Typhoon Tip

wow... it's 81/75 in the foggy strata down in New Bedford. Prolly more sun getting through than the satellite would suggest

heh.. you beat me to this by 3 hours it appears. I wrote about that in my usual tl;dr way an hour ago, agreed - although, I added concepts.

I didn't even notice that huge fog/strata bank from SE CT across all of southern RI into the New Bedford region of Mass. Looking at the satellite ..that appears a part of very rich low level/warm theta-e arriving across the outer cooler shelf waters.... That whole miasma is tainting the S. Coast. Should stay east of your location, but ..that 75 DP you're putting up this hour probably hearkens to said rich air.

Heating up more proficiently in the interior than the coast... SSW flow is already tending to bend S along shore points... May have to contend with marine contamination shortly up to a interior SE Mass and certainly Boston.. But ORH and FIT are both at yesterday's readings, per timing/hr ... within 5 minutes. 86 at at 9:20 in FIT seem like 88 by 10 is doable. Same is true down in HFD/BDL although BDL just noised their way back down to 82. S wind is odd for larger heat numbers...but it is very light. There is a modest c-front approaching - we should be more SW. Maybe we're yet molting off a shallow decoupled layer just yet.

This is an extended heat wave. I'm pretty sure most sites nicked 90 ( the old 89.9 er) Monday (chk that), and maybe low 90s Tuesday ..then of course yesterday. Looking at machine interpolations, it's 91 to 97 through Sunday... so the beat goes on. I'm thinking the mid and particular late mid range the global guidance' are tending to moosh the heights too far S into what's evolved into an impressive garland around our side of the hemisphere for subtropical ridging. So vast it is getting more difficult to see the acmes embedded within, whereby the lower latitude R-wave 'roots' are situated. The 06z operational GFS is really onto this idea, with a whopping 600 dm tickling ridge max embedded in and very large 594 closed envelopment of WAR heights, partially eclipsing the MA, forcing the 588 dm contour into central NE... around D10. Notice what it does two days later... It attempts a Rosby roll-out through the west and completely demolishes that look with another of these (likely..) exaggerated +PNAP aspects that have proven to be in the 20%tile too much all season anyway. I'm just not completely sold that these westerlies are going to be so obtrusive S of the 40 N during the last week of July into the first week of August. Another hint, both the EPS and GEFs mean ..right out to 300+ hours, almost never show the 582 dm non-hydrostatic height contour as successfully plumbing S of ORD-BOS latitude, despite having vestigial +PNA signature to the overall structure - which is an interesting tandem. It's not typical to see very cool air succeed S of the 45 N at those height persistence'

Unless it's cloudy ...I've seen it 23C at 850 and 27C at the surface under clouds the whole day before.

I think he was directing that toward me I’m interested in Logan late high phenomenon and as he lives there we sort of keep track of these opportunities

Really? I thought it looked troughier again so didn’t see the need to look at anything else - heh

monitor the late high scenario too - the E wind is down to 5 mph and the hi res vis late imagery suggest the breeze boundary is slipping back E... They may sniff SW suburb farts yet -

Yup...and I'm wondering if that trough at 120 hours doesn't minor out some like the one for tomorrow did. Monday at 12z it's 22C over Logan...

MHT killed it today at 97 lots of 95's at NWS sites in general tho ... By unofficial conventionality ... we nicked 'big heat' today. But ... given to headlines validating with HI's in the higher 90s to 100 it's job well done. Not seeing any reason why don't repeat tomorrow west of 10 mi from the shores. Noticing Logan got breeze banged today... 91 is all. Maybe 93 instead of 95 tomorrow, but today should also set up tonight to have the elevated low that last night failed to get done. So may have a higher launch pad tomorrow -

the purpose of saying was more with snow fall rates being ridiculously heavy ... not necessarily in length of event. Hence "CC/Pwat" In fact, I would argue that storm motion velocity has increased ... while precipitation rates of all kind have increased. Despite the faster system translations ..the fall rates are surpassing so you end up with netting more in can -

It's funny you mentioned this ...I mean I'm in sort of snarky hyperbolic mood today anyway, but yeah - I recall some MOS products had a 110 moment in there..I thought it was some BD in antiquity skewing the 'statistical brain' of the machine numbers, but oh well here we are. But these numbers inland are hot but not impressive. I saw a lot of 95s and 97s where it's been stuck at 93 under full sun. I'll check again...

I mean ... it's crazy how it seems we've been in this one deformation band defining a winter climate signal now for 5 years... The winters that have been doing these 3 pop party style deliveries, have systemically been nearly invariant to one another in any kind of deeper comparison - they looked the same. Despite whatever polar index is doing A or ENSO is doing B or solar is doing C or the dawning of the age of Aquarius .. The only thing that has changed? the climate - It gets harder and harder to outright refute CC is more primary in forcing - which is unfortunately a ginormous black box because it's like all the 'feel' and intuition and analytics that created the 20th century wisdom for how these metrics correlate --> what that may mean for seasonality is almost unknowable. Best to just guess by trends. No matter what air, land, sea, or in combinations of these are signaling may as well throw hand: this winter will be a piece of shit high speed sheering asshole winter where one region gets a 70" deform apocalypse while everyone aggregates a -5 to -10" winter off WINDEX. After having accumulated about 310" of modeled snow storms on D8

Some interesting failures 'cooking' today - I think.. I mean verdict is still out. But Logan failed to maintain offshore forcing - they've been pipin' ESE all afternoon at 15 mph. They're in the upper 80s after making 90 by 9:15 am... That wind behavior was not really picked up ... Not sure if that's penetrating into the city limits. We are busting below MOS at FIT and BED and ASH. I mean it's fuggen hot out - don't get me wrong. But 93 is light. Uh...okay, BDL just bumped 95 ... we may see these squeeze up a 2 or 3 over the next two hours. In fact, these types of WNW dragon fart days tend to max at 5:10 or something. I wonder if the forcing kicks in out there at Logan and they bounce at 7 to 94 -

I'm on three consecutive seasons of snow fall deficits out my way. But, I guess in the grand scheme of things, you and I are probably in the same essential climate boning zone because it only takes a crow 20 minutes to fly between our sore butt empty snow holes. Hyperbole aside ... the idea that snow has increased at a seasonal tally I think belies things. The distribution of statistical occurrences - I suspect - may be more important in the discussion than the scalar seasonal mean. If we are going more 3 month periods of shits for snows... then, getting one 30" CC-PWAT enhance occurrence... another 45 days goes by and there are 3 spring blue bombs of 8-10" a pop, that will send the seasonal totals above normal ( or minimally to normal -), despite the winter being clearly plagued by fast jets and sheared shit and rain events and three 60+ F warm thaws that just did not happen years go - not nearly as frequently as they have been. This animation above is a rough and sloppy cinematic repro of the winter tones I personally have witness over the last 10 years. It's important though, because we miss either that 30, or the 3 lollypops in that gross example, and that's the deficit ball game. Realistically, that becomes more and more probability favored in warming CC Politics is perception... Pretty sure as a Sociologist you might have encountered this adage at some or the other...? just guessin. LOL. But, it matters in climate in particularly. The general bulk population only takes seriously what they see. Most of CC is insidiously buried more so by invisible metrics than it ever has/ or will be, by snow. People don't respond to urgency' when it is informatic in nature. A person responds very quickly to sensations that appeal to the 5 corporeal senses. That is just the primal engine... Then, mid way between that end of the response-spectrum expediency, ...are aspects surrounding threats that are negotiable ...such as job, economics ... the shifting tone of the GF that gives you the eerie sensation you may not be the only disco stick she's bouncin' around on (or wants to-). Then, somewhere way at the fake caring response mechanism end exists that stare gaped while trying to process a global warming freight train that is probably to incomprehensible to understand to begin with - certainly given by what the nimrod scientist's diplomacy skills of a sociopath with Autism - ...sorry wondering. I'm just saying, the distribution behavior I think is more telling. It works with the 'warming faster than anywhere else on the planet' bs too, to reconsider distribution. If CC is causing more SSE flow into the MA and NE regions off the western Atlantic g-string...yeah, the nights'll tend to balm out and "lie" about about the warming, when not many people are around to "feel" it.

Pure conjecture... but, that may presage a more substantial melting interval of open ended length - tbd. If we look back along CPC's monitoring and prognostic AO curve, We see that since April 10 ( which is the 100 day since Jan 1st along the curve above, a time in which the monitored 2-m T first biased negative...), also began the time in which the Arctic Oscillation became positive as the dominating signal. There were some negative intervals along the last 3 months since that time... yes, but they were not 'long enough' and probably were more reflective of interludes of terminating warm advection to higher latitudes that were not representative of forcing the longer term mean. Which was positive in two distinct, longer intervals: May 1 to ~June 20..then again ~June 10 to very recently... Note, +AO is correlated to lower 2-m temperatures with the domain. From these observations and then considering the prognosis for modest negative index, the end of which is unclear as it only near neutral ( abv) by D10, and then seeing the 2-m turn warm, it is not a bad immediate notion that a warm flux may be about to occur. I also would note that ... 2019's big heat even in the NW of Europe preceded a big transport of usual warmth and an enhance melt event struck Greenland. So the idea of preceding warm terminating patterns into high latitudes sort of adds to this assertion. We don't see the present NAO progs as 'tanking' like they did prior to the 2019's heat delivery ...so this heat event may not be destined the same way, either. It'll be interesting to see what takes place over the next 3 weeks.

yeeah, all that. plus, Global Warming

Wiz .... do you seriously need to ask the question, 'why so hard to get an EML in here,' or are you just hand throwing - We are the farthest from the source. That is why. That was always why. That will always BE why - for ever. Until such time as a plate displacement event ... reorders the surface of the Earth such that SNE ends up where Chicago is, we will always get the leftover stench after a 2000 mile journey span of ill-reputing air masses ...

Have only seen the operational Euro and GGEM solutions from 00z ... GGEM is as usual between 1 and 3C cooler at 850 mb ...all regions, comparing to the Euro by the time Sunday rolls around in that guidance comparison. Not sure if that actually atones for a 'cool bias' per se - or if the Euro is warm bias but it is what it is as of 00z. I haven't seen the GFS yet ...because of it's remarkable ability to construct solutions that are insidiously antithetic to my personal analysis... No but as far as the Euro, it has 23 C at 850 mb, by Sunday evening, along a Newark NJ to Portlandia Maine axis. For the general audience, the adiabat from that sigma level runs down to 38C @ 1000mb ... as the gross read. That does not take into consideration the slope temp at the very bottom, where the 2-meter low income class spouse beater temperature roasts tolerances. Taking into consideration those 'realities' ... that 38C(101.4) would likely max 104.. or even '06, if unadulterated sun and idealized wind trajectories manifest at at LGA and BOS ... (hint, think about the civility that exists between those points). Heat's fragile as a guided metric... One cirrus plume poorly timed and it's a 97 instead.. Or if the wind is very light, so much thermal restoring force causing the winds to back SSE for 10 minutes and its game over. The last time we saw 850s of that Euro modeled genera, along with the fact that it also has <50% 700, 500, and 300 mb RH ( meaning, pure sun) was in 2011, when 103 was registered at Logan. Another aspect I am noticing in the Euro and GGEM and the GFS as of late .. .they are all tending to elevated the WAR heights. In fact, this Euro run beyond D3 really tries to have the heights hemispheric nodal geopotential 'dome' over Bermuda. Meanwhile, the flow super structure is some kind of N based quasi +PNA of modest construction. You have a hot pattern below 45N being compressed by an eastern Canadian cool circulation mode. The GGEM can't resist and suppresses all heat - which is unlikely. The Euro may be too excessive. Perhaps the GFS will be a compromise.. Off to go analyze it and it's ens mean to ferret out it's myriad of interesting ways it tries to mock me without being noticed... You know your life is fulfilled with worthy- riveting substantive value when you're being trolled by a f'n forecast model -

Might be kind of bunny to test the '9 by 9' then the later, the '10 after 10' rule of thumbs for making 100. Low probability for making that number, even though the 850s would support 99.7 ha. Looks like regional lows dropped more proficiently. All the way down to 68 at BED was not expected.. For heat enthusiastic trophy foisting, that's not an elevated enough launching temp for contention - usually. They have since quickly returned to 84 from that temp by 8:35 ...which is solid early performance comeback. BOS was 77, which is better. They've bounced to 86 by 8:35 already...so they got a shot at the 9 by 9 there. It's also really our first insert into W ejected air ...and the night clearly did not have this air mass under the decoupling - so that may cause for greater diurnals/surging. Those rule of thumbs are not limitations... Anyway, machine numbers from MEX and MAV are 97'ie as race winners, so it's long odds for KBDL/KFIT/KASH/KBED wearing hunderwear

OKC Graphical Links 22:05 Max Since 0:00 (GMT) Min Since 0:00 (GMT) 24 Hour Maximum 24 Hour Minimum 2.0m Temperature 107.6° F 109.9 at 21:52 71.1 at 11:52 109.9 at 21:52 71.1 at 11:52 2.0m Dew Point 55.4° F 64.9 at 15:52 53.6 at 21:15 64.9 at 15:52 53.6 at 21:15 2.0m Wet bulb temperature 72.2° F 75.1 at 17:52 62.3 at 11:30 75.1 at 17:52 62.3 at 11:30 2.0m Relative Humidity 18% 66 at 11:52 16 at 21:05 66 at 11:52 16 at 21:05 10.0m Wind Speed 9.2 mph 13.8 at 21:10 0.0 at 19:25 13.8 at 21:10 0.0 at 19:25 10.0m Wind Direction S - - - - Pressure 28.39 in 28.51 at 5:15 28.39 at 22:05 28.51 at 5:15 28.39 at 22:05 Altimeter 29.75 in 29.88 at 5:15 29.75 at 22:05 29.88 at 5:15 29.75 at 22:05 Weather conditions Mostly Clear - - - - Visibility 10.00 miles 10.00 at 22:05 3.50 at 12:30 10.00 at 22:05 3.50 at 12:30

Hm.. kind of agree with Steve though. So long as the wind's blowin around a bit, it's taken the edge off. I mean it's hot here. 91 or 92 most NWS sites and home stations etc... over DP the same as the page number of this thread. HI's are 94-ish with that combo. So we're getting it done - Tonight could be fun in the urban triple deckers where too poor to own A.C. units. Hobbyists should get their police scanners all tuned in and ready to go for that. T1 on the NAM grid was was 25C at 12z ...so it likely was 80 at Logan through 2am so who knows what it is over the living room couch of urban blight.

Is it as accurate as Wunderground lol... j/k

It does ... probably more than merely "seems" at that. We're the exit point after a fairly vast continental expanse that is transporting a mash up of every industrial, biological and geological fart lane since the Pacific coast. An amalgam that by virtue of that journey has mixed and mutilated and pretty much destroyed any 'spike' of anomaly-ability by the time it's wafting through. One thing we hold dear and unique to us, is that we have the greatest snow fall rates/ and actual density, within 500 ft of sea level, than any other region below the 55th latitude. ...I don't include LEK meso bands. But every region has their talent. 'cept, one of these f'n times... we will get a 26C SW release dragon shot - it's happened, albeit rarely... but our return rate on that sort of thing can be half a lifetime. My curiosity: what would 'hot Saturday' Aug 1975 look like now.