Typhoon Tip

Well regardless of ptype… The GEF signal trended toward the typology for powerful coastal storms. For 180 -219 hrs? This 12z cluster’s about as coherent for climo Nor’easters as can be … unfortunately that can be rain or snow but like I said… ptype aside. The op Canadian is actually a leading entropic lift event… and then when the storm winds up it actually doesn’t even have a CCB on land

What the MJO is doing right now has nothing to do with whatever’s happening 12th-16th. That’s A B, there are other factors far more powerful in dictating the mid latitude hemisphere for temperature distribution. The MJO’ is not one of those. C, the MJO “might” contribute… Or assist in modulating the pattern out in time – and there is absolutely a lag correlation. But it does not drive the pattern. Frankly it’s a little bit odd that this MJO wave is modeled to do what it’s doing in the first place, given to the antecedent an ongoing climate footprint But, climate like rules are certainly meant to be broken from time to time… And I can’t think of a better time than during climate change for that to occur - as a bit of snark humor lol MJO either constructively interferes or destructively interferes… And depending on which determines how much a given wave’s modulation can actually occur. The hemispheres might be receptive (constructive) with the MJO in phase 8 – 1 -2, just based on the uncouple La Niña state of the Pacific - which is not only looking more Nino like, it’s doing so rather violently… Which is a whole nother complex conjecture. But if so it would be later than next week

No overnight… that little critter for the 9th did come back in the models. This is no declaration as to it success… but there is a presentation there. … a minor ordeal that favors southern zone as it were.

Looks like that will have to happen in order for this to get anywhere close to a 2 to 3 inch accumulation… Just looking at the behavior of this so far, as other people have noted, very intensity related. When that band went through we did flip over and wasn’t falling heavy or anything but it definitely was convincing aggregates. As soon as the radar showed that band attenuate we’re right back to the light sleet and light rain routine. We’ll have to see if the meso models were on this or full of shit

Looked like it flipped more convincingly about 20 minutes ago but it’s since just done the same routine …having trouble committing

Despite the radar imagery we’ve gone back to cat paws and light rain here maybe the occasional bigger white streaks by

It is now… When we first transition it was kind of having trouble but now it looks like a Sno globe type snow …big aggregates. there’s no more sleet anymore -it’s either small aggregate fragments or bigger cotton balls. mesmerizing actually. The comparison to 1997 December 23 is not actually quite accurate though by the way - I’ve heard you reference that a couple of times the last day or so. December 23, 1997 was very cold that was the bigger contributing aspect to the model bust/storm result Then the QPF which was eye-popping enough. It started snowing it was 20° and it finished snowing at 27. and those were small uniform snow falling at choke rates. I mean there was no contention no mixing and it was way vastly more intense.

Having trouble staying snow. It’s going back-and-forth between uniform snow and then a sleet/ large aggregate mix

Transitioned to snow 1/2 hr ago 32.5

NAM seems to hold

This is some putrid quality tucking. The flags started pointing S here early this morning at 6:15 at 39 deg. 13 hrs later it’s 34.5. Flags still pointing. Chimney smoke’s rollin S. I can’t help but wonder if 20 years ago we’d be 29 by now

Ugly solution tho...

Bit more N-stream involvement this run...

965 mb 20 mi SE of ACK

It’s a bit rare for the same hemispheric space to wind up two monsters in such spacial-temporal contention like that, though. Takes a lot of mechanical power and that’s usually found around index disruption events. We still don’t have this latter aspect involved in the 12-16th period of interest, either. Ensemble behavior should be more heavily reliant .. Will be interesting to see what emerges out of future guidance - for analysis … not d-drip codependency issues. Lol. J/k

I thought the euro did look a little more heftier than its previous cycle on this - no? 12 Z yesterday was a bit more scant than 0Z etc. but I didn’t look at the 06Z overnight

Wouldn’t surprise me if a clap of thunder is heard. Little critters

It’s not a bad place to be… At this range you have something on the maps and that’s it – you don’t need anything else. You can’t ask for anything else. Or you can ask but you’re never going to get it As far as what the GFS is actually portraying … it seems it’s trying to do it all in the last couple of cycles based on the intermediate stream. Which closes off too soon trundles around and then lifts up the eastern seaboard while the mid level machinery is actually weakening. That’s why for the dullard uninspired solution. The previous “fun” runs had northern stream phasing, that has taken an absence in more recent cycles. However seeing the ensemble mean still having several members with pretty deep pressure anomalies between the Del Mar and Cape Cod and the spread being Northwest I think there’s probably still some members that have that phase. Just guessing.

Yeah I would actually also extend this into the Hadley cell discussion… Not really exactly the same thing but sort of related. Obviously know this but the Hadley cell being more at a global phenomenon. anyway… We’ve been seeing an increased frequency of these midwinter disconnects or decoupling phenomenon between the atmosphere in the ENSOs over the last 10 to 15 years worth of winters.

Yeah I mean theAtmosphere and the La Niña are more so than less in a disconnect right now … for whatever reason they’ve entered the uncoupled state. It has ramifications… For one during this interim we should probably not be as climatologically reliant because we are in that sort of uncharted waters - no pun intended. The other aspect is that we have a fairly impressive MJO wave and I’ve been monitoring it. It looks like it’s begun to expand across the equator so it’s not just a southern hemispheric transit-according to the models. Looks like estimating about 40% of the OLR is now on the northern side of the equator extending close to 10 or even 15° latitude. So tfwiw… but these are impressive wave momentum appeals going right through the cold north America correlation. The thing that really has me scratching my head is that not only does the GEF’s EOF refuses to modulate the PNA positive - it’s making that even more negative and it’s very concerted around that as well. If that were not complex enough… There is another option. We could see a negative EPO explosion with a negative PNA running underneath it. That would suffice also for distribution/dispersion ( Non-linear wave mechanics would do that. It’s basically when instead of going directly from A to B to C, A goes to C … while B remains relatively unperturbed) that oughta make sure nobody understood what I mean…

36 here. We’ve been shedding decimals as opposed to a ‘tuck jolt’ - was kind of curious if this would do that or the ooze

Y’all should have a thread devoted to this … Clearly the interest is sufficient alone.

Lol… .25 “melted equivalent QPF is “going to town” Man we’re a pathetic sort, condition by unrelenting abuse of neglect and starving to the point where atmospheric morsels and afterthoughts go to town. Man we need a solid 14” That takes another 18 hours to end because of a nagging Norland to with an additional fluffy 3 to 5

OK so obviously people’s attention is diverted to the near term …which that should be. I’m particularly interested in that system nearing the 13th or 14th more specifically because it’s quite impressively situated in the guidance and suggestive for quite some time considering there’s been very little or no Tele connector support for it - although I’m going to check last night it might’ve changed. Yesterday we surmised the models would probably begin to focus on either the 12th or the 14th as being the more likely - seems to be they’re choosing the latter. Little worried about wave spacing and so forth amongst other stuff lol

Not sure who’s said what since yesterday … but every ensemble system there is has lit up the 12-15th like an asteroid impact over the horizon at 3am. You could practically read by the intensity of the doom glow. Word choice for fun but more practical terms it’s actually an exceptionally coherent signal considering that still 8 to 10 days from now