Typhoon Tip

Well... looks like we're going to nail the early call for big heat in the Corn Belt/Lakes, surmised last week. As Adv/Exc headlines cover a considerably large aspect of the contiguous U.S. ( actually..) including those area, perhaps adds some. The trek east doesn't appear ( to me..) as though it is going to happen ( at this point..), however, barring some changes - those could easily occur so not entirely sold ... but leaning away. Fine, one shouldn't actually want 101/71 conditions out side our front doors. What needs to change? It's all centered around the anomalous diving trough. It is noted that the Euro seems to teeter with backing off on that feature's depth and residency - we'll see where that goes. But yesterday I thought there was a chance that trough was partially faux. However, since, the +NAO has begun to conveniently dip in the outlook, after the fact, for 3 days, below 0 SD ... just long enough to perhaps justify that close vortex being there ... cold loading SE Canada/NE regions with October. The thing is, the -NAO blip in there appears to be the depth of the anomaly itself, pulling the EOF's down; there isn't any substantive high hgts/blocking, over-arcing latitudes, to numerically drive that nadir, otherwise. It still could be fake... I just don't like the fact that every guidance and derivative thereof that exists, has it.. LOL. So yeah... ah hell. It is what it is if it is The short is, if the vortex does normalize over the next couple of days of runs, it will expose at least the upper M/A to that mid west miasma, and bring it closer to here. Also, keep in mind...it's not all or nothing either. The trough could verify at half it's magnitude, and only stick around for day .. day and half and/or just evolve into a standard BD scenario. In this less more climate friendly scenario we get hot later on.

And then June'll come in with the 3rd or 2nd all-time hottest June in planetary history no doubt... It's become a leit motif where we're seemingly picked by the global system for cold landfill while the rest of the world parties in warm opulence -ha .. tru tho

Right - so ...either way, more than a half a year - wow

Is the NAM's selling a landphoon here ..

I mean the following is partial to my point... WPC's ext. disco "Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 15 2022 - 12Z Sun Jun 19 2022 ...Dangerous/Record Heat over the east-central/southeastern U.S. through at least Wednesday... ...Heat likely to become established over the northern-central Plains Friday-Sunday..." They're seeing it ... I guarantee you, that red font is 'hedging' - they know it's gonna cook. How much so? Lay the ground work for future advisories. Post D5'ish that could be a bad week for the Corn Belt, Lakes and western OV. That's a SW heat release dumped into a planetary ridge leading in... The two timed together causes these headlines above. Furthering my point, the ridge is being goosed in the guidance because of the meshing/constructive interference... reiterating, then adding the Euro bias at D7 leads to me think it's wrong. I'm thinking that heat may end up a problem to NYC eventually. They are going with a cooler cut in flow type, but they admit they are uncertain whether that will work out too well, "...Uncertainty with the upper flow pattern over the Northeast at that time lowers confidence in the forecast though"

Yeeeah it's still excessive with that diving behavior along/astride the EC, though. Maybe a little less than the 00z version. The other ens (GGEM/GEF) have that, but the azymouth is not nearly as due N-->S... such that they don't have momentum/curvature to cut off such an unrealistic looking feature. Imho, those latter versions are a better fit for a neutral-positive NAO, which should support progressive nature to the over our region. I think the Euro is getting caught up in it, because one ... it likes to curve the flow as a bias in the D5-8 range ( the trough in question right smack dab in the temporal window for that). But two ... I wonder if the intense heat in the plains/western OV that's dumped into that ridge, are then enabling the Euro... Between those two factors, it ends up powerless to stop itself from such odd look. Hopefully I'm totally wrong LOL after all that logic -

It's gonna be interesting to look up toward the western Dakota region to see if a thunderstorm complex really does take off this evening...The models either are onto something, ...or they are just responding to a lot of 'numerical instability' in the set up ... using f'ing butterflies ... Is it just me or is really perfect utopian weather conditions mouth breathing boring

I tend to be effacing much of the time ... I'm gen-X; we specialize in throwing our selves under the bus in ironic self-doubt. But I have to say, my ability to arrest engagement in this forums thread and see the login counts plummet ... is a unique, and brag-able talent. lol - no one clears a room like one of my attempts at lucid discourse surrounding summer weather

As just an on-going monitoring effort for chances at tall temperatures ... maybe the week of the Solstice (18th - ~ 22nd). The operational GFS has moved considerably in favor of the erstwhile PNA/NAO modes ... which for a number of previous day's worth of runs, it was failing to do so. The ens - derived PNA has been moving into the negative index mode toward/by the end of this next week for quite some. Meanwhile the NAO is/was positive-neutral out in time. So it was a bit of a disconnect between the operational and these other techniques. We really should have seen more positive non-hydrostatic heights over the OV given that scaffolding. Yet, the operational was persisting in packing the heights and heat back W, drilling these deep climatology oblivious grapple troughs through the lower Maritime. The 'hint' that it was all bullshit was because these large scale features were acting like standing waves - I surmised it was the heat itself - in part - causing that to happen. The big SW heat expulsions get trapped in the planetary wave signal, and together that constructive interference in turn then negatively interferes with the -PNAP/+NAO hemisphere. Fascinating if your an excruciating nerd like me... Anyway, that deep maritime "fixture" may just be a faux model artifact. Seeing the last several cycles of the operational GFS "correct", now actually resembling something that fits said telecon .. is thus more appealing. Looking beyond week 1, the Euro has no interest in this line of reasoning. It, and its typically non-dispersive ens means, continue to argue for a November trough to set up down the longitude/eastern Canada/ Maritime, and then holding it there until oblivion. I still find that to be less likely. I'm either going to be proven right or wrong in all this... But if right, ... the non-hydrostatic ballooning of heights over ORD-BOS in these recent run cycles would certainly support 90+ readings over that span of continent. And given to the -PNA --> -PNAP pulsations through week 2, we run risk of timing Sonoran/SW heat releases getting injected into that synopsis. I think it is worth it to monitor this heat-related Meteorology, because recent decade(s) have shown world-wide, that heat is a real natural disaster potential. And despite the bland normalcy and spoils of splendor we lavish in over the while, lending to a kind of smug detachment from that lurking threat, ... it's a threat that's still there. We here are either "over-due" for our turn in that boat, or, we are learning that this is one part of the World that is somehow circumstantially never going to see a synergistic heat event - we'll see which is which eventually.

They won game 3 with 12 turn overs ... it wasn't the silver bullet last night. Certainly didn't help matters... If they didn't get into a 3 point ego contest they probably would be sitting with a 3-1 advantave

Ah really? I've been reading that everywhere. That, and countless other species in mass diasporas due new habitats opening up to them, and/or just the collapse of nativity leading to escape/migration to survive ...many of which have been showing up here. Ticks with deadly pathogens transporting into regions where the local fauna have very little or no native immuno-respose. Nile virus toting tiger mosquitoes. Black widows now in Massachusett, Pa and Ohio...Michigan. Just to name a short few. Wolf spiders have been around for decades. I think you have a borderline fear/anxiety disorder with spiders. LOL... subject comes up, you're the first in line with doom's day scenarios. And if one shows up in your closet, we get constant siege comparisons to something out of Lord Of The Rings. Ever see "Arachnophobia" ? You should watch that movie, then, sleep naked out in a barn in a sleeping bag you never did a sleep check before you climbed into - on a dare.

yea ...I did. wasn't gonna get into details but that's part and parcel of the total manifold of that anomaly. Thing is, the ridge amplitude later in the week looks even more ominous - I think the models are setting up a counter-balancing mass field nodal negative ( heh...lotta big words ..) over NF because of the heartland forcing. -PNAP ridge with a ginormous heat plume embedded - the two kind of syntergistically enhance one another. Down stream, the flow compensates with a deep hole. I just don't know if all that is right in its entirety... I think it can be to some extent - feedbacks are a part of any dynamic system in nature. But how much or how little; the models may be too amplified with that trough - they typically are amplified with just about everything that happens in the D6 to 10 time range, anyway - so it's intuitive based on that performance bias. You guys out in Indiana are doomed -... You may say all-time flirtations

I watched the game ... It seemed to me there were intangible dynamics going on... Maybe even ego-related. But, the Celtics relaxed ... just oh so little but enough on defense to allow Golden State to steal that win. And it was a steal on their part - though they'll be the last to think so, no doubt! They were trailing for most of that game - then something happened in the 4th Q that I feel is pretty connectable to 'maturity' as basket ballers. The Celtics seemed to get into a 3 pt shooting contest with Poole and Curry. They fell for it. They fell for the old "oh yeah - we can shoot too" game. They should have stuck to what they were doing, which was solid perimeter D with Williams and their size shutting down the interior. That should work against this adversary. They may be able to match them at some point or another in a shoot out - but they didn't need to, and getting into that mode last night (crucially) in a 3 or 4 minute window approaching mid way through the 4th, put GS in control. Idiots. It was a bad offensive decision to engage with GS, at GS's game. GS leans offense on their opponents at at all times, such that moment the D lays off they've already scored something like a 8-2 run. Boom. The Celtics relaxed just enough, GS leaned, the CS tried to do it back and couldn't hit their shots. Again...they didn't need to do that. Tatum wasn't terrible. I don't know about the 'whole stardom' aspect. Frankly, I think Brown's been better as of late.

After Tambora ...I'm sure it happened pretty frequently that summer --heh. I mean, not for not, it can happen. That said, I feel pretty strongly that a goodly amount of present modeled synoptic scaffolding for cold delivery (cinema spanning the last 5 days so far ) is a "faux" response to the huge heat anomaly getting ready to go nuclear on the Corn Belt/ Chicago region of the atmospheric/continental volume. ...wow. Firstly, I'm becoming increasingly more suspicious that the models are either deliberately designed to do so, or...this is just a weird scenario where they are normalizing what is potentially coming in that region (D5 to 9). It's probably the latter? I've noticed with big numbers heat ...the models get hung up with convective this, or butterfly farts that, seemingly even inventing any means necessary to dim the range that can be achieved. Interesting... Heat's unstable in modeling. It's fragile? An errant Cirrus plume means 94 or 101 for example. But in other large synoptic aspects, it hard to hit heat from D9 and nail it... Usually, it's off and on - but coherent - and then it has to be short term before they shed the shit antics all at once and then it's a 104. I could see that happening out there, but we'll see. But it bears relevancy to us up through the Maritime... Because ( I opined this the other day) the intensity of the SW/Sonoran release happenstance timed so perfectly into a -PNP --> +PNAP to -PNAP sea saw, is causing a huge constructive feedback in the models - whether that happens in reality is a bit of an experiment... But, in the modeling cinema, we'd be establishing a ridge over Missouri and probably arming it to PA...mid Atl... , anyway, but, with the huge heat dump into it is giving it a huge boost, and the models then buckle the mass fields down stream to make room for it - 'what goes up, must come down'. So the flow end up veering more N, grabbing these cold plumes NE of JB up there over the archipelago for Canada and drilling them to Cape Cod and the lower Martime. It's the non-linear wave function, incarnate. I don't know if that is right... But, I keep seeing about every 4th run cycle of the Euro or GFS or GGEM...they flatten the exit flow off the NE continent, and we end up with more heat out west spilling SE into the region ...with less total blunt/ cold intrusions. 12z GFS nicely elucidates ...if one uses Trop. Tidbits nice Prev. function and clicks back, you can see how this run is correcting pretty dramatically toward less ( perhaps more sanely) cold. At least through D8..9. I believe that non-sense over western NF at D10 is part of this bias wrap-sheet.

Yeah... one can have circumstances in their particular layout. I tried my hand at gardening my first couple of years living at this residence. Circumstantially, my house blocked direct sun entirely until about 9am, so it was just doable at that end of the day. But the ~200 -year old Maple I lovingly refer to as "General Sherman," looms at the western edge of the property line with it's truly massive, dense broad leaf canopy. Those first three or so years ... by 2:15 ... its shade edge was half-way across the garden spacing. By 3, the garden had disappeared entirely under the total deciduous eclipse... It was like peering into an "outdoor closet" It would actually feel notably cooler walking into the garden at 3pm. RH off the massive tree and Earth ...and micro-micro meteorology effects. But I had those 10-2 hours though... and put out some amazing plant and fruit grown. But then there was a shift.. I noticed the shade edge was by then moving across the garden closer to 1:45... two years later, 1:30... something like this. Production dropped. Heh... I wasn't going to start deforestation on a 200+ year old thriving relic over tomatoes and herbs. That'd be like taking a trophy claw off a 70-year old lobster, then throwing it back into the ocean out of 'respect'. So it doesn't have to be a cloud index issue either. I dunno, maybe this is normal soil temp and we've just spent a lot of years with above normal.

I wonder if anyone's ever speculated and thought to create a kind of index for critical hours shading. Call it the "CLOUD" index, "Crucial Latitude Obstruction Under Daylight" For gardeners, most of whom need open spaces that are unabated to the sun ... suppose it were "bad luck" cloudier between 10am and 2pm .. .even partly cloudier - doesn't even have to be completely overcast; just enough to put the Earth on a radiation diet. Yet, partly cloud may go unnoticed as even very factorable? But then cumulatively, over a few weeks of that kind of insidious attempt by nature to f-up growing season without getting caught ( muah hahaha), the soil temperature is perhaps missing some amount of crucial kinetic charging - I dunno. Maybe the lows have been bottoming out more. Despite the last 20 years of elevated nocturnal temperatures notable all over the world and empirically measured, that suddenly stops only right here this last 6 weeks. Lol

I think we're getting a large scale feed-back from the heat in the Midwest...and it's causing the flow to torque around it. Over the next 4 or so days...a weak -PNA --> PNAP sea saw to more jet/trough moving into the W in about 4 or 5 days... That induces a huge SW heat release, trapping inside the ridge downstream of that forcing - so it's a superposition of wave phenomenon and going bonkers. Heat anomalies have thermal wind components that move into a clockwise fashion per Coriolis/wind response to the vector forcing - that creates a positive feedback into the ridge, over-amplifying its power. It seems unnatural to do what they are doing over eastern Canada, drilling a due S or even SSW from west of Baffin Island all the way down to VA. And notice... that precedes the creation of a -NAO block NW of Iceland... that is a non-linear wave response where the "faux" ridge in the heartland, triggers the "faux" coupled trough over eastern Canada --> forcing the block to erupt... Should be noted, the recent NAO numerical guidance have been positive to neutral - i.e., unsupportive. I think the ridge is getting a huge feed-back - unsure if that's really going to work out that way or if it is just a model artifact? But the models seems to be lost in it.

wow - no shit... I was just waxing the splendor down here. It's completely and utterly diametric to that appeal you described. Wasn't honestly attempting to rub it. This weird little low cutting between us is really d(shits) across the area, huh -

Full disclosure ... I had less formulated visions about today ending up this way, when looking over guidance material yesterday. Heh... I thought we'd murk out until mid afternoon and struggle N of a warm front to clear before a crippled frontal mess got east...then we have sloped sun late in the day. But this? Ho man ... it's 81/67 with that deep blue you get with clear air high theta-e. Only it's not coming from a Bahama conveyor..it's interesting continental origined. Either way, ...some towers scatter about.. adding sky-scape. Amazing summer appeal, at least for the time being.

That's typical of the operational GFS, though. It cumulatively aggregates lower/cold into vortexes. Something I've noticed since they started churning out new model versions like an ensemble line since...circa 2015. Such that out in time, it then uses it's own creation to have ended up manufacturing incredible gradients - That's a climate joke image there for late June for one hint, but the ens mean for that ~ time over the last three cycles is quite normalized by comparison. My thing is, ...I am not sure how much of that trough axis along 70W is real versus torqued up by the heat dome, thus an artifact of these modeling systems. If it's real ..sure, we can dodge significant heat from getting this far NE. But I don't like model artifacts. It is like in the winter... ? Sometimes we get a negative height 'node' between to more physically realized ridges, but when 7 to 10 days out ...The models "think" that's a real long-wave trough/ and embed deep events in them for manufacturing feed-backs. But then it just ends up being less or more like a standing negative region between two ridge nodes. Hurricane's interesting though heh. This model is also unfortunately [apparently] a bit tropical sensitive. We've been seeing those Yuk channel black holes in the extendeds since early May. Yet, it's not "entirely" false? Because we did just recently observe that paltry thing get belched out of the western Caribbean last week, the feeble result of the GFS's category 4 vision from some 11 days earlier.

WAR is not a prerequisite or limitation if one is not present. It certainly helps and heat obviously gets delivered via that type of circulation mode. But big heat or even sustaining positive anomalies in general can come from a more neutral Bermuda to WV, non-hydostratic height medium. So long as there is positive anomalies over Chicago and SE Canada, that can be a means to deliver warmth here just as effectively.

Well ... yeah. That heat last June materialized and then bled N into a Pacific NW and lower B.C./Canada ridge... It released to that region. Not sure if there were any more discrete attribution studies that went on to elucidate the possible feed-backs that took it from there, but the synergistic heat result definitely took place. That was truly a historic event - in so far as it had never been observed. It has to do with atmospheric harmonics, but at different time scales? No pun intended, but as a metaphor, take the solar cycle. There's a 300 year curve, along which there is a 22-year cycle and a separate 11-year that can be gleaned out of the 'serrated' noise. These can time on top of another another every so many Millennia or whatever the time it takes for them to align....etc. Well, if PNA tends to positive, and cooks the SW... then, there is a sea-saw event and the PNA --> -PNAP to evolve, that heat gets ejected... So the Pacific has come into sync with N/A timing... Kind of crude comparison - but just using that to help conceptualize how factors can time together. We've seen -PNAP with big ridges evolve over eastern N/A mid latitudes, not produce very tall thermometer results...They didn't get that crucial asphalt softening kinetic injection as they evolved. It's just the difference between being headline heat, or that 'special' kind. Lol But Weatherwiz was just describing/hinting at this, big ridges are part of it ..but they don't always have the meat stuffed in them.

I don't see how you can assess that ( bold ) when the AO numerical based curve is outright showing the mode reversal. That's not 'more of the same' - it is in fact, more of the opposite. But, we'll see how it plays out.

Hence why I said "rising" - as in ' moving forward' ? He was discussing the blocking in a context that read like it's going to persist - which may be my miss-read...I dunno. I don't see that image you are posting above, in the extended ens means, over any source really - and it doesn't show up in the numerical telecons either. All of which indicate a neutralization and tendency for positive. We've just passed(ing) through ( what I think is..) the last of the seasonal lag, the same repeating theme of springs we've seen over recent years. But that's terminating and just like those last several years, ... I see a 2 to 3 week window for synergistic heat eruptions and here we aer right on schedule with California to Pheonix - 'where does it go next' ? I don't think we can count on circulation modes above 40 N the same way we could over the mid spring period.