Typhoon Tip

Right...but the trend may not be finished. It's a rapid trend onset. ..I'm not sure as a Meteorologist, 'they new by 5 days out' really means that much to me personally. These things can manifest at different rates. It doesn't preclude this becoming that. They have a history of this sort of thing in recent years and this season already ... seeing this same thing with a closed low near the Azores and that big 500 mb non-hydrostatic ridge in the region is too similar in the broader scope to gloss over for me. - just nuanced and it is very risky to rely on that. Morph that in 5 days into something more? not hard to do at all.. But honestly.. I'm really more interested in the recurrent nature of that general set up... being one reproducible, and apparently...increasing in frequency the deeper we get into CC future. That may be the deeper point to make.

One 'cane, two nor'easters and a thunderstorm oughta do the trick

that was actually a good film

Looks like the NAM-o-romma ding-dong model backed off the BD for Monday afternoon. Looks like SNE makes it to 00z Tuesday unscathed by a pube. Not sure I trust that... but, the Euro not having it either... tough call.

Oh oh...well, that's fine then - HAHA no I was referring to Kevin's 1980s "Risky Business" lawn

That type of single species grass coverage is appallingly unsound to ecology as a whole. It's become outmoded this era - in fact ... - with new and growing fad ( no doubt in part motivated because green 'awareness' is gaining popularity ...pretty much because it has to or we're ordering up ours and other species extinctions... but that's a digression for another ignoring session) that is taking on multi-genera layouts.

Much better! thanks - geez the 5 minutes were annoying.

Figured it was a later arrival.. man...it is just f'n hot as hell along this end of Rt 2. We got an impressive CB head with conjoining dark towers punching into it, visible to my south - buddy says constant thunder in that...but we can't buy anything overhead in this incinerating gap in the sky. It's 96 at all home stations within a mile or two of town's center, with DPs 70 to 73.. . This may be the tallest HI we've had here - brutal!!

LOL ... even with a historic fantasy bomb ...the models must respect the Methuen nadir -

Actually Logan's METAR -fwiw - at 17:54 KBOS 061754Z 19009KT 10SM SCT060 BKN070 35/21 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP207 T03500206 10361 20261 56015 36.1 max works out to 96.98 ...so excluding Meso west book keeping technique ... looks like 97 to me.

Oh. Wait. Wrong anomaly … sorry

actually only 79 due to rounding conventions Logan's 96.8 for 15 minutes straight so ...maybe that's legit

Does anyone know how deep the NOAA buoys sample the temperatures ? I'm looking at the station temp at 44005 ( for ex) which is out there in the GOM E of PWM ...and they're putting up a 76F Then I looked at 44098, which is 20 or miles ENE of Cape Ann and their putting up a 73 - wtf. I've never seen that...

90 ORH 95 BOS 95 BED right up there man

The last four day's worth of nightly EPS means have been amplifying another NW European, 500 mb non-hydrostatic anomaly - roughly centered on August 11th. As of last night, it has breached the 590 dm in/and continuing along that established trend. As for now, this is really more of a hot couple of days by their standards, but it is noted that there are still 5 days - the erstwhile trend to amplify further may not be finished yet... This could be more an operational effort, but ...seeing as these 'synergistic' heat waves are very much a part of CC - as per well documented attribution studies - and this is beginning to take on the appearance of being a potential intra-seasonal analog ( meaning it happened once, it can happen again before we exit the hemispheric summer), it's sharing contextual space with forecasting efforts. The 850s mb has also been maturing along the same trend, showing a 'river' of hot air origined over the NW African Continent, ... passing over the Iberian Peninsula, where there is less means to modify, circumstantially. This won't take much more modulation of these synoptic metrics to become another headline event for much of France and the UK. Even if this does not destined to produce ( ..in fact, it's getting kind of late for their latitude), it is note-worthy that this look is materializing again.

noticed this ... yeah Thing is, the Monday idea, it had that three runs ago but dump it... It's been stably non-BD interference on that day until this run ...which brought it partially back. It's a weird call because the standard 101 deterministic requirement of continuity doesn't apply with BDs... It's a phenomenon that is not terribly well resolved by even the higher resolution models ( though advancements have improved markedly over 20 years ago..etc) so it's more likely that detection at all is as important - Euro'll be interesting

Do you guys remember that fantastic 'pollen squall' event this last spring. I think it was latter May ... but that product Brian posted above reminds me of that BD event. It came through with winds gusting to 35 mph and 1/4 mi visibility tree sperm...

Well ...we can see there, during the antecedent 24 hours...it's opting for a bigger polar high scooting E through Ontario --> Quebec. If that happens...and hooks around the Maine White's extension/topography, there's nothing stopping it from setting sights on NYC ... I dunno- if the high is real and it lobes/does that end around, we're f'ed. This is so aggressive ( and a continuity change) from a model with an overwhelmingly ungood synoptic management skill in that particular range tho lol

I knew we were going to get that from the NAM. As soon as the range in question ever comes into its feelers, it does not wait around -it's like leaning on any chance to do it as a model framework lol. It could be an advantage of it's hyper discrete grid/BL resolution, but I've also seen that 48-72 hour range have to back off whence upon the short scope just as often. Monday is before the GFS contention, anyway, so ...it's probably seeing something else ?

Probably have spent more time on this than is ultimately healthy lol ... but, the course of least regret for Tuesday is just the straight compromise. I mean, it's weird when the two sides are so diametrical to one another - but ignore that These other non-standard guidance' I'm seeing are offering splits between those extremes of the GFS and Euro. It probably results in a slow suppression south of a near W-E oriented quasi-stationary boundary during Tuesday...and as it nears roughly EEN-PSM... ongoing convection along it, combined with the local circulation forcing when GOM cool air lurking there with outflow from that activity, together en masse help accelerate the boundary through NE zones... I don't buy 58 at ASH though. But everyone should be N of the boundary ( Pike?) by 00z Wed, either way... But I also suspect the boundary is weakening too... I don't think the backside environment of the GFS is very right ...as the persistent trends over the last 8 weeks has been for these late mid range troughs to flatten some/enough to bounce back the 850s - not sure I see a reason why that won't play out again toward the end of next week. We'll see. I think going forward toward the ides and there after, we are heading toward more pedestrian heat and or just tepidly above normal in between. We'll have to watch for a Bahama Blue pattern setting up... As the summer ages... the lower amplitude subtropical ridge passes through a period of time where the flow bottoms over the SE more - I think the GFS is sniffing that out, but as usual...going too far with it every couple of runs. But the general idea of it has some merit. Recent Euro runs have been flirting with MDR activity but... the hemisphere is non conducive - for now.

Fwiw the Canadian offers less support for the GFS' frontal behaviors ... but what's interesting is that it does have a stronger polar high scooting E of Ontario into Quebec. It also has compromised pooling of drier air over eastern Quebec by 12z Tuesday.. But neither it, nor the Euro, have anywhere close to the same 925 mb circulation orientation - the GFS has a 10 kt NE CAD flow... the others have a 20 kt west dragon breath.

No one is being "bated" We're musing about the differences in the models -that's all...

I guess... compromise? Longer read for anyone interested: A glaring difference between these runs is the handling of several synoptic metrics over eastern Ontario thru Quebec from late Sunday through mid week. The GFS ends up with a 1026 mb polar high... replete with pooling the size of Texas of DPs in the mid to upper 30s N of Maine by Tuesday morning... The Euro does not have nearly that much sfc pressure, nor the pooling - DPs around 50 in that same area. So naturally... if the GFS is going to succeed in a 1024+ mb polar high passing through that region ( the Euro does not have) it is not only going to 925 mb a CAD jet into the area, it is going to also pull from that large region of much drier DPs and drill that into an erstwhile raining/convective debris over eastern NH/ME...and there we go. It's like the GFS is a giant A.C. processor. It's also odd how the GFS holds the hydrostats so lofty while mixing the BL down to autumnal normals by 18z Tuesday per that 06z run... It's either an exceptionally ( albeit harmless) rare result, or something's amiss The GFS is suspect to me because it is still deeply within the vegetating boreal summer landscape, below the taiga belt. Whatever processes the GFS thinks will set all that up, its not clear it is enough/how it offsets that continent/evapotran factor, enough to manifest that much dry lower troposphere over Quebec. Interesting test. This could not be more black and white between those two guidance sources.

That's a bit of an usual modeling scenario ...to have it < 96 hours out, and the operational Euro and GFS vary by 30+ F over S NH a rare circumstance.