Typhoon Tip

I wish there was a sort of "integrated electron-volts" index that determines the thermal size/weight of these things. Because it seems to me that which is being proffered by these recent GFS runs is pervasive, not just in the y-coordinate. 2012 was massive in that regard.. at it's max, I think St L to Washington were all high 90s/mid 70s DPs... 300 or 400 m either side of that axis something. But, a metrical calculation/integral would help rank these things, too - Like ISE but for heat anomalies. That image above has more contiguous regional inclusion surpassing 100 F than I can recall ever seeing... Maybe going back 1930s?? I know there was some extraordinary heat that overtopped from MN to Philly in one of those back whence.

Yeah that's what's been f'n with me this morning. That should correct lower ? I don't think that survives the next week of modeling but you know... I can't really discount the idea entirely, because of the Pac NW last June ( 2021), and the mounting numbers of "syntergistic heat waves" events that have been observed, globally, as a coherently increasing frequency. We have not really had one of those in Kansas... We've had two that got us close... 1995 and 2012 ... But the super heating deal that surpass the 110 is really a uniquely deadly sort of shit show.

Yeah...I vaguely recall that - I was but a small boy.. heh. I had just experienced my first EF3 ( the rating scale back whence) tornado from all of .5 mi away, as it bore a canyon through the business district of downtown Kalamazoo, Mi on May 13th (Tue, not Fri!) earlier that spring. Later came the heat, but it never really bulged very well up into the Lakes... In fact, the warmest I recall it being during the 1975 to 1983 era in the Lakes was a 96 once...but I was early adolescent and not really entirely aware. I think the 1980 heat down south got me interested in that.. .10 or so years later, came the 1995 Corn Belt to southern Lakes event, then I became fascinated. I don't want to be in the heat ... but it the synoptic meteorology is pretty interesting from a purely nerd's perspective -

Well... looks like we're getting run to run consistency for the ending of civilization in the Plains as we know it ... It's interesting when we think that all that has gone on since the industrial revolution is/was inexorably prologue to the invention of the models that thus predict the end of civilization ... for having created the models. That's an interesting story -

yeah, no problem - 'hey, can y'all give me a lift?'

Worse than that.. street asphalt failure and railroad track warping become problems a temperatures and high sun well below 115 .. That's not likely to happen out there ( btw ), with the GFS' dystopian cinema ... we'll see - but in 1998, the above aspect took place from heat in the 103 to 105 range in Texas. Dallas pinged 107 in that.. They called them 'sun kinks' ( tracks), but it's really just heat causes older track lays to expand beyond the contact points and being just pliable enough in the high heat to then necessarily expand they bend. It caused derailments. Modern lays ..I'm pretty sure are precalculated for expansion so that doesn't happen. With street asphalt it can cause the material to fracture.

From this range, you're actually better off if the front looks later rather than the 18z problem. I haven't looked at anything, but that's my experience over the decades. If the front is along a Watertown NY to State College, PA at 18z, you're doing perfect for 6 pm weakly bounded mesos throwing pulsed CGs and wind reports ... Dying as they move E of the Berks and/or diving S with the right turning curse of SNE, of course.. but at least there's a chance. Lol, no but seriously ... when fronts are approaching, we tend to produce a coastal planar barometric dip. That trough backs the wind W, which is then converging with SW wind along and just ahead. That does two aspects: one, it causes d-slope DP drying where the wind backed and that produces a quasi -dry line to evolve. The other aspect is that the convergence along the trough is a trigger axis. If there is substantive heating prior to 18z, and the front is still way back west over central NY and PA, that's usually close enough that increasing velocities aloft adds some shearing kinematics ...

Seee? Severe happens all the time -

Jesus Christ. ...hmm, 'instincts' for the win, I guess. I mean, the brazenness of that kind of thing - like it's one thing to pose immorally, from an ethic of criminal abandon on the Internet, but to be out in the open... an actual perp' at your door. Hey ...I guess give 'em props for having the onions to pot roast up a scheme in actual person. wtf chuck. haha. Ayer is an interesting town in state of gentrification flux, of sorts. We've talked about this at length and bloviating posts in recent years .. but the affluence ring of higher salaried ..more upwardly mobile economics has been propagating outward through the metro-west of Boston, out into the 495 belt through the 1990s, and has in recent decades now come out this far to Ayer - which is about 10 mile further up Rt 2.. As that income settles this town, there's is still a kind of a hang-over of lower income BS that still goes on... Not trying to be stereotyping but c'mon -get real. There are still 29-year olds riding BMX bikes to the package stores, cutting in between BMW SUVs in stop and go traffic ..etc. Sort of a mash up between "Ware" ever Mass with forest cleared, new neighborhoods going in erecting these standard form 500 thousand dollar homes. Part of me feels it is both par for the course that these assholes wouldn't get the gentrification wave and a sense of impropriety, as much as one is inclined to think that shouldn't happen here - but this latter sentiment is obviously a conceit if not arrogance, too. I get that. But there is still a kind of expectation when tony arrives. Like sophistication creates its own prevention. Perhaps not enough

yeeeah, we know - Folks just having fun with the dystopian cinema of the thing. We'll return the agoggery when there's a D11, 948 MB low stalled on ISP, LI for 3 days leveling a circumvallate 60" glacier around the NW arc from PHL to PWM.

Sort of related... heh ... weird, but I had a knock on the door, yesterday, and it was this guy from Omaha Steaks or whatever that company's name is... replete with b-ball cap and logo'ed polo shirt. Idling behind him was a refrigerator outfitted pick-up truck - it had the crest on the door. He explained that he was in the area doing deliveries, and had extra product ..." would I like to take a look," he would offer them to me at discount prices. I dunno..but something instinctual ( perhaps ) kicked in and it just didn't seem appropriate to have a freezer outfitted pick up, just show up out of nowhere offering meat for some reason. Probably didn't help that as the gentleman spoke, the one front tooth being the color of tobacco triggered all kinds of stereotypologies in me... Hey, call me a douche - I thought fast, and crinkled a slight one cheek grin and said, " I just wanted to let you finish, but sorry bro - vegetarian." Which I'm not...but, it was a remarkably quick and effective means to exit what was a subtly awkward if not shady encounter... I mean, does "Omaha" do cold call stops like that? anyone ever heard of such a thing?

I mean forget Sonora ... 'magine if we got an "Oklahoma heat release" ? Imagine some scenario where Earth's system could actually physically engender those kinds temperatures in that area, then a sudden, there's a repo of the ridge E dragging that quickly along ...too fast for it to radiatively give its self back to the cosmos along the way... It really would be 110 F at LGA and Logan

Lol.... 30 f'n 4 degrees C at 850 mb over Enid OK is comically dire

To go along with Brian’s

Convection enthusiasts are actually getting a butt-banged this summer so far like a wash-room scene in Shawshank. Typically... from orbit if one saw a persistent +PNAP continental flow structure, they'd be inclined to thinking the associated nadir in the east would have periodic if not cyclic synoptically driven opportunities for wet. But this has been an usual scenario where the calving of the flow and bottoming out over the east has been amid a dearth of moisture. Not outright and in total..no. But just in the means, we are not getting thundery rains, which can and does feed back to just having instability in the area when not in synoptic forcing, because that would circumstantially leave the region in elevated llv/soil and evapotran sources to work and bubble up under the static mid level cool soundings. You know, they weren't good summer for heat, but those 2007 and 2008 summers were absolutely spectacular CB rollers along the tropopause thunder bomb years. I remember 2008, we seem to percolate a severe thunderstorm watch daily at 3pm ...it became Floridian clock punching severe in the area. F' heat man... that's awesome. But this year, we're not getting that kind of sounding. We seem to have more of an open "wok" structured trough with continental dry air sourcing, in the means. Again, emphasizing that because no, it's not like that all time. But like today is an example of the preferred scenario - dry cold front in temps still making 80 F. It's an under-the-radar oddity about this season's behavior ... peculiar.

This last day ... day and half of runs fits the 'model persistence' too. I mentioned this in posts over the last month of what's becoming extraordinarily persistent ( really! ), that about ever 3 or 4 days or so, the models try to sell the western ridge progression to toward 90W, toting along the SW/W release, only to replay this same tape over and over again of tamping the synoptic heat right back west in lieu of a bullying in a NW flow over eastern Canada. It's temping to get sold on that... I'm not helping lol. Because I've outlined how/why we can be historic. Maybe should have hammered the definition of rareness that needs to come along with that. But my god... All-time heat for consecutive days for Iowa to N. Texas under a ridge dome nearing 603 dm ... Forget New England's imby for a moment, one would have to be a sociopath not to be concerned, let alone just being in awe for the shear Meteorological significance should that take place. I mean the "core" of the highest results does tend to meander day to day but the general region over 100 (by a considerable margin!) sticks in place for 9 full diurnal maxes straight, with said core exceeding 110F ... With numerous 115?! That's basically a climate event... That is probably the first indirect if not direct empirical example of what climate models have been illustrating: sending future Kansian lat/lon region thru desertification. Bye-bye agricultural belt in however many decades...etc.

That's no where close to the 'mid-range' by convention though That's like in orbit around the extended ...

The 12z GEFs mean for the wtfc range, actually looks east of priors with the 500 mb isohypses anomaly distribution - .... woosh! lol... No, but I mean this:

I think I'm onto the same aspects you might be seeing? ...Not sure I'm ready to bite on WAR obtruding from the E ( if so) like the classic look.. maybe. Problem is, the summer's so far not really behaving wrong wrt to all this higher latitude blocking - it's all fantastically complex, but the faster than normal polar jet and R-wave amplitude ( > than climo for mid summer) is actually a good fit for the easterly phase of the QBO. It flipped signs toward the end of 2021, ...and now it's penetrating through the 30hPa into the 50 as strengthening phase state. That's too bad it wasn't happening on say Nov 15 .. Anyway, that phase isn't really correlated as well with big subtropical ridge arc with a strong annular mode of the AO bottled up N. It's actually correlated to more relaxed AO's with tendencies to blocking and well... that seems to be biasing the summer thus far. All's well. That said, ... mid seasonal/radiative forcing may normalize the gradients ...temporarily/transiently offsetting all that. The idea of a shear axis evolving along ~ 90W with some WAR "could" fit into that/those sort of interlude(s). As that implies I don’t believe it would last… I think that’s why the GFS just keeps reloading Southeast Canada. There’s really less support for rising AAM. The upshot is that it would correlate well to an earlier winter seeing as these phases last for 20 months or whatever so will still be in a pretty strong easterly phase as we plunge through autumn. just poking the hornets nest

Yeah... goes without saying, no guidance is inherently very useful at that range ( D10 to 20 haha) but, I just outlined some observations about the GFS to Weatherwiz, explaining some of it's unique personality in that regard. Also, this nails what we were talking about wrt to the 'false' pattern change - 2 or 3 cycles where the GFS ( sometimes the others included) start hinting or outright throwing out the change, only to have the modeled pattern regress and back-tamp higher heights into the SW again. I almost wonder if this is one of those summers that does this the whole way, then... alas, September 7 -15 there's 'heat wave' under tepid sun.

... trying to avoid that, but sort of. Thing is, it's hard to know the "due" aspect because it's all discovery when the climate is in fact changing. One doesn't know what the end game looks like. It may change into a paradigm where we never get hot, at the expense of other areas of that planet becoming unlivable. etc... it could be that we are in a sense, 'over due,' and we've just been lucky. The purpose is to point out that a scenario like a huge SW expulsion sending magenta mass inject ..timed exquisitely into a 600 dam ridge bomb that happened to be synoptically forced from some other pattern modality... These timed events lend to extraordinary results and are not impossible.

Just to play Devil's advocate for a moment... We have haven't had the "synergistic heat wave" scenario yet during this last two or so decades of 'hockey-stick' CC - those events that have increased in frequency, globally, during these last 20 to 30 years. Particularly the last 15 ... I mean I just called it hockey-stick, but the metaphor of dove-tailing upward may be more apropos. Anyway, we've been above normal disproportionately ..as our contribution to the GW puzzle. But we have not really had that special kind of E.R. casualty with dying cattle in the fields type of ordeal like that which has incinerated parts of France, Australia .. .the Urals, the Pac NW last year... , or relative to climo, that which took place up in Siberia so hotly anomalous as to trigger methane permafrost blow-out cratering. Some hyperbole there for fun .. but one should get my meaning. We've been stuck on the B-theater district, awe-struck by nocturnal low biases. Whoa! That should really send the message of a dire climate crisis home! lol... Brian and I have been talking about this a bit over recent times, that it may be a matter of time before a western/SW heat release times with atmospheric rogue wave event, where the two then super-impose uniquely up in the OV/NE arc. That thing out there in the 06z GFS is, for the record, less likely to occur for the obvious essay of reasons... but, we are quite possibly living with a ticking time bomb where all at once, some event that all-times all records, between Detroit and Boston, like 6 superbowl rings - not likely to be ever "matched" ( dad-pun intended)

I've been railing on about this for 5 years ... LOL But, it's mostly on the cold side that it exhibits this tendency - will explain below how/why I believe it then lends to 'spiking' warmth too much. And...these are characteristics more observable out in time, giving the suggestion that it is time dependent. There appears to be an "accumulation" of colder heights over on the polar side of the ambient westerlies. This causes the base-state gradient to become biased, ...which expresses in fast base-state geopotential wind velocities ( mid and upper levels). Faster velocities directly/physically force R-wave structures; a general principle that immediately connotes the GFS may get a bit exuberant (heh) in setting up R-wave ordering. The other aspect ...sometimes this means more x-coordinate stretching/placement of troughs, that need some 5 or 10 deg of longitude back peddling from 270 hours <-- These big words make it sound almost like a big huge deal, but it's not - it's more like,...just enough to be really annoying. Think of all this above in better terms of 'tendency to do so'/subtle. But, subtle variances in the near terms, "butterfly" out in time? So if the GFS has a 'decimal'-scaled problem with too much height falls, that wouldn't be very noticeable inside of 2 or 3 days...maybe not even 4. But given a substantive passage of time, a cumulative effect becomes more observable. So, if 'wave harmonics' ( destructive vs constructive) emerge different signals as a 2ndary product of all that maelstrom, the GFS tends to give these faux warm up(cool downs) because the superpositioning out in time was fake or baked to begin with.

In 1984 this’d been 76 for a high. CC for the win(loss)