Typhoon Tip

Yeah...I was casting that sentiment to ... k12345 or whatever his/her handle is ..that acclimation plays a factor ( obviously ) in how 'heat' is perceived. I mean, we probably don't really even mention today and tomorrow in mid August, as by then, we've had at least 8 different failed heat waves that were forecast to be significant threats for big numbers ... that ultimately resulted in 89.7's ... But for the time being, 91 down here with 60 dps is hot.

Odd... NWS sites all seem to be holding the temp down farther than it really is? I realize these home sites tied into various Internet source/networks are not official ...but when everyone is 80 to 82 and BDL and ASH are both stuck at 75, plus, it physically appeals to be in the 80s out side ... that strange. Meanwhile, ORH is 77 ?! ORH is warmer than BDL, on a sunny morning in June under a building heat pattern... okay I do see that everyone is within a flag wobble of dead calm right now... maybe there is a very thin decoupled layer around these ASOS sites, where by advantage of 1,000' altitude, ORH is getting more mixing - so far. How's all this for crushingly nerdy tedium LOL... oh god, please help me find a life

Yup... this appears to be the canvas into the first week of July ..perhaps beyond. I've been more than less pushing that same idea, that we flirt with higher potential but more likely we do maintenance +1.5 dailies. In other words, the CC signal ( partly kidding) I think it's interesting that there is such an active R-wave signal around the hemisphere this late in the season. I wonder ... should that wane off more akin to climo, what happens out there. Talkin' deeper July

As an aside it doesn't anecdotally recall for me that they are doing very well with the west coast, nor locally, over the past month. Despite our 'sensible memories' on where and what the weather has been and done... we are modestly above normal at all climo sites for June. Meanwhile, it seems these day 8-14 anomaly projections have always been neutral to below average over this region. That, and... the same is true for the west coast. I seem to recall a lot of outlooks that similarly called for neutral or even blow normal centered on California, meanwhile, they've cycled through perhaps 4 different headline-able heat criteria .. including the one ongoing now, for the Imperial and Central Valley - this time extending up in latitude to coastal Washington/Oregon. They've been very good over the Arklotex region and the MS/Missouri Valleys, however. It's likely ensembles are too amplified - in and out metrical analysis ... We sort of see this anyway ourselves, as we routinely have to modify these GFS Octo vortexes over Ontario - we just f'n did that over the last 2 days. The 4th of July, to which fits in the d10-14 range (btw..) had a 540 dm obtrusion of cold into NE for three runs... Gone. It's a seasonal trough at this point. So... point being, the ensembles probably are not dispersive enough and mirror ( to some degree (pun intended haha) ) the operational tendency to core out super massive black holes. I think nested in that confusion is a clearer truth, however, that we are not seeing any kind of semi-persistent eastern continental heat dome/ WAR -like circulation modes. Yet ...I mean, I'm not debating the whole of the season here... Sometimes Junes can be assholes with the pattern.

It was never slated to be big heat numbers this weekend, no. Heat around here is seldom ‘long lasting’ but … 90 is 90. Acclimation plays a factor and for most NE’ers 90 is hot. Also … in this type synopsis most locations have a shot at being a click or two above machine interpolations. As far as coastal locations … it depends on the flag wobble. If it doesn’t happen to be offshore at Logan for example they’ll be farted on by Boston’s bum pointing right at them.

Hot weekend in store... It's already coming in...The temp here has risen 5 F since 3pm ... now 80 ..after the thunder passed earlier. The NAM grid has very little temperature falls nocturnally out at Logan with SW offshore flow developing... and then it's up to 31 and 33 in the 2-meter both tomorrow and Sunday afternoons. So, whether y'all are grousing ( but in private really celebrating) that corny GFS look out in the the extended, at least in the foreground there's plenty of summer to be had. Also, there still a flirtation, synoptically, with siggy heat this next Thur-Sat

...This happens as white privilege continues to gentrify their native habitat

Yeah... I agree there are some terms ... really laughably included - or assumed to be a necessarily part - of the whole movement to cleans ourselves of these cultural biases and so forth. Like, 'slave to' in electronic and IT ... it has nothing to do with humanism in that context. But perhaps the mere specter of impropriety is enough to impugn for intent? That's fascist in a lot of ways, if we really want to drill into the philosophy. Redskins is comically obvious the other way, tho - yup. My only point in this discussion is that we need to be careful that we aren't inadvertently filtering or biases based on a real phenomenon - white privilege is real. There's evidences of it everywhere. But unfortunately, ...a lot is intangible and harder to explain or outright see. Heh, it may be why everyone is changing names and labels, as sweeping reform doesn't bog down in semantics over what is and isn't allowable. Yeah ( LOL ) this isn't really weather-related, huh -

Well ... yeah, that element you describe is at the heavier gradated end of it. I was raising the point - or trying to...heh - that white privilege "influences" even those that try to see thru it. I don't think the individuals involved in this thread's morning exchange are 'racist' or 'misogynistic' ... but we are of this latter ilk. It just can't be helped. Not seeing or sensing the urgency in being called an Indian and so forth, struck me as abandon by circumstance just the same. I don't know what the percentages are ... but yeah, there are those that don't want or care to ever see thru it [ enter any myriad of reasons contributing ... from basic morality, to plebeian and/or "traditionalism wit's shimmering example of enlightened insight" ] By the way ... while on the subject of sociodynamic woes: Roe v Wade just got overturned... Just one small step for man, one giant leap into a populism regression ...completely not within the doctrine vision of this society's founding forefathers - Prediction: the conservatives won this 4 .. 6 year coup interval, ...but they just f'ed themselve out of the longer result; election and voting turn out because this will probably galvanize a movement against. I don't know tho -just a guess.

Just playing devil's advocate ... Those in this conversation presently hail from a cultural heritage steeped in this thing called 'white privilege' Oh, we don't think of it as such. We have complicated lives that piss us off, too. And take things away from us. Afflict struggles that f shit up ...etc. What privilege, right ? But fact of the matter is, those who are not of that cultural bias, encounter just as many life travails, PLUS a smoldering sideways looking society they were born and native to, PLUS 'institutional assumptions and stereotypes' It just is what it is, and is quite true and real. We live in an era now that for whatever complex sociological reason, has become intensely introspective ... exposing these aspects. From Me Too to straight up racism and back, all of it is exposed. And unfortunately, "labels" ( including team labels ) are examples of the institutional assumption - See, you have to be in pain, to understand the angst in being called an "Indian" - something as whit folk, we never really have. We can vicarious attempt and/or be sympathetic all we virtually force ourselves to be, ...and perhaps really feel. But it's never the same. Sometimes helps to make an example to compare. Suppose you created a new NFL team, like the Vegas Raiders, only you called it the Vegas Gay Rapers instead. Does that seem right? I mean, since we are human beings, and an absolute machine or "Vulcan" -like dispassionate gearing of society is IMpossible to achieve given our nature at a species requirement, you get into false-logic problem when allowing degrees of egregiousness.

Heh ... there is a SW heat release, but it is more so in the operational runs than the ens means. That said, this recent closed low retrograde causing a stalled band of cloud and showers thing ...that was ferreted out by the operational runs and the ens means had to capitulate. Sometimes these higher resolution/souped-up versions will pull from the other direction like that. It's coming across at a lower trajectory than is ideal for us here, though. We're along the synoptic N edge... in a summer that although young, is showing early signs of nadir-ing the flow over NE whenever it can. I suppose for heat/summer enthusiasts, you gotta start somewhere ... maybe this one will do what none other could before: get here The only thing is, there's a elephant ass vortex rollin' through Canada along the 55th parallel... The GFS, as is typical at this range ( 168 - 200 hrs) accumulates too much depth in that feature ( 00z ), shamelessly ending up with a 528 dm non- hydrostatic height core (D8, 00z) while the NH enters the hottest climatological heights time of the year... no problem - It's been a problem with the GFS guidance I've noted for the last several years actually, that it always is the deepest vortex guidance at D8.. It seems to correct as it get closer in time, but along that temporal outer seam between the late mid range and extended...? PF posts happy and giddy about trough parades... But hey - we have model cinemas that our forefathers never got to be so psychotropically addicted to, lubing our moods with dopamine drips our otherwise dysphoric lives fail to provide. They certainly serve a purpose. Thing is... the GGEM and Euro do something similar - which is to mean, they kind of end up with too much L/W power out in time, too. They arrive there for different reasons, tho ( probably). The GFS, I think ... accumulates /integrates dynamic cooling surpluses that integrate mechanics. The Euro has a normalization scheme that tends to suck the life out of smaller wave protuberances giving their energy to the L/W trough ..thus, falsely creating constructive interference to convert that one lottery winner cumulus cloud into D9 coastal bomb. The GGEM is just an amp happy POS out there in time no matter what.. Where as I, as usual... tried to pen something simple and quick but forgot along the way ... no one reads length anymore. I think the models may "fill" that vortex over eastern Canada along it's trajectory way. That could provide a more N ejection axis for the kinetic air layers. It's tough though...because even though everything above is true, we have a separate kind of a cold butt-plug problem going on that is causing the flow to cut off/ curl back SW in NE .

Punchin' the clock on what appears more and more to be a dependable global-scaled aspect/concern during warm seasons.. https://phys.org/news/2022-06-summer-swelter-persistent-spirits.html

I had heard/read of marine heatwaves in the recent past, but the 'direct' causality aspect is a little new to me. Meteorologist's inquiry I'd be interested in the fuller explanation of the total circuitry there - I mean it's not like there is some button pushed that has a label reading, "cook fish" It's easy to imagine, anthropogenic C02 and/or other anthropogenic flux attributed warming, then causes the planetary circulation modes to change. The SS stressing patterns change with it. That disrupts the prior thermal distribution. Given time, that then integrates to depth ... etc. But there is also conduction thermodynamics in the quasi oceanic-atmospheric exchange. Heat source/sink in either direction should obviously matter. Example, warm water does not evaporate as fast into warm air that is by nature already holding more water vapor. Less phase change means less cooling of the water. Also, I am not certain, but I wonder if IR radiation, the other way a black-body cools, is also effected because the ocean and the air then come into equilibrium at a higher temperature, such that the water doesn't cool as fast from that mechanism, too ( it does not radiate heat at the same amount). These factors prooobably make up a lot or some of that circuitry? But ... I don't have access to a retinue of over worked red-eyed grad students crunching numbers to back my rise to insight glory here ... Anyway, these seemingly minor lags in winter cooling, set up the following warm seasons to achieve warmer and warmer SST states ... It doesn't take a huge leap of intuition to see how that's a kind of "quasi" ( or like a -) run-away effect.

Scattered air mass crispies tomorrow and garden variety showers with a crackle or two ... 91/61 type heat Saturday 94/62 Sunday ...heh, that's getting up there actually. Reset to climo Monday by way thunder/front, but nothing annoying after. Heat may return late...

Single species green grass is horrible for the ecology. The healthy balance of the latter requires a bio-diversity in every direction, that which cannot be footed by grass, alone. If there are gardens? They do much better if they are adjacent to this competition, which brings in pollinating insects - that's just one example in how the ecology requires diversity. ...Duh. But, in particular ...when neighborhoods are developed with bifurcating asphalt streets/divisions, where the abutting lands create a patchwork of exclusive, excessively maintained grass/lawn care .. you are thus contributing to an unhealthy natural setting and ecology. This is making the 1980s "Stepford" lawn look increasingly outmoded. There is a reason why in progressive 'state of the art' regions, where awareness of this has led to cultivating low elevation pollinator flowering species, and is becoming practice. And it's not just "weed" - it's choosing Japanese Iris, and alpine Delphinium sub-genres to grow with the grass, and allowing White Clover to integrate, along with grass. That is a vastly, vastly healthier lawn ( as just an example). And by virtue of stunning flower displays, there's no aesthetic contest. Those that don't know about this/that it is happening ... probably live in a cultural mindset that is older, but are unfortunately on the wrong ( and getting wronger ) side of history.

I wish Dr. Paul Roundy ( ...I think he's a doc by now...) still ran that probability product available on line like back in the old days. I found that tool to be more than merely eye candy. It seemed to do rather well at early detection for development regions of the Pac and Atlantic expanse. Not so much going forward, but the recent MJO and orientation of the R-wave correlate to eastern Pacific then relaying into Atlantic TC genesis, and now ... the 00z GGEM and Euro both have suggestion for MDR development nearing the Islands if just for sport. It's obviously hugely early by climo for that region, but it is what it is

Depends on what we mean by 'heat' in this context. If we're dancing around the notion of 'big' as an adjective? I'm inclined to agree - but inclination isn't an outright sale, either. Lol. No but it's likely to be 90/59 on Saturday, and perhaps 92/62 on Sunday or whatever ( I have spent retentive time on it this morning...) Even though the 850 mb kinetic expulsion goes through that aspect you noted, where it collapses roughly BUF's longitude, the 850s are warm nonetheless. Muse: This whole closed(ing) mid level thing off the upper MA/NE coast ...it isn't a "coastal" in that sense. It has very little lower attending expression .. of which is missing, a CAA region around a west arc of a cyclone model... It's one of those ordeals where as it pulls away, you default warmer. We see this behavior in the early and late chapters of winters ... where the colder aspect was the front side of the event. Then as the low moves away and the sun comes out, the temp rockets to 44 F that afternoon or the next day... and that beautiful 10" of new snow ends up 4" of glop. So the weekend ... the OV to NE region defaults under +15 to 17C 850s, with [apparently] low ceiling RH, while slowly increasing WSW gradient spanning those two days. By convention, 90 is hot .. it's just not very big. Little longer: Also .. further down the road, there's a dicey period D8.5 - 11 on these models. The 00z and 06z GFS briefly closes off a 594+ dm contour over the upper mid Atlantic during that span, and both the GGEM and Euro indicate a significant mass of SW released air is/has extended all the way to the Va coast across the continent at that same time as the GFS. Meanwhile, the telecon footprint -PNA is still in place... I'd call that playing with fire ... Heat's really fragile in guidance, and in practice once above ~ 35 N. It only takes a subtle outflow from shower two towns over to undermine a hot afternoon. In the macro sense ( in guidance) just about any perturbation imaginable tends to offset big numbers. Be it a poorly timed debris plume off an MCS ... or a diffused front below the sensitivity of WPC's detection.. The closer to 95 ... 100, the more perfect things need to be. But, the flip side of the fragility is that it can be 'hidden' by these offsets, in guidance, and then if the guidance removes the offsets...it can emerge rather quickly. In the period leading and going through the D8 to 12, there is a -PNA hot signal that appears to have the elephant ass of the polar regions suppressing it south. It's like spring loaded heat in a sense. If/when the N branch of the westerlies relaxes thru S/SE Canada, the heat end up N in tandem. If the N stream is correct as is, we narily miss.

Little time sensitive but present IR channels reveal a sizeable warm eddy seclusion has severed and meandered N of the g-stream axis. … about 250 naut mi SE of Cape Cod

He musta been using the NAM then

I had been watching it all morning ...because I have such a richly fulfilling and meaningful life otherwise ... and it's been interesting to see this rarity of improved conditions materializing from the Labradorian region - it's almost like the curse tried to hard and over shot. Lol Bust seriously it's got to be a unique synopsis to drive this total scenario like this. Over the next 30 hours, we see the closure of mid level circulation then drive west some 350 naut mi of distance from 65 W to nearly 72 W, some 3 standard non-hydrostatic intervals of depth ... That's an unusual feature and trajectory combination at this time of year. That sort of retrograde motion is more apt to occur in Feb and March, for seasonal reasons/concepts. But in doing so, this bulging west of the warm front and associated cloud band did seem to happen in lock-step with the backing 500 mb flow that is currently taking place S of NS. It's ironic that a close 500 mb/u/A low causes nice weather to happen on the coast? like wtf chuck -

Interesting ...trying to clear from the E... Looks like the flow aloft is beginning to back with that expected closure off-shore. Last couple of hours, the eastern edge of this stubborn multi-day band of piece-o-shitness clouds is beginning to bow west from that exertion. I can see open blue sky like 5 mi E of here,while the sun overhead is completely gone. It's a very sharp edge.

Yeah... I mean, the topographic forcing is a sufficient "trigger" - if we want to call it that - for that Euro scenario. I was just looking at the NAM and GFS ... no interest. It's all Euro, but it has been consistently painting that 18z pop off. I dunno - nice test for the Euro happy mixing. The old ETA versions ... of which the NAM roots its heredity, used to be an outstanding tool for 'convective initiation' - whether by accident in the model's design. Talkin' way back there though. Like 1995 when I was up at UML ... not sure if the versions and time-dependent human mangling of the tool may or may not have cleverly made it bad at convective initiation, also by accident LOL I'm not frankly sure what the NAM's usefulness is outside of convection physics and dopamine excitement at QPF numbers on the 72 hour grid ahead of coastal storms that are also biased too far NW.

Hey 'Wiz ... this is what I was mentioning to you yesterday, about subtle reasons to be engaged- heh ...I mean it's all we got after acceptance of what we are around this region of the planet. But this is a cut out of the 06z Euro, and this smattering region of QPF is convectively sequenced ... notable from 12z as non -existent, then blossoms nearing 18z. Not a big deal and wouldn't be mentioned but .. those are crispy towers and zap threats to golfers nonetheless... I like those kind of sky scape artistries of summer air masses. Nice towers for serious bun times ... the smell of warmth has its aroma, and then a txt arrives from a long lost dream love ... Oh wait - Of course...it may also be overdone .. heh. As we know, the Euro tends to mix and extend BL too much - not sure if that's an augmenter to convection but since both are UVM related .. Re heat this weekend: I'm noticing the 2-m products suggest sucking the DP out of the air, as it the air mass spills E of the western OV/E Great Lakes... Some of that is d-slope, but I wonder about these erstwhile deficits lending to that. It's kind of like a inverse dry-line somewhere along the spine the Apps. But 63 to 65 type air mass seems to end up in the high 50s across SNE ..both Sat/Sun afternoon, when both global models have 90 to 95 west and north of the marine zones. Maybe a dry heat pulse. I'm starting to wonder if this 2023 warm season is going to go down this way ... Like, for ever 10 days of translucent blue and/or temp challenged scung overcast like today, we finally get 2 days of summer where we pay yet more in curse-taxes for existing here with stealing DPs or some other shit to take something back... unreal

Look at this monsoon anomaly that's transiently sending clusters up the central Valley of California .. nice. Not sure y'all been following the world, but California pretty much won't be inhabitable in 30 years without some seriously stream-lined desalinization tech and implemented distribution infrastructure. No problem - it'd take the GDP of the United States for 50 years to pay for the f'er but it could be done. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Cen_California-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined If a TC were to ever get caught in that trajectory ... something like that is really what California needs - or perhaps not. Not sure how the geography would handle a 20 inch, "Mitchian" rain-out scenario when dry compaction has choked off all the macro-pores in the ground.

https://phys.org/news/2022-06-systematic-pool-pacific-due-human.html