Typhoon Tip

Brian check out that 2 am temps in that area... Like a hundred degrees... oy

Best to think of next week as entering a new regime - not that you're not...just sayn'. Plan on the sensible and empirical weather as being pretty discernibly different than pretty much anything we've experience, across New England since the end of May. Vestiges of that 6 week pattern persistence appear to remain ..in the form of a flat nadir over SE Canada. It's hard to know whether that is a pattern relaxation aspect, or if it is just the perennial North American pattern ( PNAP ) occurring in the absence of any other large scale forcing, ...but, in either reality ...we bleed in high DPs and occasional hot days, with [probably] noticeably muggy conditions in the in between days. That'll probably take us into the end of the months as a character. A time during which - imho - the region will probably go some distance in recovering any perceived or measurable hydro deficits. I mean ..we're looking at a bath of +PWAT anomalies stacked in the sky below 700 mb itching for triggers that the models don't pull beyond 30 or so hour very well. That comes down to butterflies f'n' ... who knows when they're horny. If there anything like Weatherwiz, we'll be building Arks though. If they're Kevin and his bestest BFFy, Epstein, ... we'll get healthy convective rain recovery while fielding diametric realism posts about the ongoing cracked Earth.

The 101 at 2am in southern MN on this 12 GFS totally happens all the time so yeah ...

Lol no warmer

‘Nother toastier looking run of the GFS.

Interesting word ordering there ...the 'synergistic heat wave'

Yeah..mentioned earlier, while no direct W/SW heat plume assaults down stream, there are these kind of non-committal ejecta that offer more of a indirect/mixing with continental cook. It's hot...but 'how much so' The 850 mb heat isn't also associated with a deep EML either but ...that 'side swiping' is similar in this context.

Check out this GFS surface synopsis ...18z Wed, 974 years from now... Note, 582 hydrostatic heights over such a large envelopment. That's f something to behold ...even if it is likely the GFS daydreaming. By the way, ...for the first time ever the UK office has officiated a forecast for London taking the higher temperature to 40 C, purely as a metrical/objective forecast projection. There's a little known global wave spacing -related telecon that when it is cold(hot) in NW Europe, it tends to be that way over the eastern U.S. Not sure if that works in the summer, though. But it "might" not be a coincidence that we are heating up this next week at least in "some" fashion, as it fits the 104 on Tuesday. But man... 101 then 104 for London, Mon and Tue? wow..

I wouldn't be surprised if that's an 83..87/ 68...73 type of week. I'm not getting a whole helluva lot of solar insolation vibe out of that synoptic appeal. Looks like morning debris ..then hazed sultriness with distant booms capping high potential. Definitely Mon/Tue... Thur/Frid ( for now ) look like the best chances for fart on the neck days.

That's actually a good question 'implicit' in there, as to "weather" ( heh ..) that perceived/modeled circulation changes are pattern migration versus seasonal forcing ? I don't know..I've been trying to find pattern markers up stream ( Pac and Pac relay into N/A ...) and there are some -but not convincing. It's very difficult to do that analysis at this time of year, with wave functions seemingly more 2ndary/emergent than propagating. I am noticing that WPC is also reacting to the Pac changes though by intensifying the cool anomalies over Alaska heading into the 2nd week. That does fit the stretching flow along 50 N from the Berring Sea across the Continent. At the same time, ...yeah, the erstwhile seasonal bias has been an unusually fast polar jet lingering R-wave structures into the summer. It's why the persistency in SE Canada was so anchored. God let that happen in November please - I love me some front loaded winters... What? 2010 since the last one? They fit better with my own preferences - I hate winter after about Feb 10th every year - but am happy to play the hypocrisy card when a rare March bomb is in the betting pool. I digress... Anyway, that anomaly with the westerlies really should be seasonally forced out at some point. Maybe the two aspects are not mutually exclusive events. Lord am I a nerd

As an aside... it seems to me just a-priori for the experience, that June was held down due mainly to dry air pulling the nighttime lows down, when actually ..the daily maxes were above normal. It was a matter of averaging magnitude in either regard, and the lows won by like -.2 of whole degrees. And even though July is, so far, modestly above normal, it is still being taxed by those desiccating air masses/ soil moisture memory. That's kind of interesting, if true. Because as we know... many of our above normal months ... dominating the anomaly vectors since the year 2000 really ... have been cited for having elevated lows in fact tainting the monthly means. So we've actually just gone through 6 weeks of antithesis to that.

Yes ... the recent era of merely above normal has to soon yield to even more above normal era ha. But I'm not sure how hot it will be next week? Because that looks like more home grown heat. We don't really have a W/SW releasing synoptics lending to that period. The lows will elevate over recent noctural behavior, though. 66 to 72 DPs with zip advection means to cleanse the continent will tend to stifle nights from falling. Need to think of next week as entering a regime change - I mean it's not a novel insight ..the models indicate the humid week coming. But the so-far July above normals at the SNE climate sites (+1 give or take a decimal) will likely no longer benefit from dry radiating desert nights. So that'll likely gain starting Sunday until further notice.

Mm ...I actually prefer the GFS for Monday afternoon and night's rain styling... The Euro looks too balled up and concentric with that low - smacks as feedback. The GFS fits the synoptic motif better, which features more subtropical ridge resistance ..so troughs and fronts are apt to laydown positive tilted, and we end up with those strafing bands of showers and thunder. Quasi training ..where you clip by a cell moving NW of you then you get one ...then the next clips SE so you get two thunders in the aggregate lol... But that looks like our first run-in with truly soupy air. 65 to 70+ DPs legit and deep in the BL with sun to 84-87 Monday afternoon... Good rains could take place.

Folks ... if you're not under the rain core of fast moving small scaled convection cell .. yeah, you're apt to getting sprinkles. deal with it. lol..

It's a tough call... Telecon's are useless right now. Have to go on the tenor of the operational trends and mash 'em up with season and persistence. Even in doing so you get a kind of even money on which side of the ambient front we'll end up next week.

Looks like it went about half way back to the 00z's heat complexion next week

interesting synopsis next week with the area flirting with heat wave if not succeeding, without much of a traditional ridge impression. It's coming by way of flow relaxation which was advertised beginning last week's indicators - posted about it.. .but it's interesting that the +20C 850 isotherm creeps up to the 45th latitude in some of these recent Euro runs, really without a very define presaged western inject. The GFS has that weird miasma of frontalysis and air mass convection that it's using to generate what I suspect is a model-artifact cold pooling in PA/NY and eastern OH bleeding into our area. Suspect model feedback... in fact that 'front' appears to spontaneous occur where that air mass stuff festers. Noticing it and the Euro have 75 DPs pooled in that area... The GFS just has always hates low level moisture since the MRF became the GFS... Likely to be a more convincingly elevated DPs ... and with that some air mass instability is understandable.

Stop having fun! ... we're all doomed...

"Dave ... Kevin here. Hey bud, can you tweet about hell on Earth cuz ... you know it's like true right -"

Right now... that's triggered Kevin to frantically surf Tweets and Google New England dystopian death drought 2022 to regale us with some pablum's dire warning or a chart taken out of context to fluff the sensationalism of our collective demise.. lol

Y'all 'ill train convection some night here sooner or later, and down a couple inches of water. At least for my own melange of grass types (the only species I don't find out there is crab)... it won't fade back green like that. What it'll do is start sending up new green shoots amid the beige carpet. I've seen that often when summers go through a desiccation period.

um... no

We actually were making out well with the aridity around our town along Rt 2 in N-central Mass...until about a week ago. While most had been waving the drought flags, we were one of those lucky locations that got a couple of random downpours earlier last month. That's all dramatically changed in the last week. Most yards around town went from hold out green complexion to tinder looking tan. I wonder if flag warnings are going to be needed soon. My own lawn is pokey straws at this point... very quick transition from salad to kindling over the last 7 to 10 days.

Where did you hear/read that specifically ... I just read ( actually ) a different report that says it was move to November in 2021 because of the Pandemic. Now they're saying Qatar heat ? I dunno - both aspects can be true I guess. Boy...our weather must be boring, huh

Heh...it was actually postponed to then - apparently .. - because of heat in Qatar https://www.fifaworldcupnews.com/web-stories/2022-fifa-world-cup-postponed/