Typhoon Tip

The cause is different than spring, though. Not that anyone cares what the whip looks like. Make it stop - right? This is an unusual phenomenon that needs its own space/attention: excessive -AO It's not as traditional looking as that which we may observe amid the winter months, however - it's actually quite bizarre. Large vertical height anomaly nodes in the 60/...70 latitude, that have less horizontal dimensions. If we average out the polar domain of this annotation below, it numerically produces a fantastic -AO total, ...but we don't see the R-wave scaffolding of mid winter -AOs. Stab at hypothesis ... this is -AO mapped over a radiatively forced/seasonal warming. Doesn't explain how or why these intense vertical foci of heights are there ... The -AO result may in fact be less wave-mechanically a negative AO, and more just a numerical emergence of another systemic phenomenon. I guess it doesn't matter for the summer-lorn among us... stop the whipping! But, the mid latitudes are not getting summer so long as this below set up... And it's capped the entire world's N. Hemisphere, so overwhelming it's really effecting the pattern underneath at mid latitudes, everywhere... (120 hour EPS mean; 00z June 1 c/o Pivotalweather) The negative anomalies that garland the planet along mid latitudes is what drives the cooler appeal. This total compression causes this westerly/ambient velocities to be way, ..way stronger than normal for this time of year... while the total compression N-->S, suppresses hugely south ( that circumpolar continuous arrow) of climate. I mean this is so bad, I almost want it to just go true climate event and do something super extraordinary. But alas...we likely won't get to see that science awe moment; it'll only gobble 2 week of the summer. This isn't the same as a cut of west Atlantic low... or ensemble-line BDs typical of NE ...while west of Albany basks in Pandorian utopia spring curse... This is some kind of whack planetary problem in scope and scale. It's noteworthy for me.

Multi pulsing CG show from cell passing SW over the last 20 minutes. Small but intensely electrical cells

Small but intense cells popped up west and southwest of Boston

I can hear distant low decibel hums coming over the horizon from those cells all the way up here in the Ayer Also a field of dark bases with some vertical growth over top just expanded over the sky pretty much all quadrants where I am. I’m wondering if some overrun convection is initiating as the heat over New York tries to lop back over the boundary

I don't disagree with much of this ... My point is simply that we should strive to be better, as a people and society, then that which took place last week - that's all. China can do what they do - so long as ( ha! ) they don't do it to us. Which is probably inevitable, too. The mental illness thing is interesting though. I was talking to a retired social worker, clinical psychiatrist that worked in the 1970s, in one of the last federally subsidized insane asylums in the 1970s. Near the end of that decade, those subsidies were frozen and redirected. The 1980s arrive and suddenly the sight of a person having a heated debate with telephone pole, while passer-by's turn heads trying figure 'em out, became a much more common. The change in attitude and abandoning programs, released these fringed unstable folks to the common walk. But most importantly ( according to his discussion -which makes intuitive sense) created a failing framework for future generation support systems, to where levels of angst, to deranged types and the entire spectrum of abnormalities could not readily be guarded - not just to get treatment, they now get ignored! Expose those types to the over stimulating histrionics of the Internet gaslighting manipulation machine, amid a culture that protects rights to gun ownership to the grave... Well, ends up sending masses of them to that destination. When those programs stopped in the 70s and 80s. ...those that left those offices knew this was coming. It's just a lesser known perspective that mainstream media doesn't elaborate upon because there's no profit in news that exposes us to our ancient faults.

I'd say overall it came in 1-2 hr delayed where I am, and about 2-4 hr delayed working SW through the area. But rest assured, all areas end up on the cold side of this thing before late night. Maybe NW Mass holds out a bit ...and west of the Greens... It looks like it's "filled" the regions east of the Monads/Wachuset ridge to at last "spill" west... It's a shallow air mass, but with potency in that shallow layer... It's sort of given the false impression that it is weak but ...it's not. It's 57 in BOS with BR haze and strata/'dead sailor's ghost', and down to 62 at BED... When the sun goes down, the strata probably fills in, out to I95 ...may 495, with valley fog elsewhere. The NAM wants that band lurking NE of the region to come SW and choke off any morning sun tomorrow, such that the murk then gets capped over - it's like it's got this agenda to torture eastern SNE like an OCD. Euro agrees though... I don't think I've ever seen a more quiescent series of weather charts, days 4 to 10, like that 6 days of Euro model. I mean nothing happens in any direct, everywhere ... Dearth of anomalies. Zero restoring events. weird -

Battle royal between June sun and the cold Labrador sludge. As the sun goes down, ...unless the 'appearance' of momentum slowing really does go calm, the slab gets denser and creeps inland. By dawn, it's still slate gray. But therein is the question...if the boundary does run low on momentum and the feed into the backside also wanes, that may be less ... It actually changes the outlook for tomorrow too. Because the sun would rise over a gossamer veil, and we could brighten -

Interesting.. I was kind of more interested in the wind - like was there a noticeable shift as a 'valley jet' kind of feature might have set up -

Are there any obs down the Champlain Valley ? It looks like this BD is unclean and fragmenting, possibly getting an assist/preferentially riding along lower elevations. You can see it scouring out along the St L. Seaway, moving W over SE Ontario...then there's some resistance over the Tughill... Then it's scoured out down the C -V..., then more resistance over the lower Whites/Greens... Then it's bulged west like a prom night breast over eastern SNE...

It does look as though it is running out of momentum, doesn't it. It's still identifiable on hi res vis loop, scouring out the fractal CU.. But it has clearly slowed/begun having trouble getting west of Monadnock-eastern CT elevation axis. I'm not sure if that's dependable the rest of the way, today. Maybe, but the models didn't really do too well with that behavior, with a mid day deceleration taking place like that, with the NAM ( for example) on previous runs showing no hesitation careening it right down into NJ, unabated. One thing I am noticing ... again ( it showed up yesterday but at the time I thought it was just 'noise' in the models), they've closed off the 1016 pressure contour over SE NH/E MA...with actually d(P)'s nearing -2mb farther up toward PWM later in the afternoon. That's telling me that that this initial pulse was not as well back-built as these guidance illustrated on prior runs. Without pressure rises contiguous up the way, the source is cut off... That said, the pressure does begin to rise again near PWM ( up in lower Maine) later this evening. That would likely require a secondary push tonight if that occurs. But these are only 2 mb variances so... 74 here ... temp actually came back 2 degrees. Winds lightened off too. It's actually deliciously pleasant right now.

This could have used an air quality alert statement...

Yeah you can just sense looking at that, it'll want to fill into the region behind the front as the day gets on ... packing in eventually. I have to say, this is probably the more vivid example of a BD phenomenon in its purest form, I've seen in many years. I may not be qualitatively exactly right about this, but it seems overwhelmingly like our BDs have been more hybridized in character ... Sort of lost in other stuff, or perhaps wimpy in general. This? wow - I mean pollen plowing pulsed gusting. It was really through here like a gust front off a thunderstorm. The delineation in wind direction and in very short order, the temperature response, was just as quick. Also - in that satellite loop abv you can see that line extends out into the ocean by a considerable number of miles. I wonder if that's a subtle marine problem for vessels/'white squall' out in the Bay waters... I mean if your in a small schooner or some prone vessel, and then it leans over from out the blue sharp wind shift/acceleration.

Just offering a little perspective on this. It's all a matter of perspective. At this time of your, many are anxious to get on with the new season, to feel summer's exuberance and vitality, the weather-type events that are 'supposed' to come with, and all that jazz. Which at a minimum, the expectation of heat is a part of that. But come late July, when we're pretty fed up with it ...say three or four failed heat waves from now ( 91/95/89.4), and it's become annoying and it's lost it's novelty. The lawns are beige. It'll be a 91 maintenance grind and your out there having to do something in it, ...just how much would you wish at that moment this sort of jolt cold correction would blast through. Yet at the furthering end of the spectrum, when we are damned with a fascinating icing scenario, and risk going to 32.4 and losing the nature's art work, how much as winter enthusiasts we suffer the horror of watching the cold air fail.

Time sensy but check out this sat loop - this is fantastic! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Uh ... why are you asking me that? The mean T between PWM and PSM is 57 , overcast and ENE wind... You should wait awhile before yanking that chain - little anxious there LOL I mean the time tables have been outstanding modeled - pretty fantastic actually... This may be the first time I've ever seen one of these bad boys really match so precisely to guidance. 12z NE zones... probably 18z down near HFD... NYC/N NJ by late day/dusk.

mm I doubt it... The 3K res may be too much, but this spins the wrong way. lol You're temp is going to fall into the low 50s by dark, most likely. There is a band of clouds settling S, aft of the boundary. That will cap matters alone, but ... I gotta go ahead and suspect that the higher res models having 95+% RH in the BL...portends a pretty solid strata deck with even mist possible. We're not getting out of this...

Yeah ..that's usually the case. I've had a personal mantra since about 1993 ... if you see any semblance at all of a BD you go ahead an assume it will be faster and more potent by factors

Boundary's like a snow plow, only pollen

It may actually be more raw and worse feeling for Boston metro arieas and E/SE Mass, because the air is coming with more oceanic mixing - the peninsula effect ...it'll be cooler. But also, as the layer deepens a little, there is likely to be a genesis of strata mank, so it's not likely to stay 60 -

Lol, get ur long pants and light jackets ready.. BD front just passed Boston/Logan location. The temperature went from 82 to 62 in 14 minutes, and the wind is gusting to 33 mph from the ENE. Reality cometh!

Once or twice in 10 years I've seen a BD on a three day map...correct in near terms and ultimately hold back to being stationary up in southern Maine. Otherwise, no ... There's a reason for that. It's the lower level resolution of the models, and their limitations in understanding the boundary layer conditions - exactly - as the cold ocean, the mountains west, and the coastal plain ...all interact at the very bottom of the atmosphere. It's fuzzy in that region. Adding to that, cold air by physical law, will always travel under warm air because of its higher specific gravity. So, you put cold air in a fuzzy layer, the models are thus more apt NOT to see it properly... What that all means is ...it is far in a way more likely that a cold BD air mass will be missed, than seen - such if they are seen, the forcing for them must be obscene. A little hyperbole, but just very large. In other words, the uncertainty is always sloped in favor of actually getting them.

Mmm not really ... That's coming down along a steep azymuth but not from the NE or E. I mean it's all a silliness anyway - a cold front's a cold front. They go by one's location, one's location gets cold. Front. Nature doesn't care. LOL. It's all stupid... But BDs get a little distinction in that typically fronts move from west to east, .... or in the least have west component embedded in their motion. But BD's really do purely move with east component that deviates their motion from pure N. They can happen anywhere. But this region is particularly prone to them for a few complex reasons - That example you provided has too much west component to be "backing in" - at least from that look. But as an homage to the silliness of it, that front probably is a backdoor event, out in time, further south along the EC. It'll at some point run out of W-E momentum over New England, and then pivots around it's self down over NJ and starts moving SW for PHL/DCA....

What does the state of China's cultural have to do with the fact that the U.S.'s is unacceptable and teetering with intolerability - and gunning down children certainly qualifies to anyone sane. Nothing - ..that's the answer. Means nothing to say China is a shitty place, too. 0 logic China can be China all it wants - has 0 bearing on our seeking a societal state that does not do what transpired last week.

Wednesday may be a rock-bottom day. wow at the shear magnitude of that gloom - 12z NAM has Logan 48 or so Wednesday morning at 8 am under putrid gray skies. Really only gets to about 53 there before those strata rains come in toward dusk. Not sure how far inland that appeal claims ....but, seeing as the boundary clearly surpasses NYC's latitude...with sharp temp cuts upon NE wind shift around 8 pm tomorrow night, this is intending to inundate. Even ALB sees the dense Labradorian miasm spill west of the Berks/Greens, and all locations have problems with cloud layering and trapped/isolated cold in the regions Wed night, while strata rains pass through. Maybe we can at least get an 1" in the tills... This is a highly unusual total hemispheric look through these first 10 days. -AO has become an overwhelmingly dominant signal in the guidance. It gets very complex, but the suppression south of the westerlies, around the entire northern Hemisphere, as is portrayed in all ens some sources/means therein, and is triggering high jet velocities to weirdly south latitudes. That mechanically induces R-wave structures, a behavior that is lagging unusually deeply into the climate season, when they are typically breaking down. As above, the Pacific has an usual 'firehose' jet configuration coming into the west coast with a very vast trough over the top/embedded nadirs... Normally, that would send heights higher over mid latitude of N/A but we are not seeing that happen. The blocking at 60 N is forcing the main westerlies jet S, keeping modest negative anomalies across the expanse of the mid latitude continent, instead. It's just not very summer like. That Pacific above looks like a late October or early November circulation construct, with onset velocities --> R-wave coherency.

Yeah, I haven't looked at the soundings, but guidance rip-read looks like a standard good ole fashioned BD the way the majority. ....Rudely butting in.