siggy ( not historic perhaps, but significant nonetheless) negative departure off a -EPO loading...then PNA relay with counterbalanced -NAO for good measure. Nothing. We normal, with oscillatory behavior now through the period ... Recurring correction theme for ...7 years, hey! - that trough that looked so encouraging is now progressive because the NAO is ...doing whatever it is doing but it ain't blocking that's for f sake. It's also being f'ed around with and actually is becoming more E bias than ideal ...probably why the trough moves out. And the cold is attenuated because it didn't get the back loading of the 'phantom' -EPO... Same old same old with models picking up on signals distantly as though they are giant moons rising over the horizon only to come into coherence as some reduced semblance of their original signal. It seems just as likely to me that any adjectives describing warmth will appear equally overstated. We'll see.

While yet there is an even better argument than that - (just ranting here ...not directing this at you ) It's call extinction mmm yeah. While we're busily divvying up the remains ... like we have a choice in the matter. No one believes that, of course. But hell, we are at least heading in the right direction. What used to at minimum be met with majority in-deference, has now made its way all the way to ' stop alarm sounding.' At least in this latter, there has to be some omission somewhere in there that there is at least a real concern. Lol It's like after 30 years of denial, we are now ready to accept, "Yeah, Okay, but it's not as bad as that ...I bet " (Psychologists refer to that as 'bargaining,' an evasive tactic that offers soothe over an otherwise painful truth - it's not real acceptance tho) The truth is ... IT IS THAT BAD. Despite all conceits and/or qualitative achievements as a species, we are really only a tick better than any other form of life form on this planet. Those "lessers" are wholly dependent on tactile registry to sense danger and motivate. We, on the other hand, are supposed to use fore-spectrum-based proactivity. It's really like we run "forecast models" that predict within errs of tolerance ... of course, what the future will be, inside our heads. You know, for all the posits there are that attempts to explain the difference between us and them ... that may be it. As the reality of language becomes better defined, it is clear that birds f'ing talk to one another - yes, that's right. Bird brains! Speaking of which, crows use tools. Or, Capuchin Monkeys use heavy rocks to crack open nuts ... so that blows the tool usage away, too. So what do we have left... the use of fire. Let's examine that for a moment: We are sentient of the future, uniquely. Taming fire really for that ability. Observance lends to working on the dynamics of the propagating system in such of way to force an outcome. That may really be our defining characteristic that separates us from all other living things on this planet: it's the ability of cause-in-effect forecast modeling that all humans are gifted with ... (some more than others, be it in punchlines or practice but there are exceptions to every rule), but only doing so along a spectrum where we are alone at this level. Yet, despite this intrinsic advantage, we are still too far in a way more willing to motivate if and only if the 'perception' of threat is being registered in: Sight, sound, smell, taste or touch. These are what move people off the train tracks - merely telling them the train is coming? They'll look up and down the track to make sure first. Global Warming and climate change's disadvantage always was that it is impossible to perceive changes in ambient temperature, when that range is mere decimals over the scope of a year's records. Therefore, we're looking up and down the proverbial tracks. GW/CC has no advocate that appeals.... Meanwhile, the chemistries of life DO respond to minute changes in nature, that are in those deceptively irrelevant scales. It's just another example of how the extraordinary evolutionary leap that brought humanity the gift of foresight and innovation forecasting, may ironical have been an arbiter of its extinction. Now that is a interesting twist... It's like the moment Arthur C. Clark's ape picked up the burning stick with a pensive connection, that was the moment the end began - and everything since is far more academic than we could ever imagine.

Yeah agreed - this is basically the gist of my inability to keep it brief - haha.. seriously though, word. +PNA/-NAO tandem. I agree with Ray re suppression .. but, I am also seeing a tendency past D6 to 'relax' the isohypses counts from TX to the southern tip of J Bay... that helps to alleviate the negative interference should that paint reality -

It's not going to be easy. This is essentially a species level event crisis, ... really perhaps the first legit test of the KS level 1/ 'planetary manipulation' - unforgiving exam where you failure can mean extinction. Here? - to ween a 7.5 billion-ballasted momentum, off of multi-generational adaptation to a FF matrix as primary energy extraction method? There is no easy pathway to that vision - not lecturing you per se...speaking to the strawfolk reader here... There is going to be duress at multiple scales of civility ... Could even culminate in war(s). There is probably going to be hording. The specter of dystopia may become overwhelming, causing regression tendencies. It's a race... it's quite ironic, that technological advancements got us into this mess; we are now so inextricably dependent that technological advancing has to play a pivotal role in how that race ends. Meanwhile, some ecological failures could mean food problems. Future Pandemics? get used to it. Species migration do to habitat stressing co-mingle biophagic agents where there are no defenses. Yeeah. Say, if the ocean phytoplankton C02-02 cycle crashes... pretty much anything over 50kg that requires warm blood, that doesn't have tech to make O2 the other way... can't breath. Probably we won't run out of air.. but that combined with other factors becomes insurmountable toxic cocktail. We cannot survive if X-number of species eradicate below a codependent threshold... and those that believe we can out live a mass extinction are basically Walking Dead. Any of this endless list is a dystopian Sci Fi novel - the good kind. Good because it's eerily plausible if not likely. We've been covering this in long winded prose, in this particular thread for several months at this point. Probably a bit much to read outside of cover-to-cover couch and tea engagements. Most in here are too Twit and/or quick textual in attention span - understood. The ultra short version, there are two choices for the humanity future: 1 Hardship, .. how much or little depends. It certainly can be ameliorated via cooperation, which begins at acceptance - which we are just barely now getting the mass of those that accept over the fulcrum. 2 Death Pick