Typhoon Tip

noticed this ... yeah Thing is, the Monday idea, it had that three runs ago but dump it... It's been stably non-BD interference on that day until this run ...which brought it partially back. It's a weird call because the standard 101 deterministic requirement of continuity doesn't apply with BDs... It's a phenomenon that is not terribly well resolved by even the higher resolution models ( though advancements have improved markedly over 20 years ago..etc) so it's more likely that detection at all is as important - Euro'll be interesting

Do you guys remember that fantastic 'pollen squall' event this last spring. I think it was latter May ... but that product Brian posted above reminds me of that BD event. It came through with winds gusting to 35 mph and 1/4 mi visibility tree sperm...

Well ...we can see there, during the antecedent 24 hours...it's opting for a bigger polar high scooting E through Ontario --> Quebec. If that happens...and hooks around the Maine White's extension/topography, there's nothing stopping it from setting sights on NYC ... I dunno- if the high is real and it lobes/does that end around, we're f'ed. This is so aggressive ( and a continuity change) from a model with an overwhelmingly ungood synoptic management skill in that particular range tho lol

I knew we were going to get that from the NAM. As soon as the range in question ever comes into its feelers, it does not wait around -it's like leaning on any chance to do it as a model framework lol. It could be an advantage of it's hyper discrete grid/BL resolution, but I've also seen that 48-72 hour range have to back off whence upon the short scope just as often. Monday is before the GFS contention, anyway, so ...it's probably seeing something else ?

Probably have spent more time on this than is ultimately healthy lol ... but, the course of least regret for Tuesday is just the straight compromise. I mean, it's weird when the two sides are so diametrical to one another - but ignore that These other non-standard guidance' I'm seeing are offering splits between those extremes of the GFS and Euro. It probably results in a slow suppression south of a near W-E oriented quasi-stationary boundary during Tuesday...and as it nears roughly EEN-PSM... ongoing convection along it, combined with the local circulation forcing when GOM cool air lurking there with outflow from that activity, together en masse help accelerate the boundary through NE zones... I don't buy 58 at ASH though. But everyone should be N of the boundary ( Pike?) by 00z Wed, either way... But I also suspect the boundary is weakening too... I don't think the backside environment of the GFS is very right ...as the persistent trends over the last 8 weeks has been for these late mid range troughs to flatten some/enough to bounce back the 850s - not sure I see a reason why that won't play out again toward the end of next week. We'll see. I think going forward toward the ides and there after, we are heading toward more pedestrian heat and or just tepidly above normal in between. We'll have to watch for a Bahama Blue pattern setting up... As the summer ages... the lower amplitude subtropical ridge passes through a period of time where the flow bottoms over the SE more - I think the GFS is sniffing that out, but as usual...going too far with it every couple of runs. But the general idea of it has some merit. Recent Euro runs have been flirting with MDR activity but... the hemisphere is non conducive - for now.

Fwiw the Canadian offers less support for the GFS' frontal behaviors ... but what's interesting is that it does have a stronger polar high scooting E of Ontario into Quebec. It also has compromised pooling of drier air over eastern Quebec by 12z Tuesday.. But neither it, nor the Euro, have anywhere close to the same 925 mb circulation orientation - the GFS has a 10 kt NE CAD flow... the others have a 20 kt west dragon breath.

No one is being "bated" We're musing about the differences in the models -that's all...

I guess... compromise? Longer read for anyone interested: A glaring difference between these runs is the handling of several synoptic metrics over eastern Ontario thru Quebec from late Sunday through mid week. The GFS ends up with a 1026 mb polar high... replete with pooling the size of Texas of DPs in the mid to upper 30s N of Maine by Tuesday morning... The Euro does not have nearly that much sfc pressure, nor the pooling - DPs around 50 in that same area. So naturally... if the GFS is going to succeed in a 1024+ mb polar high passing through that region ( the Euro does not have) it is not only going to 925 mb a CAD jet into the area, it is going to also pull from that large region of much drier DPs and drill that into an erstwhile raining/convective debris over eastern NH/ME...and there we go. It's like the GFS is a giant A.C. processor. It's also odd how the GFS holds the hydrostats so lofty while mixing the BL down to autumnal normals by 18z Tuesday per that 06z run... It's either an exceptionally ( albeit harmless) rare result, or something's amiss The GFS is suspect to me because it is still deeply within the vegetating boreal summer landscape, below the taiga belt. Whatever processes the GFS thinks will set all that up, its not clear it is enough/how it offsets that continent/evapotran factor, enough to manifest that much dry lower troposphere over Quebec. Interesting test. This could not be more black and white between those two guidance sources.

That's a bit of an usual modeling scenario ...to have it < 96 hours out, and the operational Euro and GFS vary by 30+ F over S NH a rare circumstance.

Not to piss on anyone's parade but the "pacific warm pool," as it is become known in recent climate papers, is a largely anthropogenic feedback - attribution science revealing it is not be possible without an AGW factor. That - to me ... - isn't really the same thing as an otherwise "unique" SS stressing/distribution lending to a PDO phase state, as much as it really more like a faux +PDO. In other words, it isn't abundantly clear whether its presence really motivate the circulation mode, as opposed to it emerging because of the latter - in that order. Having said that... theoretically, a warm pool wobbling around S of the Aleut... may seem intuitive to cumulatively drive higher heights down stream, so perhaps that is a "harmonic" sort of feedback -

Yeah...was just gonna say - that product seldom seems to vary appreciably, year to year. Snowy and cold is our leitmotif - yet all I remember is 4 or perhaps 5 consecutive uninspired pieces of shit years that were not particularly cold or snowy. They're doing okay in the SW though - I guess not...

Euro has an MDR cyclone at the end of this run... ( c'mon guys - I'm tryin' to poke the hornet's nest here)

Outflow ?

The ultimate Bahama Blue pattern... Pretty please, with sugar on top... Cat 5 inject that NE of Nassau

You can hear that sucker from here..

course...the morning miasma of debris and alto gunk isn't helping... Wiz and I were talking about this factor the other day. WPC analyzed what's left the boundary as a vaguely identifiable trough from roughly d.e.m. to NJ... with said gunk straddling either side. Sun is tending to normalize the mid troposphere, as evidenced by the recent looping - so more getting through. Sites around the region are running about 2 to 3 F behind yesterday's temp, by hour, but are also 3-5 more rich in DP. It may be better than the gripe above if we broach the convective temps. They also analyze a better newer boundary along the St L seaway... but that's not slated to come quickly SE

So much for earlier detonation and slow moving flooders, huh? I don't think this - so far ...we'll see how things go over the next couple of hours - is having to do with dry beget dry and all that. I think it has more to do with these guidance holding onto the total kinematic identity of the fronts and governing mechanics too long. This on Sat and obs smacks as almost no front at all... and with it paralleling the flow, it's hard moreover to even use that as triggers. Hghts are not falling so lapse rates suck ..yet again. It's not a dry feed back thing. It's a models feeding us bullshit thing. But I'm in a bad mood so hopefully we whacked anyway to rub that in some more

Course..I grew up in the modeling of the 1980s and 1990s... With advances in the general tech arena the models may be better - so to speak... - in placing those. I mean it used to be that if the models saw one at all dangling near PSM on a D4 chart ... it invariably was through LGA by the time it verified. Full disclosure, I've at times noticed the opposite is true sometimes now, where the models are too agressive with them. Definitely that is true with the GFS. I'm just not ready to comfortably depend on that.

From what I'm seeing utilizing the sfc PP the boundary was actually farther SW per the 00z run than 06z or this one. Seems to be ticking back NE... It's weird though, because even though that may be true, this run looks more aggressive because of gradient between D.E.M. and NE Mass... It's going NE with a BD that has more weigh behind it.. interesting. My thing with BDs is that if there is one anywhere on a planet around a random star in the Andromeda Galaxy ... it ends up pinned to Atlanta Georgia despite all modeling peregrinations that argued for a warmer result... Sarcasm dully noted -

Well... if one is serious about training, has spotters and all, or it is a calculated risk to 'push' oneself - which you gotta do - some if that's gotta happen. The stuff in these memes though -

that also relates to my gripe - I feel/observe...- re the GFS having a bias to extend the horizontal coordinates. The front should not be there in the first place - or ...should be further N... But the GFS extending all the kinematics too far downstream, and ends up "needing" to generate these leading boundaries and that starts the whole thing.

Oh I've seen plenty since the "blah blah blah? Priceless!" days... Then Insta"crap" and other pap on tap became too easy and now that kind of thing is common. I've seen squatters pass out while 400 lbs straddle their shoulders bending the bar, too. Some of them are legit funny though...like the "Fail" memes with these idiots that apparently are so strong that "hey y'all look at me! I can pick tings up and pud dem down," but apparently missed out on the inherent fundamentals of gravity and the other laws of common everyday physics... end up narily escaping bodily harm. Gym failure memes abound for all! From vomit to explosive projective ass ejecta, to the softer side of 290 lbs of failed weight pinning a bench "pressure" in sleeper hold like a Roman Greco Olympian ... to someone turning up a tread mill to fast and rocking off the end after doing a face plant... you name it - Humans living inside the industrial bubble ... they are remarkably resilient in the face of what looks on the surface really should be a lot more Darwin Awards than are actually being handed out. I'm in the gym almost every day in the winter, and half in summers and I've witnessed a lot of just weird people.

If you care to read...probably not ( don't blame you - ), it isn't modeled as a BD by 00z last night. - the problem is, if one is going to do substantive analysis and expose the general population to what is really happening, these paragraphs have to be written. But as an aside, we have a contingency of user/engagement in here, that is more purely 'social-media' motivated and don't care so much for either the necessary vernacular/nomenclature, and/or are just not interested in adjectives and verbs... I think these individuals would make excellent drones in the Star Trekkian "Borg" civilization, because everything is binary served up at nano time with no actual obligation to learning anything gets in the way of instant gratification.. Anyway, the BD was more an artifact of the previous 2 or 3 cycles.

Oh..okay - lol.. Just wrote War And Peace describing why we should sell that - but yeah... your version 'bout covered it -